Positive Injury Report; the Battle for Chicago; and Big Ten Power Rankings

The Northwestern Wildcats made good use of their bye week by getting themselves well.  Four Wildcat players find themselves back on the two-deep depth chart for Illinois, and a fifth may play Saturday as well.  The Cats will have their work cut out for them in another road test, so this could not have come at a better time.

Chicagonow.com

The biggest news is, of course, Dan Persa.  Persa should be the difference maker who will electrify an offense that was stagnant at best against Army.  The only concerns with Dan will be adjusting to the speed of play and keeping him from being too excited about the game.  Fitz will not commit that Dan will take all of the snaps, but the presumption is that if he feels well enough, he will.  But expect Colter to see the ball in some way, as his speed is too good to not utilize.

One of the more exciting returns is not a return at all but the Wildcat debut of redshirt freshman linebacker Collin Ellis.  Ellis has been highly touted by the coaching staff and should make an impact on the defense.  He will begin by backing up Ben Johnson, but the coaches expect Ellis to get into the game.  Anticipate seeing Ellis as the starter by homecoming.

Jack DiNardo will be back in his starting role on the defensive line.  After a strong effort against Boston College, Jack sat out the last two games.  Against the dynamic offense of the Illini, DiNardo’s stability in the middle will be necessary.

David Arnold will return but will not regain his starting spot as Ibraheim Campbell appears to won the job outright.  But Arnold will certainly see playing time, especially in running situations.  Arnold is a big hitter and will be needed to stop the Illini backs from breaking the big one.

Bostonherald.com

Finally, there is no official word yet on Adonis Smith.  He is not listed on the two-deep, but he may simply be the third guy behind Trumpy and Schmidt.  Smith is still the best back at grinding out the extra yard in a pack and would have been helpful in the failed third-and-short situations against Army.

Both the coaches and the players have ratcheted up the Northwestern-Illinois rivalry a bit this week.  It seems as though the Illini have taken offense to the Wildcats claim of being “Chicago’s Big Ten Team.”  It also seems that the Wildcats are pretty serious about that claim.  The Chicago media has had a field day with this war of words and this is perhaps exactly what this rivalry needs.  Many of the games over the last 10 years have been blowouts, and the closer games generally were comebacks that fell short – rather than outright barnburners.  Perhaps the early season matchup is the key – the last three NU-Illinois games played in October have all been decided by three points.

Most fans look at a team like Northwestern, look at the offense’s performance against Army, and they immediately blame the playcalling.  The presumption is that Northwestern is a bigger, faster, and stronger team, and that they should have no problems moving the ball against Army.  But the average fan does not know a thing about playcalling, it is just the scapegoat. 

Now, EVR does not pretend to know anything about offensive playcalling either, but after reviewing the play chart for the Army game, a few interesting things popped out.

OC Mick McCall
cstv.com

NU ran 23 plays on first down against Army.  They called 8 runs and 15 passes, although two of the runs were Colter runs, which may have been initially called as passes.  There is no way of knowing without re-watching the entire game, but assume for sake of argument that they were designed runs.  In the first half, the Cats passed on first down and ran on the following second down five times – and converted (eventually) the first down each time.  The Cats also threw a first down pass complete for a first down.  This means that six of the ten first half first downs were the result of passing on first down, and primarily the result of running on the following second down.

The statistics very clearly support this.  For the game, NU was 9-14 with one sack passing the ball on first down, for an average of 7.8 yards per play call.  This leaves the cats with a second and short (less than 3) – where the Cats averaged 3.7 yards per carry.  Even when the pass was incomplete, the Cats averaged 14 yards per carry on 2^nd and long (7-10 yards).  On the other hand, passing in those situations netted a combined 2-6 with a sack.  Clearly, the pass on first / run on second plan was having success.

