Revisiting Army; the Anatomy of an Upset

First off, EVR apologizes for going AWOL this week.  The post-Army hangover was too great on Sunday morning and EVR’s “real job” has been getting in the way.  Even EVR needs a bye week.

NU lost to Army.  There is not much more to say about it.  Those who watched know how it happened; those who did not watch – well those fans are probably better off.  There are three things that can be said about losing to Army.  The first is that Northwestern should not lose to Army.  Period.  End of discussion.

But it is also very little to get upset about losing to Army or any service academy.  The service academies represent everything that is good and pure about college football.  And if the Cats are going to lose to any team, Army is one of the few that are tolerable. 

Finally, the one thing that gives Cat fans solace about losing to Army is the very thing that frustrates them the most.  And that is this: this was an upset; NU is better than Army; NU will make a bowl; NU will beat someone that it should not to make up for it.  Why do Cat fans feel that way?  Well, that is the frustrating part… because NU has seen this all too often…

’06 New Hampshire; ’07 Duke; ’08 Indiana; ’09 Syracuse; ’10 Purdue; ’11 Army.  Every year of the Fitz tenure, NU has suffered a devastating upset.  Cat fans have grown to expect it; and those with negative inclinations even picked Army as the trap game of the 2011 season.  In attempting to process the Army loss, EVR has done some research.  And while this will not necessarily demonstrate why NU has a tendency to lose these games; the goal is to show how it happens.

The easy way to describe this trend is that NU comes into these upset games overconfident.  And there is some merit to this.  NU is an incredible 18-1 going into the 6 Fitz upsets.  There is some indication of looking ahead as well.  NU’s opponents after the upsets included Ohio State (’07), a red hot Minnesota (’08), a decent Minnesota (’09), an undefeated Michigan State (’10), and a likely undefeated Illinois this year.

But there is far more similarity to those losses than meets the eye.  Look at the Duke, Indiana, Purdue and Army losses.  The New Hampshire game is Fitz’s second career game and had a freshman at quarterback – not to mention that New Hampshire was probably actually better than NU that year.  The Syracuse game showed us one of the best passing performances in NU history – but for the brutal Kafka interception that set up the game winning field goal.  NU also had a secondary that was decimated by injuries, so it is a bit of an outlier.

Here is a look at the four remaining upset games, as compared the NU’s season stats.  Note that the season stats are the game-by-game average with the upset game removed:

		NU Pts.	NU Pts.		Opp Pts.	Opp. Pts.		NU off yds.	NU off yds.		Opp. Off yds.	Opp. Off yds
Year	Game	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff
2007	Duke	14	25	(11)	20	28	(8)	506	386	120	309	370	(61)
2008	Indiana	19	25	(6)	21	20	1	316	362	(46)	319	342	(23)
2010	Purdue	17	27	(10)	20	30	(10)	389	391	(2)	279	438	(159)
2011	Army	14	33	(19)	21	19	2	309	430	(121)	387	398	(11)

This explains a great deal.  NU consistently scored considerably below its season average in its upset losses.  Meanwhile its offensive yardage output was not too far off.  Thus suggests that the team is moving the ball at its normal rate, but not converting the scores.  It is clear that offensive efficiency is a clear indicator that an upset is in the cards.

Meanwhile, in the four subject games, the defense plays to its average, if not significantly better than normal.  In the Purdue game last year, the defense played one of its best statistical games of the season, but it was not enough.

Another common theme is the setting of the game.  Each of these losses – and you can throw back in the Syracuse game for this one – was either on the road or at night.  In other words, it was a setting that is out of the Wildcat comfort zone.

So how does this happen?  Stop if you have heard this one before.  NU comes out and the offense sputters.  Underdog gets an early score.  Underdog’s defense makes a few nice stops and gains some confidence.  Halftime is uncomfortably close.  As the game wears on NU starts to doubt itself on offense, while its defense begins to tire.  While the defense is playing well, it can no longer withstand the disadvantage in the time of possession.  Underdog gets a late score.  NU has a chance to win or tie at the end, but the highly confident and rested underdog defense makes the final stand.

Granted, not every upset happens this way.  But it certainly is closer to the rule than the exception.  Just look at the low scores in NU upsets over the years (defined as unranked NU teams over ranked opponents):

·         2010: NU 21 Iowa 17

·         2009: NU 17 Iowa 10

·         2008: NU 24 Minnesota 17

·         2004: NU 13 Purdue 10

·         2003: NU 16 Wisconsin 7

·         1997: NU 19 Michigan State 17

·         1995: NU 17 Notre Dame 15

·         1993: NU 22 Boston College 21

·         1991: NU 17 Illinois 11

While NU has certainly had some higher scoring upsets, the low-scoring affair is generally the more likely recipe.  As can be seen by the stats above, the underdog has a much better chance when their defense is playing well.  On the other hand, generally, when the teams are locked in a shootout, the favored team will prevail.  College football is a game of emotion and defense is the more emotional side of the ball.  If your defense makes some stops early, the offense will eventually score a few points and keep you in the game.  That is when upsets happen.

