Attempting to Make Sense of the Illinois Loss

EVR hates reviewing a loss, especially a loss like this.  Part of why EVR began this blog was to have the venue to evaluate matchups and statistics and take a pragmatic look at Northwestern football.  The idea is to remove the emotion from the analysis.  But after a game like Saturday, it is difficult not to sit there and cry: “Why?  Why?!?”

Fitz: perplexed
sbnation.com

Stop if you have heard this story before.  NU loses a close game in upset fashion to a team that is vastly overmatched – primarily because of the failures of the offense.  NU has two weeks to prepare for the next game, a game against an upstart Big Ten team who is off to its best start in decades.  After a tightly fought beginning, NU’s offense comes alive – punching their opponent in the mouth and taking a three score lead.  But then the defense slowly falls apart and the loss comes in excruciating fashion.  Sound like the 2010 Michigan State game?  Or last Saturday against Illinois?

The largest frustration for Cat fans coming out of this game is that it appears that the Cats have not found an identity yet.  84% of the team’s passes have been thrown by the backup quarterback.  A team with two mobile quarterbacks is giving up more than two sacks a game.  The supposed weakness of the team – the running game – is the most consistent element.  55% of the defense’s rushing yards were given up in one game.  And the secondary was billed as the best in 15 years… well….  And what is up with the rugby style punts?

Well, EVR has taken a look at the numbers and, like it or not, it looks like the Illinois game is the best measure of what Cat fans can expect to see out of this team for the rest of the season.  And that is appropriate.  After all, Boston College has turned out to be a failure; EIU is not something to judge against; and Army brought the quirky defense and saw the offense sputter.  The Illinois results are the best way to evaluate this team and the statistics support this.

This post will take a look at the Cats in six areas of the game.  It will show why the Illinois game is the best way to demonstrate what this team is capable of.  Like it or not, what this will predict is a lot of high scoring, heart-stopping games ahead. 

True Frosh Treyvon Green
ggpht.com

Rushing Offense:  One of the biggest surprises of the year has been the effectiveness of the NU rushing attack.  NU is averaging more than 200 yards per game –170 against the three FBS opponents.  The Cats gained 171 against Illinois – exactly at the average.  Also, Persa and Colter were expected to get their rushing yards – and it really is not fair to include the sack yardage in these totals.  The running backs are averaging 4.2 yards per carry for the year – they were at 4.0 against the Illini.  These are not world beating numbers, but they are more than adequate especially against the Boston College and Illinois run defenses. Expect more of the same for the rest of the season, even without Mike Trumpy.

Passing Offense:  If there is one word to describe the NU passing game in 2011, it is efficient.  67% completions, seven touchdowns, one interception (in the first half of the first game).  The average is 167 per game; the Cats gained 160 against Illinois.  Like it or not, the Cats offense is committed to running the ball, which will continue to allow Persa to be a surgeon with his arm when needed.  The key will be keeping the wide receivers engaged because they will need to be focused when they are called upon. 

Persa, sacked again
writingillini.com

Pass Protection:  NU was worst in the Big Ten in 2010 giving up more than three sacks per game.  Thus far in 2011 it has been only a little better.  Ten sacks in four games, including seven in the last two, is not good – especially given the mobility of Persa and Colter.  The Illinois defense sacked Persa a total of four times and after three of those, the Cats did not survive that set of downs – leading directly to three of the six NU punts.  In fact, the 10 opponents’ sacks have directly led to eight punts and a missed field goal this year.  The Illinois defense showed the Big Ten that the efficient passing game can be neutralized by an effective pass rush and the results demonstrated that it is worth the risk of Persa breaking away for a quick run.  Just like Saturday, this will continue to be the weakness of the offense.

Rushing Defense:  In 2010, the Cats game up 185 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.  In 2011, through four games, NU has allowed 175 per game, but only 4.1 yards per carry.  By removing the Army game, these numbers continue to get better – 106 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry.  And even further, by removing a 69 yard run on the first play of the season and a 76 yard run with 1:27 left in the game against EIU and the defense allows 43 yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry.  Illinois gained only 82 yards on the ground, 48 of which were on three plays.  The Cats held the Illini to 2.2 yards per carry, their best output of the season.  Granted NU was focusing on the run to make up for the Wrigley debacle; but the run defense is the most improved unit on the team, and fans should expect to see more of this, even against the better running attacks in the Big Ten.

