Saturday, October 1, 2011, 11:00 CST (ESPN2)
Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois
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| The Land of Lincoln Trophy hailtopurple.com |
Northwestern looks to bounce back from a stinging defeat after a bye week which saw some key players return to the field at full strength. Illinois looks to continue its best start since 1961 – before Dick Butkus was on campus. This rivalry game has taken on a new flavor this season as both players and coaches have spoken openly about competing to be Chicago’s Big Ten Team. It is the 105th meeting between the schools. Northwestern is 10-6 against Illinois in the Expect Victory Era. Illinois won the most recent meeting in 2010 in the Wrigley Field game. Northwestern won the last game in Champaign.
Illinois and Northwestern both bring strong running games to the field on Saturday as both are averaging more than 200 yards rushing per game and are in the top 25 nationally in that category. Illinois has a softer secondary but a fierce pass rush – which will create an interesting matchup for senior quarterback Dan Persa, who returns to the field for the first time in 2011. Northwestern also returns three key defenders, but will it be enough to stop the dynamic Illinois offense?
Injury Report
Northwestern’s injury report is as positive as it has been all year. DT Brian Arnfelt (Foot), S Jared Carpenter (Wrist), and WR Tony Jones (Leg) are all out – but none of them are starters. On the other hand, Dan Persa, Adonis Smith, Jack DiNardo, Colin Ellis, and David Arnold will all play for NU after missing at least one game each. This is as healthy as the Cats are going to get.
On the Illini side, their injury report is pretty clean as well. Reserve fullback Zach Becker broke his leg against South Dakota State and will miss the season. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase banged up his shoulder against Arizona State but that did not limit him at all last week. The only major loss for Illinois is starting left tackle Corey Lewis, who blew his ACL in February and is missing the entire season. Otherwise, both of these teams will be pretty much at full strength – which is how fans should want to see the game played.
Weather Report: Tomorrow will be a cool day, perfect for October football. Champaign is expected to have a kickoff temperature of 54 with a high of 59. There is a slight chance of rain at 10%, but otherwise mostly sunny. Weather will not be an issue in this game. Check with the Weather Channel for updates on the weather.
Inside the Matchups
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| Dan Persa espn.com |
It is no secret that the key to the Wildcat offense will be the return of Dan Persa. After the blowout in Wrigley Field, Cat fans were quick to point out that Persa was unable to control the ball for NU; while Illinois fans were quicker to point out that not even Dan Persa could have tackled Mikel Leshoure. There is no question that the NU offense will be a more efficient attack with Persa at the helm. But that is not to say that the offense did not stall under him at times in 2010. The team will have to quickly adjust to having its #1 guy behind center if they want to stay in this game.
If he is given time to throw, Dan should have the chance to move the ball through the air. Last year, of course, he set a Big Ten record and was the nation’s leader in completion percentage. Illinois defensive backs are inexperienced and are having some growing pains. Only cornerback Tavon Wilson had any significant starting experience before 2011. This defense has given up 231 yards passing per game and more than 250 yards in three of its four games. Illinois does have six interceptions on the year, but only two by defensive backs.
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| Michael Buchanan cstv.com |
But Illinois’ strength on defense is the pass rush. They have 14 sacks in only four games including four by junior DE Whitney Mercilus and 3.5 by junior “bandit” Michael Buchanan. They will put a lot of pressure on Patrick Ward and Al Netter. NU has given up six sacks, but gave up three to Army. Giving Persa time to throw will be integral to the Cats ability to move the ball.
When Dan does throw, he will have his All-Conference WR Jeremy Ebert raring to go. Ebert scored his first two touchdowns of the year last week and continues to pose a threat with his precision routes. It is likely that he will see coverage by Wilson, who actually has a slight size advantage over Ebert. But look to see Persa go to Ebert if he is found matched up against Terry Hawthorne or Justin Green. Rashad Lawrence and Christian Jones may see some more touches this week as well. Illinois DB’s are unusually large and NU needs to take advantage of the size advantage that these two present. Of course Drake Dunsmore will be the primary Safety valve. And Persa will look to see him lined up against sophomore linebacker Jonathan Brown for the mismatch.
