Game Preview: Northwestern (1-0) vs. Eastern Illinois (1-0 – FCS)

Saturday September 10, 2011, 2:30 CST (BTN)

Ryan Field
fansonly.com

Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois.

Northwestern comes off its biggest non-conference road win in 16 years.  Eastern, last week, won a stirring come-from-behind victory against rival Illinois State in the 100^th playing of the Mid-America Classic.  Eastern is the seventh current FCS team that NU has played; and the Cats are 6-1 in those games.  Eastern and NU have never played.

It is generally very difficult to do an in depth preview of a game such as this.  Generally, the goal is to show where mismatches may occur and discuss key player match-ups.  But NU has so many mismatches in size, skill, and strength; it is difficult to narrow down the keys to the game.  Rather this post will focus on Eastern’s strengths and the spots where NU may have problems if the Cats do not come out sharp on Saturday.

Injury Report

Mike Trumpy - doubtful

Of course, Dan Persa is listed as questionable for tomorrow’s game.  It is highly unlikely that he will play.  The big news, however, is that Mike Trumpy is doubtful for Saturday’s game after a concussion.  EVR has yet to find where the concussion was suffered, but can only assume that it happened at practice.  This will be something to keep an eye on.  Cat fans will see a steady dose of Adonis Smith and Jacob Schmidt.  Also, expect to be introduced formally to Treyvon Green tomorrow.  As reported yesterday, Jack DiNardo is out with a leg injury.  Collin Ellis remains out with his broken finger.  Tony Jones, Roderick Goodlow, Brian Arnfelt, Jared Carpenter and Mike Bolden all were unavailable for BC with various injuries and are questionable for Eastern.  Arnfelt is significant because he would have played tomorrow with DiNardo’s injury, leaving the Cats a little thin at DT.

Weather Report: The game-time forecast is mid-seventies with a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Check with the Weather Channel for updates on the weather.

Inside the Matchups

When NU has the ball, expect to see a heavy dose of running the football.  NU was able to overpower the BC front seven for 227 yards last week.  The Eastern front has some experience, but is small – especially on the outside.  Eastern’s strength is at DT where they have two large tackles, in Jon Voytilla and Roosevelt Holliday.  If they can absorb their blockers at the line of scrimmage, it could allow small, but speedy senior linebackers Cory Leman and Gordy Kickles to make some stops in the backfield.  That said, Eastern gave up 152 yards rushing to ISU last week – recording only one tackle for a loss.

Kain Colter
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NU is not going to have quite the size advantage on the outside that BC had against the Cats last weekend, but expect Colter to attack sophomore corner Tavares Crawford, who at 5’10” 169, will be dwarfed by Rashad Lawrence or especially Christian Jones.  The key in the EIU secondary is senior rover Nick Martinez.  A big and strong safety, Martinez had two key interceptions last week.  He will be responsible for keeping NU from throwing the deep ball.  EIU gave up 240 yards through the air against ISU.

When it comes down to it, even without Persa and Trumpy, the Cats should simply overpower the Panthers with their size advantages on offense.  One other key mismatch to watch is Drake Dunsmore, who will have a huge size advantage if he is covered by one of the smaller Panther corners.

Jimmy Garoppolo
bleacherreport.com

When EIU has the ball, this is an offense that can move the ball through the air, which, of course, was a problem for the Cats against BC.  Sophomore QB Jimmy Garoppolo went 25-34 for 305 yards and 3 TD’s last week against ISU.  Coming off a week where NU gave up huge passing yardage to an otherwise overmatched Chase Rettig, this poses a potential problem.  Garoppolo, like Rettig, is not a running quarterback, so pressure will be key to stopping him.  Garoppolo was sacked twice last week.

The favorite Panther target is senior flanker Lorence Ricks, who brought in seven catches for 114 yards and a score in the ISU win.  Ricks stands 6’1” but only 176 pounds, so he will need to find himself open as he does not have a weight advantage over either Mabin or Matthews.  Eastern, like NU distributes the ball well in its spread offense.  So the depth of NU’s secondary will be tested more than it was against the more traditional pro-style offense of BC.  Junior split end Chris Wright and freshman tight end Sam Hendricks also pulled in scores for the Panthers in their week one victory.

Jake Walker
collegepublisher.com

EIU is not much of a running team and that will probably be the fatal flaw for the Panthers tomorrow.  Starting tailback Jake Walker managed only 18 yards on eight carries last week.  Actually, redshirt freshman AJ Woodson had a better game, managing 52 yards, but with only a long of 11 he is not a big play threat.  The Panthers ran an equal number of runs and passes at 35 each last week.  But with the Cats strength in the run defense, at least as exhibited last week, do not expect EIU to be as balanced tomorrow.

The Panther offensive line is small and starts two sophomores and freshman Collin Seibert.  Senior Eric Zink is the smallest of the bunch – the right guard is only 264 and will be charged with blocking the likes of Niko Mafuli at 305 and Will Hampton at 285.  The key for EIU is the opposite guard, Alex Pierce, who weighs in at a solid 307.  As it often happens in these games, the differences in the trenches will be obvious – and NU vs. EIU tomorrow should be no different.

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In the end, EIU’s passing game has to potential to make this game a little uncomfortable early.  But NU should be able to move the ball very effectively on offense and will not get stopped much.  Like most college games, this one will be decided in the trenches, and the Cats have a significant advantage in that area.  Look for an improvement in the secondary over last week and a 37-10 Wildcat Victory.