But in the second half, the Cats passed on first down and ran on the following second down only once.  It was not successful primarily because of a third down penalty.  This playcalling progression was the bread and butter of the team in the first half, and was completely abandoned in the second half.  Perhaps it was panic.  But there were no situations, except for the final drive, where the score and time situation was any different than the first half.  The Cats spend most of the game down by 7 points; the game plan should have been consistent throughout.

Now whether or not the pass-run combo will work against Illinois, no one knows.  But hopefully the coaching staff will look to their own charts and see what is working for them rather than continuing to try to reinvent the wheel.

Legends Division

1 Nebraska: Nebraska escaped its trap game on Saturday with a solid victory in Laramie against Wyoming.  After two sluggish performances, the Huskers showed a more dominant face, which they will need moving forward to the Big Ten season.  While Nebraska and Wisconsin may not be the sexiest matchup of the weekend, it is certainly the most important – and may not be the only matchup of the year.

2 Michigan State: Michigan State got back in the saddle on Saturday with a commanding 47-7 win over Central Michigan.  The young defense will have an interesting matchup against the youngest quarterback in the conference when they face the Buckeyes on Saturday.  Given that this is a down year for OSU, this is Sparty’s chance to prove that he belongs in the upper tier of the conference.

3 Michigan: There was no intent to move Michigan up to 3 until after they played Northwestern on the field, but the defensive performance against San Diego State could not be ignored.  Yes, the Big Ten opponents will provide more competition on both sides of the ball; and Denard Robinson will need to get better at passing the ball (two more picks against SDSU).  But Blue has passed the first tests of the year and earned this spot.

4 Northwestern (-1): A statistic posted on Twitter over the weekend which said that NU’s winning percentage is a full .200 higher in years when they are “upset” during the season than years when they are not – since 1995.  While this is certainly testament to the annual Wildcat upset, it is also demonstrative of NU’s resolve.  The Cats get an army (sorry) of players back for the Illinois game and had two weeks to prepare; so they may be primed for an upset.

5 Iowa: Iowa was impressive against a relatively unimpressive team.  But this is a team that will still have problems.  After a bye week the Hawkeyes have Penn State and Northwestern, so if they want to prove that they belong in the top half of the league, they will have their chance.

6 Minnesota: After an embarrassing loss to North Dakota State, the Gophers are staring down the potential for a 1-11 season – and they do not play Indiana and have Purdue on the road.  With a coach that is going through some health problems right now, this could be a dark time for the Minnesota program.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: Madison hosts Gameday on Saturday as the Badgers welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten.  Wisconsin is more talented on both sides of the ball and their dynamic offense should be able to put up some points against a Nebraska defense that has been weaker than expected.  The Badgers have yet to show their weakness, if they have one.  Stopping Taylor Martinez might just be the test to see if Bucky belongs in the national title discussion.

2 Illinois: The Illini narrowly avoided a choke with a 23-20 victory over Western Michigan.  The secondary was thrashed for over 300 yards passing, which will perk the ears of offensive coordinators across the conference.  Illinois is the deserved favorites this weekend, but if Dan Persa can get things going through the air, it could be a dogfight to determine Chicago’s Big Ten Team.

3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes won handily against Colorado last weekend and are now bracing for a near impossible stretch against the conference’s best four teams.  MSU is their only opponent of the bunch where they will be without the Tattoo Four.  If they can sneak out a win Saturday, OSU will be back in the discussion.

4 Penn State: Penn State for the first time all season looked like a Penn State team as they rolled over an Eastern Illinois team who was simply overmatched.  Penn State still insists on alternating quarterbacks, which will eventually be their undoing.  The Lions have a chance to get hot with games against Indiana, Iowa and Purdue upcoming.

5 Purdue: The Boilers had the week off and now host Notre Dame on Saturday.  If Purdue can force turnovers, they have a chance.  But Notre Dame is a supremely more talented team, and this could finally be the blowout that Irish fans are thirsting for.  Either way, Purdue seems like it may rise above Indiana and Minnesota at the bottom of the Big Ten.