Why make this analysis?  Well look at how it applied to the Army game.

While the defense gave up 381 yards rushing, it only gave up 6 yards passing.  Army was the best offense that NU has seen in their three games and they held them to their lowest output of the year.  The 387 was still 50 yards less than the average given up by the Cats in 2010; and the 381 rushing by Army was lower than its average in its first two games.  So while it is easy to blame the defense, the statistics suggest otherwise.

That said, the NU defense failed to make big stops when they needed to and the most telling stat of the game was Army’s 3-3 on fourth down.  Army scored on its first drive of the game – but NU made some adjustments and stopped them the rest of the half.  Army made halftime adjustments, and scored on their first drive of the second half.  The NU defense then made four consecutive stops including three drives which totaled nine plays.  But in the end, the NU defense was tired and worn down from the option attack.  After a 14-play drive ended in a missed field goal, NU scored on a quick three-play drive.  The Wildcat defense was gassed and gave up the winning score.

But it was the offense that was the scapegoat in this game.  NU had four three-and-outs including three drives which resulted in negative yardage.  They had three consecutive three-and-outs in the second half.  Prior to the quick touchdown drive late in the game, NU had zero yards of total offense in the second half.  NU’s failure to convert on the first drive of the game and then again on the field goal attempt at the half was the beginning of the end.  These are the things that give an underdog defense its confidence.

One final note: Saturday marked the first time that Fitz removed a QB for strictly performance-based reasons.  Certainly he has sat a starter late during a blowout – and the two-QB system during the end of 2010 was by design.  But for the first time in six years, Fitz made the election to go with someone else while the game was still in doubt.  How this plays in the mind of Kain Colter moving forward will be interesting to watch in the next few years.  With all due respect to Kain, here’s hoping that we do not see him again this season – with the return of Dan Persa on the horizon.

So with no NU game this weekend, let’s look at the Big Ten Power Rankings.

Legends Division

1 Nebraska (+1): Nebraska gets the top spot back by default.  While the game ended in a convincing win, Nebraska again looked mediocre in the first half.  They may have some early issues again when they go to Laramie to face an undefeated Wyoming team.  While Nebraska will likely win, their confidence will continue to be shaken, which is not a good preparation for the Wisconsin showdown.

2 Michigan State (-1): Michigan State managed to force a few turnovers in South Bend and still was destroyed by the Irish.  The young Spartan defense was exposed by the Notre Dame skill players.  While ND sports a better offensive cast than most of the Big Ten; MSU still has some defensive concerns going into conference play.

T-3 Northwestern: If history repeats itself, the Cats will recover from their upset loss and prove that it was just that, an upset.  Dan Persa should return and the Cats should still be an outside contender for the Legends crown.  On the other hand, they had an off week after the Purdue loss last year and still lost to MSU; so the extra week before Illinois may be a non sequitur.

T-3 Michigan (+1): Michigan moves up as one of the four undefeated teams in the conference; although they probably do not deserve the promotion.  Blue’s next test is against NU, so EVR will let them decide it on the field.  They do have a tough test against Brady Hoke’s former team, San Diego State, on Saturday.

5 Iowa: Iowa needed a miracle to avoid losing their season against Pitt.  And this was clearly a game where Pitt simply lost their focus.  Iowa needs a lot of work to get back to where they expect to finish and until then will be secured in the 5 spot.

6 Minnesota: EVR was happy to see the Gophers pick up their first win after two heartbreaking losses.  Minnesota is probably better than Indiana and Purdue, but without playing IU, that still only results in a 3-9 season.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: Wisconsin is sleepwalking through their non-conference schedule.  They should and will be favored against Nebraska on October 1.  With chinks in the armor on the Legends side, November 19 at Illinois could be the Big Ten game of the year.

2 Illinois: Very impressive.  Illinois passed their first true test with flying colors; issuing a minor upset against a ranked Arizona State 17-14 (see analysis above).  Ron Zook has these guys playing very well.  They are the second best team in the division, they avoid Nebraska and Michigan State, and they get Wisconsin and Ohio State at home.  Their toughest road game is Penn State.  The Illini could win 10 games easily.