Go Cats!

Sunday Morning Superback: Colter, NU Linemen Strong in Cats’ 24-17 Win at Boston College

Pat Fitzgerald coached his team to one of the most significant wins of his young coaching career on Saturday – and the Cats did it in the most unlikely of ways.  All of the team’s questions were answered (although some new ones arose), in a sound win that, while coming down to the last play, never had the feeling that NU had lost control of the game.

For Fitz, this has to rank up there with the last three wins against Iowa and the 2009 Wisconsin game as the biggest wins of his career.  His team went on the road to a pretty good BCS opponent and punched them in the mouth.  The team was well-prepared and played with intensity throughout the game.  But for the ill-advised interception thrown by Colter and the touchdown overturned by a holding penalty – this game could have been a Cats blow out.

The key to the game on the offense was the offensive line.  While Colter’s play was nothing short of fantastic, the O-Line gave him plenty of time to throw and provided push for the running game on every play.  The big guys deserve a lot of credit as they paved the way for 227 rushing yards against a front seven that gave up less than 85 per game last season.  The Cats line appeared bigger, stronger, and in much better shape than an Eagle line that did not appear ready for Big Ten football.

Trumpy finds the end zone
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Trumpy lead the way with 15 carries for 85 yards.  And did so fairly quietly.  He had the long 34 yard run, but otherwise simply picked up 3 yards here; 5 yards there.  In the end he was at almost 6 yards per carry, well above his 2010 average.  Adonis Smith seemed to have re-earned his number two position with a solid 11 for 53 effort.  Smith continued his unlikely role as the run-up-the-middle guy and often was able to move piles and stretch for the extra yard.  True Frosh Treyvon Green also saw the field and got one carry.

Colter evades Kuechly
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Colter’s day on the ground was about what we expected, 23 carries for 71 yards.  There were a few more designed quarterback runs than the fans would have liked.  But Colter was much more effective when he pulled the ball down and scrambled.  He rarely looked like he was looking to run – as he would go through his progression or read the pass rush before tucking and burning.

But his passing game was the biggest treat.  17-24, 197 yards, and the one interception is a pretty solid debut. He was able to spread the ball to 8 different receivers – no small task when you only complete 17 balls.  This included 4 to Ebert and 2 to true freshman Christian Jones.  There were some balls thrown high, and a few just behind the receiver – but the clutch throw downfield to Ebert in the fourth quarter showed that he has the ability to make the big throw when necessary.  The interception was just a poorly thrown ball.  Most of all, fans in the stands were impressed with his composure and decision-making.  He never appeared rattled, even after the pick or the sacks.  Colter did get a precautionary x-ray after the game.  He was clearly limping after he scored his second quarter touchdown and was guarded in jogging on and off the field at halftime.  His mobility did not seem to be hampered in the second half; but the coaches also clearly called fewer quarterback runs.  Overall, Cat fans a relieved by the performance – both knowing that there is another solid QB in the queue, and that Persa can continue to rest up for the Big Ten season.

Defensively, yes this was the same unit that got thrashed by Illinois, Wisconsin, and Texas Tech last season.  While BC’s offense was not great last year, they had a competent running game and large big play receivers – all of which NU basically kept at bay.  After giving up the 69-yard run on the first play from scrimmage, NU gave up only 1.2 yards per carry the rest of the day.  And it was the defensive stand after that run which set the tone for the day.  NU made stop after stop – every time it was needed.  The D gave up a lot of yards – but often stalled out the BC drive around mid-field. 

Rettig arises while the Cats celebrate a sack
bcinterruption.com

One of the most noticeable changes in the defense was the amount of pressure that the Cats put on Chase Rettig.  For most of the game, Rettig was under pressure with well-timed blitzes and strong D-Line pressure.  The Cats recorded three sacks for Rettig as well.

The secondary was disappointing, primarily because they gave up some many yards to a quarterback that had accuracy problems all day.  But overall, this unit played decent and made some big plays when they were needed.  This is especially the case for Jordan Mabin, who made the Cats only turnover and broke up a key pass in the fourth quarter.

The only major weakness in the secondary was Jaravin Matthews – although you can hardly blame him for being unable to cover Momah, who stood 7 inches taller than him (and it certainly seemed like more in person).  Late in the fourth, NU moved Mabin over to cover Momah, and that appeared to neutralize him a little. 

The special teams were solid as expected.  Budzien drilled his only field goal attempt – and after seeing the BC kicker struggle, Cat fans were reminded how valuable a good kicker can be.  Mark never really had a good chance to make a big return, although brought his two returnable kicks to around the 25.  Brandon Williams was consistent as ever with turning the field around.

Adonis Smith into the end zone
bostonherald.com

The play-calling on offense was creating and really worked well.  Although there were a few too many designed Colter runs (especially given how proficient everything else was working), everyone knew that was going to be part of the gameplan.  BC really had problems with the hurry-up – especially in the drive at the end of the half.  And that was really where Colter showed his swagger.  At the end of the game on fourth-and-one, EVR would have preferred to see Adonis get the call – or for Colter to take the snap under center.  But overall, McCall called a winner.  Defensively, the Cats attacked throughout most of the game and kept pressure on Chase Rettig.  Would have like to see more pressure during the final drives, however.

