I am an absolute nut for thinking through bowl-game scenarios. I love the politicking and the money and the team comparisons. I love thinking through where Northwestern will end up depending on specific outcomes to specific games. Yes, I am a masochist.
But I am going to use that passion for good instead of evil today and officially begin the hype wagon for the Northwestern-Illinois game at Wrigley Field, which could have far more relevance than anyone could have expected.
To be straightforward about bowl placement, if you are not in a BCS Bowl or playing on New Year’s Day, it does not really matter where you play or who you play. There is no discernable difference in exposure or importance between the Insight Bowl (Big Ten #5, Dec. 28) and the Texas Bowl (Big Ten #6, Dec. 29). But playing on New Year’s Day is Big Candy. And with five Big Ten games on NYD, it will be one big commercial for the conference and its participating schools.
Start by assuming that the “Big Four” (Wisconsin, MSU, OSU, and Iowa) do not get upset and the Ohio State-Iowa game results in a situation that puts two Big Ten teams in BCS Bowls. There are a lot of things that need to happen to get here, many of which involve teams outside the Big Ten – but work with me here; I am trying to develop hype.
For example, this scenario might put Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin in the Sugar Bowl. The Capital One Bowl and the Outback Bowl would fight over MSU and Iowa. Which leaves the Gator Bowl as the next selection (you see where I am going with this).
As a side note, you can imagine the scenario where an NU upset of either Iowa or Wisconsin (but not both) would actually put NU in a worse bowl game (i.e., not on NYD) by knocking the second Big Ten team out of the BCS at-large spot – oops!
Also imagine, now, that NU beats PSU in Happy Valley this weekend and Illinois beats Michigan (along with Minnesota and Fresno). We then have the following scenarios: Penn State is at best 6-6; so are Purdue and Michigan. This is critical because of the rule that a team cannot be selected ahead of another team with at least two more wins. Sadly, one of these three teams will back into a NYD appearance in the Dallas Football Classic (Big Ten #7).
This means that NU and Illinois would be playing head-to-head for the right to play in the Gator Bowl on New Year’s Day. The winner would finish the season 8-4; the loser, 7-5.
Now, a lot could happen between now and then. But this scenario really requires no major upsets to occur. If NU and Illinois take care of business this weekend, look for the hype machine to build up steam between Sunday and November 20. In any event, this will be the first time in a long time that the NU-Illinois game carries actual relevance for both teams – as opposed to one just trying to ruin the other’s season.
Go Cats!
I think the Gator Bowl is the goal right now, but I disagree that it doesn't matter which bowl you play in or who you face if it's not in a BCS bowl. Opponent matters significantly because of national perception. For example, this year, having to face a team like Baylor with no name recognition and who most casual fans probably assume isn't good wouldn't do much to help national perception of our program. If it's Texas, on the other hand, people will be more included to tune and years down the road, not as many people will remember that Texas wasn't very good that year. The Big 12 is going to be tricky like that this year come bowl season, though the SEC will always have the name recognition that will draw attention and perception.
ReplyDeleteNow, for the big name programs it may not matter as much, but I think it's still a huge deal for Northwestern.
As for the individual bowls, I think there's a huge difference between some of them. The Dallas Football Classic will be seen by nobody since it's on ESPNU at the same time as 3 more attractive Big Ten bowl games. The Insight Bowl has its own timeslot at night on a weekday, which is always big for ratings (something that still very much helps Northwestern in terms of perception and recruiting). The Texas Bowl has its own time slot, as well, but will be on at 5 PM central time during the week.