A.J. Jenkins just scored again

Passing Defense:  Oh Boy… After the BC game, EVR expressed some concern over the passing defense after allowing 351 yards to Chase Rettig; Chase Rettig!  Against EIU, there was more worry after the Panthers managed to squeeze in a bomb of a touchdown pass through a hole that was 25 yards wide.  And, well, everyone saw what happened against Illinois.  Without the Army game, the Cats are giving up a ridiculous 9.4 yards per attempt (12.2 against Illinois) and 16.1 yards per completion (18.6 vs. Illinois.  Just by comparison, NU’s numbers are 7.8 and 11.5 respectively.  The biggest problems seems to arise when the quarterback takes the ball from under center and especially when they use play action – which was especially prevalent in the Illinois game.  This should not be much of a problem against spread teams, but may be an issue against pro-style offenses such as Iowa, MSU, and Nebraska.  It is unlikely that every game will be quite as bad as the Illinois game, but this will be an ongoing problem.

One of the four Wildcat sacks
daylife.com

Pass Rush:  The Wildcat pass rush has vastly improved in 2011 as well.  After only recording 17 sacks in 2010, NU has already made 10 in four games so far.  Part of this has been the health of the offensive line, but a large part has been the aggressiveness of the defensive play-calling.  Oddly enough, all of the sacks against Illinois were earlier in the game, while sacks against the other three opponents all occurred later in the contest.  Regardless of when the sacks occur, the team has shown that they have the talent to put pressure on the passer – which was exhibited by the four sacks of Nathan Scheelhaase.  But they will need to be able to do this during the entire game as the season goes on.

Now that the Cats are four games into the season, the raw data begins to play itself out and Cat fans can start to see where this team is headed.  If the Illini are indeed one of the better teams in the Big Ten, this comparison is a promising one.  And if the Cats continue to play to their statistical averages, they should be able to pull out some nice victories.  But on the other hand, the games will not be without their share of drama and fireworks.  EVR predicts excitement for the rest of the season, beginning with a Michigan team that the Cats really should match up well against. 

In the end, blowing an 18-point lead is hard to swallow.  There were some good things to take from the Illinois game. But the pass protection and the pass defense is going to need to improve vastly if the Cats want to make a push for a decent bowl game.

Go Cats!

Revisiting Army; the Anatomy of an Upset

First off, EVR apologizes for going AWOL this week.  The post-Army hangover was too great on Sunday morning and EVR’s “real job” has been getting in the way.  Even EVR needs a bye week.

NU lost to Army.  There is not much more to say about it.  Those who watched know how it happened; those who did not watch – well those fans are probably better off.  There are three things that can be said about losing to Army.  The first is that Northwestern should not lose to Army.  Period.  End of discussion.

But it is also very little to get upset about losing to Army or any service academy.  The service academies represent everything that is good and pure about college football.  And if the Cats are going to lose to any team, Army is one of the few that are tolerable. 

Finally, the one thing that gives Cat fans solace about losing to Army is the very thing that frustrates them the most.  And that is this: this was an upset; NU is better than Army; NU will make a bowl; NU will beat someone that it should not to make up for it.  Why do Cat fans feel that way?  Well, that is the frustrating part… because NU has seen this all too often…

’06 New Hampshire; ’07 Duke; ’08 Indiana; ’09 Syracuse; ’10 Purdue; ’11 Army.  Every year of the Fitz tenure, NU has suffered a devastating upset.  Cat fans have grown to expect it; and those with negative inclinations even picked Army as the trap game of the 2011 season.  In attempting to process the Army loss, EVR has done some research.  And while this will not necessarily demonstrate why NU has a tendency to lose these games; the goal is to show how it happens.

The easy way to describe this trend is that NU comes into these upset games overconfident.  And there is some merit to this.  NU is an incredible 18-1 going into the 6 Fitz upsets.  There is some indication of looking ahead as well.  NU’s opponents after the upsets included Ohio State (’07), a red hot Minnesota (’08), a decent Minnesota (’09), an undefeated Michigan State (’10), and a likely undefeated Illinois this year.

But there is far more similarity to those losses than meets the eye.  Look at the Duke, Indiana, Purdue and Army losses.  The New Hampshire game is Fitz’s second career game and had a freshman at quarterback – not to mention that New Hampshire was probably actually better than NU that year.  The Syracuse game showed us one of the best passing performances in NU history – but for the brutal Kafka interception that set up the game winning field goal.  NU also had a secondary that was decimated by injuries, so it is a bit of an outlier.