Overall, there were far more positives than negatives to take away from this game.  And Cat fans should not underestimate the significance of this win.  BC is one of the most consistent programs in the country – ranking 15^th nationally in total wins over the last 8 years.  Obviously, they had some injuries that changed the tone of the game.  But NU still went on the road and beat a solid opponent.  Nice job Cats!

Go Cats!

Persa Doubtful; Recruiting; Big Ten Preview

thesportsbank.net

News has come out of Evanston that Dan Persa is doubtful for Saturday’s game against Boston College.  Of course this is from collegeinjuryreport.com, which is a webpage primarily used for gambling.  EVR is guessing that the true story is being kept close to the cuff.  It will remain to be seen what sort of effect this has on the Wildcat offense.  Reports are the Kain Colter has played well but he has admitted that he does not quite have his timing down with Jeremy Ebert and Drake Dunsmore.  There are a lot of concerns among Cat fans that Colter is only going to be a running quarterback; but EVR reminds everyone that the same concern was raised with Dan Persa going into 2010 and Mike Kafka going into 2009. 

The bigger question going into BC on Saturday is the health of BC’s defensive secondary.  Safety Spenser Rositano is questionable with concussion symptoms.  Rositano was not expected to be a starter, but has risen to that role due to the recent departures of starting safeties Dominick LeGarnde and Okechukwu Okoroha.  Starting corner and Bednarik Award candidate Donnie Fletcher is doubtful with a back injury.  This is certainly going to put some holes in the BC secondary, which may make things a little easier for Colter.  Colter’s running threat may also put the reins on the BC pass rush, so he should have some time to throw.  More on this tomorrow.

chicagobreakingsports.com

Speaking of running, Mike Trumpy has gone a long way in the last two weeks of regaining the confidence in his coaches.  Fitz said that he has improved his consistency, while Mike admits that he was rusty and not mentally focused when he arrived at camp.  Fitz admits that the team is still looking for a “bell cow” running back, but that Trumpy has gone a long way to getting to that point.  Fitz also suggested that true freshman Treyvon Green could get some snaps on Saturday.  Without a lot of depth at RB, it is almost certain that one of the freshmen will be called upon to play.  Looks like Green is going to get the first shot at it.

Recruiting News

NU had a great week from a recruiting standpoint, claiming three new Wildcats for the 2012 class.  The biggest get was Greg Kuhar, a defensive Tackle from Lakewood St. Edwards in Cleveland – a school which is becoming a nice pipeline for the Cats.  Kuhar backed up his decision with a great performance in his Eagles’ 17-14 win over public school power Cleveland Glenville.  Kuhar recorded a few tackles for loss, including a sack.

NU also picked up a pair of their typical “under-the-radar” guys over the weekend; Linebacker Jaylen Prater, from Wellston, Ohio and DB Terrance Brown from Los Alamitos, CA.  Neither Jaylen nor Terrance has been reviewed by Rivals at this point in time.

There were some great performances by Wildcat 2012 commits over the weekend.  Joseph Jones, who is expected to play DB for the Cats, played a major role in his Plano (IL) team’s 49-3 rout of Lisle.  Jones caught touchdown passes of 85 and 77 yards.  He finished with 220 yards and three touchdowns on just nine touches.  DE Dean Lowry, from Rockford (IL) Boylan was a force on a defense that forced nine fumbles in a 28-0 shutout.  Finally, Chris Fitzpatrick, a linebacker who will long-snap for the Cats, helped a defense that allowed just 46 second-half yards on the way to a 42-7 win for Anderson County (KY).

Big Ten Preview

Here is how EVR sees the Big Ten shaking out this season:

Legends Division:

bleacherreport.net

1 Nebraska: The new kids on the block come in with a load of talent on defense and a highly proficient offense.  Taylor Martinez would be an all-conference contender, if he were not in the same division as Dan Persa and Denard Robinson.  Nebraska may have some growing pains and has tough games at Madison and home against the Buckeyes back-to-back.  But they have the talent to finish on a nice win streak and a 10-2 (6-2) record: BCS at-large Bowl.

2 Michigan State: Look for Michigan State to start slow this year.  The young offensive line and younger defense will need to find themselves in the first half of the season.  Early losses to Notre Dame, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Nebraska will leave the team disheartened.  But a strong finish should put them at 8-4 (5-3) and in the Outback Bowl.

T-3 Northwestern: Regardless of what happens in the BC game, the offense should be able to tread water long enough to get Persa healthy for the Illinois game on October 1^st.  NU gets a scheduling break by avoiding OSU and Wisconsin and getting three straight home games to end the season.  A final game loss to MSU will be disappointing, but it will be, overall, a relatively successful season at 8-4 (4-4) and the Gator Bowl.

T-3 Iowa: For the first time in a while, Iowa’s offense is going to have to win their games for them, as the defense will be strong and have holes to fill.  Running back and quarterback play will dictate how this team finishes.  There are no really tough back to back games on the Hawkeyes schedule – and they also avoid OSU and Wisconsin.  But they are not a solid team and will be upset by one of the bottom three.  They’ll close out the season with a loss to Nebraska on the day after Thanksgiving to finish 8-4 (4-4) and attend the Meineke Car Care Bowl on New Years’ Eve.

5 Michigan: Big Blue has seen a run of seasons where they have started fast and dropped off down the stretch.  2011 will be no different.  The team will upset Notre Dame at home and gain some confidence with a 5-0 start.  But losses at both Evanston and East Lansing, along with a brutal final stretch of Iowa – Illinois – Nebraska and Ohio State – where they will be lucky to pull off one win to finish 7-5 (3-5) and sneak into the Ticketcity Bowl.

