Ticketcity Bowl Preview: Northwestern (7-5) v. Texas Tech (7-5)

Northwestern and Texas Tech both arrive at the Ticketcity Bowl with identical records and similar season resumes.  Northwestern limped into the end of November with a freshman backup Quarterback in Evan Watkins and a once-competent defense that suddenly went south.  Texas Tech was given the scheduling gift of two non-conference games to finish the season, winning their final two games against Houston and Weber State.  Tech suffered a brutal loss to Iowa State that mirrored NU's failure against Purdue.  But the Red Raiders also notched a signature win in its belt by upsetting Missouri, who finished 10-2 and was the Insight Bowl opponent of the Cats' best victim, Iowa.  NU and Tech have never played before today.

For the second year in a row, Northwestern rings in the New Year as the first kickoff of the American sports year.  Last year's Outback Bowl Classic was the most talked about game of the Bowl Season last year -- and that emphasizes the importance to a program of playing on New Years Day.  Last year NU-Auburn was head-to-head on TV with Penn State-LSU and West Virginia-Florida State (in Bobby Bowden's last game, no less).  Yet the Cats and Tigers received great ratings because they put a fantastic product on the field and as a result, each earned great publicity on a national stage.  While certain New Years games are more "must-see-TV" than others (and NU-Tech would certainly qualify as one of the others), if they play an interesting game, the casual fan will gravitate to it.

While NU is trying to win its first Bowl Game since the 1949 Rose Bowl, meanwhile Tech has seen recent success in Bowl Games including wins over Michigan State in last year's Alamo Bowl and Virginia in the 2008 Gator Bowl.  Texas Tech has appeared in Bowl games in each of the last 11 seasons, the 7th longest active streak in the nation.

Injury Report:

The latest news for Northwestern is that Mike Trumpy is still a game-time decision for the Cats.  Tech had lost two of its receivers for the season earlier on in the year, but otherwise appears to be pretty healthy for this afternoon.  Having a five-week layoff will do that.

Weather:

Parts of Texas have seen a cold spell recently, the kickoff temp. for yesterday's Sun Bowl was 34.  Dallas will be a little warmer today; in will be 43 at kickoff, which should rise to around 48 by the end of the game.  There is a 10% chance of rain.  Check out weather.com for more details.

When Northwestern has the ball:

This part of the game will be decided by Northwestern's ability to hold on to the ball.  Both Even Watkins and Kain Colter demonstrated the ability to move the ball against Wisconsin -- NU did not punt in the first half.  But the seven turnovers lead to the Cats' demise.  Tech's defense is ranked 116th in the country in total defense and 85th in scoring defense.

Tech's defense is relatively better against the run than the pass.  So theoretically, this plays to the strength of the Northwestern offense.  There have been a lot of reports about how much Evan Watkins has improved during Bowl practice and he should certainly get his opportunities to prove himself.  NU will still be a run first team, but will use its dynamic receivers to try to exploit a very young Tech secondary.  They start a freshman and two sophomores as DBs.  So they will need to rely on Senior safety LaRon Moore to lead them.  There is not a lot of depth back there either; the four and five receiver sets will create mismatch problems.  

Tech's defensive strength is at linebacker, where they should provide some challenges for NU's running game, especially if Trumpy is unable to play.  Expect to see Colter at QB in order to keep these guys honest.  Their front four also starts two freshmen.  Tech's Defensive Ends are very small (at 233 and 248) and fast.  So NU's tackles will have the challenge of protecting Watkins from a pair of slippery ends.

NU should be given opportunities to score as long as they hold on to the ball.  But they will need to make sure to get into the end zone rather than settling for three.

When Tech has the Ball:

Of all of the variations of the spread offense, Texas Tech has arguably developed the most dynamic version of it.  Senior Taylor Potts leads this year's version -- and has lead them to the 8th ranked passing offense in the country.  He and his army of receivers will test the NU secondary and test them some more.  NU will constantly be faced with the decision to cover them tight, and risk the deep ball and give them space and lot Tech 6-yard-out them to death.  I would expect a slow death by slant.

