Attempting to Make Sense of the Illinois Loss

EVR hates reviewing a loss, especially a loss like this.  Part of why EVR began this blog was to have the venue to evaluate matchups and statistics and take a pragmatic look at Northwestern football.  The idea is to remove the emotion from the analysis.  But after a game like Saturday, it is difficult not to sit there and cry: “Why?  Why?!?”

Fitz: perplexed
sbnation.com

Stop if you have heard this story before.  NU loses a close game in upset fashion to a team that is vastly overmatched – primarily because of the failures of the offense.  NU has two weeks to prepare for the next game, a game against an upstart Big Ten team who is off to its best start in decades.  After a tightly fought beginning, NU’s offense comes alive – punching their opponent in the mouth and taking a three score lead.  But then the defense slowly falls apart and the loss comes in excruciating fashion.  Sound like the 2010 Michigan State game?  Or last Saturday against Illinois?

The largest frustration for Cat fans coming out of this game is that it appears that the Cats have not found an identity yet.  84% of the team’s passes have been thrown by the backup quarterback.  A team with two mobile quarterbacks is giving up more than two sacks a game.  The supposed weakness of the team – the running game – is the most consistent element.  55% of the defense’s rushing yards were given up in one game.  And the secondary was billed as the best in 15 years… well….  And what is up with the rugby style punts?

Well, EVR has taken a look at the numbers and, like it or not, it looks like the Illinois game is the best measure of what Cat fans can expect to see out of this team for the rest of the season.  And that is appropriate.  After all, Boston College has turned out to be a failure; EIU is not something to judge against; and Army brought the quirky defense and saw the offense sputter.  The Illinois results are the best way to evaluate this team and the statistics support this.

This post will take a look at the Cats in six areas of the game.  It will show why the Illinois game is the best way to demonstrate what this team is capable of.  Like it or not, what this will predict is a lot of high scoring, heart-stopping games ahead. 

True Frosh Treyvon Green
ggpht.com

Rushing Offense:  One of the biggest surprises of the year has been the effectiveness of the NU rushing attack.  NU is averaging more than 200 yards per game –170 against the three FBS opponents.  The Cats gained 171 against Illinois – exactly at the average.  Also, Persa and Colter were expected to get their rushing yards – and it really is not fair to include the sack yardage in these totals.  The running backs are averaging 4.2 yards per carry for the year – they were at 4.0 against the Illini.  These are not world beating numbers, but they are more than adequate especially against the Boston College and Illinois run defenses. Expect more of the same for the rest of the season, even without Mike Trumpy.

Passing Offense:  If there is one word to describe the NU passing game in 2011, it is efficient.  67% completions, seven touchdowns, one interception (in the first half of the first game).  The average is 167 per game; the Cats gained 160 against Illinois.  Like it or not, the Cats offense is committed to running the ball, which will continue to allow Persa to be a surgeon with his arm when needed.  The key will be keeping the wide receivers engaged because they will need to be focused when they are called upon. 

Persa, sacked again
writingillini.com

Pass Protection:  NU was worst in the Big Ten in 2010 giving up more than three sacks per game.  Thus far in 2011 it has been only a little better.  Ten sacks in four games, including seven in the last two, is not good – especially given the mobility of Persa and Colter.  The Illinois defense sacked Persa a total of four times and after three of those, the Cats did not survive that set of downs – leading directly to three of the six NU punts.  In fact, the 10 opponents’ sacks have directly led to eight punts and a missed field goal this year.  The Illinois defense showed the Big Ten that the efficient passing game can be neutralized by an effective pass rush and the results demonstrated that it is worth the risk of Persa breaking away for a quick run.  Just like Saturday, this will continue to be the weakness of the offense.

Rushing Defense:  In 2010, the Cats game up 185 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.  In 2011, through four games, NU has allowed 175 per game, but only 4.1 yards per carry.  By removing the Army game, these numbers continue to get better – 106 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry.  And even further, by removing a 69 yard run on the first play of the season and a 76 yard run with 1:27 left in the game against EIU and the defense allows 43 yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry.  Illinois gained only 82 yards on the ground, 48 of which were on three plays.  The Cats held the Illini to 2.2 yards per carry, their best output of the season.  Granted NU was focusing on the run to make up for the Wrigley debacle; but the run defense is the most improved unit on the team, and fans should expect to see more of this, even against the better running attacks in the Big Ten.