6 Minnesota: Minnesota has one of the best unknown quarterbacks on the country, but he will get overshadowed all season by the stars of his own division. Especially since he will be getting beaten up all season.  The defense is just not strong enough to contain the levels of offense on the schedule.  They’ll finish was an upset win against Illinois, to complete a 4-8 (1-7) freshman year for Jerry Kill.

Leaders Division

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1 Wisconsin: The Badgers were the safest bet for 2011 going into the summer; and the addition of Russell Wilson seals the deal.  While he is not going to tear up the league, he is a solid proven quarterback will should fit right into the system in Madison.  The only blemish will be in Columbus, which will keep the Badgers from playing for the BCS Title. They will play Nebraska in the Big Ten Title Game; and given that Wisconsin is the known commodity, EVR will pick the Badgers – to finish them at 11-1 (7-1) and a spot in the Rose Bowl.

2 Ohio State: There was great temptation to drop the Buckeyes to number three here.  This will be a roller coaster ride of a season for the Buckeyes, who will have trouble keeping focus among all the issues. Big wins against Wisconsin and Nebraska will keep the fans happy, but losses to upset-minded Purdue and upstart Illinois will kill the momentum late.  The Bucks will finish up at 10-2 (6-2) and attend the Capital One Bowl.

3 Illinois: For the first time, Illinois seems to be on the upward slope rather than the up and down seasons that the Ron Zook era has experienced.  Nathan Scheelhaase is a future superstar and the defense is back and ready to roll.  The win against Ohio State will be a signature on the season, but late losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota will kill their outside shot at the Title game.  The Ilini finishes 9-3 (5-3) and goes to the Insight Bowl in Tempe.

4 Penn State: PSU will be in a holding pattern this year, as they have not really declined, but there is nothing on their roster to suggest that they will be that much better.  They will lose but not be embarrassed by Alabama.  After beating Northwestern in Evanston, there will be some hope for a really nice finish.  But a final stretch of Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin will destroy their longshot hopes of finishing in Indianapolis.  The Lions finish 6-6 (3-5) and play in the Pizza Bowl.

T-5 Indiana: The Hoosiers will get a coach that has seen a great deal of success on offense, and their defense last year was under-rated.  But they just do not have the talent to compete just yet.  A win against Virginia at home will give the Bloomington fans a glimpse of the future.  But then a harsh dose of the present relegates the Hoosiers to a 6-6 (2-6) record and an outside shot at a non-Big Ten Bowl Game.

T-5 Purdue: Purdue was set up to have a little more success this season until quarterback Rob Henry went down with a knee injury.  This is a program that has been decimated with injuries over the last two years and despite starting 4-1, the season will take its toll.  Look for one late upset, EVR picks OSU, but a disappointing 5-7 (2-6) year.

OK so maybe 44-4 non-conference is a little too optimistic.  But it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the Big Ten could end up with 10 bowl-eligible teams in 2011.

Game Preview tomorrow!!  And then GameDay.

Go Cats!

Practice Begins; News and Notes; RBs; Army and Illinois

Wow, when you list all of today’s topics next to each other, it seems like a lot to cover in just one post – and it is.  But with less than four weeks until Boston College, EVR has a lot of previewing to do.  So you are going to have to bear with me here.

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First off, practice began today for the 2011 Northwestern Wildcats.  EVR will do its best to keep everyone apprised of news from Evanston and Kenosha as it comes.  Although, generally, news in summer practice means injuries – so hopefully there will be no news.  But certainly, if there are any updates to the depth chart, EVR will let you know.  Skip Myslenski does a nice piece featuring Mike Trumpy and Brian Peters and the family atmosphere as the team gets back to work in Evanston.  Otherwise, there was nothing to report from day one. 

The biggest news for the past week is the Big Ten’s announcement that it will expand to a nine-game conference schedule in 2017.  The schedule will allow three teams from each division to have five home conference games in 2017, and the others (including Northwestern) in 2018.  There is no question that this will make the competition in the league better by providing more matchups and more accurately defined division winners.  Considering division winners will be determined by overall conference record and not a team’s divisional mark, this is a positive move.  The big ten also announced that there will not be two protected rivalries, as was speculated by some.  To do so would have significantly increased the lag between playing the other four teams – e.g., NU would only play Ohio State at home every eight years.  Kudos for not going down that road.

This will, as many have noted, make it more difficult for mid-level teams to become bowl eligible.  If the NCAA maintains its 12-game schedule limit, a team will have to win, at minimum, three conference games to be bowl-eligible – currently, a 4-0 non-conference team can be bowl eligible at 2-6 (we’re talking to you Minnesota).  This is obviously a good thing as some awful 6-6 teams have made Bowl games over the years – but it is a fact that it will be more difficult. 

Also, schools like OSU, Michigan, and (this year) Illinois can say goodbye to eight-game home schedules.  With most of the big schools playing at least one away non-conference game every two years – for instance, Michigan’s Notre Dame series – they are faced with the option of moving down to seven games home schedules each year or alternative between eight and six home games.  Let’s hope that the temptation to get an eight game schedule more often does not result in a continual dumbing down of their schedules.