3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes played one of their most pathetic games of the last ten years Saturday night.  Even the 2008 loss to USC was a loss to a clearly better team.  Miami is a good-but-not-great team made to look like world-beaters by a Buckeye team on the brink.  Colorado has looked competent; but it is a must win as the Buckeyes follow the Buffs with Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin – in that order.  Brutal.

4 Penn State: For the second year in a row, Penn State almost lost to Temple.  But they are still better than Purdue and IU.  PSU will get well with a handful of winnable games which they must sweep if they want to be assured of a season above .500.

T-5 Purdue: Purdue and IU get back their T-5 position after a pair of solid wins over inferior opponents.  Purdue was very efficient on offense and looked like a pretty good team -- even against an inferior opponent.  They get two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame, when reality will set back in. 

T-5 Indiana: The Hoosiers face North Texas in week four – which is their last legitimate chance to win a game until the Purdue game at the end of the season.  Kevin Wilson will do some nice things once Gunner Kiel gets on campus.  But he will need to wait until next year to start that project.

Go Cats!

Wrigley Game: The Aftermath

There is a lot to get to today as I squeeze in three days of work and this blog between a trip to Chicago and traveling for the holiday – so I will get right to it.

First off, I think I speak for the majority of NU fans (and Illini fans, obviously) when I say that I had an absolute blast on Saturday.  Regardless of the fingerpointing, the national publicity, the brutal run defense, etc., from a fan standpoint, this was a complete success.  Whether this truly was once in a lifetime, or whether this becomes the stepping stone for future events, it is certainly memorable for all who attended.

I sat behind a dad who had four young boys with him.  They were all old enough to understand football and will certainly always remember this moment.  They could go to dozens of Cubs games during their childhood.  They will always remember the NU-Wrigley Game.

The game, itself, was memorable for a number of reasons.  The first quarter was absolutely crazy.  I remarked at the end of it that it reminded me of the fourth quarter of the Outback Bowl.  Something was always happening.  Five touchdowns, four turnovers, a missed field goal, and a touchdown in the forbidden end zone.  While the pace of the game certainly settled down after that, the stadium was electric for the entire first hour.

The obvious criticism of the Cats was the run defense.  To say that this was a poor effort was an understatement – the Cats missed 31 tackles.  I was sitting in the “good” end zone and watched the majority of the game throguh binoculars.  It seemed like every play for Illinois a big hole opened up and suddenly Lushoure came marching through.

So what happened?  A unit by unit look explains a lot.  The Defensive Line accounted for six of the team’s seven tackles for loss.  So it is hard to say that they were not being aggressive and getting off blocks – in fact, a large amount of the missed tackles were DL tackles in the backfield.  But perhaps they were being too aggressive and allowing the holes to be opened.  Basically each play then became a crapshoot, where the Illini back was either going to get hit in the backfield or open up a big gain, because…

The Linebackers were nowhere to be found.  NU’s linebackers only recorded one tackle for loss and were consistantly out of position the entire game.  The Illini OC said that they noticed that the NU linebackers were overpersuing at the snap, which was opening up cutback lanes.  And that’s what they did all day: handoff to Lushoure, two steps left, cut back right, run through the gaping hole.  On the option runs, NU often only had one man covering two.  And when two backers were covering the play, they did not contain the pitch man. 

Of all the ways that NU could have lost this game, the lack of a run defense was the last thing that I would have ever considered to be the reason.  And the pass defense, while not really needed, played more than effectively.  Illinios ran 14 pass plays, completing sic, with two interceptions, three passes broken up, and three QB hurries.  Clearly the Illinois spreak offense had an effect on this as NU consistantly had to play three corners and two safeties, leaving only six big men to cover the run.  Maybe putting a safety on a receiver and adding a LB would have helped – but we will never know.

In the end, on the defensive side, Illinois ran 84 plays to NU’s 48 and had the ball for almost 42 minutes.  As one fan said in the concourse after the game, “Dan Persa don’t play defense.”  Even Danny boy could not have helped the Cats out of this one.

The Offensive, under the circumstances, was not horrible.  And the running game was actually quite effective.  Mike Trumpy had the longest NU run since 1983.  But he also averaged more than four yards per carry on his other 12 runs.  Adonis Smith avergaged 6.7 yards.  After you take out the three sacks, Watkins scrambled four times for 31 yards.  And Kain Colter ran three times, two for first downs.  While 48 plays is hardly enough time to develop an offense, NU only ran 25 true running plays (i.e., not counting sacks).  But, taking out the long Trumpy run, the Cats averaged 4.95 yards per carry on the other 24 runs.  But the Cats only ran the ball three plays in a row once in the entire game – on the second drive of the game.  Everyone expected that NU would need to run the ball well in order to stay in the game.  The problem was that they did run the ball well, but never got a chance to stay in control.