Here is a look at the four remaining upset games, as compared the NU’s season stats.  Note that the season stats are the game-by-game average with the upset game removed:

		NU Pts.	NU Pts.		Opp Pts.	Opp. Pts.		NU off yds.	NU off yds.		Opp. Off yds.	Opp. Off yds
Year	Game	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff
2007	Duke	14	25	(11)	20	28	(8)	506	386	120	309	370	(61)
2008	Indiana	19	25	(6)	21	20	1	316	362	(46)	319	342	(23)
2010	Purdue	17	27	(10)	20	30	(10)	389	391	(2)	279	438	(159)
2011	Army	14	33	(19)	21	19	2	309	430	(121)	387	398	(11)

This explains a great deal.  NU consistently scored considerably below its season average in its upset losses.  Meanwhile its offensive yardage output was not too far off.  Thus suggests that the team is moving the ball at its normal rate, but not converting the scores.  It is clear that offensive efficiency is a clear indicator that an upset is in the cards.

Meanwhile, in the four subject games, the defense plays to its average, if not significantly better than normal.  In the Purdue game last year, the defense played one of its best statistical games of the season, but it was not enough.

Another common theme is the setting of the game.  Each of these losses – and you can throw back in the Syracuse game for this one – was either on the road or at night.  In other words, it was a setting that is out of the Wildcat comfort zone.

So how does this happen?  Stop if you have heard this one before.  NU comes out and the offense sputters.  Underdog gets an early score.  Underdog’s defense makes a few nice stops and gains some confidence.  Halftime is uncomfortably close.  As the game wears on NU starts to doubt itself on offense, while its defense begins to tire.  While the defense is playing well, it can no longer withstand the disadvantage in the time of possession.  Underdog gets a late score.  NU has a chance to win or tie at the end, but the highly confident and rested underdog defense makes the final stand.

Granted, not every upset happens this way.  But it certainly is closer to the rule than the exception.  Just look at the low scores in NU upsets over the years (defined as unranked NU teams over ranked opponents):

·         2010: NU 21 Iowa 17

·         2009: NU 17 Iowa 10

·         2008: NU 24 Minnesota 17

·         2004: NU 13 Purdue 10

·         2003: NU 16 Wisconsin 7

·         1997: NU 19 Michigan State 17

·         1995: NU 17 Notre Dame 15

·         1993: NU 22 Boston College 21

·         1991: NU 17 Illinois 11

While NU has certainly had some higher scoring upsets, the low-scoring affair is generally the more likely recipe.  As can be seen by the stats above, the underdog has a much better chance when their defense is playing well.  On the other hand, generally, when the teams are locked in a shootout, the favored team will prevail.  College football is a game of emotion and defense is the more emotional side of the ball.  If your defense makes some stops early, the offense will eventually score a few points and keep you in the game.  That is when upsets happen.

Why make this analysis?  Well look at how it applied to the Army game.

While the defense gave up 381 yards rushing, it only gave up 6 yards passing.  Army was the best offense that NU has seen in their three games and they held them to their lowest output of the year.  The 387 was still 50 yards less than the average given up by the Cats in 2010; and the 381 rushing by Army was lower than its average in its first two games.  So while it is easy to blame the defense, the statistics suggest otherwise.

That said, the NU defense failed to make big stops when they needed to and the most telling stat of the game was Army’s 3-3 on fourth down.  Army scored on its first drive of the game – but NU made some adjustments and stopped them the rest of the half.  Army made halftime adjustments, and scored on their first drive of the second half.  The NU defense then made four consecutive stops including three drives which totaled nine plays.  But in the end, the NU defense was tired and worn down from the option attack.  After a 14-play drive ended in a missed field goal, NU scored on a quick three-play drive.  The Wildcat defense was gassed and gave up the winning score.

But it was the offense that was the scapegoat in this game.  NU had four three-and-outs including three drives which resulted in negative yardage.  They had three consecutive three-and-outs in the second half.  Prior to the quick touchdown drive late in the game, NU had zero yards of total offense in the second half.  NU’s failure to convert on the first drive of the game and then again on the field goal attempt at the half was the beginning of the end.  These are the things that give an underdog defense its confidence.