The USA Today Coaches Poll was released last week.  EVR has two issues with this poll.  First, is USA Today’s insistence on referring to it as the Coaches Poll, rather than the grammatically correct Coaches’ Poll.  Second is the utter ridiculousness of ranking teams any time before week four of the regular season.  A great deal of the disparity of college football could be alleviated with this simple fix.

But, for what it is worth, NU received 30 votes and is ranked “31^st”.  Other NU opponents receiving pre-season rankings include: Nebraska (11^th), Michigan State (17), Penn State (25), Iowa (30), and Michigan (34).

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NU made a major move forward in its master plan last week by re-signing Athletic Director Jim Phillips through 2020.  The fact that his contract now matches coach Fitz’s is no coincidence as the school has now placed its officially stamp of approval on this marriage.  Prior ADs at Northwestern firmly established the school’s reputation in non-revenue sports such as Women’s Lacrosse, Swimming, Men’s Soccer, and Women’s Tennis.  With Phillips’ arrival, the school has seen an increased emphasis on bringing football as well as men’s and women’s basketball up to an appropriate level.  Having Philips on board demonstrates that the school wants this era to be more than a blip on the radar, but instead a trend into the future.

There was a little bit of recruiting news last week.  First off, four-star defensive end Faith Ekakitie has placed NU in his top five, according to Rivals.  Ekakitie is a Rivals100 ranked player.  Additionally, offensive tackle and class of 2013 offensive tackle Evan Lisle has named NU as part of his top-six, which also includes BC, Michigan, Notre Dame, OSU and UCLA.

Finally, Sun Times reporter Tina Akouris has been the busiest NU beat writer so far, with nice stories about Jordan Mabin – and the drive of the NU seniors for a memorable season – and Nebraska’s respect for the Persa-Ebert connection.  Great to see that the seniors on defense expressed so much anger for how they played down the stretch last season (now they know how the fans felt).  Also, interesting to see Nebraska’s feelings about the NU offensive threat.

Running Back Preview

Maybe the most maligned group from the 2010 Wildcats, along with the linebackers, was the running backs.  Beginning with Arby Fields’ failed attempt as the starter and finishing with Mike Trumpy’s wrist injury in the Illinois game, there was generally no good news from the running backs.  And they will be the focus of attention again in 2011 as the team will need more production from the RBs in order to take the next step offensively.

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Mike Trumpy has emerged as the starter and deservedly so.  Even though he led the team with a meager 530 yards, he did so with only 116 carries.  With a normal healthy workload of 20 carries per game, his yards per carry should put him well over 1,000 yards.  Mike shows a great ability to mix power with modest speed.  He won the job from Arby Fields primarily because of his willingness to hit the hole rather than trying to break outside.  But he also broke an 80 yard run against a pretty solid Illinois defense.  Trumpy is also one of four returning players with more than 20 receptions, so he is very versatile.  If Mike plays 12 full games at the rate he played in 2010, he should have a breakout year.  But he will need help.

The running back position is a stressful position in the spread offense.  Not only does he touch the ball more than the rest of the team, but the pace of the offense takes its toll on the guy who is forced to run the ball, run a route, or block on every play.  Thus the importance of Adonis Smith.  Adonis lost his red-shirt midway through 2010, and immediately demonstrated his talent.  Adonis actually had a higher yards per carry than Trumpy with 4.8.  His tall skinny frame is deceptive as he is much stronger than he appears, yet is a touch slower than we would expect.  Big Ten defenders who are lazy and try to tackle him high will not be rewarded.  Look for Adonis to play a major role as a compliment to Trumpy.

Finally, Cat fans will again see a lot of work from Senior Jacob Schmidt.  Jacob missed some time last year due to an ankle injury.  We should see Jacob quite a bit on long yardage situations as his biggest asset is as a blocker and a receiver in the flat.

The transfer of Arby Fields will be felt the most in the lack of depth at this position.  Trumpy, Smith, and Schmidt are the only Wildcats on the roster with a carry in college.  Given the amount that the Cats plan to use all three, this poses a problem in the event of injury.  Look to see redshirters Tyris Jones and Tim Hanrahan if the Cats get into mop-up time (either giving or receiving) in order to protect the red-shirts of Jordan Perkins and Treyvon Green.  But if someone gets injured, one of the two freshmen will probably need to step up.

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Army – September 17, 2011 – West Point, NY.  In the 2012 edition of Webster’s dictionary, next to “Trap Game”, is the box score from this game.  Service Academy – check; road game – check; quirky offense – check; before a bye week leading up to a rivalry/revenge game – check and check.  By all rights, NU should manhandle this team.  The offensive line averages a meager 270 and the depth chart currently has one (that’s “1”) defensive lineman.  But everyone knows that this game will be far more difficult on the field.

The Black Knights run their own version of the triple option.  This will be a mighty test for a linebacker corps that was consistently out of position last season.  The NU LBs will need to have their heads on straight for Army because RBs Malcolm Brown and Raymond Maples will certainly be ready.   Army QB Trent Steelman is a true double threat with 721 rushing yards in 2010.  While they do not pass much, Steelman threw just over 11 passes per game last season, his completion percentage was over 50% and he threw seven TDs to only 3 picks.  The Army offense is efficient and chock full of precision.  The Cats will need to be on their game.

The Navy defense is far less impressive and is not at all deep.  NU should be able to get its running game going early.  Army lost both of its starting DEs to injury, which will really hurt their pass rushing ability as well.  The Army defense held only three teams to under 20 points in 2010 (North Texas, VMI, and SMU).

