Wrigley Game: The Aftermath

There is a lot to get to today as I squeeze in three days of work and this blog between a trip to Chicago and traveling for the holiday – so I will get right to it.

First off, I think I speak for the majority of NU fans (and Illini fans, obviously) when I say that I had an absolute blast on Saturday.  Regardless of the fingerpointing, the national publicity, the brutal run defense, etc., from a fan standpoint, this was a complete success.  Whether this truly was once in a lifetime, or whether this becomes the stepping stone for future events, it is certainly memorable for all who attended.

I sat behind a dad who had four young boys with him.  They were all old enough to understand football and will certainly always remember this moment.  They could go to dozens of Cubs games during their childhood.  They will always remember the NU-Wrigley Game.

The game, itself, was memorable for a number of reasons.  The first quarter was absolutely crazy.  I remarked at the end of it that it reminded me of the fourth quarter of the Outback Bowl.  Something was always happening.  Five touchdowns, four turnovers, a missed field goal, and a touchdown in the forbidden end zone.  While the pace of the game certainly settled down after that, the stadium was electric for the entire first hour.

The obvious criticism of the Cats was the run defense.  To say that this was a poor effort was an understatement – the Cats missed 31 tackles.  I was sitting in the “good” end zone and watched the majority of the game throguh binoculars.  It seemed like every play for Illinois a big hole opened up and suddenly Lushoure came marching through.

So what happened?  A unit by unit look explains a lot.  The Defensive Line accounted for six of the team’s seven tackles for loss.  So it is hard to say that they were not being aggressive and getting off blocks – in fact, a large amount of the missed tackles were DL tackles in the backfield.  But perhaps they were being too aggressive and allowing the holes to be opened.  Basically each play then became a crapshoot, where the Illini back was either going to get hit in the backfield or open up a big gain, because…

The Linebackers were nowhere to be found.  NU’s linebackers only recorded one tackle for loss and were consistantly out of position the entire game.  The Illini OC said that they noticed that the NU linebackers were overpersuing at the snap, which was opening up cutback lanes.  And that’s what they did all day: handoff to Lushoure, two steps left, cut back right, run through the gaping hole.  On the option runs, NU often only had one man covering two.  And when two backers were covering the play, they did not contain the pitch man. 

Of all the ways that NU could have lost this game, the lack of a run defense was the last thing that I would have ever considered to be the reason.  And the pass defense, while not really needed, played more than effectively.  Illinios ran 14 pass plays, completing sic, with two interceptions, three passes broken up, and three QB hurries.  Clearly the Illinois spreak offense had an effect on this as NU consistantly had to play three corners and two safeties, leaving only six big men to cover the run.  Maybe putting a safety on a receiver and adding a LB would have helped – but we will never know.

In the end, on the defensive side, Illinois ran 84 plays to NU’s 48 and had the ball for almost 42 minutes.  As one fan said in the concourse after the game, “Dan Persa don’t play defense.”  Even Danny boy could not have helped the Cats out of this one.

The Offensive, under the circumstances, was not horrible.  And the running game was actually quite effective.  Mike Trumpy had the longest NU run since 1983.  But he also averaged more than four yards per carry on his other 12 runs.  Adonis Smith avergaged 6.7 yards.  After you take out the three sacks, Watkins scrambled four times for 31 yards.  And Kain Colter ran three times, two for first downs.  While 48 plays is hardly enough time to develop an offense, NU only ran 25 true running plays (i.e., not counting sacks).  But, taking out the long Trumpy run, the Cats averaged 4.95 yards per carry on the other 24 runs.  But the Cats only ran the ball three plays in a row once in the entire game – on the second drive of the game.  Everyone expected that NU would need to run the ball well in order to stay in the game.  The problem was that they did run the ball well, but never got a chance to stay in control.