One final note: Saturday marked the first time that Fitz removed a QB for strictly performance-based reasons.  Certainly he has sat a starter late during a blowout – and the two-QB system during the end of 2010 was by design.  But for the first time in six years, Fitz made the election to go with someone else while the game was still in doubt.  How this plays in the mind of Kain Colter moving forward will be interesting to watch in the next few years.  With all due respect to Kain, here’s hoping that we do not see him again this season – with the return of Dan Persa on the horizon.

So with no NU game this weekend, let’s look at the Big Ten Power Rankings.

Legends Division

1 Nebraska (+1): Nebraska gets the top spot back by default.  While the game ended in a convincing win, Nebraska again looked mediocre in the first half.  They may have some early issues again when they go to Laramie to face an undefeated Wyoming team.  While Nebraska will likely win, their confidence will continue to be shaken, which is not a good preparation for the Wisconsin showdown.

2 Michigan State (-1): Michigan State managed to force a few turnovers in South Bend and still was destroyed by the Irish.  The young Spartan defense was exposed by the Notre Dame skill players.  While ND sports a better offensive cast than most of the Big Ten; MSU still has some defensive concerns going into conference play.

T-3 Northwestern: If history repeats itself, the Cats will recover from their upset loss and prove that it was just that, an upset.  Dan Persa should return and the Cats should still be an outside contender for the Legends crown.  On the other hand, they had an off week after the Purdue loss last year and still lost to MSU; so the extra week before Illinois may be a non sequitur.

T-3 Michigan (+1): Michigan moves up as one of the four undefeated teams in the conference; although they probably do not deserve the promotion.  Blue’s next test is against NU, so EVR will let them decide it on the field.  They do have a tough test against Brady Hoke’s former team, San Diego State, on Saturday.

5 Iowa: Iowa needed a miracle to avoid losing their season against Pitt.  And this was clearly a game where Pitt simply lost their focus.  Iowa needs a lot of work to get back to where they expect to finish and until then will be secured in the 5 spot.

6 Minnesota: EVR was happy to see the Gophers pick up their first win after two heartbreaking losses.  Minnesota is probably better than Indiana and Purdue, but without playing IU, that still only results in a 3-9 season.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: Wisconsin is sleepwalking through their non-conference schedule.  They should and will be favored against Nebraska on October 1.  With chinks in the armor on the Legends side, November 19 at Illinois could be the Big Ten game of the year.

2 Illinois: Very impressive.  Illinois passed their first true test with flying colors; issuing a minor upset against a ranked Arizona State 17-14 (see analysis above).  Ron Zook has these guys playing very well.  They are the second best team in the division, they avoid Nebraska and Michigan State, and they get Wisconsin and Ohio State at home.  Their toughest road game is Penn State.  The Illini could win 10 games easily.

3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes played one of their most pathetic games of the last ten years Saturday night.  Even the 2008 loss to USC was a loss to a clearly better team.  Miami is a good-but-not-great team made to look like world-beaters by a Buckeye team on the brink.  Colorado has looked competent; but it is a must win as the Buckeyes follow the Buffs with Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin – in that order.  Brutal.

4 Penn State: For the second year in a row, Penn State almost lost to Temple.  But they are still better than Purdue and IU.  PSU will get well with a handful of winnable games which they must sweep if they want to be assured of a season above .500.

T-5 Purdue: Purdue and IU get back their T-5 position after a pair of solid wins over inferior opponents.  Purdue was very efficient on offense and looked like a pretty good team -- even against an inferior opponent.  They get two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame, when reality will set back in. 

T-5 Indiana: The Hoosiers face North Texas in week four – which is their last legitimate chance to win a game until the Purdue game at the end of the season.  Kevin Wilson will do some nice things once Gunner Kiel gets on campus.  But he will need to wait until next year to start that project.

Go Cats!

Game Preview: Northwestern (2-0) at Army (0-2)

Saturday September 17, 2011, 2:30 CST (CBS Sports Network)

ballparks.com

Michie Stadium, West Point, N.Y.