The passing game was about what we could have expected out of the situation.  Once Evan Watkins go the nerves out of his system he played pretty well, demonstrating a nice arm at times.  The first five pass plays were knocked-down pass, sack/fumble, 13 yard game, incompletion, interception.  After that, Watkins was 9 for 16 for 119 yards, one TD, no picks.  This would be good first half statistics.  Unfortunately, the Cats did not run enough plays to see this play out.  Watkins demonstrated that the Cats have something a little different to look forward to in 2012.  My early prediction is that Evan develops quite well in December and comes out poised and ready to lead the team in its bowl game.

A few notes on the special teams.  We finally got a chance to see Venric Mark really run – and even though you cannot like the fumble on the play, he broke tackles and made people miss – and almost scored in the forbidden zone.  Demos looked pretty solid, but could not get a good kickoff into the steady east-west wind. 

The gametime atmosphere was hard to describe.  Gameday got NU students out of bed and into Wrigleyville by 5:00 a.m.  Sheffield transformed into a portable Wildcat Alley.  The bars and restaurants were packed and house parties popped up all over the neighborhood.  It was, as Jim Phillips described his vision, a Bowl game in Chicago.

So what is the effect?  NU stated that the goal of this game is to increase ticket sales in Evanston.  This plan has been criticized because most outsiders assume that this means that NU hopes to convert fans.  I believe that this is not the case.  The point is to motivate existing fans.

Case in point, the most highly attended non-conference game since 1995 was the 1998 game against Duke, where NU lost 44-10.  The game drew more than 41,000.  This fact alone disproves a number of the myths about Northwestern attendance.  It was a game in September on, by all accounts and my memory, a nice day; it was a non-conference game; it was against a bad opponent; it was an opponent that was not close enough to bring a large contingent of its own, and it was a bad NU team.  My point being is that there are NU fans out there.  The Athletic Department does not need to create new fans, it needs to motivate the existing fan base.

So did this work?  Time will tell, and I can only speak from my own observations.  I saw college friends who live in the Chicago area who I do not normally see at games.  But more importantly, in addition to my trip from Canton, Ohio, I had friends in from New York City, Traverse City, MI, Nashville, TN, Austin, TX, St. Paul, MN, and Las Vegas.  So to the extent that was the goal – I would say that it was a success.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone, enjoy the turkey and the football and check back on Friday for what will probably be a depressing preview of the Wisconsin game.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Bittersweet Victory

In a ten minute span, Dan Persa single-handedly gave new hope to the Wildcat season and re-opened the door, slightly, to a New Year’s Day Bowl game.  But he paid a mighty price for his play, which both made Persa a martyr and thrust #25 Northwestern back into the national spotlight.

First, my bold statement of the day.  Northwestern and Iowa is the best rivalry in the Big Ten over the last 10 years, and it will only continue to get better.  With the small exception of a few Bielema-esque blowouts by Iowa, every game has been close and meant something to either or both teams.  Iowa fans have finally gotten over the “just Northwestern” stereotype of this game; making it must see TV for fans of both schools now.  Additionally, with both teams now competing annually for the West-ish Division Title, the games will take on even more meaning.  No other matchup in the Big Ten has provided as many thrills over the last ten years – not even OSU-Michigan.

Fitz was cited this week by Adonis Smith, who is gaining an odd reputation for talking out of turn, for saying that he hates Iowa.  He, of course, deflected the comment publically.  But in his off-the-field interview with Sam Valenzisi after the first half, he screamed in the voice of a man on a mission, “there are no moral victories in red-letter games.”  Yes, Iowa does mean more to NU, and this goes back to the early years of the Expect Victory Era.  Gary Barnett always said that NU should strive as a program to be as successful as Iowa – a reasonable goal, which did not raise the expectations to the level of OSU, Michigan, or PSU – but to a level where wins are expected, but still appreciated by a fan base that is loyal through thick and thin.  Randy Walker, and now Fitz have continued this mantra, and today Iowa is a “red-letter game.”

Like him or not, I have some new-found respect for Kirk Ferentz after Saturday.  In the handshake after the game, you could specifically hear him ask Fitz how Persa was doing.  This was a class move for Ferentz, who could have easily done the typical shake and turn.  The mutual respect that Fitz and this team have gained across the conference is infectious. 

