Northwestern and Texas Tech both arrive at the Ticketcity Bowl with identical records and similar season resumes. Northwestern limped into the end of November with a freshman backup Quarterback in Evan Watkins and a once-competent defense that suddenly went south. Texas Tech was given the scheduling gift of two non-conference games to finish the season, winning their final two games against Houston and Weber State. Tech suffered a brutal loss to Iowa State that mirrored NU's failure against Purdue. But the Red Raiders also notched a signature win in its belt by upsetting Missouri, who finished 10-2 and was the Insight Bowl opponent of the Cats' best victim, Iowa. NU and Tech have never played before today.
For the second year in a row, Northwestern rings in the New Year as the first kickoff of the American sports year. Last year's Outback Bowl Classic was the most talked about game of the Bowl Season last year -- and that emphasizes the importance to a program of playing on New Years Day. Last year NU-Auburn was head-to-head on TV with Penn State-LSU and West Virginia-Florida State (in Bobby Bowden's last game, no less). Yet the Cats and Tigers received great ratings because they put a fantastic product on the field and as a result, each earned great publicity on a national stage. While certain New Years games are more "must-see-TV" than others (and NU-Tech would certainly qualify as one of the others), if they play an interesting game, the casual fan will gravitate to it.
While NU is trying to win its first Bowl Game since the 1949 Rose Bowl, meanwhile Tech has seen recent success in Bowl Games including wins over Michigan State in last year's Alamo Bowl and Virginia in the 2008 Gator Bowl. Texas Tech has appeared in Bowl games in each of the last 11 seasons, the 7th longest active streak in the nation.
Injury Report:
The latest news for Northwestern is that Mike Trumpy is still a game-time decision for the Cats. Tech had lost two of its receivers for the season earlier on in the year, but otherwise appears to be pretty healthy for this afternoon. Having a five-week layoff will do that.
Weather:
Parts of Texas have seen a cold spell recently, the kickoff temp. for yesterday's Sun Bowl was 34. Dallas will be a little warmer today; in will be 43 at kickoff, which should rise to around 48 by the end of the game. There is a 10% chance of rain. Check out weather.com for more details.
When Northwestern has the ball:
This part of the game will be decided by Northwestern's ability to hold on to the ball. Both Even Watkins and Kain Colter demonstrated the ability to move the ball against Wisconsin -- NU did not punt in the first half. But the seven turnovers lead to the Cats' demise. Tech's defense is ranked 116th in the country in total defense and 85th in scoring defense.
Tech's defense is relatively better against the run than the pass. So theoretically, this plays to the strength of the Northwestern offense. There have been a lot of reports about how much Evan Watkins has improved during Bowl practice and he should certainly get his opportunities to prove himself. NU will still be a run first team, but will use its dynamic receivers to try to exploit a very young Tech secondary. They start a freshman and two sophomores as DBs. So they will need to rely on Senior safety LaRon Moore to lead them. There is not a lot of depth back there either; the four and five receiver sets will create mismatch problems.
Tech's defensive strength is at linebacker, where they should provide some challenges for NU's running game, especially if Trumpy is unable to play. Expect to see Colter at QB in order to keep these guys honest. Their front four also starts two freshmen. Tech's Defensive Ends are very small (at 233 and 248) and fast. So NU's tackles will have the challenge of protecting Watkins from a pair of slippery ends.
NU should be given opportunities to score as long as they hold on to the ball. But they will need to make sure to get into the end zone rather than settling for three.
When Tech has the Ball:
Of all of the variations of the spread offense, Texas Tech has arguably developed the most dynamic version of it. Senior Taylor Potts leads this year's version -- and has lead them to the 8th ranked passing offense in the country. He and his army of receivers will test the NU secondary and test them some more. NU will constantly be faced with the decision to cover them tight, and risk the deep ball and give them space and lot Tech 6-yard-out them to death. I would expect a slow death by slant.
Fortunately, given NU's recent track record of covering the run, Tech does not have much of a running game to speak of. Tech is 82nd in the country running the ball and uses it sparingly to "keep defenses honest." Tech's coaching staff will be faced with the very important decision to either stay true to their tried-and-true gameplan; or convert to run-heavy play-calling in an effort to exploit NU's recent weakness.
Given Tech's quick passing attack and lack of running game, the offensive line is largely irrelevant. But to the extent that they are part of the game, they are enormous. Left guard Lonnie Edwards and left tackle LaAdrian Waddle both weigh in at 322. I would expect NU to put Quentin Davie or another quicker pass rusher who can run around this mass of men -- rather than trying to run through them.
This matchup has more of the makings of a chess match than a track meet. There are a lot of match-ups to exploit for both teams and the coaching decisions may dictate the outcome more than the player talent.
Special Teams:
Special teams could play a major factor. Venric Mark may be the most exciting player on the field; and Stephan Demos has a career's worth of demons to exorcize in his final game. Both punters have similar stats. Tech has slightly better stats on punt returns; while NU, lead by Mark, is more effective on kick returns.
Final Analysis
Like most bowl games, this is a difficult one to call. Both teams will need to rely on their offense to cover up the inadequacies of their defense. This suggests that we could be in for a shootout. I think that the defenses will tighten up a little bit and that we will see a close game with scores in the high 30s. Venric Mark will return a kick or punt for a touchdown and Demos will be called upon to make a big kick. In the end, the Cats do enough to improve upon their poor finish and win a highly entertaining game 37-33.
Go Cats!!!