Fortunately, given NU's recent track record of covering the run, Tech does not have much of a running game to speak of.  Tech is 82nd in the country running the ball and uses it sparingly to "keep defenses honest."  Tech's coaching staff will be faced with the very important decision to either stay true to their tried-and-true gameplan; or convert to run-heavy play-calling in an effort to exploit NU's recent weakness.

Given Tech's quick passing attack and lack of running game, the offensive line is largely irrelevant.  But to the extent that they are part of the game, they are enormous.  Left guard Lonnie Edwards and left tackle LaAdrian Waddle both weigh in at 322.  I would expect NU to put Quentin Davie or another quicker pass rusher who can run around this mass of men -- rather than trying to run through them.

This matchup has more of the makings of a chess match than a track meet.  There are a lot of match-ups to exploit for both teams and the coaching decisions may dictate the outcome more than the player talent.

Special Teams:

Special teams could play a major factor.  Venric Mark may be the most exciting player on the field; and Stephan Demos has a career's worth of demons to exorcize in his final game.  Both punters have similar stats.  Tech has slightly better stats on punt returns; while NU, lead by Mark, is more effective on kick returns.

Final Analysis

Like most bowl games, this is a difficult one to call.  Both teams will need to rely on their offense to cover up the inadequacies of their defense.  This suggests that we could be in for a shootout.  I think that the defenses will tighten up a little bit and that we will see a close game with scores in the high 30s.  Venric Mark will return a kick or punt for a touchdown and Demos will be called upon to make a big kick.  In the end, the Cats do enough to improve upon their poor finish and win a highly entertaining game 37-33.

Go Cats!!!

Game Preview: Illinois (5-5) (3-4) at Northwestern (7-3) (3-3)

Saturday November 20, 2010; 2:30 CST (ESPNU; ESPN3 online)

Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois



Photo Credit: Chicago Tribune.com

Safety First: In a shocking bit of news that came across the internet around 11:00 EST, the end zone shown above will be reserved for touchbacks, defensive and special teams touchdowns, and safeties.  It appears that after assuring the public that both sides had agreed to the layout of the field, someone balked after viewing the stadium first-hand.  There will be finger-pointing and questions unanswered, and this will undoubtedly add to the unique nature of this very unique game.  Hopefully, the special adjusted Big Ten Rules, which were announced this morning, will only affect the view of the game, and not the outcome.

This development certainly has the ability to affect fan enjoyment of the game.  Especially for those fans in the “right field” seats, who had better hope for a defensive struggle if they want to get their money’s worth out of their admission.  But in the end, just like at a Cubs home game, the seats on the first and third base lines will be premium viewing locations for most, if not all, of the scoring.  Those hoping to catch a special edition football that sails over the right field wall will be disappointed – as even the strongest wind is unlikely to carry a kickoff onto Addison.  Here’s hoping that the oddity of the special rules do not detract from what is surely an important game for both schools.

Northwestern, like it has done in the previous two Novembers, revived its season after a brutal loss by beating #13 Iowa 21-17 last weekend.  In doing so, All-Big Ten candidate Dan Persa rekindled the fire of the Cardiac Cats, which seemed to have dwindled this season.  Meanwhile, Illinois is coming off two gut-wrenching losses: a 67-65 triple-overtime track meet against Michigan, and a horrible loss to a Minnesota team that had lost nine straight.  Illinois combined scores over the last two games is 99-105; so take that for what it is worth.

This is the second year that the in-state rivals will play for the Land of Lincoln Trophy – currently held by Northwestern.  Illinois leads the all-time series by a count of 52-46-5; although NU leads 10-5 during the Expect Victory Era.  Illinois won the only previous game played between the two at Wrigley Field (then Cubs Park); a 29-0 shutout lead by the legendary Red Grange.  This is a series that has had very few surprises in the past, as the team with the better record entering the game has won 11 straight, and 16 out of the last 17 meetings.

Injury Report: Other than the obvious Dan Persa injury, the sheet reads the same as last week.  Backup OL Doug Bartels (Shoulder) and ?^th-string running back Jacob Schmidt (Ankle) are both listed as questionable.  For Illinois, backup CB Terry Hawthorne (Foot) is questionable.  LB Evan Frierson was dismissed from the team due to his trouble with the law.  Thanks to Collegeinjuryreport.com for the update.