Saturday’s game matches two of the top rushing offenses in the country, but that comes for two different reasons.  NU’s offensive line had been manhandling the front seven of its employees, allowing big pushes on runs – even when holes to not form. Army on the other hand runs the triple option, an offense designed to deceive rather than overpower.  Both teams’ leading rusher is their quarterback – Kain Colter for Northwestern and Trent Steelman for Army.  Meanwhile, questions remain about whether Dan Persa will play and how much.  The game is also a sellout (38,000), which is attributed primarily to the large amount of NU fans attending the game.

regjans.com

This is the fifth meeting between the two programs.  The last time Army faced a Big Ten opponent was the only prior visit to West Point, which resulted in an Army win.  NU had won the three prior matchups, all in Evanston.  Interestingly, Army is 2-0 in its two bowl appearances against Big Ten opponents.  Army will be wearing patches honoring the 82 Airborne Division on Saturday.  Wearing a uniform patch such as this is a tradition for the Army football team.  Army is 1-1 all-time wearing the 82 Airborne patch, with both prior games coming against Duke.

Injury Report

For Northwestern, defenders Collin Ellis (broken finger) and Jack DiNardo (leg) remain out.  Meanwhile, Adonis Smith is listed as “out” at collegeinjuryreport.com.  Mike Trumpy is probable to play after his concussion last week, which should take some pressure of off Jacob Schmidt and Treyvon Green.  Dan Persa is listed as questionable and is a “co-starter” with Kain Colter on the depth chart.  He shared reps in 11 on 11 drills this week, for the first time this year.  EVR is guessing that Dan will see a drive or two just to shake off the cobwebs a bit.  Non-starters Tony Jones, Roderick Goodlow, Brian Arnfelt, and Jared Carpenter are all questionable with their respective minor injuries.

Jarrett Mackey (#94)
willschneekloth.com

Army quarterback and leading rusher Trent Steelman is probable to play, despite an unspecified injury.  Offensive linemen Derek Bisgard, Momo Kime, and Brad Kelly are also all questionable.  Finally, and maybe the most significant, is that defensive end Jarrett Mackey is questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.  Mackey is the Knights second leading tackler.

Weather Report: Tomorrow will be perfect football weather; high of 68 with a gametime temp around 65.  Partly cloudy with only a 10% chance of rain.  Check with the Weather Channel for updates on the weather.

Inside the Matchups

NU will march its suddenly resurgent running offense against the Navy “double-eagle” defense.  The double eagle is a variation on the famous Chicago Bear defense from the 1985 Super Bowl team.  Army has three true defensive linemen, along with a fourth hybrid player, who is more of a linebacker size, but often plays from a down stance.  Army will also play a linebacker and a defensive back close to the line of scrimmage on the strong side of the offense.  Behind the front 6 are another linebacker and a rover, which is an LB/DB hybrid and finally a single true safety – to go along with the two corners.  It will be curious to see how the double eagle will respond to the NU spread formations.

Erzinger
cstv.com

Army is lead on defense by senior rover Steven Erzinger, who is the team’s leading tackler and one of the only players on the defensive 11 who is built anywhere close to the size that NU will see in Big Ten defenses.  Erzinger is a versatile player who will play both linebacker and in coverage.  He leads the team in tackles for loss with four, including one of the team’s only two sacks.  He will be a key player for the Knights, as the NU front five should simply overpower the Navy DL.

Army has given up a good amount of rushing yards, thus far, averaging 217 yards per game on six yards per carry.  And this was against Northern Illinois and San Diego State – two teams who do not have the size on the offensive line that NU has.  The three down linemen for Army are 225 – 260 – 220 across the board and are led by nose guard A.J. Mackey.  The defensive set is in part designed to provide speed up front to make up for the lack of size – something that the NU spread should be able to neutralize.  The Cats will certainly get their yards on the ground and look to see a lot more Treyvon Green as the Cats look to keep Mike Trumpy healthy and Kain Colter from getting hit as much. 

relayphotos.com

NU should pass the ball more than they did against EIU, when the team only attempted 16 throws.  When they do, look for Colter to pick on freshman corner Lamar Johnson-Harris, who stands only at 5’9” 175.  When NU’s bigger receivers are matched up against him, Harris will struggle.  Free safety Tyler Dickson has the only Army interception of the season, so they are not exactly ball hawks.  The Knights have given up 183 yards per game through the air.

When Army has the ball they present a challenge that the Cats have only had five days to prepare for – the vaunted triple option.  This is the primary weapon for the Knights, who have only attempted 23 passes in two games – for 149 yards.  The option set is run by junior quarterback Trent Steelman.  Not only is he the team’s leading rusher, but he has almost more than twice the carries as anyone else on the team – quite the feat when you consider that six players have more than 13 carries already for Army.  This is indicative of Steelman being a cerebral quarterback, who knows how to read the defense and pitch the ball.  The Cat defense will need to be on guard and watch their pursuit angles.

