It is game week in Evanston, Illinois, and as promised, I have my season prediction. But first some news and notes.
To begin, Teddy Greenstein gives his season preview. Like the Cats themselves, the story focuses on the Bowl Game drought, and more importantly the desire to get back to the Rose Bowl. I wonder whether all of the focus on winning a Bowl Game is a good goal for such a relatively young team. Yes, focus on the Rose Bowl, which is a tangible goal that can be measured in wins and losses during the season. But concentrating on winning a game that is not yet on the schedule (and may be a monumental mismatch) is not healthy at this point in the season. Teddy does not give a win-loss prediction in his preview.
It is no secret that for the Wildcats to succeed this year, the running game needs to be better. Tina Akouris reports on the running backs efforts to make this happen in the Sun Times today. Arby Fields is back to full strength, although had on the red “no hits” jersey in practice on Monday. The official “two-deep” depth chart lists Fields, along with Schmidt and Simmons as co-starters for Saturday. Fitz suggests that this is a product of the forecasted humidity and the Vandy linebacker corps more than anything else. The Commodore’s LBs have always been a strength in Nashville and will be a good test for the Cats’ revamped running game.
The counterpart to the Cats’ tailback trio is the veteran offensive line which returns all five starters from 2009. Skip Myslenski reports on the positive mental attitude of the offensive line. “Hog Pride” as the players call it. There is depth at this position as well, which should help in the heat and humidity on Saturday night.
On the other side of the ball, Lindsay Willhite breaks down the Wildcat defensive line and its life after Corey Wootton. The depth of this group will really help in late-season games. If they can stay healthy, this group can really put pressure on opposing QBs and allow our linebackers to stop the run.
In case you missed it, the Wrigley Field game has been dubbed the Allstate Wrigleyville Classic. While I am not terribly excited about the name, or the corporate sponsorship in general, the publicity will be nice. It appears that ticket sales for this game are pointing towards a sellout, which is great news, considering that this was a concern when the game was announced. Also, the stats on season ticket sales continue to climb and impress. The team’s success, along with the marketing push, appears to be accomplishing goals.
Shocking. Absolutely shocking. The Keg of Evanston has been named the #9 Best College Bar in America.
Also, Congrats to Luke Donald for making the Ryder Cup team. He was named a Captains selection on Sunday, being picked over the likes of Paul Casey and Justin Rose. Unfortunately, Luke, I will not be able to bring myself to root you on. But we wish you continued good success in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. For those who missed it, Luke shot an amazing 28 on the front nine on Sunday.
PREDICTION
After reviewing the players and the opponents; reading about camp standouts and pesky injuries; hearing the coaches' banter and the pundits' retorts; it is finally time for football. And while the "preseason prediction" is often more of a rite of autumn than any genuine practice of prognostication; it is part of the fabric of the game, and so I will participate.
I have a much different view of this team than when I embarked on this journey three months ago. I saw 13 returning starters and expected a veteran team; only to find that only six seniors will be part of the starting 22. This young team is also much deeper than I had anticipated. There are many backups on the two-deep that have seen playing time. While this bodes well for 2011, it will be the ability of leaders to emerge that will dictate the success of this squad in 2010.
One of the greatest strengths of this NU team is its balance. The majority of the teams on the Cats schedule have glaring weaknesses on one side of the ball. This will give NU a decided advantage in these games.
The traditionally successful programs start with the O line and the front seven on D -- and work the rest of the pieces around that base. Fitz and his staff are building the team in this model and this is where it pays off.
Three Sure Things:
The running game will be better. With a returning O line and a new commitment to the running game, the Cats should be able to take enough pressure off of Persa that he will be able to evolve at an appropriate pace. They will still struggle against the better run defenses -- but it will be much more of a factor in '10.
The D line will control games. Losing Corey Wootton was a major loss, but there is a lot of skill and experience in the front four. So much so that the Cats seem to have scrapped the idea of using a 3-4 this year because of the depth at D Tackle. This will be a major plus as the season drags on. A deep rotation on the D line will win some games in the trenches.
Demos will be vindicated. Remember that Demos won two games for the Cats last season with last second kicks. And while his brutal day in Tampa made National news, true fans know how valuable he was. He did not miss a FG (other than a blocked kick) until the Illinois game last season. And recall that the Cats are only five years removed from holding their breath on extra points. Stefan will be able to keep the Cats in close games, and may even be called upon to won a big one for them. An All-Conference award would be a nice finish to his career at NU.
Three big question marks:
Obviously Persa is the biggest question of all. Everything that comes out of camp says that he is in the same position and Kafka and makes the comparison. And I do not doubt the facts. But the fact is that Dan Persa is not Mike Kafka and he is going to be better at some things and worse at others. The limited film that I have seen shows that he throws a good out, corner, and hitch. But the offense depends on the slant and the cross, not to mention the post. Persa needs to get the confidence to throw over the middle of the field. Over time the Wildcat spread has proven to be somewhat of a system offense, with many QBs able to succeed. Whether Dan can continue that legacy remains to be seen.
Can the DBs grow up quickly? NU graduated the services of McManis, Smith, and Phillips; so Jordan Mabin will need to lead this group forward. And let's be honest, while last year’s DBs were undoubtedly playmakers, they also gave up the big play as well. The question remains whether this young crop can contain Big Ten WRs and allow the front seven to strut their stuff. Mabin was one of the most improved players from between the Wisconsin game and the Outback Bowl and appears ready to take the reins. The injury to David Arnold will be problematic, especially if it lingers into the conference schedule. The offense should be decent, but not good enough to win a bunch of track meets. This unit is key.
Can Fitz temper expectations? NU has had a lot of good things said about its program in the last eight months. Maybe more so than any time in recent history. Even after the '95 season, the Cats were still a novelty, and not a program on the rise -- as they are cast by the media today. The problem is, I do not know that this team is good enough to win more games than they won last year, they might not win a bowl, and they may disappoint some people. Fitz's greatest challenge this season will be keeping the bus moving forward. Minor disappointments are not program killers, small setbacks cannot be allowed to destroy this team. Fitz must keep the team, the fans, the recruits, and most of all, himself, on the same track moving forward. In all reality this team is built for a Big Ten Championship run in 2011. It just needs to keep the positive momentum simmering until then.
In the final analysis, I think this is another 8-4 team. I can see a 6-0 start, but the Cats will lose 4 in the second half, including three of the last four. This finish will hurt Bowl placement.
I think the best case scenario is 10-2 with losses to PSU and Wisconsin, and a return to Florida, either in the Capital One, Outback, or Gator Bowl.
Worst case is 6-6. Going 2-6 in the conference would tie for Fitz's worst performance, and he would find that unacceptable. But the youth on this team may show their true colors in the end.
As for where the Cats finish among the rest of the conference, I will take a look at that tomorrow.
Go Cats.
johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/johnknublog
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com/
About EVR
- Expect Victory Right
- "Expect Victory" is the well known battle cry of the Gary Barnett era Wildcats; a mantra continued today by Coach Fitz. "Victory Right" is, of course, the most recognizable single play in Northwestern Football history; capping off a 21-point comeback at Minnesota in 2000. "Expect Victory Right" is what Northwesten fans have become accustomed to as followers of the Cardiac Cats; another Victory Right game could happen any given saturday. It is also a nod to how Coach Fitz is dedicated to winning the "Right" way.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
Game-by-Game preview: Part III
Before the exciting finale of the game-by-game preview, some news and notes.
Wednesday night the Big Ten Network aired its season preview of the Wildcats. It was fun to watch the boys in action again. The BTN crew had both good and bad things to say about the Cats and left with a feeling that NU is young but deep. This is not necessarily bad for 2010; and very good for 2011. I have to admit that I was a little disheartened by Fitz’s comments, however. He clearly was not pleased with the practice that had just occurred and his comments were filled with lines like “I’m glad we are not playing this Saturday.” His presentation was far from the polished and positive message that NU fans are used to, and he did not finish with his trademark “Go Cats”. Let’s hope that it was just one bad day at practice and that this is not indicative of his feelings for the season.
Speaking of Camp Kenosha Hail to Purple posted some nice shots from last Saturday’s scrimmage. Enjoy. Best news out of Camp Kenosha, no new injuries to report. While Drake Dunsmore still isn’t up to full speed, he appears to just be resting from his surgery, rather than nursing an injury. No doubt he will be ready for Nashville.
One of the biggest stories out of Wildcat camp has been the emergence of Venric Mark. It is pretty clear that this true freshman will be returning punts and probably kicks right out of the gun, which is very impressive. If you have seen video of this guy, he is something special. And if Fitz is ready to put his special team’s coach cred on the line with this 18-year-old, I’m all for it. The Trib did a feature story this week on (full name) Venric Emeka-Wococha Mark. It will be nice to have a player that other teams have to hold their breath for.
While we’re talking about young guys, no new news on the recruiting front, but a few items of note. NU is among the finalists for four-star athlete Miles Shuler. Lake the Posts is right, even if the Cats do not score this stud, it says something about the program that NU is in the running. Also, ESPN says that while NU is nowhere near a top-25 recruiting class yet, the Cats are "on the cusp."
The Wildcats spent a special day on Monday that the Great Lakes Naval Facility. Among other responsibilities, this base is boot camp for all new Navy recruits. I’ve been to a pass-in-review (boot camp graduation) at Great Lakes and it is quite a place. These are our boys and it is nice to give them a piece of home. Hopefully some of our sailors will find their way to Ryan Field on their free weekends in the fall. Always nice to have some new fans. Tina Akouris reports on Monday's practice for the Sun Times.
A little humor before getting into the final installment of the season preview. First, be careful on the roads when heading down to Nashville next weekend, apparently, Sippin On Purple just got his driver’s license. Also, if you are interested in kicking Michigan while they are down, check out this fan site, which has converted itself into a Northwestern fan site. While humorous, it is particularly critical of some of the quirks about NU. Sometimes the truth hurts, but not as much as it hurts to be a Wolverine right now.
Weeks 9-12: Last year, NU entered these four games at 5-3 and shocked everyone by emerging 8-4 – and but for Kafka’s injury, may have been 9-3. It will take a good start to the season for these four games to be meaningful, as a 5-3 record might not cut it this year. Playing three teams in the preseason top 15 is never what I would call “fun.” But if they can enter this difficult stretch with some momentum at 6-2 or 7-1, this could be a very exciting November for the Cats. Once again, thanks to Rivals.com for the depth chart information.
Penn State: In 2009, the difference between the Cats and the Nittany Lions was NU’s quarterback situation. The game was basically even until Mike Kafka went down with an injury. The NU offense was anemic under an inexperienced Dan Persa, and in the fourth quarter, the floodgates were opened. The difference between these teams may again be the home team’s quarterback situation. Penn State currently has true sophomore Kevin Newsome slated to run the offense, but true Freshman Robert Bolden is threatening. Either way, there will be a youthful leader to this veteran offense, which will start nine seniors, including all-everything tailback Evan Royster. The young QB, whoever it is, will need to be able to lead his elders. If he falls into place, this is a dangerous offense. If not, the Cats defense should be able to pounce and cause problems all day.
On defense, Penn State is equally as experienced. The front seven is made up of six seniors and a junior, and their linebacker corps of Nate Stupar, Bani Gbadyu, and Chris Colasanti is vintage Penn State. The one weakness in the defense is its corners. If NU can protect Persa, the quick passing game may open the door for some nice things; especially as the Cats multiple receiver sets will bring more youth on to the field.