The passing game was about what we could have expected out of the situation.  Once Evan Watkins go the nerves out of his system he played pretty well, demonstrating a nice arm at times.  The first five pass plays were knocked-down pass, sack/fumble, 13 yard game, incompletion, interception.  After that, Watkins was 9 for 16 for 119 yards, one TD, no picks.  This would be good first half statistics.  Unfortunately, the Cats did not run enough plays to see this play out.  Watkins demonstrated that the Cats have something a little different to look forward to in 2012.  My early prediction is that Evan develops quite well in December and comes out poised and ready to lead the team in its bowl game.

A few notes on the special teams.  We finally got a chance to see Venric Mark really run – and even though you cannot like the fumble on the play, he broke tackles and made people miss – and almost scored in the forbidden zone.  Demos looked pretty solid, but could not get a good kickoff into the steady east-west wind. 

The gametime atmosphere was hard to describe.  Gameday got NU students out of bed and into Wrigleyville by 5:00 a.m.  Sheffield transformed into a portable Wildcat Alley.  The bars and restaurants were packed and house parties popped up all over the neighborhood.  It was, as Jim Phillips described his vision, a Bowl game in Chicago.

So what is the effect?  NU stated that the goal of this game is to increase ticket sales in Evanston.  This plan has been criticized because most outsiders assume that this means that NU hopes to convert fans.  I believe that this is not the case.  The point is to motivate existing fans.

Case in point, the most highly attended non-conference game since 1995 was the 1998 game against Duke, where NU lost 44-10.  The game drew more than 41,000.  This fact alone disproves a number of the myths about Northwestern attendance.  It was a game in September on, by all accounts and my memory, a nice day; it was a non-conference game; it was against a bad opponent; it was an opponent that was not close enough to bring a large contingent of its own, and it was a bad NU team.  My point being is that there are NU fans out there.  The Athletic Department does not need to create new fans, it needs to motivate the existing fan base.

So did this work?  Time will tell, and I can only speak from my own observations.  I saw college friends who live in the Chicago area who I do not normally see at games.  But more importantly, in addition to my trip from Canton, Ohio, I had friends in from New York City, Traverse City, MI, Nashville, TN, Austin, TX, St. Paul, MN, and Las Vegas.  So to the extent that was the goal – I would say that it was a success.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone, enjoy the turkey and the football and check back on Friday for what will probably be a depressing preview of the Wisconsin game.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Game Preview: Illinois (5-5) (3-4) at Northwestern (7-3) (3-3)

Saturday November 20, 2010; 2:30 CST (ESPNU; ESPN3 online)

Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois



Photo Credit: Chicago Tribune.com

Safety First: In a shocking bit of news that came across the internet around 11:00 EST, the end zone shown above will be reserved for touchbacks, defensive and special teams touchdowns, and safeties.  It appears that after assuring the public that both sides had agreed to the layout of the field, someone balked after viewing the stadium first-hand.  There will be finger-pointing and questions unanswered, and this will undoubtedly add to the unique nature of this very unique game.  Hopefully, the special adjusted Big Ten Rules, which were announced this morning, will only affect the view of the game, and not the outcome.

This development certainly has the ability to affect fan enjoyment of the game.  Especially for those fans in the “right field” seats, who had better hope for a defensive struggle if they want to get their money’s worth out of their admission.  But in the end, just like at a Cubs home game, the seats on the first and third base lines will be premium viewing locations for most, if not all, of the scoring.  Those hoping to catch a special edition football that sails over the right field wall will be disappointed – as even the strongest wind is unlikely to carry a kickoff onto Addison.  Here’s hoping that the oddity of the special rules do not detract from what is surely an important game for both schools.

Northwestern, like it has done in the previous two Novembers, revived its season after a brutal loss by beating #13 Iowa 21-17 last weekend.  In doing so, All-Big Ten candidate Dan Persa rekindled the fire of the Cardiac Cats, which seemed to have dwindled this season.  Meanwhile, Illinois is coming off two gut-wrenching losses: a 67-65 triple-overtime track meet against Michigan, and a horrible loss to a Minnesota team that had lost nine straight.  Illinois combined scores over the last two games is 99-105; so take that for what it is worth.

