EVR hates reviewing a loss, especially a loss like this. Part of why EVR began this blog was to have the venue to evaluate matchups and statistics and take a pragmatic look at Northwestern football. The idea is to remove the emotion from the analysis. But after a game like Saturday, it is difficult not to sit there and cry: “Why? Why?!?”
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| Fitz: perplexed sbnation.com |
Stop if you have heard this story before. NU loses a close game in upset fashion to a team that is vastly overmatched – primarily because of the failures of the offense. NU has two weeks to prepare for the next game, a game against an upstart Big Ten team who is off to its best start in decades. After a tightly fought beginning, NU’s offense comes alive – punching their opponent in the mouth and taking a three score lead. But then the defense slowly falls apart and the loss comes in excruciating fashion. Sound like the 2010 Michigan State game? Or last Saturday against Illinois?
The largest frustration for Cat fans coming out of this game is that it appears that the Cats have not found an identity yet. 84% of the team’s passes have been thrown by the backup quarterback. A team with two mobile quarterbacks is giving up more than two sacks a game. The supposed weakness of the team – the running game – is the most consistent element. 55% of the defense’s rushing yards were given up in one game. And the secondary was billed as the best in 15 years… well…. And what is up with the rugby style punts?
Well, EVR has taken a look at the numbers and, like it or not, it looks like the Illinois game is the best measure of what Cat fans can expect to see out of this team for the rest of the season. And that is appropriate. After all, Boston College has turned out to be a failure; EIU is not something to judge against; and Army brought the quirky defense and saw the offense sputter. The Illinois results are the best way to evaluate this team and the statistics support this.
This post will take a look at the Cats in six areas of the game. It will show why the Illinois game is the best way to demonstrate what this team is capable of. Like it or not, what this will predict is a lot of high scoring, heart-stopping games ahead.
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| True Frosh Treyvon Green ggpht.com |
Rushing Offense: One of the biggest surprises of the year has been the effectiveness of the NU rushing attack. NU is averaging more than 200 yards per game –170 against the three FBS opponents. The Cats gained 171 against Illinois – exactly at the average. Also, Persa and Colter were expected to get their rushing yards – and it really is not fair to include the sack yardage in these totals. The running backs are averaging 4.2 yards per carry for the year – they were at 4.0 against the Illini. These are not world beating numbers, but they are more than adequate especially against the Boston College and Illinois run defenses. Expect more of the same for the rest of the season, even without Mike Trumpy.
Passing Offense: If there is one word to describe the NU passing game in 2011, it is efficient. 67% completions, seven touchdowns, one interception (in the first half of the first game). The average is 167 per game; the Cats gained 160 against Illinois. Like it or not, the Cats offense is committed to running the ball, which will continue to allow Persa to be a surgeon with his arm when needed. The key will be keeping the wide receivers engaged because they will need to be focused when they are called upon.
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| Persa, sacked again writingillini.com |
Pass Protection: NU was worst in the Big Ten in 2010 giving up more than three sacks per game. Thus far in 2011 it has been only a little better. Ten sacks in four games, including seven in the last two, is not good – especially given the mobility of Persa and Colter. The Illinois defense sacked Persa a total of four times and after three of those, the Cats did not survive that set of downs – leading directly to three of the six NU punts. In fact, the 10 opponents’ sacks have directly led to eight punts and a missed field goal this year. The Illinois defense showed the Big Ten that the efficient passing game can be neutralized by an effective pass rush and the results demonstrated that it is worth the risk of Persa breaking away for a quick run. Just like Saturday, this will continue to be the weakness of the offense.
Rushing Defense: In 2010, the Cats game up 185 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. In 2011, through four games, NU has allowed 175 per game, but only 4.1 yards per carry. By removing the Army game, these numbers continue to get better – 106 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. And even further, by removing a 69 yard run on the first play of the season and a 76 yard run with 1:27 left in the game against EIU and the defense allows 43 yards per game and 1.8 yards per carry. Illinois gained only 82 yards on the ground, 48 of which were on three plays. The Cats held the Illini to 2.2 yards per carry, their best output of the season. Granted NU was focusing on the run to make up for the Wrigley debacle; but the run defense is the most improved unit on the team, and fans should expect to see more of this, even against the better running attacks in the Big Ten.
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| A.J. Jenkins just scored again |
Passing Defense: Oh Boy… After the BC game, EVR expressed some concern over the passing defense after allowing 351 yards to Chase Rettig; Chase Rettig! Against EIU, there was more worry after the Panthers managed to squeeze in a bomb of a touchdown pass through a hole that was 25 yards wide. And, well, everyone saw what happened against Illinois. Without the Army game, the Cats are giving up a ridiculous 9.4 yards per attempt (12.2 against Illinois) and 16.1 yards per completion (18.6 vs. Illinois. Just by comparison, NU’s numbers are 7.8 and 11.5 respectively. The biggest problems seems to arise when the quarterback takes the ball from under center and especially when they use play action – which was especially prevalent in the Illinois game. This should not be much of a problem against spread teams, but may be an issue against pro-style offenses such as Iowa, MSU, and Nebraska. It is unlikely that every game will be quite as bad as the Illinois game, but this will be an ongoing problem.
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| One of the four Wildcat sacks daylife.com |
Pass Rush: The Wildcat pass rush has vastly improved in 2011 as well. After only recording 17 sacks in 2010, NU has already made 10 in four games so far. Part of this has been the health of the offensive line, but a large part has been the aggressiveness of the defensive play-calling. Oddly enough, all of the sacks against Illinois were earlier in the game, while sacks against the other three opponents all occurred later in the contest. Regardless of when the sacks occur, the team has shown that they have the talent to put pressure on the passer – which was exhibited by the four sacks of Nathan Scheelhaase. But they will need to be able to do this during the entire game as the season goes on.
Now that the Cats are four games into the season, the raw data begins to play itself out and Cat fans can start to see where this team is headed. If the Illini are indeed one of the better teams in the Big Ten, this comparison is a promising one. And if the Cats continue to play to their statistical averages, they should be able to pull out some nice victories. But on the other hand, the games will not be without their share of drama and fireworks. EVR predicts excitement for the rest of the season, beginning with a Michigan team that the Cats really should match up well against.
In the end, blowing an 18-point lead is hard to swallow. There were some good things to take from the Illinois game. But the pass protection and the pass defense is going to need to improve vastly if the Cats want to make a push for a decent bowl game.
Go Cats!
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