For the first time in 2010, the Cats youth will truly be tested against this veteran team. Ideally, with eight games under their belt, NU will have grown up into a powerful team, but it will have its hands full in Happy Valley, where the Cats have only won once.
Iowa: Northwestern vs. Iowa has become must-see TV for Big Ten fans. This is a series of constant surprises, upsets, and great defensive games. In three of the last four NU-Iowa games, neither team eclipsed 20 points. Iowa’s offense is lead again by Ricky Stanzi, who will have two great receivers to pitch to in Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. But the offensive line is a step back from what Iowa is used to, especially at the tackle position. NU’s defensive ends should be able to cause some problems here for Stanzi. Iowa’s running back situation is a mess, but this is a team that seems to always find someone to carry the load. Right now that man is Adam Robinson, sophomore. When Iowa has the ball, expect the push and pull battle that you’ve come to expect in this game – and, as usual, turnovers should rule the day.
On the defensive line, Iowa is downright scary. Three of their four down lineman are all-conference material, lead by Adrian Clayborn. But like Penn State, Iowa is a little soft at corner. NU won’t have many chances, but if Persa can take advantage of the chances he’s given, NU can score a few points on this squad. Iowa’s typically stout linebackers and safeties should be able to stuff any efforts at an NU running attack.
Iowa sees this as a revenge game. NU sees Iowa as a gateway to better things. This is going to be another smash-mouth affair. Mark your calendar for November 13.
Illinois: The Illini are a program on life support right now. Over the past 15 years, Illinois have had a handful of really good seasons, and a sack full of bad ones. Their young offense will do nothing to improve this track record. Illinois’’ current two-deep has them starting 5 sophomores and 4 freshmen – including true Frosh Nathan Scheelhaase at QB and two freshmen on the Offensive Line. The veteran “leader” of this offense is Junior wide-out Jarred Fayson, who caught 16 passes last year. NU’s defense, after a string of games against talented offenses will be digging in their heels for this one. These eleven may find a way to gel by November 20, but if not, Wrigley will be rocking in favor of the Wildcat defense.
Illinois’ defense is a bit of a mixed bag. There is some strong senior leadership, especially on the D-line; and some talented freshmen expected to play immediately. But a true freshman at corner in Terry Hawthorne is never a good sign, and the Illini will have trouble against multiple receiver sets. Similarly, Illinois does not have anyone who really can match up with Dunsmore – he should have a field day. NU’s offense has a lot of pieces that will be back for 2011; this game will be the preview of what to expect in the future.
There are a lot of factors that go into this game. NU has dominated this rivalry since 1995. NU will (hopefully) be playing for bowl positioning, while Illinois may be playing for their coaches’ jobs. The Wrigley experience, along with the last afternoon November game, will make this a special atmosphere for everyone. I all reality though, there is not a greater mismatch on NU’s Big Ten schedule.
Wisconsin: Last season, NU beat a very good Wisconsin team in Evanston. The result was a surprising, but deserved, selection to the Outback Bowl over the far more marketable Badgers. It is very likely that these two will be in a similar position again, as Wisconsin may not yet be at the level of OSU and Iowa just yet. Wisconsin’s offense is lead by the best One-Two punch in the conference. John Clay is one of the best backs in the nation and has the potential to be a Heisman finalist if Wisconsin can have a special season. Scott Tolzien is probably the most complete QB in the league. It will take 11 weeks for the Wildcat D to prepare for these guys. Nick Toon leads a solid receiving corps that will give NU’s defensive backs fits. And they bring Lance Kendricks, the John Mackey award favorite at TE, to the table as well. The O Line is a little young for what fans have frown to expect from Wisconsin. NU’s D-Line against the front five of the Badgers could be the difference in a close game.
The Badgers D-Line has two new starters, including redshirt freshman Jordan Kohout. If the NU running game ever gels, this could be a nice mismatch for this certainly cold November afternoon. Wisconsin’s linebackers and defensive backs are experienced and solid. Don’t expect NU to hang 30+ points on these guys this year. This is another game where the Cats will have to rely on Drake Dunsmore to create mismatches to allow the offense to function.
Hands down, this is a tough way to finish the season. Wisconsin is a very good team, and the clear #3 in the Big Ten. Playing in Camp Randall on the unfamiliar Saturday after Thanksgiving will be a challenging experience for the Cats. Given Wisconsin’s improved defense, NU will have to stop Tolzien-Clay and Co. in order to keep this one close.
Outlook: No doubt, there are very few teams in the country with a closing four games like NUs – especially is it plays out like the season rankings predict. But if NU establishes itself as a strong competitor through October, this could be one of the most exciting Novembers in program history.
4-0: This is Mission Impossible. Probably means the team is good enough for 12-0 or 11-1. 2% chance of 4-0.
3-1: Replicating last year will be tough, especially given that the rest of the conference is on notice, finally. 13%
2-2: Historically, the Cats will win one of these games in an “upset”; of course historically, the Cats will lose a non-con game too. 35%
1-3: Realistically, it probably comes down to winning in Happy Valley. And the Cats simply have more question marks than the Lions. 45%
0-4: Even though Illinois is a mismatch on paper, it is a rivalry game and many things can happen by November. 5%
Final predictions begin next week!
johnknublog@gmail.com
Go Cats.
Wednesday night the Big Ten Network aired its season preview of the Wildcats. It was fun to watch the boys in action again. The BTN crew had both good and bad things to say about the Cats and left with a feeling that NU is young but deep. This is not necessarily bad for 2010; and very good for 2011. I have to admit that I was a little disheartened by Fitz’s comments, however. He clearly was not pleased with the practice that had just occurred and his comments were filled with lines like “I’m glad we are not playing this Saturday.” His presentation was far from the polished and positive message that NU fans are used to, and he did not finish with his trademark “Go Cats”. Let’s hope that it was just one bad day at practice and that this is not indicative of his feelings for the season.
Speaking of Camp Kenosha Hail to Purple posted some nice shots from last Saturday’s scrimmage. Enjoy. Best news out of Camp Kenosha, no new injuries to report. While Drake Dunsmore still isn’t up to full speed, he appears to just be resting from his surgery, rather than nursing an injury. No doubt he will be ready for Nashville.
One of the biggest stories out of Wildcat camp has been the emergence of Venric Mark. It is pretty clear that this true freshman will be returning punts and probably kicks right out of the gun, which is very impressive. If you have seen video of this guy, he is something special. And if Fitz is ready to put his special team’s coach cred on the line with this 18-year-old, I’m all for it. The Trib did a feature story this week on (full name) Venric Emeka-Wococha Mark. It will be nice to have a player that other teams have to hold their breath for.
While we’re talking about young guys, no new news on the recruiting front, but a few items of note. NU is among the finalists for four-star athlete Miles Shuler. Lake the Posts is right, even if the Cats do not score this stud, it says something about the program that NU is in the running. Also, ESPN says that while NU is nowhere near a top-25 recruiting class yet, the Cats are "on the cusp."
The Wildcats spent a special day on Monday that the Great Lakes Naval Facility. Among other responsibilities, this base is boot camp for all new Navy recruits. I’ve been to a pass-in-review (boot camp graduation) at Great Lakes and it is quite a place. These are our boys and it is nice to give them a piece of home. Hopefully some of our sailors will find their way to Ryan Field on their free weekends in the fall. Always nice to have some new fans. Tina Akouris reports on Monday's practice for the Sun Times.
A little humor before getting into the final installment of the season preview. First, be careful on the roads when heading down to Nashville next weekend, apparently, Sippin On Purple just got his driver’s license. Also, if you are interested in kicking Michigan while they are down, check out this fan site, which has converted itself into a Northwestern fan site. While humorous, it is particularly critical of some of the quirks about NU. Sometimes the truth hurts, but not as much as it hurts to be a Wolverine right now.
Weeks 9-12: Last year, NU entered these four games at 5-3 and shocked everyone by emerging 8-4 – and but for Kafka’s injury, may have been 9-3. It will take a good start to the season for these four games to be meaningful, as a 5-3 record might not cut it this year. Playing three teams in the preseason top 15 is never what I would call “fun.” But if they can enter this difficult stretch with some momentum at 6-2 or 7-1, this could be a very exciting November for the Cats. Once again, thanks to Rivals.com for the depth chart information.
Penn State: In 2009, the difference between the Cats and the Nittany Lions was NU’s quarterback situation. The game was basically even until Mike Kafka went down with an injury. The NU offense was anemic under an inexperienced Dan Persa, and in the fourth quarter, the floodgates were opened. The difference between these teams may again be the home team’s quarterback situation. Penn State currently has true sophomore Kevin Newsome slated to run the offense, but true Freshman Robert Bolden is threatening. Either way, there will be a youthful leader to this veteran offense, which will start nine seniors, including all-everything tailback Evan Royster. The young QB, whoever it is, will need to be able to lead his elders. If he falls into place, this is a dangerous offense. If not, the Cats defense should be able to pounce and cause problems all day.
On defense, Penn State is equally as experienced. The front seven is made up of six seniors and a junior, and their linebacker corps of Nate Stupar, Bani Gbadyu, and Chris Colasanti is vintage Penn State. The one weakness in the defense is its corners. If NU can protect Persa, the quick passing game may open the door for some nice things; especially as the Cats multiple receiver sets will bring more youth on to the field.
For the first time in 2010, the Cats youth will truly be tested against this veteran team. Ideally, with eight games under their belt, NU will have grown up into a powerful team, but it will have its hands full in Happy Valley, where the Cats have only won once.
Iowa: Northwestern vs. Iowa has become must-see TV for Big Ten fans. This is a series of constant surprises, upsets, and great defensive games. In three of the last four NU-Iowa games, neither team eclipsed 20 points. Iowa’s offense is lead again by Ricky Stanzi, who will have two great receivers to pitch to in Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. But the offensive line is a step back from what Iowa is used to, especially at the tackle position. NU’s defensive ends should be able to cause some problems here for Stanzi. Iowa’s running back situation is a mess, but this is a team that seems to always find someone to carry the load. Right now that man is Adam Robinson, sophomore. When Iowa has the ball, expect the push and pull battle that you’ve come to expect in this game – and, as usual, turnovers should rule the day.
On the defensive line, Iowa is downright scary. Three of their four down lineman are all-conference material, lead by Adrian Clayborn. But like Penn State, Iowa is a little soft at corner. NU won’t have many chances, but if Persa can take advantage of the chances he’s given, NU can score a few points on this squad. Iowa’s typically stout linebackers and safeties should be able to stuff any efforts at an NU running attack.
Iowa sees this as a revenge game. NU sees Iowa as a gateway to better things. This is going to be another smash-mouth affair. Mark your calendar for November 13.
Illinois: The Illini are a program on life support right now. Over the past 15 years, Illinois have had a handful of really good seasons, and a sack full of bad ones. Their young offense will do nothing to improve this track record. Illinois’’ current two-deep has them starting 5 sophomores and 4 freshmen – including true Frosh Nathan Scheelhaase at QB and two freshmen on the Offensive Line. The veteran “leader” of this offense is Junior wide-out Jarred Fayson, who caught 16 passes last year. NU’s defense, after a string of games against talented offenses will be digging in their heels for this one. These eleven may find a way to gel by November 20, but if not, Wrigley will be rocking in favor of the Wildcat defense.