6 Indiana (-1): Like Minnesota, the Hoosiers are facing a 1-11 season now that they have lost to both Ball State and North Texas.  North Texas was actually up 24-0 in the fourth quarter before a fierce IU comeback fell short.  Bottom line, this is a bad team.

Go Cats!

Revisiting Army; the Anatomy of an Upset

First off, EVR apologizes for going AWOL this week.  The post-Army hangover was too great on Sunday morning and EVR’s “real job” has been getting in the way.  Even EVR needs a bye week.

NU lost to Army.  There is not much more to say about it.  Those who watched know how it happened; those who did not watch – well those fans are probably better off.  There are three things that can be said about losing to Army.  The first is that Northwestern should not lose to Army.  Period.  End of discussion.

But it is also very little to get upset about losing to Army or any service academy.  The service academies represent everything that is good and pure about college football.  And if the Cats are going to lose to any team, Army is one of the few that are tolerable. 

Finally, the one thing that gives Cat fans solace about losing to Army is the very thing that frustrates them the most.  And that is this: this was an upset; NU is better than Army; NU will make a bowl; NU will beat someone that it should not to make up for it.  Why do Cat fans feel that way?  Well, that is the frustrating part… because NU has seen this all too often…

’06 New Hampshire; ’07 Duke; ’08 Indiana; ’09 Syracuse; ’10 Purdue; ’11 Army.  Every year of the Fitz tenure, NU has suffered a devastating upset.  Cat fans have grown to expect it; and those with negative inclinations even picked Army as the trap game of the 2011 season.  In attempting to process the Army loss, EVR has done some research.  And while this will not necessarily demonstrate why NU has a tendency to lose these games; the goal is to show how it happens.

The easy way to describe this trend is that NU comes into these upset games overconfident.  And there is some merit to this.  NU is an incredible 18-1 going into the 6 Fitz upsets.  There is some indication of looking ahead as well.  NU’s opponents after the upsets included Ohio State (’07), a red hot Minnesota (’08), a decent Minnesota (’09), an undefeated Michigan State (’10), and a likely undefeated Illinois this year.

But there is far more similarity to those losses than meets the eye.  Look at the Duke, Indiana, Purdue and Army losses.  The New Hampshire game is Fitz’s second career game and had a freshman at quarterback – not to mention that New Hampshire was probably actually better than NU that year.  The Syracuse game showed us one of the best passing performances in NU history – but for the brutal Kafka interception that set up the game winning field goal.  NU also had a secondary that was decimated by injuries, so it is a bit of an outlier.

Here is a look at the four remaining upset games, as compared the NU’s season stats.  Note that the season stats are the game-by-game average with the upset game removed:

		NU Pts.	NU Pts.		Opp Pts.	Opp. Pts.		NU off yds.	NU off yds.		Opp. Off yds.	Opp. Off yds
Year	Game	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff
2007	Duke	14	25	(11)	20	28	(8)	506	386	120	309	370	(61)
2008	Indiana	19	25	(6)	21	20	1	316	362	(46)	319	342	(23)
2010	Purdue	17	27	(10)	20	30	(10)	389	391	(2)	279	438	(159)
2011	Army	14	33	(19)	21	19	2	309	430	(121)	387	398	(11)

This explains a great deal.  NU consistently scored considerably below its season average in its upset losses.  Meanwhile its offensive yardage output was not too far off.  Thus suggests that the team is moving the ball at its normal rate, but not converting the scores.  It is clear that offensive efficiency is a clear indicator that an upset is in the cards.

Meanwhile, in the four subject games, the defense plays to its average, if not significantly better than normal.  In the Purdue game last year, the defense played one of its best statistical games of the season, but it was not enough.

Another common theme is the setting of the game.  Each of these losses – and you can throw back in the Syracuse game for this one – was either on the road or at night.  In other words, it was a setting that is out of the Wildcat comfort zone.