A.J. Jenkins just scored again

Passing Defense:  Oh Boy… After the BC game, EVR expressed some concern over the passing defense after allowing 351 yards to Chase Rettig; Chase Rettig!  Against EIU, there was more worry after the Panthers managed to squeeze in a bomb of a touchdown pass through a hole that was 25 yards wide.  And, well, everyone saw what happened against Illinois.  Without the Army game, the Cats are giving up a ridiculous 9.4 yards per attempt (12.2 against Illinois) and 16.1 yards per completion (18.6 vs. Illinois.  Just by comparison, NU’s numbers are 7.8 and 11.5 respectively.  The biggest problems seems to arise when the quarterback takes the ball from under center and especially when they use play action – which was especially prevalent in the Illinois game.  This should not be much of a problem against spread teams, but may be an issue against pro-style offenses such as Iowa, MSU, and Nebraska.  It is unlikely that every game will be quite as bad as the Illinois game, but this will be an ongoing problem.

One of the four Wildcat sacks
daylife.com

Pass Rush:  The Wildcat pass rush has vastly improved in 2011 as well.  After only recording 17 sacks in 2010, NU has already made 10 in four games so far.  Part of this has been the health of the offensive line, but a large part has been the aggressiveness of the defensive play-calling.  Oddly enough, all of the sacks against Illinois were earlier in the game, while sacks against the other three opponents all occurred later in the contest.  Regardless of when the sacks occur, the team has shown that they have the talent to put pressure on the passer – which was exhibited by the four sacks of Nathan Scheelhaase.  But they will need to be able to do this during the entire game as the season goes on.

Now that the Cats are four games into the season, the raw data begins to play itself out and Cat fans can start to see where this team is headed.  If the Illini are indeed one of the better teams in the Big Ten, this comparison is a promising one.  And if the Cats continue to play to their statistical averages, they should be able to pull out some nice victories.  But on the other hand, the games will not be without their share of drama and fireworks.  EVR predicts excitement for the rest of the season, beginning with a Michigan team that the Cats really should match up well against. 

In the end, blowing an 18-point lead is hard to swallow.  There were some good things to take from the Illinois game. But the pass protection and the pass defense is going to need to improve vastly if the Cats want to make a push for a decent bowl game.

Go Cats!

Game Preview: Northwestern 2-1 (0-0) at Illinois 4-0 (0-0)

Saturday, October 1, 2011, 11:00 CST (ESPN2)

Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois

The Land of Lincoln Trophy
hailtopurple.com

Northwestern looks to bounce back from a stinging defeat after a bye week which saw some key players return to the field at full strength.  Illinois looks to continue its best start since 1961 – before Dick Butkus was on campus.  This rivalry game has taken on a new flavor this season as both players and coaches have spoken openly about competing to be Chicago’s Big Ten Team.  It is the 105^th meeting between the schools.  Northwestern is 10-6 against Illinois in the Expect Victory Era.  Illinois won the most recent meeting in 2010 in the Wrigley Field game.  Northwestern won the last game in Champaign.

Illinois and Northwestern both bring strong running games to the field on Saturday as both are averaging more than 200 yards rushing per game and are in the top 25 nationally in that category.  Illinois has a softer secondary but a fierce pass rush – which will create an interesting matchup for senior quarterback Dan Persa, who returns to the field for the first time in 2011.  Northwestern also returns three key defenders, but will it be enough to stop the dynamic Illinois offense?

Injury Report

Northwestern’s injury report is as positive as it has been all year.  DT Brian Arnfelt (Foot), S Jared Carpenter (Wrist), and WR Tony Jones (Leg) are all out – but none of them are starters.  On the other hand, Dan Persa, Adonis Smith, Jack DiNardo, Colin Ellis, and David Arnold will all play for NU after missing at least one game each.  This is as healthy as the Cats are going to get.