Illinois’ defense is a bit of a mixed bag. There is some strong senior leadership, especially on the D-line; and some talented freshmen expected to play immediately. But a true freshman at corner in Terry Hawthorne is never a good sign, and the Illini will have trouble against multiple receiver sets. Similarly, Illinois does not have anyone who really can match up with Dunsmore – he should have a field day. NU’s offense has a lot of pieces that will be back for 2011; this game will be the preview of what to expect in the future.
There are a lot of factors that go into this game. NU has dominated this rivalry since 1995. NU will (hopefully) be playing for bowl positioning, while Illinois may be playing for their coaches’ jobs. The Wrigley experience, along with the last afternoon November game, will make this a special atmosphere for everyone. I all reality though, there is not a greater mismatch on NU’s Big Ten schedule.
Wisconsin: Last season, NU beat a very good Wisconsin team in Evanston. The result was a surprising, but deserved, selection to the Outback Bowl over the far more marketable Badgers. It is very likely that these two will be in a similar position again, as Wisconsin may not yet be at the level of OSU and Iowa just yet. Wisconsin’s offense is lead by the best One-Two punch in the conference. John Clay is one of the best backs in the nation and has the potential to be a Heisman finalist if Wisconsin can have a special season. Scott Tolzien is probably the most complete QB in the league. It will take 11 weeks for the Wildcat D to prepare for these guys. Nick Toon leads a solid receiving corps that will give NU’s defensive backs fits. And they bring Lance Kendricks, the John Mackey award favorite at TE, to the table as well. The O Line is a little young for what fans have frown to expect from Wisconsin. NU’s D-Line against the front five of the Badgers could be the difference in a close game.
The Badgers D-Line has two new starters, including redshirt freshman Jordan Kohout. If the NU running game ever gels, this could be a nice mismatch for this certainly cold November afternoon. Wisconsin’s linebackers and defensive backs are experienced and solid. Don’t expect NU to hang 30+ points on these guys this year. This is another game where the Cats will have to rely on Drake Dunsmore to create mismatches to allow the offense to function.
Hands down, this is a tough way to finish the season. Wisconsin is a very good team, and the clear #3 in the Big Ten. Playing in Camp Randall on the unfamiliar Saturday after Thanksgiving will be a challenging experience for the Cats. Given Wisconsin’s improved defense, NU will have to stop Tolzien-Clay and Co. in order to keep this one close.
Outlook: No doubt, there are very few teams in the country with a closing four games like NUs – especially is it plays out like the season rankings predict. But if NU establishes itself as a strong competitor through October, this could be one of the most exciting Novembers in program history.
4-0: This is Mission Impossible. Probably means the team is good enough for 12-0 or 11-1. 2% chance of 4-0.
3-1: Replicating last year will be tough, especially given that the rest of the conference is on notice, finally. 13%
2-2: Historically, the Cats will win one of these games in an “upset”; of course historically, the Cats will lose a non-con game too. 35%
1-3: Realistically, it probably comes down to winning in Happy Valley. And the Cats simply have more question marks than the Lions. 45%
0-4: Even though Illinois is a mismatch on paper, it is a rivalry game and many things can happen by November. 5%
Final predictions begin next week!
johnknublog@gmail.com
Go Cats.
Game-by-Game preview: Part II
The Northwestern Wildcats wrapped up Camp Kenosha on Saturday with a spirited scrimmage, which unfortunately did not feature many of the starters. What it did highlight was NU’s depth and the future of the program. The fact that Fitz made this personnel decision for the scrimmage is a sign of where he has brought this program. First, the team indeed has the depth to display a worthwhile scrimmage. Second, the scrimmage is open to the public and he is forward thinking enough to not give anything away. Third, Fitz has seen what he needs to see out of the starting 22 and wanted to see what the younger guys can do.
The Cats emerged from their annual trip to Kenosha relatively injury free. Arby Fields had been described as “dinged up” but should be ready to start the opened in Nashville. Fitz has opined that Arby will be back to full speed by the end of this week. There is still no timetable on the injuries to David Arnold or Roderick Goodlow. The Cats will try to stay injury free during one more week of summer camp, now, before beginning a regular schedule of “game week” practice next week. Read Skip Myslensky's review of Camp Kenosha on nusports.com.
Games five-eight: A Critical Juncture
A good start is important, and the toughest four games are at the end. But there is no question that the most important four games of the season come in October – at least when determining whether this season will be a success in the eyes of the program and the fans. All four are games that the Cats have had problems with in the last few years. At least three of them are expected by the pundits to improve upon their breakthrough seasons in 2009. But this stretch is critical to separate Bowl Eligibility from January Football. In short, last year, NU escaped this stretch at 5-3 and had to knock off undefeated Iowa and Wisconsin to get to the Outback Bowl. It would be nice to not have to rely on those wins in 2010. Thanks to Rivals.com for the depth chart info.
Minnesota: NU makes its first trip to Minnesota’s new outdoor stadium on October 2. Minnesota took a bit of a step backwards last year and the Cats’ loss to the Gophers in 2009 was considered by many to be a “bad” loss, especially at home. The key to Minnesota’s season is whether its offense can find its 2008 form. Adam Weber took a major step backwards last year, and his all-everything WR Eric Decker will no longer be a target. The Gophers’ O-Line has a lot of experience and four seniors, which should be the strength of the offense. The Gophers open with three cupcakes and a little team from Los Angeles, so they will both have time to gel and be battle-tested before the NU game.
NU, barring injury, should have its offense figured out by this game. This should help against a defense that, while experienced, has not demonstrated a great deal of ability to stop teams. That said, every starter on the Minnesota defensive depth chart is a senior. Should be a battle. On defense, the Cats should be able to handle Weber’s attack, but if Minnesota can get the running game going, it could spell trouble.
NU should be favored to win this game, but it will certainly not be easy. This senior-laden team will be playing with a lot of pride.
Purdue: NU plays its third night game of the season under the lights against Purdue. This has the potential to be a marquee matchup in the Big Ten as both teams could enter the game undefeated. Purdue comes in off a bye week, which is always trouble. Not to mention the fact that NU has not exactly faired well in home night games. Robert Marve is the new kid on the block at QB, but he is apparently very talented and quick to improvise. He will need it, as the Purdue offensive line is relatively young and inexperienced. But if the NU front seven cannot get pressure on Marve, and he has time to get it to his stud receivers, NU’s corners will be tested all day. The Kevin Smith – Jordan Mabin battle will be one to watch all day.
Purdue’s defense, never a strength of theirs, takes a step backwards this year as they have a lot of new faces and inexperience on this side of the ball. Purdue looks to be starting five defenders who are either sophomores or freshmen. NU’s veteran offense should be in full form by week six. This could either be a high-scoring affair for both teams, or a blowout by NU, but the Cats should not have trouble scoring points against this bunch.
If one thing can be said about the NU-Purdue match-ups over the years, the best team usually wins. In a series with very few upsets, the winner of this game should carry a lot of confidence moving into the second half of the season.
Michigan State: NU takes a much-needed week off before the homecoming game against MSU. The Cats have had a great deal of success in homecoming games over the last fifteen years. And the game against the Spartans is always entertaining. Kirk Cousins returns as the leader of this offense, albeit without some of his primary weapons that tore apart the Cats in the ’08 and ’09 affairs. Three seniors on the O-Line should be able to make up for the youth at the guard position. With the exception of Larry Caper, there are many new faces that we will all learn about this season. This match-up against the Wildcat defense will be fun to watch. The NU linebackers could be a key to this game by holding Caper in check.
But everyone knows that the strength of the MSU team is the defensive side of the ball, and especially Big Ten Player of the Year Greg Jones. Jones has the ability to absolutely terrorize an offense. And if the Cats have not figured out the running game by week seven, Jones will only add to these problems. With that said, Sparty starts three sophomores on the D-Line, so Persa should have some time to throw. If he can find the mismatch against sophomore CB Johnny Adams, or catch one of the smaller defenders covering Dunsmore, the passing game should have some successes here.
Clearly, this will be NU’s toughest opponent to date. While there are some holes, MSU will have a lot of time before October 23 to figure them out. This will be a battle.
Indiana: Indiana is the sexy team this year to have a Big Ten breakout. It also has revenge on its mind after blowing a 25-point lead in 2009. Add this to the potential for a night game on Halloween weekend, and Bloomington will be rocking for this game. But I do not know that I am drinking the Indiana Kool-Aid just yet. Ben Chappell’s Show returns with Darius Willis and Tandon Doss, who dismantled the NU defense in the first 20 minutes last season. But the offensive line is a shell of its 2009 form, starting two sophomores and a frosh. Chappell may not have the time that he enjoyed last year and may have to rely on his legs a lot more than the team wants.
On defense, the front seven is young and inexperienced. Runs, short passes, and screens should eat these guys alive. The defensive backs are talented veterans, but cannot be baited too much into helping out. Persa should be a well-oiled machine by then, and could provide a command performance here.
Do not get me wrong, I like what the program at IU has done over the last few years. I spent 3 years in Bloomington, and the administration has finally managed to make football somewhat relevant. But this is not the year to be optimistic, as there is just too much youth in key positions.
Outlook: How important is this stretch of games? In 2009, the Cats were 4-3 and down 28-3 against Indiana – in grave danger of going 1-3 in this stretch. NU mounted a fierce comeback and ended up playing on New Years Day. In 2008, an upset loss to Indiana prevented NU from a 10-win season and a place on New Years Day; but a last-second win against Minnesota put them right back on track. There is no reason to believe that this year will be any different.
4-0: This is a very difficult stretch. Possible, but not likely. 8% chance of 4-0.
3-1: Hard to point to which game would be the one loss. This would lead to a very impressive 7-1 start. 45%
2-2: Would make it hard to get back to eight wins here, but a likely result given the schedule. 35%
1-3: If the Cats are not on track offensively by the Minnesota game, it will be a long October (and a longer November). 10%
0-4: Scary thing is, I can envision scenarios where this is possible. 2%
As the season draws near, here is my schedule for the next two weeks:
Friday August 27: Camp wrap-up; preview of games 9-12
Tuesday August 31: Final predictions of NU season
Wednesday September 1: First edition of Big Ten Wednesday; Big Ten preview.
Thursday September 2: National Preview
Friday September 3: First edition of Gameday Preview
Sunday September 5: First edition of Sunday Morning Superback
Questions, Comments? johnknublog@gmail.com
Go Cats!
The Cats emerged from their annual trip to Kenosha relatively injury free. Arby Fields had been described as “dinged up” but should be ready to start the opened in Nashville. Fitz has opined that Arby will be back to full speed by the end of this week. There is still no timetable on the injuries to David Arnold or Roderick Goodlow. The Cats will try to stay injury free during one more week of summer camp, now, before beginning a regular schedule of “game week” practice next week. Read Skip Myslensky's review of Camp Kenosha on nusports.com.
Games five-eight: A Critical Juncture
A good start is important, and the toughest four games are at the end. But there is no question that the most important four games of the season come in October – at least when determining whether this season will be a success in the eyes of the program and the fans. All four are games that the Cats have had problems with in the last few years. At least three of them are expected by the pundits to improve upon their breakthrough seasons in 2009. But this stretch is critical to separate Bowl Eligibility from January Football. In short, last year, NU escaped this stretch at 5-3 and had to knock off undefeated Iowa and Wisconsin to get to the Outback Bowl. It would be nice to not have to rely on those wins in 2010. Thanks to Rivals.com for the depth chart info.