This is the second year that the in-state rivals will play for the Land of Lincoln Trophy – currently held by Northwestern.  Illinois leads the all-time series by a count of 52-46-5; although NU leads 10-5 during the Expect Victory Era.  Illinois won the only previous game played between the two at Wrigley Field (then Cubs Park); a 29-0 shutout lead by the legendary Red Grange.  This is a series that has had very few surprises in the past, as the team with the better record entering the game has won 11 straight, and 16 out of the last 17 meetings.

Injury Report: Other than the obvious Dan Persa injury, the sheet reads the same as last week.  Backup OL Doug Bartels (Shoulder) and ?^th-string running back Jacob Schmidt (Ankle) are both listed as questionable.  For Illinois, backup CB Terry Hawthorne (Foot) is questionable.  LB Evan Frierson was dismissed from the team due to his trouble with the law.  Thanks to Collegeinjuryreport.com for the update.

Weather Report: Cold but dry.  High of 44, low of 38, which we may see once the sun goes down after halftime.  Light winds up to 12 mph coming in from center field.  See Weather.com for details, and dress warm.

When Northwestern has the ball:

Players to Watch

Evan Watkins: What to think about this?  Evan Watkins is a big kid.  At 6’6”, 245, he is 10 pounds heavier than Terrell Pryor and 5 pounds lighter than Cam Newton (at the same height as both).  He can run, but not fast.  So expect to see more Tim Tebow than what we have been used to with Danny.  His arm is very strong and he should be able to open up the offense a little more than Persa could if he is given time to throw.  Expect the Illini defense to put a lot of pressure on Evan early, especially on passing downs.  A big question is whether the Cats will keep up their offensive tempo, or slow down for the benefit of Evan.  The Cats ran 82 plays last week, the second most ever by NU in a regulation game.  I would expect to see less, especially with the modified sideline sharing.

Corey Liuget (DT): Liuget is a big quick dude at 6’3” 285.  He leads the team with 8.5 tackles for loss and is ninth in the Big Ten in both sacks and tackles for loss.  His 11 tackles against Michigan State was the highest total by an Illinois DT in 14 years.  In a position not generally known for racking up the stats, Liuget is a big force as a run-stopper.  The Cats will need to account for him in the middle if it wants to get the run game going – as the loss of Persa’s speed will limit the ability to run the option outside.

Drake Dunsmore: There was a Drake Dunsmore sighting last week in Evanston.  The Cats’ Superback, who has suffered through most of the season with injured ribs and tight coverage found his way open for 8 catches and 65 yards and surpassed 1000 yards for his career at NU.  Drake will see a lot of coverage from Senior LB Nate Bussey, who will be a far greater challenge than Iowa’s freshman LB last week.  Dunsmore’s short routes and ability to run after the catch will be an important outlet for Evan as he gets his feet wet.

In the trenches: NU’s line played very well against Iowa’s front four last week, eventually wearing them down to the point of being completely ineffective.  They will not be able to afford to wait that long on Saturday.  It will be time to pride-up and protect their young signal-caller.  Illinois has a freshman and a sophomore on its D-Line, which has been shredded in the last two weeks.  But NU will have to focus its attention on Liuget and Senior DE Clay Nurse.

Overall Impression: An actual quote from the Illinois SID game notes: “Illini defense has history of shutting down high powered offenses”.  The first bullet point then goes on to boast about holding Denard Robinson to just 62 yards.  No mention of the 67 points that they gave up in that game.  NU has scored the first touchdown in each of its 10 games, and I would expect a scripted first series designed to do the same.  But from that point on Evan will need to do the heavy lifting.  I would expect one big mistake and two little ones from Evan – it will be how the team responds that will make the difference.