On the Illini side, their injury report is pretty clean as well.  Reserve fullback Zach Becker broke his leg against South Dakota State and will miss the season.  Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase banged up his shoulder against Arizona State but that did not limit him at all last week.  The only major loss for Illinois is starting left tackle Corey Lewis, who blew his ACL in February and is missing the entire season.  Otherwise, both of these teams will be pretty much at full strength – which is how fans should want to see the game played.

Weather Report: Tomorrow will be a cool day, perfect for October football.  Champaign is expected to have a kickoff temperature of 54 with a high of 59.  There is a slight chance of rain at 10%, but otherwise mostly sunny.  Weather will not be an issue in this game.  Check with the Weather Channel for updates on the weather.

Inside the Matchups

Dan Persa
espn.com

It is no secret that the key to the Wildcat offense will be the return of Dan Persa.  After the blowout in Wrigley Field, Cat fans were quick to point out that Persa was unable to control the ball for NU; while Illinois fans were quicker to point out that not even Dan Persa could have tackled Mikel Leshoure.  There is no question that the NU offense will be a more efficient attack with Persa at the helm.  But that is not to say that the offense did not stall under him at times in 2010.  The team will have to quickly adjust to having its #1 guy behind center if they want to stay in this game.

If he is given time to throw, Dan should have the chance to move the ball through the air.  Last year, of course, he set a Big Ten record and was the nation’s leader in completion percentage.  Illinois defensive backs are inexperienced and are having some growing pains.  Only cornerback Tavon Wilson had any significant starting experience before 2011.  This defense has given up 231 yards passing per game and more than 250 yards in three of its four games.  Illinois does have six interceptions on the year, but only two by defensive backs.

Michael Buchanan
cstv.com

But Illinois’ strength on defense is the pass rush.  They have 14 sacks in only four games including four by junior DE Whitney Mercilus and 3.5 by junior “bandit” Michael Buchanan.  They will put a lot of pressure on Patrick Ward and Al Netter.  NU has given up six sacks, but gave up three to Army.  Giving Persa time to throw will be integral to the Cats ability to move the ball.

When Dan does throw, he will have his All-Conference WR Jeremy Ebert raring to go.  Ebert scored his first two touchdowns of the year last week and continues to pose a threat with his precision routes.  It is likely that he will see coverage by Wilson, who actually has a slight size advantage over Ebert.  But look to see Persa go to Ebert if he is found matched up against Terry Hawthorne or Justin Green.  Rashad Lawrence and Christian Jones may see some more touches this week as well.  Illinois DB’s are unusually large and NU needs to take advantage of the size advantage that these two present.  Of course Drake Dunsmore will be the primary Safety valve.  And Persa will look to see him lined up against sophomore linebacker Jonathan Brown for the mismatch.

Mike Trumpy
bleacherreport.com

NU’s running game is both improved and healthy for the Illinois game.  This squad has averaged over 200 yards per game led by Mike Trumpy and quarterback Kain Colter.  Saturday will also see the return of Adonis Smith, who will add a dimension to the attack.  Colter will probably still see the ball in some capacity, even if not by direct snap.  But Illinois’ run defense is one of the best in the nation, giving up only 56 yards per game.  It is led by senior linebackers Ian Thomas and Trulon Henry.  NU will need at least 100 yards on the game to keep this competitive because, while they should be able to move the ball through the air, the Cats will need to mix it up a bit – not only to keep the defense honest but to tame the Illini pass rush and keep Persa upright.

When Illinois has the ball they bring with them the 16^th most efficient passer in the nation with Scheelhaase.  He not only averages 212 yards per air through the air, but has also gained 224 yards on the ground through four games.  This is the first true dual-threat quarterback that the Cats will see this year – and they will need to get used to it with Denard Robinson and Taylor Martinez on the schedule. NU’s ability to contain Scheelhaase will be telling as to how they will perform during the season.  NU’s pass defense has shown some inconsistency, giving up 351 yards against BC and two big pass plays against EIU – but then only 6 yards passing against Army. 