Steelman makes a timely pitch
nj.com

Fitz admitted that Army is going to get its rushing yards tomorrow, which is a disconcerting thought given the recent history of the run defense.  But the Cats have gotten stingy so far this year.  While NU is giving up 4.5 yards per carry, if you remove two long runs, one from each game, the Cats gave up 1.2 per carry to BC and 2.1 to EIU.  This will certainly be a different attack for the Cats however.  Army’s front five are probably the strength of the team and are the most experienced unit with three seniors and two sophomores.  They are a little small for an O-Line, with the biggest being Center Will Wilson at 285.  If NU can use their size advantage to blow up the option plays before they develop, it will be a much easier day for the back seven.

When Steelman does not keep the ball, his best pitchman is junior tailback Malcolm Brown, who is averaging a scary 8.9 yards per carry.  Brown is backed up by freshman phemon Trenton Turrentine, the team’s third leading rusher.  Joining this crew in the backfield is junior back Raymond Maples and junior fullback Jared Hassin.  Army also rotates in their backups quite a bit, so expect to hear Jon Crucitti and freshman fullback Larry Dixon get their name called as well.

On the rare occasion when Army does throw the ball, Steelman will look primarily to Jared McFarlin, who has five of the nine Army receptions on the season – and the only receiving touchdown.  McFarlin is a large target at 6’5” 195 – so look for Steelman to try to find him matched up against Jaravin Matthews, who had so much trouble with BC’s big receivers two weeks ago.  Lining up across from McFarlin is sophomore Anthony Stephens.  Unless Army completely changes its gameplan, this game will be a nice reprieve for s secondary that has struggled a big through two games.  Look for the NU safeties, instead, to help with run support.

Final Analysis

Northwestern is clearly the more imposing team from a size and speed standpoint, an advantage that will see the most impact early, before Army can adjust, and late, once Army has been worn down.  NU will need to get their points here, as this could be a fairly even game otherwise.  Army’s sets are just quirky enough to give a better team fits – so the Cats will need to take care of the ball and avoid costly penalties.  Like Fitz said, Army is going to get their yards on the ground – NU will just need to hold in the end zone and avoid the big gainer.  Look for NU’s hurry up to drown Army’s defense as well.

sbnation.com

NU will get up 10-0 early and the game will exchange scores until the fourth quarter, when NU will take control for good.  Army, like NU, is a team that will never give up, but Fitz will instill that into the team and the Cats will stay on the gas, scoring a pair of insurance touchdowns late.  In the end the game will never truly be in question as the Cats win 37-17.

Go Cats!

NU Prepares for Army; Recruiting Update; Big Ten Power Rankings

urbangrounds.com

As NU prepares for its third game of the season, the team is well aware that Army presents a challenge despite being vastly undersized.  Army runs the always complicated triple option offense.  And Fitz knows that his front seven will be tested on Saturday.  Moreover, the defense lines up in at 46 set – made famous by the 1985 Chicago Bears.  The Cats outmatch the Army from a personnel standpoint, but this week the team will need to focus on execution because Army’s gameplan is so completely different than anything that NU sees.  Fitz even admits “You’re not going to stop the run this week. They are going to get their yards.”  The focus for NU will be containing the Army offense, instead.  This will be a tricky task to accomplish in one week.

Even though the Cats sit at 2-0, Fitz sees the problems in the team’s execution thus far.  Here are some of his comments at his weekly news conference:

annarbor.com

·         On Jeff Budzein’s missed field goal: “Would I like to see Jeff make that kick? Absolutely. But I also put him in a tough situation by design. Forty-five into the wind. Not a great situation. But I like how he responded to it and that's part of the whole process of the journey of a young kicker."

·         On EIU’s 76-yard touchdown pass against the starting defense: “It was a route we expected to see.  They ran it exactly the way we saw it and we just had a couple men break down and they made a big play. That happens. You'd prefer it didn't happen. But, like I said after the game, we've got to coach it better and that's frustrating."

·         On Kain Colter: "I really like the maturation of Kain, I think he's played really well. He's learning each week and doing the things young quarterbacks need to do to improve. He did some nice things Saturday taking what the defense game him. He checked it down, big first down with Jacob Schmidt and getting the ball to our backs a few times when they were playing two (down linemen) and really dropping everyone else off. That showed some maturity. Other guys'll force it and he didn't. I'm proud of him for that."

scout.com

Finally, for the second week in a row, NU linebacker Bryce McNaul will have some extra inspiration.  Bryce’s brother Austin is an Army Ranger stationed in Afghanistan.  Last week, with the American flag decal on the helmets, Bryce made an interception on top of the star spangled “N” at the 50 yard line.  Hopefully, Bryce can have a similarly inspired game against his brother’s comrades at West Point.