When Illinois has the ball:

Nathan Scheelhaase (QB): Scheelhaase is a contender for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, and for good reason.  This was an Illinois team that was not expected to do much, and after a slow start, Scheelhaase lead the team to solid wins over PSU and Purdue, two teams that beat Northwestern.  Illinois does not throw the ball much; it has passed for more than 200 yards only four times this year, but in each of the last three games.  The run-pass ratio is often 2-1.  But Scheelhaase runs an efficient offense: they score off turnovers, convert third downs, and when they make mistakes, they are not big ones.  NU’s goal needs to be to force Scheelhaase to beat them with his arm.

NU Linebackers: The bottom line is that if NU wants to win this game, they are going to need to stop the Illini running game.  And that means the linebacker corps are going to need to step up.  Quentin Davie and Nate Williams are playing their last game in front of a friendly crowd, and they need to put on a show.  Putting pressure on the run game and keeping contain on the short passes.  A failure in this department means an NU loss.

Mikel Leshoure (RB): Leshoure, even more than Scheelhaase, has been the biggest surprise for the Illini this season.  He has six 100-yard games, and is 2^nd in the Big Ten, 14^th Nationally in rushing yards.  He is a fast and powerful runner – much like what the Cats saw out of Adam Robinson last week.  The Cats would be well served trying to be aggressive against Leshoure, because he can get 4-6 yard gains all day.

In the Trenches: Illinois O-Line is significantly larger than what the Cats faced against Iowa last week, so the NU line is going to need to put on its Big Boy pants tomorrow.  They are the primary reason for the Illini rushing attack.  NU’s D-Linemen will need to keep the Illini from getting their blockers to the second level and breaking big gains for Leshoure.  In passing situation, NU should be able to create trouble for Scheelhaase, but need to contain, for he is a running threat as well.

Overall Impression: Lost in the Illini defense giving up 105 points over the last 14 days is the fact that the offense scored 99 points in the same two games.  It is doubtful that Illinois has the firepower to hang 40 on the Cats, but 28-35 points are not out of the question if the Cats cannot stop the run.  With a rookie QB, the Cats cannot afford a shootout.

Intangibles: The Cats are playing for Persa and to protect their new guy, Evan.  The Illini are playing for their bowl eligibility and to protect their coach, Zook.  This will be a circus atmosphere, and each team will need to contain their emotion and focus on the game.  The team that remembers that the field is still 100 yards long, just like the gym back in Hickory, will be the team that will prevail.

Bottom Line:  The Cats game plan from last week, to wear down the defense will not work tomorrow.  They cannot afford to rely on Evan to lead a comeback.  Everyone will need to step up and do their part for the Cats – Watkins can afford a few mistakes – but no one else can.  The Illini need to avoid the meltdown that everyone expects to happen.  Something has to give, but the Cats prevail – in a close one. 

Cats win 23-20.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Cats – Illini prepare for Historic Wrigley Matchup – and Big Ten Rankings

The corner of Sheffield and Addison should have a carnival feel on Saturday, that which is normally reserved for a January Bowl game.  Here is your quick primer on preparing for Saturday, along with an Evan Watkins update and some other news and notes.

Photo Credit: Chicagotribune.com

First, if you have not seen the pictures of Wrigley Field decked out in purple, read no further and go to NuSports.com now.  But come back and read the rest of course.  Yes, the famous red Cubs marquis is painted purple.  Yes, there are dozens of purple and white ‘N’ flags donning the stadium.  And yes, there is a giant “N-Wildcat” painted just about where the right field grass would meet the infield dirt.  If these pictures do not get you excited for Saturday, nothing will.