Leshoure finds another hole
redeyechicago.com

But honestly, the reason for only six yards against Army was the run defense, which Illinois knows a lot about.  But there are some differences between the NU run defense in Wrigley and the one at West Point.  At Wrigley, NU was over pursuing and out of position.  This lead to a lot of missed tackles and put a great deal of pressure on the secondary to help stop the run.  But in West Point, NU was actually pretty disciplined with positioning, they were just caught up in the Army cut block scheme and gave up too many yards after the first hit.  If NU can complete tackles, they really should see some more success against the more traditional running attack of Illinois.  The debut of highly-touted freshman linebacker Colin Ellis and the return of run-stopping safety David Arnold are expected to be a major help in this department.

Jason Ford
heraldreview.com

Illinois will look to give the ball not only to feature back Jason Ford, but also senior Troy Pollard and freshman Donovonn Young.  The Illini have shown the propensity to give the ball to the hot hand all year and should continue to do such.  If there is a weakness to the Illini running attack it is on the left side, where freshman tackle Michael Heitz replaces injury starter Corey Lewis.  Inside of Heitz is senior Jack Cornell, who started at the end of last season, but is not nearly as experienced as the other side of the offensive line.

Heitz and Cornell will be charged with stopping Jack DiNardo and Vince Browne, which could be one of the key matchups for the Cats on defense.  If Jack and Vince can contain their blocks in the run game, they will win this matchup, because they should be able to create some pressure in the passing game.  Illinois has given up 10 sacks itself (NU has forced six in one fewer game), so it is not immune to the sack, despite its mobile quarterback.  Expect Illinois to run a lot until NU can stop them, but if and when they do pass, the NU pass rush could be a key factor.

A.J. Jenkins
fansonly.com

Senior A.J. Jenkins is Scheelhaase’s favorite target and already has pulled in 28 catches.  Jenkins is a smaller speedy receiver who can get lost in the NU zone if the Cats are not careful.  Look for Jordan Mabin to attempt to shut him down.  Meanwhile, Jeravin Matthews will draw the assignment on sophomore wideout Darius Millines, who is also a smaller player, and should not give Jeravin the problems he has had with the larger receivers.  Illinois will look to use tight end Evan Wilson near the goal line.  Wilson only has four catches, but two of them are for touchdowns.

Final Analysis

By all accounts, Illinois should win this game.  But NU has the x-factor of having five players return from injury – all of whom should contribute at varying levels.  The Illini have a very favorable schedule, and do not want to blow an opportunity to have a special season by losing to their rivals. Illinois was already given a scare last week, so it should come out focused for its homecoming crown.

Fitz will be looking for answers
espn.com

NU is going to need to get its head on straight on special teams as well, which is an area that has struggled a bit this season.  NU has the ability to win this game, but it will have to avoid the penalties and mental mistakes that have plagued the team in the first three games.

Expect this to be a hard-fought game, one of the better matchups this rivalry has seen in a while.  Persa will have a solid, if not spectacular game, but may not have the stamina to keep it together for 60 minutes.  In the end, the Illinois run game will overpower the NU defense and it will control the fourth quarter.  NU will get a final shot at it, but may fall just short.  Hopefully, this is wrong, but EVR is calling it at 31-24 Illini.

Go Cats!

Positive Injury Report; the Battle for Chicago; and Big Ten Power Rankings

The Northwestern Wildcats made good use of their bye week by getting themselves well.  Four Wildcat players find themselves back on the two-deep depth chart for Illinois, and a fifth may play Saturday as well.  The Cats will have their work cut out for them in another road test, so this could not have come at a better time.

Chicagonow.com

The biggest news is, of course, Dan Persa.  Persa should be the difference maker who will electrify an offense that was stagnant at best against Army.  The only concerns with Dan will be adjusting to the speed of play and keeping him from being too excited about the game.  Fitz will not commit that Dan will take all of the snaps, but the presumption is that if he feels well enough, he will.  But expect Colter to see the ball in some way, as his speed is too good to not utilize.