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| Mike Trumpy bleacherreport.com |
NU’s running game is both improved and healthy for the Illinois game. This squad has averaged over 200 yards per game led by Mike Trumpy and quarterback Kain Colter. Saturday will also see the return of Adonis Smith, who will add a dimension to the attack. Colter will probably still see the ball in some capacity, even if not by direct snap. But Illinois’ run defense is one of the best in the nation, giving up only 56 yards per game. It is led by senior linebackers Ian Thomas and Trulon Henry. NU will need at least 100 yards on the game to keep this competitive because, while they should be able to move the ball through the air, the Cats will need to mix it up a bit – not only to keep the defense honest but to tame the Illini pass rush and keep Persa upright.
When Illinois has the ball they bring with them the 16th most efficient passer in the nation with Scheelhaase. He not only averages 212 yards per air through the air, but has also gained 224 yards on the ground through four games. This is the first true dual-threat quarterback that the Cats will see this year – and they will need to get used to it with Denard Robinson and Taylor Martinez on the schedule. NU’s ability to contain Scheelhaase will be telling as to how they will perform during the season. NU’s pass defense has shown some inconsistency, giving up 351 yards against BC and two big pass plays against EIU – but then only 6 yards passing against Army.
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| Leshoure finds another hole redeyechicago.com |
But honestly, the reason for only six yards against Army was the run defense, which Illinois knows a lot about. But there are some differences between the NU run defense in Wrigley and the one at West Point. At Wrigley, NU was over pursuing and out of position. This lead to a lot of missed tackles and put a great deal of pressure on the secondary to help stop the run. But in West Point, NU was actually pretty disciplined with positioning, they were just caught up in the Army cut block scheme and gave up too many yards after the first hit. If NU can complete tackles, they really should see some more success against the more traditional running attack of Illinois. The debut of highly-touted freshman linebacker Colin Ellis and the return of run-stopping safety David Arnold are expected to be a major help in this department.
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| Jason Ford heraldreview.com |
Illinois will look to give the ball not only to feature back Jason Ford, but also senior Troy Pollard and freshman Donovonn Young. The Illini have shown the propensity to give the ball to the hot hand all year and should continue to do such. If there is a weakness to the Illini running attack it is on the left side, where freshman tackle Michael Heitz replaces injury starter Corey Lewis. Inside of Heitz is senior Jack Cornell, who started at the end of last season, but is not nearly as experienced as the other side of the offensive line.
Heitz and Cornell will be charged with stopping Jack DiNardo and Vince Browne, which could be one of the key matchups for the Cats on defense. If Jack and Vince can contain their blocks in the run game, they will win this matchup, because they should be able to create some pressure in the passing game. Illinois has given up 10 sacks itself (NU has forced six in one fewer game), so it is not immune to the sack, despite its mobile quarterback. Expect Illinois to run a lot until NU can stop them, but if and when they do pass, the NU pass rush could be a key factor.
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| A.J. Jenkins fansonly.com |
Senior A.J. Jenkins is Scheelhaase’s favorite target and already has pulled in 28 catches. Jenkins is a smaller speedy receiver who can get lost in the NU zone if the Cats are not careful. Look for Jordan Mabin to attempt to shut him down. Meanwhile, Jeravin Matthews will draw the assignment on sophomore wideout Darius Millines, who is also a smaller player, and should not give Jeravin the problems he has had with the larger receivers. Illinois will look to use tight end Evan Wilson near the goal line. Wilson only has four catches, but two of them are for touchdowns.
Final Analysis
By all accounts, Illinois should win this game. But NU has the x-factor of having five players return from injury – all of whom should contribute at varying levels. The Illini have a very favorable schedule, and do not want to blow an opportunity to have a special season by losing to their rivals. Illinois was already given a scare last week, so it should come out focused for its homecoming crown.
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| Fitz will be looking for answers espn.com |
NU is going to need to get its head on straight on special teams as well, which is an area that has struggled a bit this season. NU has the ability to win this game, but it will have to avoid the penalties and mental mistakes that have plagued the team in the first three games.
Expect this to be a hard-fought game, one of the better matchups this rivalry has seen in a while. Persa will have a solid, if not spectacular game, but may not have the stamina to keep it together for 60 minutes. In the end, the Illinois run game will overpower the NU defense and it will control the fourth quarter. NU will get a final shot at it, but may fall just short. Hopefully, this is wrong, but EVR is calling it at 31-24 Illini.
Go Cats!
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