The dimensions of the friendly confines have taken some hits this week as the media has questioned the safety of two points on the field.  First off, there is a section of the east end zone which is literally 18 inches from the right field wall.  The Cubs have installed what appears to be a six-inch pad, painted with ivy and the Allstate logo.  But to give you a visual idea of the space, the goalposts have been attached directly to the outfield wall.  I can certainly understand the safety concern, but I do not know that it will affect the game as much as it is being discussed.  There appears to be only about 5 feet on either side of the, nonexistent, goalpost which is encroached by the wall – before the wall tapers back on either side.  Players are already trained to avoid the goalpost itself; this is just a slightly larger target.  According to Teddy Greenstein with the Trib., both coaches signed off on these dimensions prior to agreeing to play the game.

In my mind the larger concern is the northwest corner of the west endzone.  There is a small section of field box seats between what would be the Cubs dugout and their bullpen.  The seats are protected by the famous brick wall, and thus immovable.  A tight corner route to that corner could take a receivers legs out, quickly, if he is not careful.  At least the right field wall is high enough to be seen.

Kudos to the Northwestern Athletic Department for doing this game justice.  This could have very easily been just a game at Wrigley Field.  But the AD has truly embraced the concept of “Chicago’s Big Ten team” and turned this into a major event – complete with Wildcat Alley on Sheffield beginning at 10:00 a.m. and not closing until 10:00 p.m. 

Fortunately, thanks to a rather bland college football weekend, and apparently NU’s win over Iowa, ESPN is bringing its mobile pregame show to the McDonalds parking lot across from the Stadium.  The set will open to students at 5:00 a.m. and alumni at 5:30 – before later opening to fans in general.  The show will begin on ESPNU at 8:00 CST, before being picked up by ESPN at 9:00 CST.  Get to the set by 10:45 to get the final breakdown of the Land of Lincoln game – and see if Lee Corso dons Willie’s head piece.  While there are obviously dozens of game for the Worldwide Leader to talk about on Saturday, this is a great opportunity for NU to be broadcast to the entire country for three hours.

NuSports.com has a special page of FAQs updated for this week – including information on GameDay.  Also, the Trib has a great news page on their website dedicated to the game.  Mother Nature looks like she is going to cooperate on Saturday, with cold, but dry weather.  So make sure to make your way out to Wrigleyville on Saturday – even if you do not have a ticket.

Interestingly there are competing views on whether this is truly a once-in-a-lifetime event.  The Cubs have made it clear that they would like to open the stadium for NU and Illinois to host their game there annually (this would be impossible in 2011 because the game is scheduled in October, when the Cubs, conceivably, could still be playing).  NU has said publically that they intend for this to be a one-time deal.  And Illinois has reported that they do not intend to give up a home game to travel to Chicago.  But I am certain that if the Cubs could get a permanent sponsor and some guaranteed money, the schools might reconsider this position.  In case you are wondering, while technically, all of the tickets were sold through the NU ticket office (except for the typical allotment to the visiting team), reports are that the fan split should be around 70-30, maybe 65-35 in favor of NU.

NU is going to learn a lot about its long-term future on Saturday as Evan Watkins, the quarterback of the 2012-2013 Wildcats is suddenly the QB of today.  Teddy Greenstein reports that Watkins does not lack confidence.  Having too much confidence can be a good thing and a bad thing.  It can lead to an amazing debut – for instance, C.J. Bacher’s first half against MSU in 2006 in his first start.  But it can also lead to interceptions, poor decisions, and a complete evisceration of that confidence.  I think that we can assume that Evan is going to make a few mistakes on Saturday.  It will be how he and his teammates react to those mistakes that will make the difference in the game.

It is no secret that Fitz’s Wildcats have not played well when they are either ranked or the center of attention.  This week they will be both.  Tina Akouris reports that the Cats are focused and ready to take on the challenge this Saturday.   This has been a roller coaster season for the Cats.  I think that most fans and followers of NU would admit that 8-4 and a mid-level bowl game was the height of their expectations for 2010 (it certainly was my prediction).  Now that eight wins is in the Cats sights, fans are starting to come around to the fact that while this was a season of disappointments, it is also a season of achievement and growth for the Cats.