Which brings us to the obvious: Dan Persa’s achilles.  It is one of those injuries that truly only occurs on a freak play, like the one we all saw on Saturday.  But Persa’s surgery was “textbook” and he is scheduled to be at full strength by late spring.  Teddy Greenstein reports in the Trib about the status of the situation.  Also, you can follow a humorous (or humerus perhaps?) account of the recovery at www.twitter.com/dannysachilles.  For what it is worth, Persa was named the Walter Camp National Player of the Week for his performance and finishes the season as the Big Ten’s all time leader in completion percentage for a season.

So who is Evan Watkins, and do the Cats stand a chance?  He is described as having great speed "for a guy his size", but will certainly not be as quick as Persa.  He can throw on the run pretty well and he rushed for 750 yards in 24 high school games.  He is 6'6" 245 -- which is 5 lbs. lighter than Cam Newton and 10 lbs. heavier than Terrell Pryor (both 6’6”); so yes, he is an enormous man.  Our offense is pretty plug and play for quick passes, so as long as he is at least competent with reading defenses, that should work.  Other than the 3rd&11 against IU, he has not completed a pass yet that was needed.  He also threw a brutal pass into double coverage on the next drive.  Evidently, Evan has a strong arm, but less touch, which may open up the vertical game in a way NU has not experimented with this year.  All in all, it sounds like Evan is more similar to Mike Kafka than Persa. 

In short, one of the biggest advantages is that Illinois has absolutely no film on Watkins (think Kafka vs. Minnesota 2008).  I would look for a few Newton/Tebow-style planned runs early to get him comfortable with the hits and the carries and also to open up Trumpy and the intermediate passing game.  I would also look for more read-option instead of straight run-option like NU has been doing (with limited success).  As long as the defense keeps the Cats within a touchdown, I would look for a pretty tight playbook until at least mid-way through the fourth quarter; both to get his confidence raised and also to limit the film on him in the event that the Cats win easily.  Obviously, Fitz and McCall will have to open things up if the Cats are down or close in the second half.  Good luck Evan!

In case anyone is wondering, McCall is preparing both true freshman QB’s, Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian, to serve in the backup role should something happen to Evan.

Which brings me, finally, to the game itself.  Without question, the defense played admirably and finally played tough for the entire game.  I would attribute the Iowa scores to a matter of, “it was bound to happen eventually,” rather than any sort of systemic lapse of focus.  The Cats missed an opportunity to stop Iowa on fourth day which led to the first half field goal.  Iowa’s first touchdown was set up by a pass to McNutt; Iowa literally ran the same play from the same formation – just to the opposite side for the touchdown.  So there were definitely some coverage issues for the Cats that the Hawks were exploiting.  Similarly, the DJK touchdown was one-on-one coverage with no safeties – and a four-man rush.  What the other six defenders were doing at the time is unknown.

Fitz has gone on record as saying that the reason for his success against Iowa has been the turnover battle.  Well, that was not the case Saturday, as the turnovers were even.  Instead, NU’s defense just outplayed Iowa’s offense in the end.  The run defense was suffocating at times, and more than adequate at others.  Stanzi made a terrible play by throwing the pick to Peters, but Peters still had to be there to make the play.  More than anything, the defense finished for the first time all year.  What do Vandy, Rice, CMU, Purdue, MSU and Indiana all have in common?  They all scored on their last (legitimate) possession against the Cats defense.  Congrats on not adding Iowa to that list.

The offense was as efficient as it could have been given the talent of Iowa’s defense.  It did have a missed FG, a brutal tipped interception, and two many drops.  It also had drives stalled by an illegal touching and an intentional grounding – both of which were good calls, but it was highly entertaining to hear Fitz yelling at the refs – “you guys have been terrible all day.”  But NU scored the first touchdown of the game for the 10^th game in a row and obviously made the two touchdown drives when it mattered.  Kudos to the team for making it a great Senior Day game.

Iowa has to be the biggest disappointment of the Big Ten this year.  At 7-3, they are looking 8-4 square in the face; in a year where they were an outside contender for a National Championship.  When Stanzi threw the interception, the team looked like it had already lost – and it had a 10-point lead.  It was almost as if Stanzi went for the kill shot on that pass because the team had nothing left. 

And Iowa’s defense, supposedly full of future NFL talent is an absolute fraud.  The Linebacker, #44, James Morris was getting burnt all day – but why was he covering NU’s wideouts?  The DBs were giving NU tons of cushion – apparently, to guard against our dangerous vertical attack.  And the defensive line should lose their scholarships.  If their DE’s cannot play for 60 minutes, they do not deserve to be out there.  The team should be ashamed of its conditioning program, because that was one of the primary reasons that the NU scoring drives were so easy.  On draft day, rather than showing clips of Adrian Clayborn sacking quarterbacks and blocking punts, Mel Kiper should show clips of him kneeling on the sidelines and keeping the hair out of his face while his mates were letting their Big Ten Title chances slip through their fingers.