Army is coming off a nice bowl win against SMU.  But their six-win season was not against the toughest schedule as their best win was probably at Tulane.  Army will warm up for the Cats with games against Northern Illinois and San Diego State – two teams coming off great season, but returning with new coaches.  NU will be the most put together team that Army will face.

Illinois – October 1, 2011 – Champaign, IL.  NU gets two weeks to prepare to make up for the embarrassing loss to the Illini at Wrigley Field.  Illinois will play its fifth home game to start the season against the Cats, a streak which will include a very tough visitor in Arizona State.  If either NU or Illinois comes into this game with a loss, it will be critical to win this conference opener.

thesportsbank.net

The Illinois offense will once again be led by Nathan Scheelhaase, who impressed everyone last year and will only continue to improve.  Jason Ford will step into some big shoes at running back, although the senior already has over 1,000 yards on fewer than 200 carries over the last two seasons.  The Offensive line is stocked with two seniors and three juniors and averages a stout 308 across the board.

The defense will return some good talent from a squad that held five teams to under 14 points – of course, the defense also gave up 67 points to Michigan and 38 to lowly Minnesota.  There will be two holes in the defense that sophomores Akeem Spence and Jonathan Brown will attempt to fill.  Their ability to mesh with the defense will be key for the Illini, especially in defending the run.  The secondary should be the strength of this unit, with experience at all four spots.

Illinois has managed to disappoint throughout most of the Ron Zook era, but they started to turn the corner in 2010.  This will be a make-or-break year for a program searching for an identity.  This will probably be NU’s second toughest road game (sorry Iowa), and a huge opportunity to steal a win from a team that may have equal talent.

Go Cats!

Wrigley Game: The Aftermath

There is a lot to get to today as I squeeze in three days of work and this blog between a trip to Chicago and traveling for the holiday – so I will get right to it.

First off, I think I speak for the majority of NU fans (and Illini fans, obviously) when I say that I had an absolute blast on Saturday.  Regardless of the fingerpointing, the national publicity, the brutal run defense, etc., from a fan standpoint, this was a complete success.  Whether this truly was once in a lifetime, or whether this becomes the stepping stone for future events, it is certainly memorable for all who attended.

I sat behind a dad who had four young boys with him.  They were all old enough to understand football and will certainly always remember this moment.  They could go to dozens of Cubs games during their childhood.  They will always remember the NU-Wrigley Game.

The game, itself, was memorable for a number of reasons.  The first quarter was absolutely crazy.  I remarked at the end of it that it reminded me of the fourth quarter of the Outback Bowl.  Something was always happening.  Five touchdowns, four turnovers, a missed field goal, and a touchdown in the forbidden end zone.  While the pace of the game certainly settled down after that, the stadium was electric for the entire first hour.

The obvious criticism of the Cats was the run defense.  To say that this was a poor effort was an understatement – the Cats missed 31 tackles.  I was sitting in the “good” end zone and watched the majority of the game throguh binoculars.  It seemed like every play for Illinois a big hole opened up and suddenly Lushoure came marching through.

So what happened?  A unit by unit look explains a lot.  The Defensive Line accounted for six of the team’s seven tackles for loss.  So it is hard to say that they were not being aggressive and getting off blocks – in fact, a large amount of the missed tackles were DL tackles in the backfield.  But perhaps they were being too aggressive and allowing the holes to be opened.  Basically each play then became a crapshoot, where the Illini back was either going to get hit in the backfield or open up a big gain, because…

The Linebackers were nowhere to be found.  NU’s linebackers only recorded one tackle for loss and were consistantly out of position the entire game.  The Illini OC said that they noticed that the NU linebackers were overpersuing at the snap, which was opening up cutback lanes.  And that’s what they did all day: handoff to Lushoure, two steps left, cut back right, run through the gaping hole.  On the option runs, NU often only had one man covering two.  And when two backers were covering the play, they did not contain the pitch man. 

Of all the ways that NU could have lost this game, the lack of a run defense was the last thing that I would have ever considered to be the reason.  And the pass defense, while not really needed, played more than effectively.  Illinios ran 14 pass plays, completing sic, with two interceptions, three passes broken up, and three QB hurries.  Clearly the Illinois spreak offense had an effect on this as NU consistantly had to play three corners and two safeties, leaving only six big men to cover the run.  Maybe putting a safety on a receiver and adding a LB would have helped – but we will never know.

In the end, on the defensive side, Illinois ran 84 plays to NU’s 48 and had the ball for almost 42 minutes.  As one fan said in the concourse after the game, “Dan Persa don’t play defense.”  Even Danny boy could not have helped the Cats out of this one.

The Offensive, under the circumstances, was not horrible.  And the running game was actually quite effective.  Mike Trumpy had the longest NU run since 1983.  But he also averaged more than four yards per carry on his other 12 runs.  Adonis Smith avergaged 6.7 yards.  After you take out the three sacks, Watkins scrambled four times for 31 yards.  And Kain Colter ran three times, two for first downs.  While 48 plays is hardly enough time to develop an offense, NU only ran 25 true running plays (i.e., not counting sacks).  But, taking out the long Trumpy run, the Cats averaged 4.95 yards per carry on the other 24 runs.  But the Cats only ran the ball three plays in a row once in the entire game – on the second drive of the game.  Everyone expected that NU would need to run the ball well in order to stay in the game.  The problem was that they did run the ball well, but never got a chance to stay in control.