Recruiting Notes

NU commit Malin Jones had a monster night at tailback last weekend.  Jones ran for 242 yards and four touchdowns in Joliet Catholic’s 63-34 win over Peoria Richwoods.

Fitz often talks about the character of the players he recruits, and no one could be a better example than linebacker Jaylen Prater, who committed to NU last month.  Prater’s high school, Wellston high in southern Ohio, was recently featured on ESPN’s “Rise Up”, where ESPN and Chris Spielman help a run-down high school program to improve their athletic facilities.  Prater is featured in the program, where he speaks about choosing to stay in his hometown, even though his football talents might be better served if his family moved to a better situation.  His family also speaks about the importance of the academic part of his football scholarship.  Jaylen should be a great fit at NU and it is no wonder why he impressed Fitz and his staff.

Stud defensive end Faith Ekakitie has reduced his favorite list to six.  The Illinois prospect for 2012 is down to NU, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Oregon, and UCLA.  Here’s hoping for the hometown discount.  Finally, three-star CB Nana Kyeremeh has reduced his college list to three, which includes NU.

usatoday.net

Big Ten Power Rankings

Legends Division

1 Michigan State (+1): Michigan State will be tested by a Notre Dame team with a very dangerous offense – if it can hold on to the ball.  MSU is the most impressive team in the Legends through two weeks, and can solidify that role with a strong performance in South Bend.

2 Nebraska (-1): Every team has bad weeks, and maybe it is unfair to downgrade Nebraska after their performance against Fresno.  But they were losing in the fourth quarter – and their vaunted defense gave up 29 points at home.  There is plenty of time to see, but this was an early sign of chinks in the armor.

3 Northwestern: NU has been one of the most consistent teams in the conference so far, along with Illinois and Wisconsin.  While the running game is a pleasant surprise, the pass defense needs to improve in order to keep this ranking in the Big Ten season.

4 Michigan (+1): Without question, Michigan played in one of the most exciting game you will ever see on Saturday.  But it was also one of the ugliest – with penalties and turnovers plaguing both Michigan and Notre Dame.  Time will tell the story of these two teams, but at this point, EVR says buy Michigan only with extreme caution.

5 Iowa (-1): Losing to Iowa State is unacceptable, even if it is a rivalry game.  This game only goes to show that Iowa just does not have the talent that it has enjoyed over the last few years.  Iowa will get its wins, but it will not be a pretty year for them.  Saturday against Pitt is a must win.

6 Minnesota: First off, Jerry Kill is expected to be back on the sidelines on Saturday against Miami of Ohio; which is great news considering he suffered a seizure on the sideline Saturday while Minnesota was driving to tie the game.  Best wishes to Kill.  But the fact that the Gophers were driving to tie the game at that point earns them the 6 spot.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: More of the same for the Badgers.  Wisconsin made another statement against a down-and-out Oregon State squad.  After two weeks, they are clearly the best team in the league.

2 Illinois: The Illini will finally be tested this week against Arizona State – in one of the most underrated games of the weekend.  If Illinois can continue to play at this level, they will have a lot to say in the Leaders Division race.

3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes narrowly escaped a historic loss to Toledo over the weekend, and it is not going to get any easier as they travel to Miami on Saturday.  But the lack of focus and execution in light of the off-the-field issues is something that Buckeye fans are going to need to get used to in 2011.

4 Penn State: No one expected that with Penn State playing at home the result would be worse than it was against Alabama last year – but it was.  The Lions are a team that needs an identity right now – and naming a starting quarterback will go a long way towards accomplishing that.  Surviving Temple this weekend will be no small task.

T-6 Purdue (-1):  Yes, EVR is not even giving either of the Indiana teams the 5 spot after their start. Purdue lost to Rice.  There is no excuse for that.  This is a program on the brink of disaster right now.

T-6 Indiana: The Hoosiers had their game in hand until a late meltdown gave Virginia the win.  Indiana needs a miracle to get bowl eligible at this point and four wins would have to be considered a success now in Kevin Wilson’s first year.

Go Cats!