Weather Report: Cold but dry.  High of 44, low of 38, which we may see once the sun goes down after halftime.  Light winds up to 12 mph coming in from center field.  See Weather.com for details, and dress warm.

When Northwestern has the ball:

Players to Watch

Evan Watkins: What to think about this?  Evan Watkins is a big kid.  At 6’6”, 245, he is 10 pounds heavier than Terrell Pryor and 5 pounds lighter than Cam Newton (at the same height as both).  He can run, but not fast.  So expect to see more Tim Tebow than what we have been used to with Danny.  His arm is very strong and he should be able to open up the offense a little more than Persa could if he is given time to throw.  Expect the Illini defense to put a lot of pressure on Evan early, especially on passing downs.  A big question is whether the Cats will keep up their offensive tempo, or slow down for the benefit of Evan.  The Cats ran 82 plays last week, the second most ever by NU in a regulation game.  I would expect to see less, especially with the modified sideline sharing.

Corey Liuget (DT): Liuget is a big quick dude at 6’3” 285.  He leads the team with 8.5 tackles for loss and is ninth in the Big Ten in both sacks and tackles for loss.  His 11 tackles against Michigan State was the highest total by an Illinois DT in 14 years.  In a position not generally known for racking up the stats, Liuget is a big force as a run-stopper.  The Cats will need to account for him in the middle if it wants to get the run game going – as the loss of Persa’s speed will limit the ability to run the option outside.

Drake Dunsmore: There was a Drake Dunsmore sighting last week in Evanston.  The Cats’ Superback, who has suffered through most of the season with injured ribs and tight coverage found his way open for 8 catches and 65 yards and surpassed 1000 yards for his career at NU.  Drake will see a lot of coverage from Senior LB Nate Bussey, who will be a far greater challenge than Iowa’s freshman LB last week.  Dunsmore’s short routes and ability to run after the catch will be an important outlet for Evan as he gets his feet wet.

In the trenches: NU’s line played very well against Iowa’s front four last week, eventually wearing them down to the point of being completely ineffective.  They will not be able to afford to wait that long on Saturday.  It will be time to pride-up and protect their young signal-caller.  Illinois has a freshman and a sophomore on its D-Line, which has been shredded in the last two weeks.  But NU will have to focus its attention on Liuget and Senior DE Clay Nurse.

Overall Impression: An actual quote from the Illinois SID game notes: “Illini defense has history of shutting down high powered offenses”.  The first bullet point then goes on to boast about holding Denard Robinson to just 62 yards.  No mention of the 67 points that they gave up in that game.  NU has scored the first touchdown in each of its 10 games, and I would expect a scripted first series designed to do the same.  But from that point on Evan will need to do the heavy lifting.  I would expect one big mistake and two little ones from Evan – it will be how the team responds that will make the difference.

When Illinois has the ball:

Nathan Scheelhaase (QB): Scheelhaase is a contender for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, and for good reason.  This was an Illinois team that was not expected to do much, and after a slow start, Scheelhaase lead the team to solid wins over PSU and Purdue, two teams that beat Northwestern.  Illinois does not throw the ball much; it has passed for more than 200 yards only four times this year, but in each of the last three games.  The run-pass ratio is often 2-1.  But Scheelhaase runs an efficient offense: they score off turnovers, convert third downs, and when they make mistakes, they are not big ones.  NU’s goal needs to be to force Scheelhaase to beat them with his arm.

NU Linebackers: The bottom line is that if NU wants to win this game, they are going to need to stop the Illini running game.  And that means the linebacker corps are going to need to step up.  Quentin Davie and Nate Williams are playing their last game in front of a friendly crowd, and they need to put on a show.  Putting pressure on the run game and keeping contain on the short passes.  A failure in this department means an NU loss.

Mikel Leshoure (RB): Leshoure, even more than Scheelhaase, has been the biggest surprise for the Illini this season.  He has six 100-yard games, and is 2^nd in the Big Ten, 14^th Nationally in rushing yards.  He is a fast and powerful runner – much like what the Cats saw out of Adam Robinson last week.  The Cats would be well served trying to be aggressive against Leshoure, because he can get 4-6 yard gains all day.