So how does this happen?  Stop if you have heard this one before.  NU comes out and the offense sputters.  Underdog gets an early score.  Underdog’s defense makes a few nice stops and gains some confidence.  Halftime is uncomfortably close.  As the game wears on NU starts to doubt itself on offense, while its defense begins to tire.  While the defense is playing well, it can no longer withstand the disadvantage in the time of possession.  Underdog gets a late score.  NU has a chance to win or tie at the end, but the highly confident and rested underdog defense makes the final stand.

Granted, not every upset happens this way.  But it certainly is closer to the rule than the exception.  Just look at the low scores in NU upsets over the years (defined as unranked NU teams over ranked opponents):

·         2010: NU 21 Iowa 17

·         2009: NU 17 Iowa 10

·         2008: NU 24 Minnesota 17

·         2004: NU 13 Purdue 10

·         2003: NU 16 Wisconsin 7

·         1997: NU 19 Michigan State 17

·         1995: NU 17 Notre Dame 15

·         1993: NU 22 Boston College 21

·         1991: NU 17 Illinois 11

While NU has certainly had some higher scoring upsets, the low-scoring affair is generally the more likely recipe.  As can be seen by the stats above, the underdog has a much better chance when their defense is playing well.  On the other hand, generally, when the teams are locked in a shootout, the favored team will prevail.  College football is a game of emotion and defense is the more emotional side of the ball.  If your defense makes some stops early, the offense will eventually score a few points and keep you in the game.  That is when upsets happen.

Why make this analysis?  Well look at how it applied to the Army game.

While the defense gave up 381 yards rushing, it only gave up 6 yards passing.  Army was the best offense that NU has seen in their three games and they held them to their lowest output of the year.  The 387 was still 50 yards less than the average given up by the Cats in 2010; and the 381 rushing by Army was lower than its average in its first two games.  So while it is easy to blame the defense, the statistics suggest otherwise.

That said, the NU defense failed to make big stops when they needed to and the most telling stat of the game was Army’s 3-3 on fourth down.  Army scored on its first drive of the game – but NU made some adjustments and stopped them the rest of the half.  Army made halftime adjustments, and scored on their first drive of the second half.  The NU defense then made four consecutive stops including three drives which totaled nine plays.  But in the end, the NU defense was tired and worn down from the option attack.  After a 14-play drive ended in a missed field goal, NU scored on a quick three-play drive.  The Wildcat defense was gassed and gave up the winning score.

But it was the offense that was the scapegoat in this game.  NU had four three-and-outs including three drives which resulted in negative yardage.  They had three consecutive three-and-outs in the second half.  Prior to the quick touchdown drive late in the game, NU had zero yards of total offense in the second half.  NU’s failure to convert on the first drive of the game and then again on the field goal attempt at the half was the beginning of the end.  These are the things that give an underdog defense its confidence.

One final note: Saturday marked the first time that Fitz removed a QB for strictly performance-based reasons.  Certainly he has sat a starter late during a blowout – and the two-QB system during the end of 2010 was by design.  But for the first time in six years, Fitz made the election to go with someone else while the game was still in doubt.  How this plays in the mind of Kain Colter moving forward will be interesting to watch in the next few years.  With all due respect to Kain, here’s hoping that we do not see him again this season – with the return of Dan Persa on the horizon.

So with no NU game this weekend, let’s look at the Big Ten Power Rankings.

Legends Division

1 Nebraska (+1): Nebraska gets the top spot back by default.  While the game ended in a convincing win, Nebraska again looked mediocre in the first half.  They may have some early issues again when they go to Laramie to face an undefeated Wyoming team.  While Nebraska will likely win, their confidence will continue to be shaken, which is not a good preparation for the Wisconsin showdown.

2 Michigan State (-1): Michigan State managed to force a few turnovers in South Bend and still was destroyed by the Irish.  The young Spartan defense was exposed by the Notre Dame skill players.  While ND sports a better offensive cast than most of the Big Ten; MSU still has some defensive concerns going into conference play.