One of the more exciting returns is not a return at all but the Wildcat debut of redshirt freshman linebacker Collin Ellis.  Ellis has been highly touted by the coaching staff and should make an impact on the defense.  He will begin by backing up Ben Johnson, but the coaches expect Ellis to get into the game.  Anticipate seeing Ellis as the starter by homecoming.

Jack DiNardo will be back in his starting role on the defensive line.  After a strong effort against Boston College, Jack sat out the last two games.  Against the dynamic offense of the Illini, DiNardo’s stability in the middle will be necessary.

David Arnold will return but will not regain his starting spot as Ibraheim Campbell appears to won the job outright.  But Arnold will certainly see playing time, especially in running situations.  Arnold is a big hitter and will be needed to stop the Illini backs from breaking the big one.

Bostonherald.com

Finally, there is no official word yet on Adonis Smith.  He is not listed on the two-deep, but he may simply be the third guy behind Trumpy and Schmidt.  Smith is still the best back at grinding out the extra yard in a pack and would have been helpful in the failed third-and-short situations against Army.

Both the coaches and the players have ratcheted up the Northwestern-Illinois rivalry a bit this week.  It seems as though the Illini have taken offense to the Wildcats claim of being “Chicago’s Big Ten Team.”  It also seems that the Wildcats are pretty serious about that claim.  The Chicago media has had a field day with this war of words and this is perhaps exactly what this rivalry needs.  Many of the games over the last 10 years have been blowouts, and the closer games generally were comebacks that fell short – rather than outright barnburners.  Perhaps the early season matchup is the key – the last three NU-Illinois games played in October have all been decided by three points.

Most fans look at a team like Northwestern, look at the offense’s performance against Army, and they immediately blame the playcalling.  The presumption is that Northwestern is a bigger, faster, and stronger team, and that they should have no problems moving the ball against Army.  But the average fan does not know a thing about playcalling, it is just the scapegoat. 

Now, EVR does not pretend to know anything about offensive playcalling either, but after reviewing the play chart for the Army game, a few interesting things popped out.

OC Mick McCall
cstv.com

NU ran 23 plays on first down against Army.  They called 8 runs and 15 passes, although two of the runs were Colter runs, which may have been initially called as passes.  There is no way of knowing without re-watching the entire game, but assume for sake of argument that they were designed runs.  In the first half, the Cats passed on first down and ran on the following second down five times – and converted (eventually) the first down each time.  The Cats also threw a first down pass complete for a first down.  This means that six of the ten first half first downs were the result of passing on first down, and primarily the result of running on the following second down.

The statistics very clearly support this.  For the game, NU was 9-14 with one sack passing the ball on first down, for an average of 7.8 yards per play call.  This leaves the cats with a second and short (less than 3) – where the Cats averaged 3.7 yards per carry.  Even when the pass was incomplete, the Cats averaged 14 yards per carry on 2^nd and long (7-10 yards).  On the other hand, passing in those situations netted a combined 2-6 with a sack.  Clearly, the pass on first / run on second plan was having success.

But in the second half, the Cats passed on first down and ran on the following second down only once.  It was not successful primarily because of a third down penalty.  This playcalling progression was the bread and butter of the team in the first half, and was completely abandoned in the second half.  Perhaps it was panic.  But there were no situations, except for the final drive, where the score and time situation was any different than the first half.  The Cats spend most of the game down by 7 points; the game plan should have been consistent throughout.

Now whether or not the pass-run combo will work against Illinois, no one knows.  But hopefully the coaching staff will look to their own charts and see what is working for them rather than continuing to try to reinvent the wheel.

Legends Division

1 Nebraska: Nebraska escaped its trap game on Saturday with a solid victory in Laramie against Wyoming.  After two sluggish performances, the Huskers showed a more dominant face, which they will need moving forward to the Big Ten season.  While Nebraska and Wisconsin may not be the sexiest matchup of the weekend, it is certainly the most important – and may not be the only matchup of the year.