In the Trenches: Illinois O-Line is significantly larger than what the Cats faced against Iowa last week, so the NU line is going to need to put on its Big Boy pants tomorrow.  They are the primary reason for the Illini rushing attack.  NU’s D-Linemen will need to keep the Illini from getting their blockers to the second level and breaking big gains for Leshoure.  In passing situation, NU should be able to create trouble for Scheelhaase, but need to contain, for he is a running threat as well.

Overall Impression: Lost in the Illini defense giving up 105 points over the last 14 days is the fact that the offense scored 99 points in the same two games.  It is doubtful that Illinois has the firepower to hang 40 on the Cats, but 28-35 points are not out of the question if the Cats cannot stop the run.  With a rookie QB, the Cats cannot afford a shootout.

Intangibles: The Cats are playing for Persa and to protect their new guy, Evan.  The Illini are playing for their bowl eligibility and to protect their coach, Zook.  This will be a circus atmosphere, and each team will need to contain their emotion and focus on the game.  The team that remembers that the field is still 100 yards long, just like the gym back in Hickory, will be the team that will prevail.

Bottom Line:  The Cats game plan from last week, to wear down the defense will not work tomorrow.  They cannot afford to rely on Evan to lead a comeback.  Everyone will need to step up and do their part for the Cats – Watkins can afford a few mistakes – but no one else can.  The Illini need to avoid the meltdown that everyone expects to happen.  Something has to give, but the Cats prevail – in a close one. 

Cats win 23-20.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Cats – Illini prepare for Historic Wrigley Matchup – and Big Ten Rankings

The corner of Sheffield and Addison should have a carnival feel on Saturday, that which is normally reserved for a January Bowl game.  Here is your quick primer on preparing for Saturday, along with an Evan Watkins update and some other news and notes.

Photo Credit: Chicagotribune.com

First, if you have not seen the pictures of Wrigley Field decked out in purple, read no further and go to NuSports.com now.  But come back and read the rest of course.  Yes, the famous red Cubs marquis is painted purple.  Yes, there are dozens of purple and white ‘N’ flags donning the stadium.  And yes, there is a giant “N-Wildcat” painted just about where the right field grass would meet the infield dirt.  If these pictures do not get you excited for Saturday, nothing will.

The dimensions of the friendly confines have taken some hits this week as the media has questioned the safety of two points on the field.  First off, there is a section of the east end zone which is literally 18 inches from the right field wall.  The Cubs have installed what appears to be a six-inch pad, painted with ivy and the Allstate logo.  But to give you a visual idea of the space, the goalposts have been attached directly to the outfield wall.  I can certainly understand the safety concern, but I do not know that it will affect the game as much as it is being discussed.  There appears to be only about 5 feet on either side of the, nonexistent, goalpost which is encroached by the wall – before the wall tapers back on either side.  Players are already trained to avoid the goalpost itself; this is just a slightly larger target.  According to Teddy Greenstein with the Trib., both coaches signed off on these dimensions prior to agreeing to play the game.

In my mind the larger concern is the northwest corner of the west endzone.  There is a small section of field box seats between what would be the Cubs dugout and their bullpen.  The seats are protected by the famous brick wall, and thus immovable.  A tight corner route to that corner could take a receivers legs out, quickly, if he is not careful.  At least the right field wall is high enough to be seen.

Kudos to the Northwestern Athletic Department for doing this game justice.  This could have very easily been just a game at Wrigley Field.  But the AD has truly embraced the concept of “Chicago’s Big Ten team” and turned this into a major event – complete with Wildcat Alley on Sheffield beginning at 10:00 a.m. and not closing until 10:00 p.m. 

Fortunately, thanks to a rather bland college football weekend, and apparently NU’s win over Iowa, ESPN is bringing its mobile pregame show to the McDonalds parking lot across from the Stadium.  The set will open to students at 5:00 a.m. and alumni at 5:30 – before later opening to fans in general.  The show will begin on ESPNU at 8:00 CST, before being picked up by ESPN at 9:00 CST.  Get to the set by 10:45 to get the final breakdown of the Land of Lincoln game – and see if Lee Corso dons Willie’s head piece.  While there are obviously dozens of game for the Worldwide Leader to talk about on Saturday, this is a great opportunity for NU to be broadcast to the entire country for three hours.