T-3 Northwestern: If history repeats itself, the Cats will recover from their upset loss and prove that it was just that, an upset.  Dan Persa should return and the Cats should still be an outside contender for the Legends crown.  On the other hand, they had an off week after the Purdue loss last year and still lost to MSU; so the extra week before Illinois may be a non sequitur.

T-3 Michigan (+1): Michigan moves up as one of the four undefeated teams in the conference; although they probably do not deserve the promotion.  Blue’s next test is against NU, so EVR will let them decide it on the field.  They do have a tough test against Brady Hoke’s former team, San Diego State, on Saturday.

5 Iowa: Iowa needed a miracle to avoid losing their season against Pitt.  And this was clearly a game where Pitt simply lost their focus.  Iowa needs a lot of work to get back to where they expect to finish and until then will be secured in the 5 spot.

6 Minnesota: EVR was happy to see the Gophers pick up their first win after two heartbreaking losses.  Minnesota is probably better than Indiana and Purdue, but without playing IU, that still only results in a 3-9 season.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: Wisconsin is sleepwalking through their non-conference schedule.  They should and will be favored against Nebraska on October 1.  With chinks in the armor on the Legends side, November 19 at Illinois could be the Big Ten game of the year.

2 Illinois: Very impressive.  Illinois passed their first true test with flying colors; issuing a minor upset against a ranked Arizona State 17-14 (see analysis above).  Ron Zook has these guys playing very well.  They are the second best team in the division, they avoid Nebraska and Michigan State, and they get Wisconsin and Ohio State at home.  Their toughest road game is Penn State.  The Illini could win 10 games easily.

3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes played one of their most pathetic games of the last ten years Saturday night.  Even the 2008 loss to USC was a loss to a clearly better team.  Miami is a good-but-not-great team made to look like world-beaters by a Buckeye team on the brink.  Colorado has looked competent; but it is a must win as the Buckeyes follow the Buffs with Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin – in that order.  Brutal.

4 Penn State: For the second year in a row, Penn State almost lost to Temple.  But they are still better than Purdue and IU.  PSU will get well with a handful of winnable games which they must sweep if they want to be assured of a season above .500.

T-5 Purdue: Purdue and IU get back their T-5 position after a pair of solid wins over inferior opponents.  Purdue was very efficient on offense and looked like a pretty good team -- even against an inferior opponent.  They get two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame, when reality will set back in. 

T-5 Indiana: The Hoosiers face North Texas in week four – which is their last legitimate chance to win a game until the Purdue game at the end of the season.  Kevin Wilson will do some nice things once Gunner Kiel gets on campus.  But he will need to wait until next year to start that project.

Go Cats!

Big Ten Wednesday; News and Notes

This was actually a pretty slow news week for NU; which is why EVR waited for Thursday, in hopes that some additional tidbits would come down the pipeline.  There is no recruiting news to report so this post will focus on updating the NU injury report.

allstatesugarbowl.org

The primary story out of Evanston is that there is no timetable set for Dan Persa’s return to action for the Wildcats.  While, officially, Fitz said Tuesday that Dan is day-to-day – and even then simply said that everyone other than injured DT Jack DiNardo is day-to-day – no one believes that Persa is going to expedite the timeline to play against Eastern Illinois on Saturday.  The idea situation for Persa would be to get in a little work against Army and then have two weeks to really strengthen up for Illinois on October 1^st.  Effectively buying another month of rehab.  Whether anyone wants to risk Persa’s health for the Army game will depend on his progress in the next week.  EVR would like to see him get in to some game action in West Point to shake off the rust before going into battle in Champaign. 