Minnesota: NU makes its first trip to Minnesota’s new outdoor stadium on October 2. Minnesota took a bit of a step backwards last year and the Cats’ loss to the Gophers in 2009 was considered by many to be a “bad” loss, especially at home. The key to Minnesota’s season is whether its offense can find its 2008 form. Adam Weber took a major step backwards last year, and his all-everything WR Eric Decker will no longer be a target. The Gophers’ O-Line has a lot of experience and four seniors, which should be the strength of the offense. The Gophers open with three cupcakes and a little team from Los Angeles, so they will both have time to gel and be battle-tested before the NU game.
NU, barring injury, should have its offense figured out by this game. This should help against a defense that, while experienced, has not demonstrated a great deal of ability to stop teams. That said, every starter on the Minnesota defensive depth chart is a senior. Should be a battle. On defense, the Cats should be able to handle Weber’s attack, but if Minnesota can get the running game going, it could spell trouble.
NU should be favored to win this game, but it will certainly not be easy. This senior-laden team will be playing with a lot of pride.
Purdue: NU plays its third night game of the season under the lights against Purdue. This has the potential to be a marquee matchup in the Big Ten as both teams could enter the game undefeated. Purdue comes in off a bye week, which is always trouble. Not to mention the fact that NU has not exactly faired well in home night games. Robert Marve is the new kid on the block at QB, but he is apparently very talented and quick to improvise. He will need it, as the Purdue offensive line is relatively young and inexperienced. But if the NU front seven cannot get pressure on Marve, and he has time to get it to his stud receivers, NU’s corners will be tested all day. The Kevin Smith – Jordan Mabin battle will be one to watch all day.
Purdue’s defense, never a strength of theirs, takes a step backwards this year as they have a lot of new faces and inexperience on this side of the ball. Purdue looks to be starting five defenders who are either sophomores or freshmen. NU’s veteran offense should be in full form by week six. This could either be a high-scoring affair for both teams, or a blowout by NU, but the Cats should not have trouble scoring points against this bunch.
If one thing can be said about the NU-Purdue match-ups over the years, the best team usually wins. In a series with very few upsets, the winner of this game should carry a lot of confidence moving into the second half of the season.
Michigan State: NU takes a much-needed week off before the homecoming game against MSU. The Cats have had a great deal of success in homecoming games over the last fifteen years. And the game against the Spartans is always entertaining. Kirk Cousins returns as the leader of this offense, albeit without some of his primary weapons that tore apart the Cats in the ’08 and ’09 affairs. Three seniors on the O-Line should be able to make up for the youth at the guard position. With the exception of Larry Caper, there are many new faces that we will all learn about this season. This match-up against the Wildcat defense will be fun to watch. The NU linebackers could be a key to this game by holding Caper in check.
But everyone knows that the strength of the MSU team is the defensive side of the ball, and especially Big Ten Player of the Year Greg Jones. Jones has the ability to absolutely terrorize an offense. And if the Cats have not figured out the running game by week seven, Jones will only add to these problems. With that said, Sparty starts three sophomores on the D-Line, so Persa should have some time to throw. If he can find the mismatch against sophomore CB Johnny Adams, or catch one of the smaller defenders covering Dunsmore, the passing game should have some successes here.
Clearly, this will be NU’s toughest opponent to date. While there are some holes, MSU will have a lot of time before October 23 to figure them out. This will be a battle.
Indiana: Indiana is the sexy team this year to have a Big Ten breakout. It also has revenge on its mind after blowing a 25-point lead in 2009. Add this to the potential for a night game on Halloween weekend, and Bloomington will be rocking for this game. But I do not know that I am drinking the Indiana Kool-Aid just yet. Ben Chappell’s Show returns with Darius Willis and Tandon Doss, who dismantled the NU defense in the first 20 minutes last season. But the offensive line is a shell of its 2009 form, starting two sophomores and a frosh. Chappell may not have the time that he enjoyed last year and may have to rely on his legs a lot more than the team wants.
On defense, the front seven is young and inexperienced. Runs, short passes, and screens should eat these guys alive. The defensive backs are talented veterans, but cannot be baited too much into helping out. Persa should be a well-oiled machine by then, and could provide a command performance here.
Do not get me wrong, I like what the program at IU has done over the last few years. I spent 3 years in Bloomington, and the administration has finally managed to make football somewhat relevant. But this is not the year to be optimistic, as there is just too much youth in key positions.
Outlook: How important is this stretch of games? In 2009, the Cats were 4-3 and down 28-3 against Indiana – in grave danger of going 1-3 in this stretch. NU mounted a fierce comeback and ended up playing on New Years Day. In 2008, an upset loss to Indiana prevented NU from a 10-win season and a place on New Years Day; but a last-second win against Minnesota put them right back on track. There is no reason to believe that this year will be any different.
4-0: This is a very difficult stretch. Possible, but not likely. 8% chance of 4-0.
3-1: Hard to point to which game would be the one loss. This would lead to a very impressive 7-1 start. 45%
2-2: Would make it hard to get back to eight wins here, but a likely result given the schedule. 35%
1-3: If the Cats are not on track offensively by the Minnesota game, it will be a long October (and a longer November). 10%
0-4: Scary thing is, I can envision scenarios where this is possible. 2%
As the season draws near, here is my schedule for the next two weeks:
Friday August 27: Camp wrap-up; preview of games 9-12
Tuesday August 31: Final predictions of NU season
Wednesday September 1: First edition of Big Ten Wednesday; Big Ten preview.
Thursday September 2: National Preview
Friday September 3: First edition of Gameday Preview
Sunday September 5: First edition of Sunday Morning Superback
Questions, Comments? johnknublog@gmail.com
Go Cats!
Northwestern Wildcats Camp Kenosha Update
I was out of internet range for the weekend, so sorry for the lack of updates. Today, I’ll run through the plethora of news and notes from the past week, and I’ll post my preview of the middle four NU games later in the week.
Injuries: Really, the most important news coming out of any camp is the injuries. NU has reported four players will not be able to play in the opener against Vandy, and possibly beyond. The most significant of these injuries is David Arnold, who was competing for a starting safety job. He would most likely be the third safety in our nickel set, in the space most recently occupied by Brendan Smith. Hopefully, Arnold has a speedy recovery and is back before the Cats face some of the stronger offenses. We saw how injuries to the secondary can hurt NU last year against Syracuse and Minnesota. Goodlow will add some strong depth to an already deep linebacker corps. Losing him early in the season will, hopefully, not be a large loss. Jones and Riley were already candidates for a redshirt, which is now basically a certainty. If these are the only injuries between now and September 4, NU should consider itself lucky. Good luck to the boys for the rest of camp and stay healthy!
Starters: There are very few position battles in Camp Kenosha this season. And Fitz is keeping the lid on who the starters will be for week one. He did reveal, with certainty, what he suggested at Big Ten Media Day. Brandon Williams will be NU's Punter; Demos will handle the rest of the kicking duties.
Coaches Show: NU announced this week that Fitz will join the rest of the Big Ten coaches and host a weekly coach’s show. This will broadcast locally on Comcast Sports and nationally on the Big Ten Network. Apparently there is also a movement to encourage Fitz to grow a mustache. Facial hair aside, the show is a great addition to the marketing push. This will be must-see-TV in my household. But from a recruiting standpoint, this is long overdue. Fitz now has the opportunity to be in the homes of every recruit at least once a week. NU’s coverage on the Big Ten Network recently received some street cred’ from recent commit Treyvon Green (thanks to Lake the Posts for the content).
Louie Vaccher's interview with recent NU 2011 RB commit, Treyvon Green: Green cited his only knowledge of Northwestern from watching them on the Big Ten Network and specifically cited access to games on the BTN as a key influencer in his interest. I've contended for years that the BTN helps the more unheralded programs like NU - who are getting desperate exposure in places they simply don't have the name brand (YET!) appeal of those that have generations of national default TV status. Great to see.
New Jersey: No, this is not a report on Rutgers and the Big Ten. The NU media guide announced the long-expected tweeks to the NU uniforms this year. NU will return to the aptly-named “Northwestern Stripes” on the arms of the home and away uni’s. Why NU would ever move away from its namesake is beyond me – especially considering the Cats used the USC-esque crescent stripes for the last few years. Also, NU will have black pants, with stripes, for the home kits. Recall that NU wore black pants with the purple shirts against OSU in ’06 and Duke in ’07 – a pretty sharp outfit, if I recall. NU will keep the all white road kits, although the pants promise stripes, rather than plain. Thanks to Sippin on Purple for this graphic cut from the Media Guide.
Future Schedules: In less-significant news, NU announced a four-game series with Duke, to run from 2015-2018. I have always been a proponent of playing BCS schools, so I can’t really complain about this one too much.
NFL Cats: I don’t plan to report too much on former players on this blog, but these two notes are too significant to pass up. First, Eagles assistant Marty Mornhinweg gave some great praise to Make Kafka,
saying that he was the best rookie QB he had seen in his 15 years of coaching. Mike looked pretty good in his debut last Friday. On the flip side, former Cat lineman John Gill was arrested for an alcohol –related incident, which resulted in his suspension from the Colts. Hopefully, this is not indicative of a bigger problem for John and that he comes back from this. We all hope to see you on the sidelines soon, John.
As I said above, season preview will continue later in the week.
Go Cats.
Injuries: Really, the most important news coming out of any camp is the injuries. NU has reported four players will not be able to play in the opener against Vandy, and possibly beyond. The most significant of these injuries is David Arnold, who was competing for a starting safety job. He would most likely be the third safety in our nickel set, in the space most recently occupied by Brendan Smith. Hopefully, Arnold has a speedy recovery and is back before the Cats face some of the stronger offenses. We saw how injuries to the secondary can hurt NU last year against Syracuse and Minnesota. Goodlow will add some strong depth to an already deep linebacker corps. Losing him early in the season will, hopefully, not be a large loss. Jones and Riley were already candidates for a redshirt, which is now basically a certainty. If these are the only injuries between now and September 4, NU should consider itself lucky. Good luck to the boys for the rest of camp and stay healthy!
Starters: There are very few position battles in Camp Kenosha this season. And Fitz is keeping the lid on who the starters will be for week one. He did reveal, with certainty, what he suggested at Big Ten Media Day. Brandon Williams will be NU's Punter; Demos will handle the rest of the kicking duties.
Coaches Show: NU announced this week that Fitz will join the rest of the Big Ten coaches and host a weekly coach’s show. This will broadcast locally on Comcast Sports and nationally on the Big Ten Network. Apparently there is also a movement to encourage Fitz to grow a mustache. Facial hair aside, the show is a great addition to the marketing push. This will be must-see-TV in my household. But from a recruiting standpoint, this is long overdue. Fitz now has the opportunity to be in the homes of every recruit at least once a week. NU’s coverage on the Big Ten Network recently received some street cred’ from recent commit Treyvon Green (thanks to Lake the Posts for the content).
Louie Vaccher's interview with recent NU 2011 RB commit, Treyvon Green: Green cited his only knowledge of Northwestern from watching them on the Big Ten Network and specifically cited access to games on the BTN as a key influencer in his interest. I've contended for years that the BTN helps the more unheralded programs like NU - who are getting desperate exposure in places they simply don't have the name brand (YET!) appeal of those that have generations of national default TV status. Great to see.
New Jersey: No, this is not a report on Rutgers and the Big Ten. The NU media guide announced the long-expected tweeks to the NU uniforms this year. NU will return to the aptly-named “Northwestern Stripes” on the arms of the home and away uni’s. Why NU would ever move away from its namesake is beyond me – especially considering the Cats used the USC-esque crescent stripes for the last few years. Also, NU will have black pants, with stripes, for the home kits. Recall that NU wore black pants with the purple shirts against OSU in ’06 and Duke in ’07 – a pretty sharp outfit, if I recall. NU will keep the all white road kits, although the pants promise stripes, rather than plain. Thanks to Sippin on Purple for this graphic cut from the Media Guide.