NuSports.com has a special page of FAQs updated for this week – including information on GameDay.  Also, the Trib has a great news page on their website dedicated to the game.  Mother Nature looks like she is going to cooperate on Saturday, with cold, but dry weather.  So make sure to make your way out to Wrigleyville on Saturday – even if you do not have a ticket.

Interestingly there are competing views on whether this is truly a once-in-a-lifetime event.  The Cubs have made it clear that they would like to open the stadium for NU and Illinois to host their game there annually (this would be impossible in 2011 because the game is scheduled in October, when the Cubs, conceivably, could still be playing).  NU has said publically that they intend for this to be a one-time deal.  And Illinois has reported that they do not intend to give up a home game to travel to Chicago.  But I am certain that if the Cubs could get a permanent sponsor and some guaranteed money, the schools might reconsider this position.  In case you are wondering, while technically, all of the tickets were sold through the NU ticket office (except for the typical allotment to the visiting team), reports are that the fan split should be around 70-30, maybe 65-35 in favor of NU.

NU is going to learn a lot about its long-term future on Saturday as Evan Watkins, the quarterback of the 2012-2013 Wildcats is suddenly the QB of today.  Teddy Greenstein reports that Watkins does not lack confidence.  Having too much confidence can be a good thing and a bad thing.  It can lead to an amazing debut – for instance, C.J. Bacher’s first half against MSU in 2006 in his first start.  But it can also lead to interceptions, poor decisions, and a complete evisceration of that confidence.  I think that we can assume that Evan is going to make a few mistakes on Saturday.  It will be how he and his teammates react to those mistakes that will make the difference in the game.

It is no secret that Fitz’s Wildcats have not played well when they are either ranked or the center of attention.  This week they will be both.  Tina Akouris reports that the Cats are focused and ready to take on the challenge this Saturday.   This has been a roller coaster season for the Cats.  I think that most fans and followers of NU would admit that 8-4 and a mid-level bowl game was the height of their expectations for 2010 (it certainly was my prediction).  Now that eight wins is in the Cats sights, fans are starting to come around to the fact that while this was a season of disappointments, it is also a season of achievement and growth for the Cats.

Big Ten Power Rankings and Bowl Projections:

Once again, rankings are based on performance; Bowl Projections are based on where I think they will be in two weeks.

1 Wisconsin (Rose): The win against Indiana was a little much, but they proved their point.  Wisconsin should roll to Pasadena.

2 Ohio State (Sugar): Will face an angry Iowa team Saturday.  Here is a hint, just get their D-Line tired, you should be fine.

3 Michigan State (Capital One): Their meltdown in Iowa City was their one mistake – but still a great season for green and white.

4 Iowa (Outback): Not certain about this ranking.  Certainly belong ahead of NU on talent, but on conditioning, mental toughness and heart?

5 Northwestern (Insight): Certainly got its season back on track.  Can they continue their run of strong finishes?

6 Penn State (Gator): Barring a complete fail against Indiana, will secure this New Year’s Day slot for what might be Joe Pa’s swan song.

7 Michigan (Texas): Michigan will limp into the Bowl season with two humbling losses – a reminder of how far they still have to come.

8 Illinois (TicketCity): No one is praying for a BCS at large spot more than Illinois, who faces a trip to Detroit otherwise.

9 Purdue: Played well against Michigan, but needs to get healthy and regroup.

10 Indiana: After two valiant efforts at home, was embarrassed by Wisconsin.

11 Minnesota: A nice-heartfelt win, and I am happy for Weber that they accomplished that.  But this program has a long way to go.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Bittersweet Victory

In a ten minute span, Dan Persa single-handedly gave new hope to the Wildcat season and re-opened the door, slightly, to a New Year’s Day Bowl game.  But he paid a mighty price for his play, which both made Persa a martyr and thrust #25 Northwestern back into the national spotlight.

First, my bold statement of the day.  Northwestern and Iowa is the best rivalry in the Big Ten over the last 10 years, and it will only continue to get better.  With the small exception of a few Bielema-esque blowouts by Iowa, every game has been close and meant something to either or both teams.  Iowa fans have finally gotten over the “just Northwestern” stereotype of this game; making it must see TV for fans of both schools now.  Additionally, with both teams now competing annually for the West-ish Division Title, the games will take on even more meaning.  No other matchup in the Big Ten has provided as many thrills over the last ten years – not even OSU-Michigan.