The passing game was about what we could have expected out of the situation.  Once Evan Watkins go the nerves out of his system he played pretty well, demonstrating a nice arm at times.  The first five pass plays were knocked-down pass, sack/fumble, 13 yard game, incompletion, interception.  After that, Watkins was 9 for 16 for 119 yards, one TD, no picks.  This would be good first half statistics.  Unfortunately, the Cats did not run enough plays to see this play out.  Watkins demonstrated that the Cats have something a little different to look forward to in 2012.  My early prediction is that Evan develops quite well in December and comes out poised and ready to lead the team in its bowl game.

A few notes on the special teams.  We finally got a chance to see Venric Mark really run – and even though you cannot like the fumble on the play, he broke tackles and made people miss – and almost scored in the forbidden zone.  Demos looked pretty solid, but could not get a good kickoff into the steady east-west wind. 

The gametime atmosphere was hard to describe.  Gameday got NU students out of bed and into Wrigleyville by 5:00 a.m.  Sheffield transformed into a portable Wildcat Alley.  The bars and restaurants were packed and house parties popped up all over the neighborhood.  It was, as Jim Phillips described his vision, a Bowl game in Chicago.

So what is the effect?  NU stated that the goal of this game is to increase ticket sales in Evanston.  This plan has been criticized because most outsiders assume that this means that NU hopes to convert fans.  I believe that this is not the case.  The point is to motivate existing fans.

Case in point, the most highly attended non-conference game since 1995 was the 1998 game against Duke, where NU lost 44-10.  The game drew more than 41,000.  This fact alone disproves a number of the myths about Northwestern attendance.  It was a game in September on, by all accounts and my memory, a nice day; it was a non-conference game; it was against a bad opponent; it was an opponent that was not close enough to bring a large contingent of its own, and it was a bad NU team.  My point being is that there are NU fans out there.  The Athletic Department does not need to create new fans, it needs to motivate the existing fan base.

So did this work?  Time will tell, and I can only speak from my own observations.  I saw college friends who live in the Chicago area who I do not normally see at games.  But more importantly, in addition to my trip from Canton, Ohio, I had friends in from New York City, Traverse City, MI, Nashville, TN, Austin, TX, St. Paul, MN, and Las Vegas.  So to the extent that was the goal – I would say that it was a success.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone, enjoy the turkey and the football and check back on Friday for what will probably be a depressing preview of the Wisconsin game.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
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http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Game Preview: Northwestern (6-2) (2-2) at Penn State (5-3) (2-2)

Saturday, October 30, 2010 2:30 CST (ABC/ESPN2)

Photo credit: Pennstategameday.com

Beaver Stadium, State College, PA

Northwestern is bowl eligible after a win in Bloomington that was not as close as the final 20-17 score indicated.  The defense absolutely stymied an offense that was averaging more than 31 points per game.  Penn State is coming off a primetime win against a Michigan team that is in a downward spiral.  NU is 3-10 all time against Penn State, including only one win in State College, in 2004.

There are some major storylines going into this game.  Obviously, Joe Paterno is coaching to win his 400^th game as a head coach, joining only two others in this elite club.  Losing to NU would mean that PSU only has one legitimate opportunity to reach that goal in this season (against Indiana) as they still play OSU and MSU.

Additionally, NU quarterback Dan Persa has recovered well from a minor concussion sustained in the fourth quarter against Indiana.  He was cleared by doctors to play and has been practicing at full strength since Wednesday.  Whether he will be hesitant with the run, or if he will continue to give 100% will be key.  Dan is also playing near his hometown of Bethlehem, PA – his mother went to Penn State, a school who did not recruit him.  Joe Paterno said this week that he wishes he would have recruited Persa more aggressively.

Finally, Penn State is going into the game with a QB controversy on its hands.  Freshman Robert Bolden has sat out with a concussion of his own since mid-way through their game against Minnesota two weeks ago.  Junior Matt McGloin started last week against Michigan and led them to victory.  More on the PSU quarterback situation below.

Injury Report: Dan Persa (concussion) is expected to play, but technically is listed as probable.  Jacob Schmidt (ankle) is doubtful, but had already been losing carries to Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith.  Scott Concannon, who basically has fallen to the 5^th RB, is out with a knee injury.  Another week of good news for the Cats.

Penn State has had quite a few injuries to deal with.  Kevin Haplea (TE) is a freshman who is starting his first game in place of Andrew Szczerba (back) and Garry Gilliam (knee), who are both out for the year.  Last year’s starting guard Lou Eliades is also out with a knee injury.  Safety Nick Sukay tore a pectoral muscle and is also out for the year.  Robert Bolden (QB) is probable as he continues to recover from his concussion.  Finally, Jack Crawford (DE) has been upgraded to probable for the NU game with a foot injury.  There are also a handful of non-starters who will miss Saturday’s game.  Thanks to College Injury Report.com for the injury report.