Future Schedules: In less-significant news, NU announced a four-game series with Duke, to run from 2015-2018. I have always been a proponent of playing BCS schools, so I can’t really complain about this one too much.
NFL Cats: I don’t plan to report too much on former players on this blog, but these two notes are too significant to pass up. First, Eagles assistant Marty Mornhinweg gave some great praise to Make Kafka,
saying that he was the best rookie QB he had seen in his 15 years of coaching. Mike looked pretty good in his debut last Friday. On the flip side, former Cat lineman John Gill was arrested for an alcohol –related incident, which resulted in his suspension from the Colts. Hopefully, this is not indicative of a bigger problem for John and that he comes back from this. We all hope to see you on the sidelines soon, John.
As I said above, season preview will continue later in the week.
Go Cats.
Game by Game Preview Part I
The 2010 version of the Northwestern Wildcats took to the field for the first time Monday. The last time the nation saw the Cats was on New Years Day. Since then, the team has read a lot about the disappointment of the Outback Bowl; the strong recruiting class; Big Ten expansion; the growing expectations of the program; and the question marks at key positions. Finally, the players evolve out of a newsworthy offseason and begin their preparation for 2010.
Before I start my preview of the first third of the season, a few items of note since my last post:
Big Ten Championship game in Indy. This did not really come as a surprise to many, as the town is custom-built for a major sporting event. NU blogger Sippin on Purple does not agree. I like the central location and (blasphemy, I know) the retractable roof. Not to protect the teams from the normal cold and the snow, mind you; I just don’t think that the Rose Bowl representative should be decided in a monsoon or a blizzard. We’ve proven we can play in the bad weather; let’s make the showcase event at least watchable.
Division speculation. While there continues to be more support for the strict geographical split, Dennis Dodd adds a pretty sound option on his CBS.sportsline blog: Dodd favors splitting the rivalries, such as OSU-Michigan. While, admittedly I’d like to keep the budding rivalry with Wisconsin; this would be an acceptable result from an NU standpoint. Really, any scenario that keeps the Buckeyes on the opposite side would satisfy me.
Skip’s thinking Arby too: NUsports.com contributor Skip Myslenski took a great interview with Arby Fields. Arby says he is refocused and ready to be the feature back. It remains to be seen whether he can translate this new mindset onto the field; but you have to love the positive outlook.
Now to the season preview: Everyone knows that NU has struggled with the first part of the season, and non-conference games in general. Prior to 2008, NU had not started 4-0 since 1962. And the recent losses to Syracuse, Duke, New Hampshire, and Hawaii only highlight the program’s non conference problems. But Fitz has never lost an opener and is 12-4 in non-conference regular season games. Either way you cut it, these games are critical for a strong run in 2010. Note that this is only a brief overview; in-depth previews will be provided on the Friday before each game.
Vanderbilt: Vandy has had a horrible 18 months since winning the 2008 Music City Bowl. The team went 2-10 last season and was absolutely anemic on offense. Vandy was 0-8 in the SEC. During this past offseason, their top-rated recruit was shot. And then, seven weeks before the season, their coach retired after eight of the most successful years in program history. This is a program in disarray and looks to be the only program worse than Tennessee in the SEC this year.
NU should really match well against Vandy’s weaknesses. As mentioned, the Commodore offense was deplorable last season and does not have the tools to show much improvement. The Wildcat defense, while losing key starters, has a lot of experience. Expect to see a lot of pressure on the Vandy QB, especially if NU takes an early lead. Vandy’s strength is their defense, which will be a nice test for Dan Persa and Arby Fields to get their feet wet. But as mentioned before, Fitz has been able to prepare the NU offense in his openers, so the 2010 Cats should be in good shape for a tough, but relatively smooth maiden voyage.
Illinois State: Admittedly, I don’t know anything about Illinois State football. According to Wikipedia they are the “Redbirds” and play in the Missouri Valley Conference. 2009 was their last winning season since 2006, finishing 6-5. They won their final game by beating #9 Northern Iowa. You may recall the Iowa required two blocked field goals in the final seconds to beat Northern Iowa last year. Other than that, I do not have much else to say here. Losing to an FCS team (again) would set the Cats back 5 years.
Rice: While most fans are pointing to weeks one or four as the dangerous game, my money is on Rice for the game that concerns me the most. At night game, in Texas, after (hopefully) a 2-0 start is a recipe for disaster – IF – we are dealing with the same ‘old Cats. But if the offense is thriving by week three, the Cats really should not have any problems.
Rice went 2-10 last year, beating only UTEP and Tulane after starting 0-9. One of their losses was a 36-17 loss to Vanderbilt’s “anemic” offense. All in all, Rice held only one opponent under 27 points last year; but they play in a conference where offense is king. If the Cats offense sputters, they could be in trouble. But expect the defense to show the Owls the door early on.
Central Michigan: CMU was a late addition to the schedule in a space that was vacant until very late in the scheduling process. Last season the team finished 12-2, including a MAC title and a win against Troy in the GMAC Bowl. The Chippewas have won 39 games over the last four seasons – but primarily due to Chicago Bears QB Dan LeFevour. It stands to reason that CMU is a “system” offense, and may be able to plug in a new QB quickly. But it is unlikely that the new guy can be ready for a Big Ten defense by week four.
The Cats have had problems against the MAC, no doubt. The only MAC game in the Fitz era that was a no-doubter was the opener in 2006 against Miami. I think the reason is that MAC teams really get “up” for games against Big Ten foes. They are playing against a lot of guys that they played against in high school and want to prove that they were overlooked. That said, Fitz hasn’t let his teams fall into that trap. Expect the Cats to win their eighth straight against MAC opponents.
Outlook: The Cats have some challenges in the first four games. But if the program really is where Fitz tells us it is, they have to start off 4-0. No excuses. The schedule as a whole is set up for a deep run for the Cats, as we will continue to look at next week. A fast start is critical to the season’s success.
4-0: this is what is expected, but nonetheless will be a load off the player’s backs. 70% chance of 4-0.
3-1: quite frankly, wouldn’t surprise anyone; NU has shown they can overcome this. 26%.
2-2: disastrous, would take a miracle to achieve a winning record from here. 3%
1-3: 2011 recruits start de-committing, publicly. Big Ten announces they are forming a committee to retract the Big Ten back to 11 teams. <1%
0-4: Hey, at least no one will be trying to lure Fitz away any more. <1%
Check back this weekend when I’ll give a review of the first week of practice.
Go Cats!
Before I start my preview of the first third of the season, a few items of note since my last post:
Big Ten Championship game in Indy. This did not really come as a surprise to many, as the town is custom-built for a major sporting event. NU blogger Sippin on Purple does not agree. I like the central location and (blasphemy, I know) the retractable roof. Not to protect the teams from the normal cold and the snow, mind you; I just don’t think that the Rose Bowl representative should be decided in a monsoon or a blizzard. We’ve proven we can play in the bad weather; let’s make the showcase event at least watchable.
Division speculation. While there continues to be more support for the strict geographical split, Dennis Dodd adds a pretty sound option on his CBS.sportsline blog: Dodd favors splitting the rivalries, such as OSU-Michigan. While, admittedly I’d like to keep the budding rivalry with Wisconsin; this would be an acceptable result from an NU standpoint. Really, any scenario that keeps the Buckeyes on the opposite side would satisfy me.
Skip’s thinking Arby too: NUsports.com contributor Skip Myslenski took a great interview with Arby Fields. Arby says he is refocused and ready to be the feature back. It remains to be seen whether he can translate this new mindset onto the field; but you have to love the positive outlook.
Now to the season preview: Everyone knows that NU has struggled with the first part of the season, and non-conference games in general. Prior to 2008, NU had not started 4-0 since 1962. And the recent losses to Syracuse, Duke, New Hampshire, and Hawaii only highlight the program’s non conference problems. But Fitz has never lost an opener and is 12-4 in non-conference regular season games. Either way you cut it, these games are critical for a strong run in 2010. Note that this is only a brief overview; in-depth previews will be provided on the Friday before each game.
Vanderbilt: Vandy has had a horrible 18 months since winning the 2008 Music City Bowl. The team went 2-10 last season and was absolutely anemic on offense. Vandy was 0-8 in the SEC. During this past offseason, their top-rated recruit was shot. And then, seven weeks before the season, their coach retired after eight of the most successful years in program history. This is a program in disarray and looks to be the only program worse than Tennessee in the SEC this year.
NU should really match well against Vandy’s weaknesses. As mentioned, the Commodore offense was deplorable last season and does not have the tools to show much improvement. The Wildcat defense, while losing key starters, has a lot of experience. Expect to see a lot of pressure on the Vandy QB, especially if NU takes an early lead. Vandy’s strength is their defense, which will be a nice test for Dan Persa and Arby Fields to get their feet wet. But as mentioned before, Fitz has been able to prepare the NU offense in his openers, so the 2010 Cats should be in good shape for a tough, but relatively smooth maiden voyage.
Illinois State: Admittedly, I don’t know anything about Illinois State football. According to Wikipedia they are the “Redbirds” and play in the Missouri Valley Conference. 2009 was their last winning season since 2006, finishing 6-5. They won their final game by beating #9 Northern Iowa. You may recall the Iowa required two blocked field goals in the final seconds to beat Northern Iowa last year. Other than that, I do not have much else to say here. Losing to an FCS team (again) would set the Cats back 5 years.
Rice: While most fans are pointing to weeks one or four as the dangerous game, my money is on Rice for the game that concerns me the most. At night game, in Texas, after (hopefully) a 2-0 start is a recipe for disaster – IF – we are dealing with the same ‘old Cats. But if the offense is thriving by week three, the Cats really should not have any problems.
Rice went 2-10 last year, beating only UTEP and Tulane after starting 0-9. One of their losses was a 36-17 loss to Vanderbilt’s “anemic” offense. All in all, Rice held only one opponent under 27 points last year; but they play in a conference where offense is king. If the Cats offense sputters, they could be in trouble. But expect the defense to show the Owls the door early on.
Central Michigan: CMU was a late addition to the schedule in a space that was vacant until very late in the scheduling process. Last season the team finished 12-2, including a MAC title and a win against Troy in the GMAC Bowl. The Chippewas have won 39 games over the last four seasons – but primarily due to Chicago Bears QB Dan LeFevour. It stands to reason that CMU is a “system” offense, and may be able to plug in a new QB quickly. But it is unlikely that the new guy can be ready for a Big Ten defense by week four.
The Cats have had problems against the MAC, no doubt. The only MAC game in the Fitz era that was a no-doubter was the opener in 2006 against Miami. I think the reason is that MAC teams really get “up” for games against Big Ten foes. They are playing against a lot of guys that they played against in high school and want to prove that they were overlooked. That said, Fitz hasn’t let his teams fall into that trap. Expect the Cats to win their eighth straight against MAC opponents.
Outlook: The Cats have some challenges in the first four games. But if the program really is where Fitz tells us it is, they have to start off 4-0. No excuses. The schedule as a whole is set up for a deep run for the Cats, as we will continue to look at next week. A fast start is critical to the season’s success.
4-0: this is what is expected, but nonetheless will be a load off the player’s backs. 70% chance of 4-0.
