Saturday, October 30, 2010 2:30 CST (ABC/ESPN2)
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| Photo credit: Pennstategameday.com |
Beaver Stadium, State College, PA
Northwestern is bowl eligible after a win in Bloomington that was not as close as the final 20-17 score indicated. The defense absolutely stymied an offense that was averaging more than 31 points per game. Penn State is coming off a primetime win against a Michigan team that is in a downward spiral. NU is 3-10 all time against Penn State, including only one win in State College, in 2004.
There are some major storylines going into this game. Obviously, Joe Paterno is coaching to win his 400th game as a head coach, joining only two others in this elite club. Losing to NU would mean that PSU only has one legitimate opportunity to reach that goal in this season (against Indiana) as they still play OSU and MSU.
Additionally, NU quarterback Dan Persa has recovered well from a minor concussion sustained in the fourth quarter against Indiana. He was cleared by doctors to play and has been practicing at full strength since Wednesday. Whether he will be hesitant with the run, or if he will continue to give 100% will be key. Dan is also playing near his hometown of Bethlehem, PA – his mother went to Penn State, a school who did not recruit him. Joe Paterno said this week that he wishes he would have recruited Persa more aggressively.
Finally, Penn State is going into the game with a QB controversy on its hands. Freshman Robert Bolden has sat out with a concussion of his own since mid-way through their game against Minnesota two weeks ago. Junior Matt McGloin started last week against Michigan and led them to victory. More on the PSU quarterback situation below.
Injury Report: Dan Persa (concussion) is expected to play, but technically is listed as probable. Jacob Schmidt (ankle) is doubtful, but had already been losing carries to Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith. Scott Concannon, who basically has fallen to the 5th RB, is out with a knee injury. Another week of good news for the Cats.
Penn State has had quite a few injuries to deal with. Kevin Haplea (TE) is a freshman who is starting his first game in place of Andrew Szczerba (back) and Garry Gilliam (knee), who are both out for the year. Last year’s starting guard Lou Eliades is also out with a knee injury. Safety Nick Sukay tore a pectoral muscle and is also out for the year. Robert Bolden (QB) is probable as he continues to recover from his concussion. Finally, Jack Crawford (DE) has been upgraded to probable for the NU game with a foot injury. There are also a handful of non-starters who will miss Saturday’s game. Thanks to College Injury Report.com for the injury report.
Weather Report: There is a 50% chance of rain, but not cold enough to turn into snow. Wind should not be much of an issue, at least not nearly as much as the last two weeks. If the rain holds off, the mid-40’s kickoff temp should make for a chilly but comfortable game. Keep up to date with Weather.com
When Northwestern has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Dan Persa: Persa was a little off against Indiana, and for the first time all season is not the nation’s leader in completion percentage. Penn State’s secondary is strong and has only given up more than 230 yards one time all season – to Minnesota, who also had 13 more attempts than anyone else. At corner PSU starts D’Anton Lynn, who has recorded two of PSU’s seven interceptions. At the other corner, there is not as much experience, and it gets weaker as you go down the depth chart. Expect NU to work the short passing game to beat the younger corners, because PSU has one of the best strong safeties in the conference with Drew Astorino. The other safety is Andrew Dailey, who is a senior, but only has two career starts in place of the injured Nick Sukay. PSU has also had trouble with running quarterbacks, so if they bring someone in to spy on Persa, it should open up some alleys for passing the ball. Dan has made some of the better scrambles of the year over the last two weeks, and PSU will have to contain that first and worry about the passing game second.
Ollie Ogbu (DT): This senior co-captain is one of the most experienced players on PSU’s team. He has five career sacks, but none this year; although he has recorded 5 ½ tackles for loss. He is a big run-stopper that NU’s newly rejuvenated offensive line will need to be able to move if the running game is to succeed. Ogbu is the best player on this line, so if the Cats can contain him, they should be able to continue their recent success running the ball. But if Ogbu can shed his blocks, he will be a nightmare for Trumpy and Smith all day.