Weather Report: There is a 50% chance of rain, but not cold enough to turn into snow.  Wind should not be much of an issue, at least not nearly as much as the last two weeks.  If the rain holds off, the mid-40’s kickoff temp should make for a chilly but comfortable game. Keep up to date with Weather.com  

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Dan Persa: Persa was a little off against Indiana, and for the first time all season is not the nation’s leader in completion percentage.  Penn State’s secondary is strong and has only given up more than 230 yards one time all season – to Minnesota, who also had 13 more attempts than anyone else.  At corner PSU starts D’Anton Lynn, who has recorded two of PSU’s seven interceptions.  At the other corner, there is not as much experience, and it gets weaker as you go down the depth chart.  Expect NU to work the short passing game to beat the younger corners, because PSU has one of the best strong safeties in the conference with Drew Astorino.  The other safety is Andrew Dailey, who is a senior, but only has two career starts in place of the injured Nick Sukay.  PSU has also had trouble with running quarterbacks, so if they bring someone in to spy on Persa, it should open up some alleys for passing the ball.  Dan has made some of the better scrambles of the year over the last two weeks, and PSU will have to contain that first and worry about the passing game second.

Ollie Ogbu (DT): This senior co-captain is one of the most experienced players on PSU’s team.  He has five career sacks, but none this year; although he has recorded 5 ½ tackles for loss.  He is a big run-stopper that NU’s newly rejuvenated offensive line will need to be able to move if the running game is to succeed.  Ogbu is the best player on this line, so if the Cats can contain him, they should be able to continue their recent success running the ball.  But if Ogbu can shed his blocks, he will be a nightmare for Trumpy and Smith all day.

Mike Trumpy: Given the style of NU’s offense and the skill of the Cats’ defense, you have to expect about 185 yards passing and 35-50 yards (net) rushing from Dan Persa.  If the Cats are passing more than that, they are losing anyway.  This means that the running game, and in particular, Mike Trumpy, will be counted on the grind out the yards to put the Cats in position to win the game.  Linebacker U is not as solid in that position as it has been in the past and Andrew Dailey is quite inexperienced as a free safety.  So if Trumpy can get past the big uglies, he may be able to break some longer runs – much like he did last week against IU.  Trumpy (or Adonis, I suppose) will need 20-24 carries and 150 yards for the Cats to win.  He finally has the experience and confidence to accomplish this.

In the trenches: Which brings us to the most important matchup of this game.  Penn State has older players on their D-Line (two seniors and two junior starters), but NU has more experience (all five returning starters, as compared to two of four).  PSU has recorded nine sacks all year, but only two against Big Ten competition.  This has been the Achilles heel of the NU offense all year, but Persa has pulled some magical plays out in dire situations in the last two weeks.  PSU has also given up some large rushing numbers to Illinois, Michigan and Alabama – but been pretty stout against Minnesota and Iowa.  In other words, for as important as this matchup will be – it is equally as mysterious.

Overall impression: NU will need to be very methodical on offense.  I foresee a lot of long drives and third-down conversions.  This will mean that some drives will stall around midfield.  But as long as they can get the field position flipped in their favor a few times, NU should be able to squeak in some scores.  If NU commits more than 5 holding/false start penalties, they will lose.

When Penn State has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Evan Royster (RB): Royster became PSU’s all time leading rusher last week in a 150-yard effort.  But he has not had the season that everyone expected, as it was anticipated that he would reach that mark somewhere around week 4.  He has only cleared 60 yards twice and in two games was not even the team’s leading rusher.  But his two big games were monster games with 187 against Temple to go with the Michigan game.  If NU can play as well against the run as it has – thus forcing PSU to throw the ball more, NU will be able to generate some stops and maybe even some turnovers.

Bryce McNaul: McNaul continues to emerge as the best NU defender, recording another 11 tackles against Indiana.  He is third on the team in tackles, despite missing the first two games and seeing limited action until the Big Ten season.  There is no question that his recent success is directly linked to the Cats recent play against the run.  McNaul’s inspired play will be a major factor in tomorrow’s game.

PSU’s QB: Penn State will not win tomorrow’s game based on its quarterback decision.  But it may be the reason that they lose the game.  Bolden’s performances have been nothing to write home about, and McGloin numbers last week must be tempered by the fact that he was playing against a high school defense.  PSU does a nice job spreading the ball around to its receivers, which is a nice asset.  But whoever is named the starter must flush out the fear that he will be benched and play with confidence in order to succeed.

In the trenches: PSU starts five seniors across the defensive line, but it is one of the smaller lines in the Big Ten, averaging just under 301 lbs.  Kevin Watt is starting to play very well at end, and NU saw a lot of success pressuring the QB by playing Quentin Davie at end in passing situations.  NU’s rotation of lineman will keep PSU on their toes and at times will keep the quarterback with happy feet.  Penn State has given up only seven sacks, but all of them have been in the last five games.  Both of these units are strong but not dominating.

Overall Impression: Both of these teams have seen some success in this aspect of the game, but it is far from perfection.  PSU has scored only two combined touchdowns against Alabama, Temple, Iowa and Illinois.  NU performed well against a high-scoring offense last week, it should be able to stop a low-scoring unit this week.

Intangibles: Joe Paterno is playing for his 400^th win at home.  Nothing else needs to be said.  The weather should not be an issue.

Bottom Line: Both of these teams have similar credentials to last year, with the exception of the quarterback.  NU was forced to play an unprepared Dan Persa for two and a half quarters and did not score during that time.  This year, PSU has the weakness at quarterback.  I see the same sort of game playing out with the opposite result.  The game remains close and low scoring through three quarters; Jo Pa replaces the quarterback in an effort to jump start the offense; and this turns out to be an ill-fated decision.  The Cats score their first touchdown of the game late and pull out the win.

Cats win 16-13.

Go Cats! 

johnknublog@gmail.com
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