3-1: quite frankly, wouldn’t surprise anyone; NU has shown they can overcome this. 26%.
2-2: disastrous, would take a miracle to achieve a winning record from here. 3%
1-3: 2011 recruits start de-committing, publicly. Big Ten announces they are forming a committee to retract the Big Ten back to 11 teams. <1%
0-4: Hey, at least no one will be trying to lure Fitz away any more. <1%
Check back this weekend when I’ll give a review of the first week of practice.
Go Cats!
Happy New Year!
If you are a Big Ten Football Fan, Day One of the Big Ten Media Day is your New Years Day. A lot of optimism; and everyone has a clean slate. And this year promises some news about the future of the conference from the Big Ten Conference.
Of course, the big headlines are the coaches’ press conferences. Each Big Ten Coach gets 10-15 minutes to meet the media. After reviewing the coaches’ interviews, the thing that struck me the most is that, as opposed to the SEC, none of the coaches were answering questions about agents or other wrongdoing. And that says a lot about the programs the Big Ten is running and the athletes that come to play here.
And yes, Nick Saban, some of the agents are like “pimps.” But they are also like drug-dealers, prostitutes, gang leaders, and other assorted handler/enabler/bad influence sorts. There are bad people out there and you are dealing with a population of young impressionable people. It is your job and the job of the school to teach them right from wrong and protect them from these people. Agreed, you cannot be everywhere. But you cannot shed all of the blame.
But back to the Big Ten. Jim Delaney made some long-awaited announcements about the future of the conference.
- Division breakdown will be announced in 30-45 days. The conference will consider the teams’ performance since 1993. This is an interesting statement. The national perception is that an eastern division that includes Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan will be too powerful. But performance since 1993 includes the recent successes of Wisconsin and Northwestern – as well as the later part of Nebraska’s dominance of the 80’s and 90’s. Perhaps the strict east-west split is the favorite.
- While not committing to a location, there will be a conference championship game in 2011. Indy seems like the obvious choice if there will be a permanent location.
- Delaney said that he wants to move to a nine-game conference schedule, probably beginning in year three of the new alignment. This would allow teams to play four teams from the other division each year. This raises the question of whether there will be “protected” inter-divisional games; while still rotating through the entire conference every two years. This received mixed responses from the coaches. Jim Tressel was particularly critical of a nine-game conference slate.
- Big Ten will keep its name; new logo will be unveiled.
Fitz was as impressive as he has ever been. He still spews his share of typical clichés. But he was stoic and candid in his assessment of the team. Bill King from XM Rivals Radio was raving about Fitz on the radio this morning, calling him a “General” that any big program would hire on the spot. Let’s hope it never comes to that. Some highlights: (transcript courtesy of laketheposts.com and ASAP Sports).
- On NU’s recent success: “And what is that next step? First and foremost it's going to be to go to a bowl game for three straight years, something that never happened in our program before. It all happens because we believe we've got great players.”
- On the opportunity to play at Wrigley Field: “And especially for our student-athletes. It's going to be pretty neat to run out where Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus and George Halas were on that field. That's going to be really special.”
- On his success against Iowa: “Northwestern and Iowa that have a lot of respect for each other, and I think they've just been really hard-fought games and a lot of fun to be on both sides of the sidelines. We just have been fortunate to be on the winning edge.”
- On Dan Persa: “Dan's played a lot of football for us. He started last year against Iowa and Iowa City, came in second half against Penn State, but he had also played the year before in the kicking game. It helps you sleep a little bit better at night.”
- On the running game: “If you want to win the championship in this league, you have got to be able to run the football efficiently. We define that by four or more on first down, half or more on second down, pick it up on third and fourth, and score on the goal line. It's not a complicated equation, but we definitely need to be better there. And we put a strong focus in that in the spring, and we'll go right back there to start a camp.”
- On how to solve the attendance issue: “We need to keep winning, number one. The direction that Morton Schapiro, our president, and our board of trustees and Jim Phillips have gone now with adding Mike Polisky as our associate AD in charge of external affairs, giving him a budget to be able to market here in Chicago, and to continue to do the things we can control on the field. That's obviously the 12 Saturdays of winning football games.”
- More on Persa: “Pound for pound, he's our best conditioned athlete. He was named our Iron Cat, which is our top point getter in the off-season from strength, speed, and conditioning standpoint. I'm pretty confident he'll win that again. He kind of won that going away last year. He's a tremendous leader off the field. He first and foremost starts by leading by example. He's the first to show and last to go. That's the way you want your quarterback described. But he has an uncanny ability to have others around him want to be associated with him. So everybody raises up to his level.”
The biggest news from Fitz was a major personnel move. Brandon Williams will punt this year; leaving Stefan Demos to concentrate on kickoffs and place kicks. Demos has struggled with the punting game in the past. Hopefully, moving in this new direction will be a positive for the team and allow Stefan to focus on an All Big Ten season as a kicker.
As the Big Ten meetings continue, on I will collect quotes from our three attending players, Dan Persa, Corbin Bryant, and Quentin Davie – as well as any other news that breaks from the meetings.
Starting next week, I will begin covering practice, which begins on Monday. I’ll also begin my week-by-week preview of NU’s schedule.
Northwestern Defense
I discussed the Northwestern Offense a few weeks ago, before we begin previewing the season in a few weeks; let’s take a look at the heart and soul of the new Northwestern Wildcats, the defense. Under Mike Hankwitz and Coach Fitz, the defense has taken a leading role in many of the NU wins of the last two years. And given the question marks on offense, the defense will be called on once again to answer the call.
The defense is far from perfect. It still gave up 30 points 5 times, and it struggled against complete offenses (Wisconsin) and stud wide receivers (Syracuse and Auburn). It also often had ridiculous lapses in performance in many games, including the fourth quarter meltdown against Penn State.
Many will point to the key losses on this side, but there is a great deal of depth and experience. As a whole, this year’s edition of the Wildcat D should be better than the last.
Defensive Linemen: Don’t get me wrong, the loss of Corey Wootton is a big loss. But his injury problems allowed Kevin Watt to get a great deal of reps. With Watt and fellow junior Vince Browne anchoring the ends, they should enjoy two very productive years together. Browne’s 39 tackles and 5 sacks led a Wildcat D-Linemen last year. Hankwitz loves to employ a rotation on the line, and we should see a decent amount of sophomore Quentin Williams and freshman Davon Custis, one of the prizes of the 2009 recruiting class. In the middle Corbin Bryant and Jack DiNarno will continue to put pressure on the opposing O-Lines, letting the linebackers do their job.
Linebackers: Is it a surprise that Pat Fitzgerald’s defense is lead by a group of stud linebackers? Actually, NU has a long line of NFL talent linebackers since Fitz hung up the cleats: Barry Gardner, Napoleon Harris, Kevin Bentley, and recently, Nick Roach. This year’s class may be one of the best in the Big Ten. Quentin Davie has grown into a monster and will return as the team’s leading tackler. Nate Williams is a smart, quick middle linebacker, who is known for stuffing running backs in key situations (3rd on team in tackles-for-loss in ’09). Ben Johnson, who returned a long interception for a TD last year, is the likely candidate for the ROLB spot. Relative unknown Bryce McNaul, who only appeared in 7 games last year, should see a lot of playing time in 2010 as a reserve.
Defensive Backs: Whether it is making the big interception, or giving up the key catch, there is no doubt that the NU defensive backs are the most exciting element of the NU defense. And this year should be no different. Even though it seems like last year’s graduates, Phillips, Smith, and McManis, had been at NU forever, this year’s DBs have a lot of experience to add. Jordan Mabin may have been the most improved player in preparation for the Outback Bowl, and the team expects great things from him. On the other side, Justan Vaughn has a lot to prove in his senior year. Vaughn saw a lot of playing time while McManis was hurt last year. NU tends to use three safeties in a nickel set, as opposed to three corners. This year we’ll see more of Brian Peters, who made a thrilling interception in the Outback Bowl, Jared Carpenter, a highly touted sophomore who will get his chance this year, and David Arnold, who looks primed to take on the Brendan Smith role as the defenses most exciting player. There is a lot of talent back here, and if the Cats want to make a conference title run, they need to be solid.
Special Teams: No word yet on how Fitz wants to operate the return game this year. In recent years, there has not been a large focus on placing skill players, capable of breaking open a game, in the KR or PR position. We’ll probably see a lot of Stephen Simmons again. We may even see freshman speedster Venric Mark, if Fitz decides not to redshirt him.
And then there is Stefan Demos. On a personal note, I’ve always held a special place for Demos. My season tickets are right above the special teams area. We’ve watched him evolve from a scrawny freshman, to a dangerous clutch kicker. Yes, he had a rough game against Auburn. But were it not for his heroics against Indiana and Eastern Michigan (where he cleaned up the mess made by his teammates), NU would not have been playing in January. Plus he just seems like a nice guy – the sort of guy you’d let your sister date. I’m glad that he’s getting the publicity for All-Conference, and I’m hoping for a great year from the kicking game.
As we go through August, I’ll be posting more often as summer camp kicks off in a few weeks. I’ll have some predictions and previews, as well as news from the few position battles that are being waged.
The defense is far from perfect. It still gave up 30 points 5 times, and it struggled against complete offenses (Wisconsin) and stud wide receivers (Syracuse and Auburn). It also often had ridiculous lapses in performance in many games, including the fourth quarter meltdown against Penn State.
Many will point to the key losses on this side, but there is a great deal of depth and experience. As a whole, this year’s edition of the Wildcat D should be better than the last.
Defensive Linemen: Don’t get me wrong, the loss of Corey Wootton is a big loss. But his injury problems allowed Kevin Watt to get a great deal of reps. With Watt and fellow junior Vince Browne anchoring the ends, they should enjoy two very productive years together. Browne’s 39 tackles and 5 sacks led a Wildcat D-Linemen last year. Hankwitz loves to employ a rotation on the line, and we should see a decent amount of sophomore Quentin Williams and freshman Davon Custis, one of the prizes of the 2009 recruiting class. In the middle Corbin Bryant and Jack DiNarno will continue to put pressure on the opposing O-Lines, letting the linebackers do their job.
Linebackers: Is it a surprise that Pat Fitzgerald’s defense is lead by a group of stud linebackers? Actually, NU has a long line of NFL talent linebackers since Fitz hung up the cleats: Barry Gardner, Napoleon Harris, Kevin Bentley, and recently, Nick Roach. This year’s class may be one of the best in the Big Ten. Quentin Davie has grown into a monster and will return as the team’s leading tackler. Nate Williams is a smart, quick middle linebacker, who is known for stuffing running backs in key situations (3rd on team in tackles-for-loss in ’09). Ben Johnson, who returned a long interception for a TD last year, is the likely candidate for the ROLB spot. Relative unknown Bryce McNaul, who only appeared in 7 games last year, should see a lot of playing time in 2010 as a reserve.
Defensive Backs: Whether it is making the big interception, or giving up the key catch, there is no doubt that the NU defensive backs are the most exciting element of the NU defense. And this year should be no different. Even though it seems like last year’s graduates, Phillips, Smith, and McManis, had been at NU forever, this year’s DBs have a lot of experience to add. Jordan Mabin may have been the most improved player in preparation for the Outback Bowl, and the team expects great things from him. On the other side, Justan Vaughn has a lot to prove in his senior year. Vaughn saw a lot of playing time while McManis was hurt last year. NU tends to use three safeties in a nickel set, as opposed to three corners. This year we’ll see more of Brian Peters, who made a thrilling interception in the Outback Bowl, Jared Carpenter, a highly touted sophomore who will get his chance this year, and David Arnold, who looks primed to take on the Brendan Smith role as the defenses most exciting player. There is a lot of talent back here, and if the Cats want to make a conference title run, they need to be solid.