Finally, cheers to the Seniors who had big days in their final appearance at Ryan Field:

·         Sidney Stewart – 5 catches, 46 yards.

·         Nate Williams – 5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 pass broken up, 1 QB hurry

·         Justan Vaughn – 4 tackles

·         Quentin Davie – 4 tackles

So, what does all of this mean for the Bowl picture?  While this win opened up a few more doors to New Year’s Day, winning this game means almost nothing when it comes to Bowl selection – as NU is likely still going to Texas to play in either the Texas Bowl or the TicketCity.com Bowl (formerly the Dallas Football Classic).  Why?

Assume that Iowa (OSU, Minny) and NU both finish out 1-1.  Iowa, despite having the same overall record and the head-to-head loss, will have a better conference record than NU – thus justifying the fourth bowl slot.  Assume PSU also finishes 1-1 (Indiana, MSU).  They will also get picked ahead of NU because of the same conference record and the head-to-head victory, notwithstanding the worse head-to-head record – not to mention the potential to host Joe Paterno’s last game.  Assume Michigan loses out (Wisconsin, OSU).  They would have a worse conference record and overall record, but is certainly the sexier team, especially given that they have not been bowling in two years.  The lack of a head-to-head will hurt NU in this situation.  In other words, NU gets pushed down to seventh, which is where they would have been had they never beaten Iowa to begin with.

But here is where is gets messed up.  What if all of the above happen, except NU beats Wisconsin.  The Big Ten would then only score one team in the BCS and the Gator Bowl would have its pick of Iowa (8-4, 5-3), NU (9-3, 5-3), PSU (8-4, 5-3), and Michigan (7-5, 3-5).   As a brand new Bowl game for the Big Ten, it has its pick of the litter – but the one person that it may never have a chance to host again is Joe Paterno – and I think that this is the direction it will go.  NU would then, likely, end up in Tempe for the Insight bowl.  Really the only hope for a “big” NYD game is a complete 0-2 meltdown by both Iowa and PSU.

There is a ton more to talk about this week with the Land of Lincoln game, Wrigley Field, ESPN Gameday and more Bowl prediction talk.  So keep checking up on EVR!

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Meltdown

For the second time in three weeks, Northwestern allowed a three-score first half lead disappear – this time in less dramatic, but utterly submissive fashion.  I suppose that it is only appropriate that Joe Paterno’s historic win came in a game where adjustments were made, momentum was shifted, and his team prevailed on the crest of an emotional wave created by the fans and the players that adore him – the hallmarks of college football and his career.  Hats off; as much as it kills me to say it.

There is not much else to say about the game.  After building a dominating 21-point lead, PSU scored on five consecutive possessions; and NU ran 11 offensive plays in the interim – totaling only 26 yards in that stretch.  So this post is only going to touch on a few things about the game itself, and then review some more “big picture” issues.

Although it was all for naught, it is worth reviewing the first 29 minutes for what it really was – the most dominating 29 minutes of Big Ten football that NU has played all season.  The offense was clicking and had Penn State back on its heels.  PSU actually appeared to be shocked that NU was running the ball so often – and so well.  The defense was smothering, and even in McGloin’s first few drives, forced bad passes on top of short runs, leading to a number of third-and-longs. 

This really gave a true depiction of what these players are, in fact, capable of – given the correct circumstances.  And also, while we are still living in the present, should provide large amounts of confidence for 2011.  Northwestern did not have a single offensive player touch the ball who will not be back next year.  Keegan Grant, Sidney Stewart, and Josh Rooks were the only NU seniors to line up on the offensive side of the ball.  Amazingly, NU will only be recognizing 12 seniors on Senior Day on Saturday.  That is a very exciting proposition.

But the youth may have also been the downfall on Saturday.  As EVR reader Phil, said in an email:

I also think I've underestimated all year how young we are. Out of the regular contributors, we have as many freshmen as seniors. Think about that. That makes a huge difference, especially given that we've always needed those extra years to mold and develop talent, as opposed to the Florida plug-n-play talent or the JUCO all-stars system (e.g., Illinois' 26-year old convicted felon JUCO transfer). Anyway, you can just see the youth in the penalties and the momentum swings. Look at how fired up the defense and special teams were in the first half. They were killing people and getting pumped up after every play. Then they disappeared….