Fortunately, NU fans now know that they have an efficient, productive backup in Kain Colter.  Colter did a number of things on Saturday.  He stood up in front of one of the best defensive fronts in the country and picked them apart.  He allowed Cat fans to collectively exhale, confirming that NU is going to be “OK” until Persa is back at 100%.  He also demonstrated that the Cats potentially have a very special talent on their hands for the next two years.  What he did not do is get injured.  Despite missing post-game interviews in order to get an x-ray; both Fitz and Kain confirmed that he is OK to play against EIU.  No one has disclosed what part of Colter needed the x-ray.

scout.com

As mentioned above, starting DT Jack DiNardo will miss the EIU game with a leg injury that he suffered on a play when he sacked BC quarterback Chase Rettig.  There is no indication of how serious the injury is, or how long DiNardo will be out.  Given Army’s quirky offense, it will certainly be helpful to have all hands on deck next Saturday – so hopefully Jack will heal quickly.  Sophomore Will Hampton is expected to start instead.  The team does have a lot of depth at the DT position – at least according to the coaching staff.  But injuries to starters are always an issue.

Other notes on the depth chart: Ben Johnson will start again in place of Collin Ellis.  David Arnold is listed as the starter at safety – despite earning an injury timeout after a brutal hit against BC.  There are a handful of non-starters who are listed as questionable on the injury report.  More on that tomorrow.

detnews.com

Finally, Fitz was apparently pretty disappointed with the team’s handling of the football on Saturday, both offensively and defensively.  He said that there were some opportunities to strip the ball -- which is something that the Cats worked hard at in camp.  NU also fumbled twice – although recovered both times.  He also called out the Cats’ backups for not being spirited enough on the sidelines.  Expect them to be loud and proud on Saturday.

Big Ten Power Rankings

Here is how EVR sees the Big Ten after week one:

Legends Division:

1 Nebraska: Nebraska did not show much in their week one thrashing of Chattanooga.  But Taylor Martinez looked sharp and the Huskers took care of business, so they get to keep the top spot.

2 Michigan State: Sparty was less than impressive in their Friday night debut against YSU.  While the game was never really in question, they came out flat and never really put the pedal to the floor.  They get to keep their spot for now, but they have been warned.

3 Northwestern: If quality of opponent is taken into consideration, it is hard to argue that NU was not the most impressive team in the league on Saturday.  Not only were they the only team to win on the road, but the Cats were the only team to beat a BCS opponent.

4 Iowa (-1): Iowa controlled this game from the beginning.  Not much to say here.  They lose their “T-3” status because of NU’s big win at BC.

5 Michigan: Michigan stumbled out of the gate and then got the benefit of not having to worry about a fourth quarter comeback.  In one of two lightening shortened games this weekend, Big Blue took care of business in the end.

6 Minnesota: The Gophers certainly had the opportunity to pull off a huge upset in LA, but their performance proved, unquestionably, that the power division in the Big Ten is the Legends.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: Welcome to the Big Ten Russell Wilson.  The Badgers QB pitches a near perfect game as the Badgers cruise to a victory over UNLV.

2 Ohio State: Ohio State did play one of the worst teams in the FBS.  They will be tested a little more against Toledo next week.  Either way, the Buckeyes looked solid and may not have to worry so much about losing Pryor.

3 Illinois: Illinois set the bar high with a convincing win over Arkansas State.  By avoiding Missouri, they have to potential to have a 4-0 start before Big Ten play October 1.

4 Penn State: Penn State, like Wisconsin, scored early and often.  But they were playing Indiana State.  And Indiana State is no Alabama.  Good luck guys.

5 Purdue: EVR was all ready to downgrade Purdue to the 6^th spot alone after barely beating MTSU.  This could be a long year for the Boilers.

6 Indiana (-1): The Hoosiers lost to Ball State.  Not much else needs to be said there.  The Kevin Wilson Era does not start well.

Game Preview tomorrow!!  And then GameDay.

Go Cats!

Persa Doubtful; Recruiting; Big Ten Preview

thesportsbank.net

News has come out of Evanston that Dan Persa is doubtful for Saturday’s game against Boston College.  Of course this is from collegeinjuryreport.com, which is a webpage primarily used for gambling.  EVR is guessing that the true story is being kept close to the cuff.  It will remain to be seen what sort of effect this has on the Wildcat offense.  Reports are the Kain Colter has played well but he has admitted that he does not quite have his timing down with Jeremy Ebert and Drake Dunsmore.  There are a lot of concerns among Cat fans that Colter is only going to be a running quarterback; but EVR reminds everyone that the same concern was raised with Dan Persa going into 2010 and Mike Kafka going into 2009. 