Big Ten Power Rankings and Bowl Projections:

Once again, rankings are based on performance; Bowl Projections are based on where I think they will be in two weeks.

1 Wisconsin (Rose): The win against Indiana was a little much, but they proved their point.  Wisconsin should roll to Pasadena.

2 Ohio State (Sugar): Will face an angry Iowa team Saturday.  Here is a hint, just get their D-Line tired, you should be fine.

3 Michigan State (Capital One): Their meltdown in Iowa City was their one mistake – but still a great season for green and white.

4 Iowa (Outback): Not certain about this ranking.  Certainly belong ahead of NU on talent, but on conditioning, mental toughness and heart?

5 Northwestern (Insight): Certainly got its season back on track.  Can they continue their run of strong finishes?

6 Penn State (Gator): Barring a complete fail against Indiana, will secure this New Year’s Day slot for what might be Joe Pa’s swan song.

7 Michigan (Texas): Michigan will limp into the Bowl season with two humbling losses – a reminder of how far they still have to come.

8 Illinois (TicketCity): No one is praying for a BCS at large spot more than Illinois, who faces a trip to Detroit otherwise.

9 Purdue: Played well against Michigan, but needs to get healthy and regroup.

10 Indiana: After two valiant efforts at home, was embarrassed by Wisconsin.

11 Minnesota: A nice-heartfelt win, and I am happy for Weber that they accomplished that.  But this program has a long way to go.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Oh the Possibilities…

I am an absolute nut for thinking through bowl-game scenarios.  I love the politicking and the money and the team comparisons.  I love thinking through where Northwestern will end up depending on specific outcomes to specific games.  Yes, I am a masochist.

But I am going to use that passion for good instead of evil today and officially begin the hype wagon for the Northwestern-Illinois game at Wrigley Field, which could have far more relevance than anyone could have expected.

To be straightforward about bowl placement, if you are not in a BCS Bowl or playing on New Year’s Day, it does not really matter where you play or who you play.  There is no discernable difference in exposure or importance between the Insight Bowl (Big Ten #5, Dec. 28) and the Texas Bowl (Big Ten #6, Dec. 29).  But playing on New Year’s Day is Big Candy.  And with five Big Ten games on NYD, it will be one big commercial for the conference and its participating schools.

Start by assuming that the “Big Four” (Wisconsin, MSU, OSU, and Iowa) do not get upset and the Ohio State-Iowa game results in a situation that puts two Big Ten teams in BCS Bowls.  There are a lot of things that need to happen to get here, many of which involve teams outside the Big Ten – but work with me here; I am trying to develop hype.

For example, this scenario might put Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin in the Sugar Bowl.  The Capital One Bowl and the Outback Bowl would fight over MSU and Iowa.  Which leaves the Gator Bowl as the next selection (you see where I am going with this). 

As a side note, you can imagine the scenario where an NU upset of either Iowa or Wisconsin (but not both) would actually put NU in a worse bowl game (i.e., not on NYD) by knocking the second Big Ten team out of the BCS at-large spot – oops!

Also imagine, now, that NU beats PSU in Happy Valley this weekend and Illinois beats Michigan (along with Minnesota and Fresno).  We then have the following scenarios:  Penn State is at best 6-6; so are Purdue and Michigan.  This is critical because of the rule that a team cannot be selected ahead of another team with at least two more wins.  Sadly, one of these three teams will back into a NYD appearance in the Dallas Football Classic (Big Ten #7). 

This means that NU and Illinois would be playing head-to-head for the right to play in the Gator Bowl on New Year’s Day.   The winner would finish the season 8-4; the loser, 7-5.

Now, a lot could happen between now and then.  But this scenario really requires no major upsets to occur.  If NU and Illinois take care of business this weekend, look for the hype machine to build up steam between Sunday and November 20.  In any event, this will be the first time in a long time that the NU-Illinois game carries actual relevance for both teams – as opposed to one just trying to ruin the other’s season.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com