Unlike the hardened veterans of the NFL, mojo/momentum really matters [in college]. A lot. As soon as PSU got rolling, all the NU players started thinking, "Not this again" and immediately played like scared little girls.

Please do not misunderstand this viewpoint – the youth on the team is not an excuse.  But it is an explanation.  Hopefully, the trials and tribulations of this season will be valuable lessons for this team as they continue to gain experience for 2011 and beyond.

It is also important to remember that so much of college football is based on motivation and emotion – and more importantly controlling and focusing that emotion.  And that falls on the coach.  Fitz has done an amazing job over the last few years with road victories, where NU is among the leaders in the nation.  But we also have to be mindful that Fitz is a young coach as well.  And he is constantly faced with new situations where he must manage the emotions of his players.  Not many coaches will ever be faced with a 21 point lead, on the road in front of 109,000 fans, against Joe Paterno, who is coaching for his 400^th win – let alone a coach who has been a head coach for only 57 games.

We all expect Fitz to have a long career.  But when he looks back on his career, this game will rank along with the New Hampshire loss, the Michigan State comeback, the Duke and Indiana losses, and the Missouri and Auburn Bowl games as teaching moments for himself.  He never truly had the opportunity to be mentored along; but has done a damn good job of it, notwithstanding.

Finally, and especially in light of my NU-Illinois post last week, I want to touch on the disastrous implications that this Saturday had on NU’s Bowl assignment hopes.  Not only did NU’s loss put them even (at 6-3) with Penn State, but Michigan’s overtime track meet raised their record to 6-3 as well.  Had both games gone the other way, NU would have been two games up on both teams – meaning they would only need to keep pace in order to be guaranteed by rule to be selected above them.  Now, NU will need to win two more games than PSU (who won head to head) and Michigan (who NU does not play) in order to be picked ahead of them.  Given the history, fan base, and coaching side-stories of both teams, the chances of this are basically zero.

But this does not mean all is lost.  A win against Illinois (and I am not suggesting that this is a given) or two Big Ten teams in the BCS (also not a given, but likely), will assure that NU is not playing in Detroit on December 26.  The Detroit game is against the MAC and played on a NFL Sunday.  The readers of this blog may be the only people watching.  But given that alternative, the Texas and Insight Bowls are prime time(ish) weeknight games with no TV competition; and the Dallas Bowl game is 11:00 EST on New Year’s Day, with a kickoff an hour before the rest of the games begin.  None of these are perfect scenarios, but as NU has shown in the past – put an exciting product on the field, and people will watch.

In the end, Saturday’s game was such a tale of two halves, that it is almost impossible to break it down to X’s and O’s.  This was a game that swayed with emotion and momentum – and not necessarily on talent or game-planning.  It was also, in many ways, a microcosm of NU’s season so far.

There is a lot of football left to be played, as we are at the final quarter poll of the season.  This is where NU has stepped on the gas in 2008 and 2009 – and if the first 29 minutes are any indication, all three of the games are winnable.  But Fitz is really going to need to manage the focus and execution of his young team if he wants to avoid a deep downward spiral.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Cats Defense Solid; NU Bowl Eligible

Two touchdown passes from Persa to Ebert and two Demos field goals set the table for an outstanding defensive performance.  IU’s late touchdown made the final score much closer than the reality, but the Cats are now “bowl eligible” for the fourth consecutive year and the seventh time in the last eight seasons.

I spent yesterday driving home from Bloomington and I spent today reviewing emails, which provided mixed interpretations of the victory.  So I have had plenty of time to digest both my trip and the game.  The game was not particularly exciting.  What was expected to be a high scoring affair was a defensive struggle.  Neither team ever took a stronghold of the momentum, but the Cats in the second half took the lead, and then just turned it over to their defense.

Before getting into the details of the game, the win itself had some significance.  It was the sixth consecutive road win, which is the longest NU road streak in 80 years.  And while “bowl eligible” is in many ways a code word for just mediocre, it is the consistency of six-win seasons that continues to demonstrate that this is truly a new era of Northwestern football. 

If you simply look at Ben Chappell’s passing stats, it is hard to understand why the defense was the star of this game.  Chappell was 30-56 for 308 yards and a late touchdown.  But most of Chappell’s passing happened between his own 20 and NU’s 40.  Once IU got to midfield, the Cats’ defense took over and stymied the Hoosiers.  IU only crossed midfield five times and ran plays inside the 35 on only two drives – one which resulted in a critical missed field goal.