2 Michigan State: Michigan State got back in the saddle on Saturday with a commanding 47-7 win over Central Michigan.  The young defense will have an interesting matchup against the youngest quarterback in the conference when they face the Buckeyes on Saturday.  Given that this is a down year for OSU, this is Sparty’s chance to prove that he belongs in the upper tier of the conference.

3 Michigan: There was no intent to move Michigan up to 3 until after they played Northwestern on the field, but the defensive performance against San Diego State could not be ignored.  Yes, the Big Ten opponents will provide more competition on both sides of the ball; and Denard Robinson will need to get better at passing the ball (two more picks against SDSU).  But Blue has passed the first tests of the year and earned this spot.

4 Northwestern (-1): A statistic posted on Twitter over the weekend which said that NU’s winning percentage is a full .200 higher in years when they are “upset” during the season than years when they are not – since 1995.  While this is certainly testament to the annual Wildcat upset, it is also demonstrative of NU’s resolve.  The Cats get an army (sorry) of players back for the Illinois game and had two weeks to prepare; so they may be primed for an upset.

5 Iowa: Iowa was impressive against a relatively unimpressive team.  But this is a team that will still have problems.  After a bye week the Hawkeyes have Penn State and Northwestern, so if they want to prove that they belong in the top half of the league, they will have their chance.

6 Minnesota: After an embarrassing loss to North Dakota State, the Gophers are staring down the potential for a 1-11 season – and they do not play Indiana and have Purdue on the road.  With a coach that is going through some health problems right now, this could be a dark time for the Minnesota program.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: Madison hosts Gameday on Saturday as the Badgers welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten.  Wisconsin is more talented on both sides of the ball and their dynamic offense should be able to put up some points against a Nebraska defense that has been weaker than expected.  The Badgers have yet to show their weakness, if they have one.  Stopping Taylor Martinez might just be the test to see if Bucky belongs in the national title discussion.

2 Illinois: The Illini narrowly avoided a choke with a 23-20 victory over Western Michigan.  The secondary was thrashed for over 300 yards passing, which will perk the ears of offensive coordinators across the conference.  Illinois is the deserved favorites this weekend, but if Dan Persa can get things going through the air, it could be a dogfight to determine Chicago’s Big Ten Team.

3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes won handily against Colorado last weekend and are now bracing for a near impossible stretch against the conference’s best four teams.  MSU is their only opponent of the bunch where they will be without the Tattoo Four.  If they can sneak out a win Saturday, OSU will be back in the discussion.

4 Penn State: Penn State for the first time all season looked like a Penn State team as they rolled over an Eastern Illinois team who was simply overmatched.  Penn State still insists on alternating quarterbacks, which will eventually be their undoing.  The Lions have a chance to get hot with games against Indiana, Iowa and Purdue upcoming.

5 Purdue: The Boilers had the week off and now host Notre Dame on Saturday.  If Purdue can force turnovers, they have a chance.  But Notre Dame is a supremely more talented team, and this could finally be the blowout that Irish fans are thirsting for.  Either way, Purdue seems like it may rise above Indiana and Minnesota at the bottom of the Big Ten.

6 Indiana (-1): Like Minnesota, the Hoosiers are facing a 1-11 season now that they have lost to both Ball State and North Texas.  North Texas was actually up 24-0 in the fourth quarter before a fierce IU comeback fell short.  Bottom line, this is a bad team.

Go Cats!

Cats – Illini prepare for Historic Wrigley Matchup – and Big Ten Rankings

The corner of Sheffield and Addison should have a carnival feel on Saturday, that which is normally reserved for a January Bowl game.  Here is your quick primer on preparing for Saturday, along with an Evan Watkins update and some other news and notes.

Photo Credit: Chicagotribune.com

First, if you have not seen the pictures of Wrigley Field decked out in purple, read no further and go to NuSports.com now.  But come back and read the rest of course.  Yes, the famous red Cubs marquis is painted purple.  Yes, there are dozens of purple and white ‘N’ flags donning the stadium.  And yes, there is a giant “N-Wildcat” painted just about where the right field grass would meet the infield dirt.  If these pictures do not get you excited for Saturday, nothing will.