The bigger question going into BC on Saturday is the health of BC’s defensive secondary.  Safety Spenser Rositano is questionable with concussion symptoms.  Rositano was not expected to be a starter, but has risen to that role due to the recent departures of starting safeties Dominick LeGarnde and Okechukwu Okoroha.  Starting corner and Bednarik Award candidate Donnie Fletcher is doubtful with a back injury.  This is certainly going to put some holes in the BC secondary, which may make things a little easier for Colter.  Colter’s running threat may also put the reins on the BC pass rush, so he should have some time to throw.  More on this tomorrow.

chicagobreakingsports.com

Speaking of running, Mike Trumpy has gone a long way in the last two weeks of regaining the confidence in his coaches.  Fitz said that he has improved his consistency, while Mike admits that he was rusty and not mentally focused when he arrived at camp.  Fitz admits that the team is still looking for a “bell cow” running back, but that Trumpy has gone a long way to getting to that point.  Fitz also suggested that true freshman Treyvon Green could get some snaps on Saturday.  Without a lot of depth at RB, it is almost certain that one of the freshmen will be called upon to play.  Looks like Green is going to get the first shot at it.

Recruiting News

NU had a great week from a recruiting standpoint, claiming three new Wildcats for the 2012 class.  The biggest get was Greg Kuhar, a defensive Tackle from Lakewood St. Edwards in Cleveland – a school which is becoming a nice pipeline for the Cats.  Kuhar backed up his decision with a great performance in his Eagles’ 17-14 win over public school power Cleveland Glenville.  Kuhar recorded a few tackles for loss, including a sack.

NU also picked up a pair of their typical “under-the-radar” guys over the weekend; Linebacker Jaylen Prater, from Wellston, Ohio and DB Terrance Brown from Los Alamitos, CA.  Neither Jaylen nor Terrance has been reviewed by Rivals at this point in time.

There were some great performances by Wildcat 2012 commits over the weekend.  Joseph Jones, who is expected to play DB for the Cats, played a major role in his Plano (IL) team’s 49-3 rout of Lisle.  Jones caught touchdown passes of 85 and 77 yards.  He finished with 220 yards and three touchdowns on just nine touches.  DE Dean Lowry, from Rockford (IL) Boylan was a force on a defense that forced nine fumbles in a 28-0 shutout.  Finally, Chris Fitzpatrick, a linebacker who will long-snap for the Cats, helped a defense that allowed just 46 second-half yards on the way to a 42-7 win for Anderson County (KY).

Big Ten Preview

Here is how EVR sees the Big Ten shaking out this season:

Legends Division:

bleacherreport.net

1 Nebraska: The new kids on the block come in with a load of talent on defense and a highly proficient offense.  Taylor Martinez would be an all-conference contender, if he were not in the same division as Dan Persa and Denard Robinson.  Nebraska may have some growing pains and has tough games at Madison and home against the Buckeyes back-to-back.  But they have the talent to finish on a nice win streak and a 10-2 (6-2) record: BCS at-large Bowl.

2 Michigan State: Look for Michigan State to start slow this year.  The young offensive line and younger defense will need to find themselves in the first half of the season.  Early losses to Notre Dame, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Nebraska will leave the team disheartened.  But a strong finish should put them at 8-4 (5-3) and in the Outback Bowl.

T-3 Northwestern: Regardless of what happens in the BC game, the offense should be able to tread water long enough to get Persa healthy for the Illinois game on October 1^st.  NU gets a scheduling break by avoiding OSU and Wisconsin and getting three straight home games to end the season.  A final game loss to MSU will be disappointing, but it will be, overall, a relatively successful season at 8-4 (4-4) and the Gator Bowl.

