First off, EVR apologizes for going AWOL this week. The post-Army hangover was too great on Sunday morning and EVR’s “real job” has been getting in the way. Even EVR needs a bye week.
NU lost to Army. There is not much more to say about it. Those who watched know how it happened; those who did not watch – well those fans are probably better off. There are three things that can be said about losing to Army. The first is that Northwestern should not lose to Army. Period. End of discussion.
But it is also very little to get upset about losing to Army or any service academy. The service academies represent everything that is good and pure about college football. And if the Cats are going to lose to any team, Army is one of the few that are tolerable.
Finally, the one thing that gives Cat fans solace about losing to Army is the very thing that frustrates them the most. And that is this: this was an upset; NU is better than Army; NU will make a bowl; NU will beat someone that it should not to make up for it. Why do Cat fans feel that way? Well, that is the frustrating part… because NU has seen this all too often…
’06 New Hampshire; ’07 Duke; ’08 Indiana; ’09 Syracuse; ’10 Purdue; ’11 Army. Every year of the Fitz tenure, NU has suffered a devastating upset. Cat fans have grown to expect it; and those with negative inclinations even picked Army as the trap game of the 2011 season. In attempting to process the Army loss, EVR has done some research. And while this will not necessarily demonstrate why NU has a tendency to lose these games; the goal is to show how it happens.
The easy way to describe this trend is that NU comes into these upset games overconfident. And there is some merit to this. NU is an incredible 18-1 going into the 6 Fitz upsets. There is some indication of looking ahead as well. NU’s opponents after the upsets included Ohio State (’07), a red hot Minnesota (’08), a decent Minnesota (’09), an undefeated Michigan State (’10), and a likely undefeated Illinois this year.
But there is far more similarity to those losses than meets the eye. Look at the Duke, Indiana, Purdue and Army losses. The New Hampshire game is Fitz’s second career game and had a freshman at quarterback – not to mention that New Hampshire was probably actually better than NU that year. The Syracuse game showed us one of the best passing performances in NU history – but for the brutal Kafka interception that set up the game winning field goal. NU also had a secondary that was decimated by injuries, so it is a bit of an outlier.
Here is a look at the four remaining upset games, as compared the NU’s season stats. Note that the season stats are the game-by-game average with the upset game removed:
| NU Pts. | NU Pts. | Opp Pts. | Opp. Pts. | NU off yds. | NU off yds. | Opp. Off yds. | Opp. Off yds | ||||||
| Year | Game | Game | Season Avg. | Diff | Game | Season Avg. | Diff | Game | Season Avg. | Diff | Game | Season Avg. | Diff |
| 2007 | Duke | 14 | 25 | (11) | 20 | 28 | (8) | 506 | 386 | 120 | 309 | 370 | (61) |
| 2008 | Indiana | 19 | 25 | (6) | 21 | 20 | 1 | 316 | 362 | (46) | 319 | 342 | (23) |
| 2010 | Purdue | 17 | 27 | (10) | 20 | 30 | (10) | 389 | 391 | (2) | 279 | 438 | (159) |
| 2011 | Army | 14 | 33 | (19) | 21 | 19 | 2 | 309 | 430 | (121) | 387 | 398 | (11) |
Meanwhile, in the four subject games, the defense plays to its average, if not significantly better than normal. In the Purdue game last year, the defense played one of its best statistical games of the season, but it was not enough.
Another common theme is the setting of the game. Each of these losses – and you can throw back in the Syracuse game for this one – was either on the road or at night. In other words, it was a setting that is out of the Wildcat comfort zone.
So how does this happen? Stop if you have heard this one before. NU comes out and the offense sputters. Underdog gets an early score. Underdog’s defense makes a few nice stops and gains some confidence. Halftime is uncomfortably close. As the game wears on NU starts to doubt itself on offense, while its defense begins to tire. While the defense is playing well, it can no longer withstand the disadvantage in the time of possession. Underdog gets a late score. NU has a chance to win or tie at the end, but the highly confident and rested underdog defense makes the final stand.
Granted, not every upset happens this way. But it certainly is closer to the rule than the exception. Just look at the low scores in NU upsets over the years (defined as unranked NU teams over ranked opponents):
· 2010: NU 21 Iowa 17
· 2009: NU 17 Iowa 10
· 2008: NU 24 Minnesota 17
· 2004: NU 13 Purdue 10
· 2003: NU 16 Wisconsin 7
· 1997: NU 19 Michigan State 17
· 1995: NU 17 Notre Dame 15
· 1993: NU 22 Boston College 21
· 1991: NU 17 Illinois 11
While NU has certainly had some higher scoring upsets, the low-scoring affair is generally the more likely recipe. As can be seen by the stats above, the underdog has a much better chance when their defense is playing well. On the other hand, generally, when the teams are locked in a shootout, the favored team will prevail. College football is a game of emotion and defense is the more emotional side of the ball. If your defense makes some stops early, the offense will eventually score a few points and keep you in the game. That is when upsets happen.
Why make this analysis? Well look at how it applied to the Army game.