The dimensions of the friendly confines have taken some hits this week as the media has questioned the safety of two points on the field.  First off, there is a section of the east end zone which is literally 18 inches from the right field wall.  The Cubs have installed what appears to be a six-inch pad, painted with ivy and the Allstate logo.  But to give you a visual idea of the space, the goalposts have been attached directly to the outfield wall.  I can certainly understand the safety concern, but I do not know that it will affect the game as much as it is being discussed.  There appears to be only about 5 feet on either side of the, nonexistent, goalpost which is encroached by the wall – before the wall tapers back on either side.  Players are already trained to avoid the goalpost itself; this is just a slightly larger target.  According to Teddy Greenstein with the Trib., both coaches signed off on these dimensions prior to agreeing to play the game.

In my mind the larger concern is the northwest corner of the west endzone.  There is a small section of field box seats between what would be the Cubs dugout and their bullpen.  The seats are protected by the famous brick wall, and thus immovable.  A tight corner route to that corner could take a receivers legs out, quickly, if he is not careful.  At least the right field wall is high enough to be seen.

Kudos to the Northwestern Athletic Department for doing this game justice.  This could have very easily been just a game at Wrigley Field.  But the AD has truly embraced the concept of “Chicago’s Big Ten team” and turned this into a major event – complete with Wildcat Alley on Sheffield beginning at 10:00 a.m. and not closing until 10:00 p.m. 

Fortunately, thanks to a rather bland college football weekend, and apparently NU’s win over Iowa, ESPN is bringing its mobile pregame show to the McDonalds parking lot across from the Stadium.  The set will open to students at 5:00 a.m. and alumni at 5:30 – before later opening to fans in general.  The show will begin on ESPNU at 8:00 CST, before being picked up by ESPN at 9:00 CST.  Get to the set by 10:45 to get the final breakdown of the Land of Lincoln game – and see if Lee Corso dons Willie’s head piece.  While there are obviously dozens of game for the Worldwide Leader to talk about on Saturday, this is a great opportunity for NU to be broadcast to the entire country for three hours.

NuSports.com has a special page of FAQs updated for this week – including information on GameDay.  Also, the Trib has a great news page on their website dedicated to the game.  Mother Nature looks like she is going to cooperate on Saturday, with cold, but dry weather.  So make sure to make your way out to Wrigleyville on Saturday – even if you do not have a ticket.

Interestingly there are competing views on whether this is truly a once-in-a-lifetime event.  The Cubs have made it clear that they would like to open the stadium for NU and Illinois to host their game there annually (this would be impossible in 2011 because the game is scheduled in October, when the Cubs, conceivably, could still be playing).  NU has said publically that they intend for this to be a one-time deal.  And Illinois has reported that they do not intend to give up a home game to travel to Chicago.  But I am certain that if the Cubs could get a permanent sponsor and some guaranteed money, the schools might reconsider this position.  In case you are wondering, while technically, all of the tickets were sold through the NU ticket office (except for the typical allotment to the visiting team), reports are that the fan split should be around 70-30, maybe 65-35 in favor of NU.

NU is going to learn a lot about its long-term future on Saturday as Evan Watkins, the quarterback of the 2012-2013 Wildcats is suddenly the QB of today.  Teddy Greenstein reports that Watkins does not lack confidence.  Having too much confidence can be a good thing and a bad thing.  It can lead to an amazing debut – for instance, C.J. Bacher’s first half against MSU in 2006 in his first start.  But it can also lead to interceptions, poor decisions, and a complete evisceration of that confidence.  I think that we can assume that Evan is going to make a few mistakes on Saturday.  It will be how he and his teammates react to those mistakes that will make the difference in the game.

It is no secret that Fitz’s Wildcats have not played well when they are either ranked or the center of attention.  This week they will be both.  Tina Akouris reports that the Cats are focused and ready to take on the challenge this Saturday.   This has been a roller coaster season for the Cats.  I think that most fans and followers of NU would admit that 8-4 and a mid-level bowl game was the height of their expectations for 2010 (it certainly was my prediction).  Now that eight wins is in the Cats sights, fans are starting to come around to the fact that while this was a season of disappointments, it is also a season of achievement and growth for the Cats.