Mike Trumpy: Given the style of NU’s offense and the skill of the Cats’ defense, you have to expect about 185 yards passing and 35-50 yards (net) rushing from Dan Persa. If the Cats are passing more than that, they are losing anyway. This means that the running game, and in particular, Mike Trumpy, will be counted on the grind out the yards to put the Cats in position to win the game. Linebacker U is not as solid in that position as it has been in the past and Andrew Dailey is quite inexperienced as a free safety. So if Trumpy can get past the big uglies, he may be able to break some longer runs – much like he did last week against IU. Trumpy (or Adonis, I suppose) will need 20-24 carries and 150 yards for the Cats to win. He finally has the experience and confidence to accomplish this.
In the trenches: Which brings us to the most important matchup of this game. Penn State has older players on their D-Line (two seniors and two junior starters), but NU has more experience (all five returning starters, as compared to two of four). PSU has recorded nine sacks all year, but only two against Big Ten competition. This has been the Achilles heel of the NU offense all year, but Persa has pulled some magical plays out in dire situations in the last two weeks. PSU has also given up some large rushing numbers to Illinois, Michigan and Alabama – but been pretty stout against Minnesota and Iowa. In other words, for as important as this matchup will be – it is equally as mysterious.
Overall impression: NU will need to be very methodical on offense. I foresee a lot of long drives and third-down conversions. This will mean that some drives will stall around midfield. But as long as they can get the field position flipped in their favor a few times, NU should be able to squeak in some scores. If NU commits more than 5 holding/false start penalties, they will lose.
When Penn State has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Evan Royster (RB): Royster became PSU’s all time leading rusher last week in a 150-yard effort. But he has not had the season that everyone expected, as it was anticipated that he would reach that mark somewhere around week 4. He has only cleared 60 yards twice and in two games was not even the team’s leading rusher. But his two big games were monster games with 187 against Temple to go with the Michigan game. If NU can play as well against the run as it has – thus forcing PSU to throw the ball more, NU will be able to generate some stops and maybe even some turnovers.
Bryce McNaul: McNaul continues to emerge as the best NU defender, recording another 11 tackles against Indiana. He is third on the team in tackles, despite missing the first two games and seeing limited action until the Big Ten season. There is no question that his recent success is directly linked to the Cats recent play against the run. McNaul’s inspired play will be a major factor in tomorrow’s game.
PSU’s QB: Penn State will not win tomorrow’s game based on its quarterback decision. But it may be the reason that they lose the game. Bolden’s performances have been nothing to write home about, and McGloin numbers last week must be tempered by the fact that he was playing against a high school defense. PSU does a nice job spreading the ball around to its receivers, which is a nice asset. But whoever is named the starter must flush out the fear that he will be benched and play with confidence in order to succeed.
In the trenches: PSU starts five seniors across the defensive line, but it is one of the smaller lines in the Big Ten, averaging just under 301 lbs. Kevin Watt is starting to play very well at end, and NU saw a lot of success pressuring the QB by playing Quentin Davie at end in passing situations. NU’s rotation of lineman will keep PSU on their toes and at times will keep the quarterback with happy feet. Penn State has given up only seven sacks, but all of them have been in the last five games. Both of these units are strong but not dominating.
Overall Impression: Both of these teams have seen some success in this aspect of the game, but it is far from perfection. PSU has scored only two combined touchdowns against Alabama, Temple, Iowa and Illinois. NU performed well against a high-scoring offense last week, it should be able to stop a low-scoring unit this week.
Intangibles: Joe Paterno is playing for his 400th win at home. Nothing else needs to be said. The weather should not be an issue.
Bottom Line: Both of these teams have similar credentials to last year, with the exception of the quarterback. NU was forced to play an unprepared Dan Persa for two and a half quarters and did not score during that time. This year, PSU has the weakness at quarterback. I see the same sort of game playing out with the opposite result. The game remains close and low scoring through three quarters; Jo Pa replaces the quarterback in an effort to jump start the offense; and this turns out to be an ill-fated decision. The Cats score their first touchdown of the game late and pull out the win.
Cats win 16-13.
Go Cats!
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