While the defense gave up 381 yards rushing, it only gave up 6 yards passing. Army was the best offense that NU has seen in their three games and they held them to their lowest output of the year. The 387 was still 50 yards less than the average given up by the Cats in 2010; and the 381 rushing by Army was lower than its average in its first two games. So while it is easy to blame the defense, the statistics suggest otherwise.
That said, the NU defense failed to make big stops when they needed to and the most telling stat of the game was Army’s 3-3 on fourth down. Army scored on its first drive of the game – but NU made some adjustments and stopped them the rest of the half. Army made halftime adjustments, and scored on their first drive of the second half. The NU defense then made four consecutive stops including three drives which totaled nine plays. But in the end, the NU defense was tired and worn down from the option attack. After a 14-play drive ended in a missed field goal, NU scored on a quick three-play drive. The Wildcat defense was gassed and gave up the winning score.
But it was the offense that was the scapegoat in this game. NU had four three-and-outs including three drives which resulted in negative yardage. They had three consecutive three-and-outs in the second half. Prior to the quick touchdown drive late in the game, NU had zero yards of total offense in the second half. NU’s failure to convert on the first drive of the game and then again on the field goal attempt at the half was the beginning of the end. These are the things that give an underdog defense its confidence.
One final note: Saturday marked the first time that Fitz removed a QB for strictly performance-based reasons. Certainly he has sat a starter late during a blowout – and the two-QB system during the end of 2010 was by design. But for the first time in six years, Fitz made the election to go with someone else while the game was still in doubt. How this plays in the mind of Kain Colter moving forward will be interesting to watch in the next few years. With all due respect to Kain, here’s hoping that we do not see him again this season – with the return of Dan Persa on the horizon.
So with no NU game this weekend, let’s look at the Big Ten Power Rankings.
Legends Division
1 Nebraska (+1): Nebraska gets the top spot back by default. While the game ended in a convincing win, Nebraska again looked mediocre in the first half. They may have some early issues again when they go to Laramie to face an undefeated Wyoming team. While Nebraska will likely win, their confidence will continue to be shaken, which is not a good preparation for the Wisconsin showdown.
2 Michigan State (-1): Michigan State managed to force a few turnovers in South Bend and still was destroyed by the Irish. The young Spartan defense was exposed by the Notre Dame skill players. While ND sports a better offensive cast than most of the Big Ten; MSU still has some defensive concerns going into conference play.
T-3 Northwestern: If history repeats itself, the Cats will recover from their upset loss and prove that it was just that, an upset. Dan Persa should return and the Cats should still be an outside contender for the Legends crown. On the other hand, they had an off week after the Purdue loss last year and still lost to MSU; so the extra week before Illinois may be a non sequitur.
T-3 Michigan (+1): Michigan moves up as one of the four undefeated teams in the conference; although they probably do not deserve the promotion. Blue’s next test is against NU, so EVR will let them decide it on the field. They do have a tough test against Brady Hoke’s former team, San Diego State, on Saturday.
5 Iowa: Iowa needed a miracle to avoid losing their season against Pitt. And this was clearly a game where Pitt simply lost their focus. Iowa needs a lot of work to get back to where they expect to finish and until then will be secured in the 5 spot.
6 Minnesota: EVR was happy to see the Gophers pick up their first win after two heartbreaking losses. Minnesota is probably better than Indiana and Purdue, but without playing IU, that still only results in a 3-9 season.
Leaders Division
1 Wisconsin: Wisconsin is sleepwalking through their non-conference schedule. They should and will be favored against Nebraska on October 1. With chinks in the armor on the Legends side, November 19 at Illinois could be the Big Ten game of the year.
2 Illinois: Very impressive. Illinois passed their first true test with flying colors; issuing a minor upset against a ranked Arizona State 17-14 (see analysis above). Ron Zook has these guys playing very well. They are the second best team in the division, they avoid Nebraska and Michigan State, and they get Wisconsin and Ohio State at home. Their toughest road game is Penn State. The Illini could win 10 games easily.
3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes played one of their most pathetic games of the last ten years Saturday night. Even the 2008 loss to USC was a loss to a clearly better team. Miami is a good-but-not-great team made to look like world-beaters by a Buckeye team on the brink. Colorado has looked competent; but it is a must win as the Buckeyes follow the Buffs with Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin – in that order. Brutal.
4 Penn State: For the second year in a row, Penn State almost lost to Temple. But they are still better than Purdue and IU. PSU will get well with a handful of winnable games which they must sweep if they want to be assured of a season above .500.
T-5 Purdue: Purdue and IU get back their T-5 position after a pair of solid wins over inferior opponents. Purdue was very efficient on offense and looked like a pretty good team -- even against an inferior opponent. They get two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame, when reality will set back in.
T-5 Indiana: The Hoosiers face North Texas in week four – which is their last legitimate chance to win a game until the Purdue game at the end of the season. Kevin Wilson will do some nice things once Gunner Kiel gets on campus. But he will need to wait until next year to start that project.
Go Cats!
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