T-3 Iowa: For the first time in a while, Iowa’s offense is going to have to win their games for them, as the defense will be strong and have holes to fill.  Running back and quarterback play will dictate how this team finishes.  There are no really tough back to back games on the Hawkeyes schedule – and they also avoid OSU and Wisconsin.  But they are not a solid team and will be upset by one of the bottom three.  They’ll close out the season with a loss to Nebraska on the day after Thanksgiving to finish 8-4 (4-4) and attend the Meineke Car Care Bowl on New Years’ Eve.

5 Michigan: Big Blue has seen a run of seasons where they have started fast and dropped off down the stretch.  2011 will be no different.  The team will upset Notre Dame at home and gain some confidence with a 5-0 start.  But losses at both Evanston and East Lansing, along with a brutal final stretch of Iowa – Illinois – Nebraska and Ohio State – where they will be lucky to pull off one win to finish 7-5 (3-5) and sneak into the Ticketcity Bowl.

6 Minnesota: Minnesota has one of the best unknown quarterbacks on the country, but he will get overshadowed all season by the stars of his own division. Especially since he will be getting beaten up all season.  The defense is just not strong enough to contain the levels of offense on the schedule.  They’ll finish was an upset win against Illinois, to complete a 4-8 (1-7) freshman year for Jerry Kill.

Leaders Division

espn.com

1 Wisconsin: The Badgers were the safest bet for 2011 going into the summer; and the addition of Russell Wilson seals the deal.  While he is not going to tear up the league, he is a solid proven quarterback will should fit right into the system in Madison.  The only blemish will be in Columbus, which will keep the Badgers from playing for the BCS Title. They will play Nebraska in the Big Ten Title Game; and given that Wisconsin is the known commodity, EVR will pick the Badgers – to finish them at 11-1 (7-1) and a spot in the Rose Bowl.

2 Ohio State: There was great temptation to drop the Buckeyes to number three here.  This will be a roller coaster ride of a season for the Buckeyes, who will have trouble keeping focus among all the issues. Big wins against Wisconsin and Nebraska will keep the fans happy, but losses to upset-minded Purdue and upstart Illinois will kill the momentum late.  The Bucks will finish up at 10-2 (6-2) and attend the Capital One Bowl.

3 Illinois: For the first time, Illinois seems to be on the upward slope rather than the up and down seasons that the Ron Zook era has experienced.  Nathan Scheelhaase is a future superstar and the defense is back and ready to roll.  The win against Ohio State will be a signature on the season, but late losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota will kill their outside shot at the Title game.  The Ilini finishes 9-3 (5-3) and goes to the Insight Bowl in Tempe.

4 Penn State: PSU will be in a holding pattern this year, as they have not really declined, but there is nothing on their roster to suggest that they will be that much better.  They will lose but not be embarrassed by Alabama.  After beating Northwestern in Evanston, there will be some hope for a really nice finish.  But a final stretch of Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin will destroy their longshot hopes of finishing in Indianapolis.  The Lions finish 6-6 (3-5) and play in the Pizza Bowl.

T-5 Indiana: The Hoosiers will get a coach that has seen a great deal of success on offense, and their defense last year was under-rated.  But they just do not have the talent to compete just yet.  A win against Virginia at home will give the Bloomington fans a glimpse of the future.  But then a harsh dose of the present relegates the Hoosiers to a 6-6 (2-6) record and an outside shot at a non-Big Ten Bowl Game.

T-5 Purdue: Purdue was set up to have a little more success this season until quarterback Rob Henry went down with a knee injury.  This is a program that has been decimated with injuries over the last two years and despite starting 4-1, the season will take its toll.  Look for one late upset, EVR picks OSU, but a disappointing 5-7 (2-6) year.

OK so maybe 44-4 non-conference is a little too optimistic.  But it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the Big Ten could end up with 10 bowl-eligible teams in 2011.

Game Preview tomorrow!!  And then GameDay.

Go Cats!