Special Teams: No word yet on how Fitz wants to operate the return game this year. In recent years, there has not been a large focus on placing skill players, capable of breaking open a game, in the KR or PR position. We’ll probably see a lot of Stephen Simmons again. We may even see freshman speedster Venric Mark, if Fitz decides not to redshirt him.
And then there is Stefan Demos. On a personal note, I’ve always held a special place for Demos. My season tickets are right above the special teams area. We’ve watched him evolve from a scrawny freshman, to a dangerous clutch kicker. Yes, he had a rough game against Auburn. But were it not for his heroics against Indiana and Eastern Michigan (where he cleaned up the mess made by his teammates), NU would not have been playing in January. Plus he just seems like a nice guy – the sort of guy you’d let your sister date. I’m glad that he’s getting the publicity for All-Conference, and I’m hoping for a great year from the kicking game.
As we go through August, I’ll be posting more often as summer camp kicks off in a few weeks. I’ll have some predictions and previews, as well as news from the few position battles that are being waged.
Welcome to the Big Ten, Nebraska
I was planning to follow up my preview of the offense with a defensive preview. But I would be remiss if I did not post my thoughts on the historical addition of Nebraska to the Big Ten. While the mainstream media has overdone this story, I wanted to focus on how the addition of Nebraska will affect Northwestern directly.
We are told that there will eventually be financial benefits to each school in the form of higher television revenues and bowl payouts. And this will undoubtedly raise the prestige of the conference by adding a traditionally successful program (as opposed to, say, Rutgers). It should also increase the recruiting base of the conference further into the heartland (read: enormous corn-fed offensive linemen). But how will this major change affect the football in Evanston?
Television Exposure: Adding a new team to the Big Ten means one more team to compete with for the prime television spots. These are typically the noon (EST) games on ESPN and ESPN2 and the 3:30 (EST) ABC game. Other games are relegated to ESPNU, or BTN. Adding Nebraska will generally hurt NU’s chances of securing one of those spots, at least as long as it continues its rise to prominence. On the other hand, in years where Nebraska is on the schedule, which depending on the divisions, could be every year, it will be a game more likely to claim one of the “big three” TV spots; at least to the extent that Nebraska replaces, say, Indiana on the schedule. Depending on the new TV contract, adding Nebraska could also secure a fourth “prime” TV spot (a noon ABC game?), which would benefit everyone from an exposure standpoint. Verdict: Slight negative
Attendance: Two things: (1) Nebraska fans travel and (2) they are some of the best football people that you will ever meet. I look forward to Nebraska fans visiting Evanston. Many fans are upset when Ryan Field is half-full of red sweatshirts. However, if these are seats that would otherwise be empty, I’d rather collect the ticket revenue. Nebraska is another team that will fill these empty seats – at least until the novelty of the Chicago trip wears off. NU fans should also look forward to their first trip to Lincoln, which is traditionally very hospitable to opposing fans. Verdict: Positive
Competition Level: Fitting in Nebraska to the Big Ten should produce the same competitive effect of adding Penn State. It is a traditional power, but not one without its shortcomings. It will have good years, and great years, and poor years. It is a program that has not withstood the effects of scholarship limits and overall parity in college football, and thus is not as consistent as it would like to be. It will generally be a big game for Northwestern because of the ‘N’ on the helmet. Some have referred to this as a “helmet game.” Meaning no matter how bad Nebraska might be in a given year, it will always be a big deal to beat them – because they are Nebraska. An example would be beating Michigan in Ann Arbor in 2008. Nebraska will always be a helmet game. Verdict: Slight Positive
Bowl Positioning: NU fans should see the addition of Nebraska as a threat. It is one more team that has the potential to jump over NU in the Bowl selection process. NU was blessed with an Outback Bowl bid in 2010, but that was only after a number of disappointments. Nebraska will add to those disappointments. Not only do Nebraska fans travel about as well as any school in the country, but Nebraska has never played in most of the Big Ten Bowl sights. Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, and the other Big Ten cities will be falling over themselves to collect some of that Cornhusker money. On the other hand, this may have some benefit. A big name like Nebraska will be attractive for a BCS at-large in a 10-2 type season. Having another team capable of securing the second BCS bid only pushes everyone else up one bowl position. Verdict: Negative
Divisional Alignment: The affect on Northwestern will depend on where the dividing line is placed. If it is a straight east-west split, this is a major benefit for Northwestern. No need to play Ohio State every year; keeping Illinois in the division; playing Wisconsin and Iowa annually, two games which have become great rivalries themselves; and having an annual game against Nebraska (see “Attendance” above). If Northwestern is sent east, it will be the complete opposite. The conference championship game gives NU a much better chance of Rose Bowl bid in any given year. Verdict: Hung
Revenge: 66-17. Fitz probably does not have a vengeful bone in his body. But if the conditions are ever right for a blowout, NU fans will be calling for blood. Verdict: Positive
Overall: The intangible effects on the conference as a whole will probably outweigh the negative effects on Northwestern specifically. NU fans should be generally excited about this addition. No one knows what the future holds for the Big Ten. But 2011 will be fun. Welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten!
A few side notes: This same general analysis would apply to Indiana, Minnesota, and probably Purdue as well. Also, despite what I suggest above I have nothing against adding Rutgers to the conference as long as it is part of a larger expansion. If the Big Ten moves to 16 teams, it needs to consider adding some “mid-level” programs such as Rutgers, UConn and Missouri. Otherwise, Northwestern will continue to get pushed down the pecking order.
Next Blog: I’ll finally get to the defense. I promise.
We are told that there will eventually be financial benefits to each school in the form of higher television revenues and bowl payouts. And this will undoubtedly raise the prestige of the conference by adding a traditionally successful program (as opposed to, say, Rutgers). It should also increase the recruiting base of the conference further into the heartland (read: enormous corn-fed offensive linemen). But how will this major change affect the football in Evanston?
Television Exposure: Adding a new team to the Big Ten means one more team to compete with for the prime television spots. These are typically the noon (EST) games on ESPN and ESPN2 and the 3:30 (EST) ABC game. Other games are relegated to ESPNU, or BTN. Adding Nebraska will generally hurt NU’s chances of securing one of those spots, at least as long as it continues its rise to prominence. On the other hand, in years where Nebraska is on the schedule, which depending on the divisions, could be every year, it will be a game more likely to claim one of the “big three” TV spots; at least to the extent that Nebraska replaces, say, Indiana on the schedule. Depending on the new TV contract, adding Nebraska could also secure a fourth “prime” TV spot (a noon ABC game?), which would benefit everyone from an exposure standpoint. Verdict: Slight negative
Attendance: Two things: (1) Nebraska fans travel and (2) they are some of the best football people that you will ever meet. I look forward to Nebraska fans visiting Evanston. Many fans are upset when Ryan Field is half-full of red sweatshirts. However, if these are seats that would otherwise be empty, I’d rather collect the ticket revenue. Nebraska is another team that will fill these empty seats – at least until the novelty of the Chicago trip wears off. NU fans should also look forward to their first trip to Lincoln, which is traditionally very hospitable to opposing fans. Verdict: Positive
Competition Level: Fitting in Nebraska to the Big Ten should produce the same competitive effect of adding Penn State. It is a traditional power, but not one without its shortcomings. It will have good years, and great years, and poor years. It is a program that has not withstood the effects of scholarship limits and overall parity in college football, and thus is not as consistent as it would like to be. It will generally be a big game for Northwestern because of the ‘N’ on the helmet. Some have referred to this as a “helmet game.” Meaning no matter how bad Nebraska might be in a given year, it will always be a big deal to beat them – because they are Nebraska. An example would be beating Michigan in Ann Arbor in 2008. Nebraska will always be a helmet game. Verdict: Slight Positive
Bowl Positioning: NU fans should see the addition of Nebraska as a threat. It is one more team that has the potential to jump over NU in the Bowl selection process. NU was blessed with an Outback Bowl bid in 2010, but that was only after a number of disappointments. Nebraska will add to those disappointments. Not only do Nebraska fans travel about as well as any school in the country, but Nebraska has never played in most of the Big Ten Bowl sights. Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, and the other Big Ten cities will be falling over themselves to collect some of that Cornhusker money. On the other hand, this may have some benefit. A big name like Nebraska will be attractive for a BCS at-large in a 10-2 type season. Having another team capable of securing the second BCS bid only pushes everyone else up one bowl position. Verdict: Negative
Divisional Alignment: The affect on Northwestern will depend on where the dividing line is placed. If it is a straight east-west split, this is a major benefit for Northwestern. No need to play Ohio State every year; keeping Illinois in the division; playing Wisconsin and Iowa annually, two games which have become great rivalries themselves; and having an annual game against Nebraska (see “Attendance” above). If Northwestern is sent east, it will be the complete opposite. The conference championship game gives NU a much better chance of Rose Bowl bid in any given year. Verdict: Hung
Revenge: 66-17. Fitz probably does not have a vengeful bone in his body. But if the conditions are ever right for a blowout, NU fans will be calling for blood. Verdict: Positive
Overall: The intangible effects on the conference as a whole will probably outweigh the negative effects on Northwestern specifically. NU fans should be generally excited about this addition. No one knows what the future holds for the Big Ten. But 2011 will be fun. Welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten!
A few side notes: This same general analysis would apply to Indiana, Minnesota, and probably Purdue as well. Also, despite what I suggest above I have nothing against adding Rutgers to the conference as long as it is part of a larger expansion. If the Big Ten moves to 16 teams, it needs to consider adding some “mid-level” programs such as Rutgers, UConn and Missouri. Otherwise, Northwestern will continue to get pushed down the pecking order.
Next Blog: I’ll finally get to the defense. I promise.
The Wildcat Offense: Navigating the Seas of Change
Gone are the days when the Wildcat offense scored 30, 40, even 50 points on a regular basis. This is Pat Fitzgerald football.
In Northwestern’s 2000 Big Ten Championship season, the Cats were 8-0 when scoring 30 points, and 0-4 when scoring less. Last year, the Cats scored 30 points only 4 times, winning only two. In ten years the Wildcats have evolved from the godfather of the Big Ten spread offense to a team that wins with defense and safe, yet efficient offense.
Don’t get me wrong, the Cats will still run the spread; and often will run the hurry-up, or “Fastball” offense. But the reliance on offense to win games is a thing of the past. Fitz-ball is here to stay.
So who is going to lead the offense this year? Some familiar names, some new faces, and some guys that you will know by Thanksgiving. Here’s a position-by-position breakdown.
QB: Prince of Persa; or Court Jester?
Dan Persa witnessed the lowest lows and highest highs in his limited action in 2009. When starting QB Mike Kafka was injured against Penn State, the Wildcat offense was controlling the field. An inexperienced Persa entered the game, and the offense sputtered. The defense kept it close, but Penn State finally broke through and won 34-13, in a game that truly was much closer than the score dictated.
One week later, Persa lead the Cats to an upset over previously undefeated Iowa, in the signature win of the season. Persa played smart, conservative football – the type of game that Pat Fitzgerald loves. And the type of game Cat fans hope to see next year.
Persa may be the best runner of the dual-threat quarterbacks that NU has seen over the last 10 years. But for him to be effective, he is going to need to be able to throw. He seems to have an accurate arm, even where his arm strength is lacking. The big question is whether his timing and ability to read defenses will be up to par with what is expected in the NU offense.