Big Ten Power Rankings and Bowl Projections:

Once again, rankings are based on performance; Bowl Projections are based on where I think they will be in two weeks.

1 Wisconsin (Rose): The win against Indiana was a little much, but they proved their point.  Wisconsin should roll to Pasadena.

2 Ohio State (Sugar): Will face an angry Iowa team Saturday.  Here is a hint, just get their D-Line tired, you should be fine.

3 Michigan State (Capital One): Their meltdown in Iowa City was their one mistake – but still a great season for green and white.

4 Iowa (Outback): Not certain about this ranking.  Certainly belong ahead of NU on talent, but on conditioning, mental toughness and heart?

5 Northwestern (Insight): Certainly got its season back on track.  Can they continue their run of strong finishes?

6 Penn State (Gator): Barring a complete fail against Indiana, will secure this New Year’s Day slot for what might be Joe Pa’s swan song.

7 Michigan (Texas): Michigan will limp into the Bowl season with two humbling losses – a reminder of how far they still have to come.

8 Illinois (TicketCity): No one is praying for a BCS at large spot more than Illinois, who faces a trip to Detroit otherwise.

9 Purdue: Played well against Michigan, but needs to get healthy and regroup.

10 Indiana: After two valiant efforts at home, was embarrassed by Wisconsin.

11 Minnesota: A nice-heartfelt win, and I am happy for Weber that they accomplished that.  But this program has a long way to go.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Oh the Possibilities…

I am an absolute nut for thinking through bowl-game scenarios.  I love the politicking and the money and the team comparisons.  I love thinking through where Northwestern will end up depending on specific outcomes to specific games.  Yes, I am a masochist.

But I am going to use that passion for good instead of evil today and officially begin the hype wagon for the Northwestern-Illinois game at Wrigley Field, which could have far more relevance than anyone could have expected.

To be straightforward about bowl placement, if you are not in a BCS Bowl or playing on New Year’s Day, it does not really matter where you play or who you play.  There is no discernable difference in exposure or importance between the Insight Bowl (Big Ten #5, Dec. 28) and the Texas Bowl (Big Ten #6, Dec. 29).  But playing on New Year’s Day is Big Candy.  And with five Big Ten games on NYD, it will be one big commercial for the conference and its participating schools.

Start by assuming that the “Big Four” (Wisconsin, MSU, OSU, and Iowa) do not get upset and the Ohio State-Iowa game results in a situation that puts two Big Ten teams in BCS Bowls.  There are a lot of things that need to happen to get here, many of which involve teams outside the Big Ten – but work with me here; I am trying to develop hype.

For example, this scenario might put Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and Wisconsin in the Sugar Bowl.  The Capital One Bowl and the Outback Bowl would fight over MSU and Iowa.  Which leaves the Gator Bowl as the next selection (you see where I am going with this). 

As a side note, you can imagine the scenario where an NU upset of either Iowa or Wisconsin (but not both) would actually put NU in a worse bowl game (i.e., not on NYD) by knocking the second Big Ten team out of the BCS at-large spot – oops!

Also imagine, now, that NU beats PSU in Happy Valley this weekend and Illinois beats Michigan (along with Minnesota and Fresno).  We then have the following scenarios:  Penn State is at best 6-6; so are Purdue and Michigan.  This is critical because of the rule that a team cannot be selected ahead of another team with at least two more wins.  Sadly, one of these three teams will back into a NYD appearance in the Dallas Football Classic (Big Ten #7). 

This means that NU and Illinois would be playing head-to-head for the right to play in the Gator Bowl on New Year’s Day.   The winner would finish the season 8-4; the loser, 7-5.

Now, a lot could happen between now and then.  But this scenario really requires no major upsets to occur.  If NU and Illinois take care of business this weekend, look for the hype machine to build up steam between Sunday and November 20.  In any event, this will be the first time in a long time that the NU-Illinois game carries actual relevance for both teams – as opposed to one just trying to ruin the other’s season.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com