Fitz was cited this week by Adonis Smith, who is gaining an odd reputation for talking out of turn, for saying that he hates Iowa.  He, of course, deflected the comment publically.  But in his off-the-field interview with Sam Valenzisi after the first half, he screamed in the voice of a man on a mission, “there are no moral victories in red-letter games.”  Yes, Iowa does mean more to NU, and this goes back to the early years of the Expect Victory Era.  Gary Barnett always said that NU should strive as a program to be as successful as Iowa – a reasonable goal, which did not raise the expectations to the level of OSU, Michigan, or PSU – but to a level where wins are expected, but still appreciated by a fan base that is loyal through thick and thin.  Randy Walker, and now Fitz have continued this mantra, and today Iowa is a “red-letter game.”

Like him or not, I have some new-found respect for Kirk Ferentz after Saturday.  In the handshake after the game, you could specifically hear him ask Fitz how Persa was doing.  This was a class move for Ferentz, who could have easily done the typical shake and turn.  The mutual respect that Fitz and this team have gained across the conference is infectious. 

Which brings us to the obvious: Dan Persa’s achilles.  It is one of those injuries that truly only occurs on a freak play, like the one we all saw on Saturday.  But Persa’s surgery was “textbook” and he is scheduled to be at full strength by late spring.  Teddy Greenstein reports in the Trib about the status of the situation.  Also, you can follow a humorous (or humerus perhaps?) account of the recovery at www.twitter.com/dannysachilles.  For what it is worth, Persa was named the Walter Camp National Player of the Week for his performance and finishes the season as the Big Ten’s all time leader in completion percentage for a season.

So who is Evan Watkins, and do the Cats stand a chance?  He is described as having great speed "for a guy his size", but will certainly not be as quick as Persa.  He can throw on the run pretty well and he rushed for 750 yards in 24 high school games.  He is 6'6" 245 -- which is 5 lbs. lighter than Cam Newton and 10 lbs. heavier than Terrell Pryor (both 6’6”); so yes, he is an enormous man.  Our offense is pretty plug and play for quick passes, so as long as he is at least competent with reading defenses, that should work.  Other than the 3rd&11 against IU, he has not completed a pass yet that was needed.  He also threw a brutal pass into double coverage on the next drive.  Evidently, Evan has a strong arm, but less touch, which may open up the vertical game in a way NU has not experimented with this year.  All in all, it sounds like Evan is more similar to Mike Kafka than Persa. 

In short, one of the biggest advantages is that Illinois has absolutely no film on Watkins (think Kafka vs. Minnesota 2008).  I would look for a few Newton/Tebow-style planned runs early to get him comfortable with the hits and the carries and also to open up Trumpy and the intermediate passing game.  I would also look for more read-option instead of straight run-option like NU has been doing (with limited success).  As long as the defense keeps the Cats within a touchdown, I would look for a pretty tight playbook until at least mid-way through the fourth quarter; both to get his confidence raised and also to limit the film on him in the event that the Cats win easily.  Obviously, Fitz and McCall will have to open things up if the Cats are down or close in the second half.  Good luck Evan!

In case anyone is wondering, McCall is preparing both true freshman QB’s, Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian, to serve in the backup role should something happen to Evan.

Which brings me, finally, to the game itself.  Without question, the defense played admirably and finally played tough for the entire game.  I would attribute the Iowa scores to a matter of, “it was bound to happen eventually,” rather than any sort of systemic lapse of focus.  The Cats missed an opportunity to stop Iowa on fourth day which led to the first half field goal.  Iowa’s first touchdown was set up by a pass to McNutt; Iowa literally ran the same play from the same formation – just to the opposite side for the touchdown.  So there were definitely some coverage issues for the Cats that the Hawks were exploiting.  Similarly, the DJK touchdown was one-on-one coverage with no safeties – and a four-man rush.  What the other six defenders were doing at the time is unknown.