The NU run defense was very strong, giving up only 65 yards on 21 carries.  Trea Burgess was the leading Hoosier runner with 37 yards, most of which came on a 15 yard run.  IU is certainly a one-dimensional team, but so is Minnesota and the Gophers ran well against NU.  NU’s front four stood its ground and allowed the linebackers to do their jobs.  Bryce McNaul had another monster game with 13 tackles.  NU consistently was ready for IU’s misdirection runs and end around attempts – a run attempt by WR Tandon Doss was stopped for a loss of three.

Coach Hank took an interesting approach to the passing game.  He did not put on much of a pass rush and the Cats did not sack Chappell even once. And the Cats gave up a lot of passing yards on the sidelines, again mostly between the IU 20 and the Cats 40.  But once IU crossed onto NU’s side of the field, the secondary stepped up and made plays, consistently.  Chappell had far more success throwing to his right as Jordan Mabin completely shut down Tandon Doss, who only managed four catches for 34 yards.  Curiously, NU lined up Quentin Davie at defensive end for at least a dozen plays.  Despite no sacks, he recorded three hurries coming off Chappell’s right side, which may explain some of his troubles throwing to his left.

In the end, this was the textbook depiction of “bend but don’t break.”  The Cats did not have to be too aggressive at any point, they kept the offensive in front of them, and they did not give up many big plays – only two above 20 yards.  This is the best the Cats have played against a spread offense in two years; and while most expected NU to win, hardly anyone expected them to hold IU to 17 points.

On offense, the story of the game was Mike Trumpy and the continued improvements of the running game.  Trumpy ran 21 times for 110 yards – more than five yards per carry.  Smith and Fields saw a few carries, but Trumpy was the workhorse and may have finally solidified his spot as the feature back that NU has been looking for since Tyrell Sutton graduated.  Trumpy’s running was especially important in the fourth quarter when the Cats were salting the game away. 

But this team still lives and dies by the play of Dan Persa and the passing game.  It is no coincidence that NU is 6-0 when Persa throws a touchdown pass and 0-2 when he does not.  Persa continues to thrill NU fans and confound opposing defenses with his accuracy and his ability to evade the pass rush.  His run and throw on the first touchdown pass to Ebert was one of the most athletic plays he has made all season.  And his third quarter touchdown pass to Ebert was probably the most accurate pass he threw all game.  He was not quite as efficient at 18-28 passing, but in his defense, the wind was brutal – I would say worse than the MSU game.  

Persa left the game midway through the fourth quarter with a concussion, apparently.  It was announced today that he is expected to play against Penn State as long as he practices on Wednesday.

Speaking of the wind, the special teams had no problems with it – as this unit played the best game of the year.  Where to begin?  Stephan Demos made two field goals including a fantastic kick into the wind to seal the win in the fourth quarter.  Brandon Williams averaged 37 yards per kick, and that included an inexplicable 20-yard punt WITH the wind (the only special teams faux pas).  He also managed to give Tandon Doss only one chance to return a punt, which the coverage team stopped for only nine yards.  Kevin Watt partially blocked a punt, which helped to set up the final Demos FG.

But it was the difference in kick returns that was the “behind the numbers” key to the game.  NU kicked off four times, averaging 68.5 yards per kick, with two touchbacks.  IU averaged 22.5 yards on the two kicks they returned for an average start on the 23-yard line.  This allowed the defense plenty of room to play its game without worrying that one big play would put the Hoosiers in FG range.  And when IU kicked off, Venric Mark looked like a guy ready to explode.  He is going to break one soon.

The atmosphere in Bloomington was tense for this game.  IU really needed this win to have a chance at bowl eligibility.  The Indiana student newspaper displayed the headline “Revenge?” in a nod to last years’ 25-point NU comeback.  IU is a school that is trying really hard to be a football school, and for that reason, the fans and the team were fired up for this game.  Fortunately, the Cats were up for the challenge.

Now, I have read a lot of emails today about the disappointment that the Cats were only able to beat IU by three; pointing primarily to the penalties as a primary reason.  And my first reaction was to say, “a win is a win; and now the Cats are bowl eligible.”  But now I realize that this is too simplistic.  The fact is, that when it comes down to it, this is a team that is lead by defense; and the defense is finally coming into that role.  And winning with defense is winning ugly sometimes; and often that means close games against inferior teams.

I know that there are fans out there who are upset about the margin of victory in this game.  This is hard for me to understand – winning on the road in the Big Ten is hard enough without having to worry about running up the score.  There are still a lot of challenges ahead for this team.  But this game, especially the defensive performance, is a huge stepping-stone for the Cats return to New Years Day.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com

www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt

http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com