While past NU quarterbacks have hardly been world-burners, Persa is the next in a long line of quarterbacks who have had careers after NU. Gavin Hoffman, Zak Kustok, Brett Basanez, CJ Bacher, and now Mike Kafka have all earned paychecks playing football. The prototypical quarterback in this offense can read a defense quickly and either hand-off (in the read option), run, or find the quick receiver. Persa’s ability to react when he misses his read, or misreads the defense, will be critical to the Cats success in 2010.
Persa should benefit from the team that is on the field around him. An experienced line and a stable of receivers will provide him with ample ability to move the ball. The only question will be...
RB: I'm Thinking Arby?
The past fifteen years have provided Northwestern fans, and opposing defenses, with a consistent line of 1000-yard rushers and future NFL talent. Even the spread offense, assumed by the ignorant to be a passing offense, was developed to assist the running game. Basically, NU has been a run-first offense for quite some time now. But things have begun to change and that has some Wildcat fans concerned.
Arby Fields was expected by some to pick up right where Tyrell Sutton left off -- even inheriting his jersey number. And maybe this was too much to expect of a freshman. He showed signs of high-level play at times, but often struggled to find rhythm and sometimes disappeared from the field for quarters at a time. Arby finished with only 300 yards rushing.
Scott Concannon is a small bruising back with an uncanny ability to squirt through holes. But, similarly, never seemed to put together four quarters worth of quality football. Concannon played in every game, but compiled only 241 yards.
Jacob Schmidt is listed as the backup on the post-spring roster. The former walk-on stared two games at RB, but only finished with 181 yards on 56 carries.
As the search for a feature back continues, a door may have opened for true freshman Adonis Smith. Adonis was one of the best backs in Northern California last year. This is a wide open race and he'll have a shot. If NU gives him a roster spot, as opposed to redshirting him, expect to see Smith as a major component of the offense.
All signs point to a continued use of all backs until someone stands out as the leader. Fields is probably the favorite, and will be given the most opportunities early. But in an offense that is used to dominating running backs, Arby has big shoes to fill.
WR: Restocked and Reloaded
One of the hallmarks of the Northwestern spread offense is a seemingly never-ending train of competent, smart, possession receivers who have a knack for getting open quickly and allowing their QB to do his job. Never a superstar, and rarely knockout numbers, but the Wildcat wide receiver brings his lunch pail to work and gets ready to move the ball. NU was one of the best in the Big 10 in 3rd-down conversions in 2009, largely because of seniors Andrew Brewer, Zeke Markshausen, and this group of returning WRs.
Demetrius Fields has the largest big play potential. He can blaze in open space and will be the Wildcats deep threat. If Persa can work on his deep ball, Fields will be a major weapon. He is listed on the spring depth chart as the "X" receiver, which usually means that he is the go-to guy for Dan Persa.
Sidney Stewart is the teams leading returning receiver with 42 receptions last year. He and Jeremy Ebert will see a majority of the snaps as starters. The Cats are known for a wide rotation of receivers as well, so Charles Brown, Drew Moulton, and Brendan Barber should also see plenty of Ryan Field action.
Tony Jones is the only true Frosh who is likely to see playing time at wideout this season. Also freshman Venric Mark is looking like he may see some time in the return game. This kid can fly and will bring some excitement back to the special teams.
All in all, NU brings back a solid, yet unremarkable group of receivers to the fold. This is a formula that has worked for quite sometime now.
TE (Superback): Bringing Super Back to the Position
NU had not had a solid tight end since Jay Tant in the late nineties. During the 2000's the team toyed around with the "Superback" position, which amounts to basically a hybrid tight end/fullback. The superback has always been a solid, yet silent contributor to the offense. Until now.
Last year, Drake Dunsmore busted onto the scene and was third on the team in receptions and second in the Big 10 among tight ends. Fans around the county will remember his 66-yard TD run against Auburn in the Outback Bowl which personify this unique talent. His strength, speed, hands, and footwork are a prototype of the modern tight end. Drake is the only true All Conference candidate among the skill position players. Expect Drake to continue to play a major role in the offense, especially early in the season as Persa is getting his feet wet.
Josh Rooks will backup Drake and will also see a decent amount of time, especially in short yardage situations as a blocking TE or FB.
OL: Back and Ready for More
The Wildcats offensive line returns five starters from a group that really came together as the year went on. It played its best football in the closing stretch against Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Auburn. If this group continues to gel, the skill players will have plenty of time to do their job.
Across the front is Patrick Ward, Doug Bartels, Ben Burkett, Brian Mulroe, and Al Netter. All returning starters -- and none of them seniors. These guys are the cornerstone of this offense. Fitz preaches teamwork and trusting yourself and others. And nothing personifies this image better than this line. Very exciting things could happen here.
NU's defense, which I will preview in a week or so, will still be the squad counted upon to win games. There are a lot of question marks, particularly at QB and RB. But with 8 returning starters, there is no reason to believe that this offense cannot score the points necessary to put the Cats on New Years Day in 2011.
In Northwestern’s 2000 Big Ten Championship season, the Cats were 8-0 when scoring 30 points, and 0-4 when scoring less. Last year, the Cats scored 30 points only 4 times, winning only two. In ten years the Wildcats have evolved from the godfather of the Big Ten spread offense to a team that wins with defense and safe, yet efficient offense.
Don’t get me wrong, the Cats will still run the spread; and often will run the hurry-up, or “Fastball” offense. But the reliance on offense to win games is a thing of the past. Fitz-ball is here to stay.
So who is going to lead the offense this year? Some familiar names, some new faces, and some guys that you will know by Thanksgiving. Here’s a position-by-position breakdown.
QB: Prince of Persa; or Court Jester?
Dan Persa witnessed the lowest lows and highest highs in his limited action in 2009. When starting QB Mike Kafka was injured against Penn State, the Wildcat offense was controlling the field. An inexperienced Persa entered the game, and the offense sputtered. The defense kept it close, but Penn State finally broke through and won 34-13, in a game that truly was much closer than the score dictated.
One week later, Persa lead the Cats to an upset over previously undefeated Iowa, in the signature win of the season. Persa played smart, conservative football – the type of game that Pat Fitzgerald loves. And the type of game Cat fans hope to see next year.
Persa may be the best runner of the dual-threat quarterbacks that NU has seen over the last 10 years. But for him to be effective, he is going to need to be able to throw. He seems to have an accurate arm, even where his arm strength is lacking. The big question is whether his timing and ability to read defenses will be up to par with what is expected in the NU offense.
While past NU quarterbacks have hardly been world-burners, Persa is the next in a long line of quarterbacks who have had careers after NU. Gavin Hoffman, Zak Kustok, Brett Basanez, CJ Bacher, and now Mike Kafka have all earned paychecks playing football. The prototypical quarterback in this offense can read a defense quickly and either hand-off (in the read option), run, or find the quick receiver. Persa’s ability to react when he misses his read, or misreads the defense, will be critical to the Cats success in 2010.
Persa should benefit from the team that is on the field around him. An experienced line and a stable of receivers will provide him with ample ability to move the ball. The only question will be...
RB: I'm Thinking Arby?
The past fifteen years have provided Northwestern fans, and opposing defenses, with a consistent line of 1000-yard rushers and future NFL talent. Even the spread offense, assumed by the ignorant to be a passing offense, was developed to assist the running game. Basically, NU has been a run-first offense for quite some time now. But things have begun to change and that has some Wildcat fans concerned.
Arby Fields was expected by some to pick up right where Tyrell Sutton left off -- even inheriting his jersey number. And maybe this was too much to expect of a freshman. He showed signs of high-level play at times, but often struggled to find rhythm and sometimes disappeared from the field for quarters at a time. Arby finished with only 300 yards rushing.
Scott Concannon is a small bruising back with an uncanny ability to squirt through holes. But, similarly, never seemed to put together four quarters worth of quality football. Concannon played in every game, but compiled only 241 yards.
Jacob Schmidt is listed as the backup on the post-spring roster. The former walk-on stared two games at RB, but only finished with 181 yards on 56 carries.
As the search for a feature back continues, a door may have opened for true freshman Adonis Smith. Adonis was one of the best backs in Northern California last year. This is a wide open race and he'll have a shot. If NU gives him a roster spot, as opposed to redshirting him, expect to see Smith as a major component of the offense.
All signs point to a continued use of all backs until someone stands out as the leader. Fields is probably the favorite, and will be given the most opportunities early. But in an offense that is used to dominating running backs, Arby has big shoes to fill.
WR: Restocked and Reloaded
One of the hallmarks of the Northwestern spread offense is a seemingly never-ending train of competent, smart, possession receivers who have a knack for getting open quickly and allowing their QB to do his job. Never a superstar, and rarely knockout numbers, but the Wildcat wide receiver brings his lunch pail to work and gets ready to move the ball. NU was one of the best in the Big 10 in 3rd-down conversions in 2009, largely because of seniors Andrew Brewer, Zeke Markshausen, and this group of returning WRs.
Demetrius Fields has the largest big play potential. He can blaze in open space and will be the Wildcats deep threat. If Persa can work on his deep ball, Fields will be a major weapon. He is listed on the spring depth chart as the "X" receiver, which usually means that he is the go-to guy for Dan Persa.
Sidney Stewart is the teams leading returning receiver with 42 receptions last year. He and Jeremy Ebert will see a majority of the snaps as starters. The Cats are known for a wide rotation of receivers as well, so Charles Brown, Drew Moulton, and Brendan Barber should also see plenty of Ryan Field action.
Tony Jones is the only true Frosh who is likely to see playing time at wideout this season. Also freshman Venric Mark is looking like he may see some time in the return game. This kid can fly and will bring some excitement back to the special teams.
All in all, NU brings back a solid, yet unremarkable group of receivers to the fold. This is a formula that has worked for quite sometime now.
TE (Superback): Bringing Super Back to the Position
NU had not had a solid tight end since Jay Tant in the late nineties. During the 2000's the team toyed around with the "Superback" position, which amounts to basically a hybrid tight end/fullback. The superback has always been a solid, yet silent contributor to the offense. Until now.
Last year, Drake Dunsmore busted onto the scene and was third on the team in receptions and second in the Big 10 among tight ends. Fans around the county will remember his 66-yard TD run against Auburn in the Outback Bowl which personify this unique talent. His strength, speed, hands, and footwork are a prototype of the modern tight end. Drake is the only true All Conference candidate among the skill position players. Expect Drake to continue to play a major role in the offense, especially early in the season as Persa is getting his feet wet.
Josh Rooks will backup Drake and will also see a decent amount of time, especially in short yardage situations as a blocking TE or FB.
OL: Back and Ready for More
The Wildcats offensive line returns five starters from a group that really came together as the year went on. It played its best football in the closing stretch against Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Auburn. If this group continues to gel, the skill players will have plenty of time to do their job.
Across the front is Patrick Ward, Doug Bartels, Ben Burkett, Brian Mulroe, and Al Netter. All returning starters -- and none of them seniors. These guys are the cornerstone of this offense. Fitz preaches teamwork and trusting yourself and others. And nothing personifies this image better than this line. Very exciting things could happen here.
NU's defense, which I will preview in a week or so, will still be the squad counted upon to win games. There are a lot of question marks, particularly at QB and RB. But with 8 returning starters, there is no reason to believe that this offense cannot score the points necessary to put the Cats on New Years Day in 2011.
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