Fitz has gone on record as saying that the reason for his success against Iowa has been the turnover battle.  Well, that was not the case Saturday, as the turnovers were even.  Instead, NU’s defense just outplayed Iowa’s offense in the end.  The run defense was suffocating at times, and more than adequate at others.  Stanzi made a terrible play by throwing the pick to Peters, but Peters still had to be there to make the play.  More than anything, the defense finished for the first time all year.  What do Vandy, Rice, CMU, Purdue, MSU and Indiana all have in common?  They all scored on their last (legitimate) possession against the Cats defense.  Congrats on not adding Iowa to that list.

The offense was as efficient as it could have been given the talent of Iowa’s defense.  It did have a missed FG, a brutal tipped interception, and two many drops.  It also had drives stalled by an illegal touching and an intentional grounding – both of which were good calls, but it was highly entertaining to hear Fitz yelling at the refs – “you guys have been terrible all day.”  But NU scored the first touchdown of the game for the 10^th game in a row and obviously made the two touchdown drives when it mattered.  Kudos to the team for making it a great Senior Day game.

Iowa has to be the biggest disappointment of the Big Ten this year.  At 7-3, they are looking 8-4 square in the face; in a year where they were an outside contender for a National Championship.  When Stanzi threw the interception, the team looked like it had already lost – and it had a 10-point lead.  It was almost as if Stanzi went for the kill shot on that pass because the team had nothing left. 

And Iowa’s defense, supposedly full of future NFL talent is an absolute fraud.  The Linebacker, #44, James Morris was getting burnt all day – but why was he covering NU’s wideouts?  The DBs were giving NU tons of cushion – apparently, to guard against our dangerous vertical attack.  And the defensive line should lose their scholarships.  If their DE’s cannot play for 60 minutes, they do not deserve to be out there.  The team should be ashamed of its conditioning program, because that was one of the primary reasons that the NU scoring drives were so easy.  On draft day, rather than showing clips of Adrian Clayborn sacking quarterbacks and blocking punts, Mel Kiper should show clips of him kneeling on the sidelines and keeping the hair out of his face while his mates were letting their Big Ten Title chances slip through their fingers.

Finally, cheers to the Seniors who had big days in their final appearance at Ryan Field:

·         Sidney Stewart – 5 catches, 46 yards.

·         Nate Williams – 5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 pass broken up, 1 QB hurry

·         Justan Vaughn – 4 tackles

·         Quentin Davie – 4 tackles

So, what does all of this mean for the Bowl picture?  While this win opened up a few more doors to New Year’s Day, winning this game means almost nothing when it comes to Bowl selection – as NU is likely still going to Texas to play in either the Texas Bowl or the TicketCity.com Bowl (formerly the Dallas Football Classic).  Why?

Assume that Iowa (OSU, Minny) and NU both finish out 1-1.  Iowa, despite having the same overall record and the head-to-head loss, will have a better conference record than NU – thus justifying the fourth bowl slot.  Assume PSU also finishes 1-1 (Indiana, MSU).  They will also get picked ahead of NU because of the same conference record and the head-to-head victory, notwithstanding the worse head-to-head record – not to mention the potential to host Joe Paterno’s last game.  Assume Michigan loses out (Wisconsin, OSU).  They would have a worse conference record and overall record, but is certainly the sexier team, especially given that they have not been bowling in two years.  The lack of a head-to-head will hurt NU in this situation.  In other words, NU gets pushed down to seventh, which is where they would have been had they never beaten Iowa to begin with.

But here is where is gets messed up.  What if all of the above happen, except NU beats Wisconsin.  The Big Ten would then only score one team in the BCS and the Gator Bowl would have its pick of Iowa (8-4, 5-3), NU (9-3, 5-3), PSU (8-4, 5-3), and Michigan (7-5, 3-5).   As a brand new Bowl game for the Big Ten, it has its pick of the litter – but the one person that it may never have a chance to host again is Joe Paterno – and I think that this is the direction it will go.  NU would then, likely, end up in Tempe for the Insight bowl.  Really the only hope for a “big” NYD game is a complete 0-2 meltdown by both Iowa and PSU.

There is a ton more to talk about this week with the Land of Lincoln game, Wrigley Field, ESPN Gameday and more Bowl prediction talk.  So keep checking up on EVR!

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com