Speculation at QB; Questions at RB; O-Line preview; Nebraska and Rice

With only 10 days remaining until the Cats kickoff against Boston College, EVR has a lot of previewing still to go.  But first, news from camp.

Questions have arisen about Dan Persa’s health now that the media has noticed him limping on the sidelines and Kain Colter practicing with the first team offense.  Fitz added fuel to the fire by referring to Colter as “1B” in an interview.  The reality is that on the field, Persa has looked sharp – although has yet to be hit by anyone.  But the team needs to be prepared for a Boston College defense that should be a top 20 defense in the country this year – despite the recent dismissal of starting safety Okechukwu Okoroha.

Now, there are two things at play here.  First, obviously, the team needs to be prepared in the event that there is a setback in Persa’s recovery.  Colter needs to be able to step up against a big time opponent.  If the Cats can get through BC, Persa will not be as necessary in the EIU and Army games, and with the bye week after, would essentially buy another month of rehab.  But also, as the media alludes to, this is a cat and mouse game between the coaches and the media.  The fact that NU has the ability to hide their gameplan behind Persa’s injury is a major strategic advantage, and the staff and players are milking it right now.  EVR fully expects Persa to start and take most of the snaps at BC next Saturday.  Read the drama here, here, here, here, here, and here.

The running back situation has also developed into a news item out of camp, as (at least publically) Jacob Schmidt has risen to the level of starting running back.  Unfortunately, this appears to be the result of Fitz not being happy with the performance of Mike Trumpy or Adonis Smith – as opposed to the performance of Schmidt, a former walk-on.  All three continue to take snaps with the first team, in rotation.  And given the Cats’ offense, it is likely that Cat fans will see a good amount of all three regardless of who is named the starter.  In the meantime, fans are left to speculate.  It does appear that regardless of who is named the starter between Trumpy and Schmidt, that Smith may be relegated to #3 on the depth chart.  But again, this “news” may simply be the mind game being played out among Fitz, the media, and the coaching staff in Chestnut Hill.  Either way, Schmidt has a great story – check it out here and here.

The Cats closed Camp Kenosha on Saturday with its annual scrimmage and, as usual, kept 15 starters in grey shirts, off the practice field.  But the rest of the guys impressed the media who were able to see the match.  The offense was proficient and the defense put themselves in position to make plays, but dropped a few interceptions.  Venric Mark and Drew Moulton caught TD passes, and Tyris Jones ran one in. Davon Custis lead the team with 6.5 tackles and Anthony Battle recorded the games only sack.  Read Skip’s take on the scrimmage here.

Monday, the Cats took the practice field at the Great Lakes Naval base.  This is obviously a special opportunity for both the team and our troops.  Sadly, because of recruiting abuses around the country, Fitz actually needs to get a special waiver from the NCAA in order to field a practice here, as teams are only permitted one off-site practice facility.  Either way, the practice seemed to go well.  Check out the Big Ten Network’s (now, officially BTN) NU preview show tomorrow night at 8 CST.  BTN reported directly from the Great Lakes practice.  The studio crew was apparently very impressed by the NU secondary, who should be one of the strengths of the team.

The first injury report of August has been reported as David Arnold has been sitting out, although his injury, and its severity has thus far been undisclosed.  This has allowed redshirt frosh Ibraheim Campbell to get some playing time with the first team defense.  Fitz has spoken very highly of Campbell all throughout August, so this may be a great opportunity for him to step up.  Campbell will also see some time returning kicks.  EVR will keep an eye on news about Arnold’s injury.

Offensive Line

EVR admittedly does not know much about evaluating an offensive line – but for four things:  experience is important; left tackle is very important; rushing yards are good; and sacks are bad.

The NU offensive line is experienced and relatively deep.  Four starters return, all of them for their 3^rd season as a starter: All Netter, Patrick Ward, Doug Bartels, and Ben Burkett.  Burkett, despite having 39 starts at center has been moved to guard and redshirt frosh Brandon Vitabile will start the season at center.  There is depth on the interior line as Neal Deiters and Brian Mulroe have both started games at guard, along with Burkett’s ability to switch back to center.

Netter is the star of the bunch and will be primarily in charge of keeping Dan Persa upright this season.  While the “blind side” is a little less important in a shotgun offense, where the QB has a better chance of seeing the blitz, Netter will need to use his experience to protect Dan.  The Wildcat O-Line gave up way to many sacks last season, and if Dan is even the least bit immobilized by his injury, the line will need to improve significantly.

And then there is the running game.  This is a chicken-or-the-egg type question, is the running game poor because of the backs or the line.  Early last season, it was easy to blame the line as Arby Fields seemingly defaulted to bouncing it outside – leading observers to believe that there were not holes open for him.  But as Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith got more carries, they demonstrated a better propensity run inside – which suggests that the early troubles were more the result of Fields’ lack of desire to run inside.  Either way, this facet of the game will need to improve if the Cats want to be playing significant games in November.

And speaking of November…

Nebraska – November 5, 2011 – Lincoln, NE.  The Cats make their first trip to Lincoln to begin a critical stretch run.  By this time, Big Ten fans will know what they are getting out of Nebraska.  Are they a team that has benefitted over the past two years by beating a very soft Big 12 North schedule into submission?  Or are they a bona fide Big Ten title contender based on their experience in games against Oklahoma and Texas over the years.

On offense, it is all about sophomore quarterback Taylor Martinez.  Martinez was as great of a sensation as Denard Robinson during the first six weeks of last season – until both were overshadowed by the play of Cam Newton.  But Martinez will join the ever-increasing crop of dynamic Big Ten QBs (Persa, Robinson, Marquise Gray, Scheelhaase).  The face-off between he and Dan Persa will be fun to watch.   Alongside Martinez will be running back Rex Burkhead, who is smaller and less punishing than his name would suggest, this is more of a speed guy.  Martinez’ favorite target should be Brandon Kinnie, who is missing some camp with a thumb injury.

The key to the Nebraska team is the defense, however, where they have All-America Candidates at all three levels.  At defensive tackle is Jared Crick, who may be the best defensive player in the country.  At linebacker is Lavonte David, who aside from BC’s Luke Kuechly will be the best LB the Cats will see all season.  And at corner will be Afonzo Dennard, who had four interceptions last season.   This unit is all seniors and juniors and will be a tough nut to crack.  The Wildcat defense will need to play its best game in Lincoln, because points are going to be hard to come by for Persa and Co.

Rice – November 12, 2011 – Ryan Field.  While it was a non-conference game against an inferior opponent, last year’s game at Rice was probably the most complete game the Cats played on both sides of the ball (remember the Cats were dead to rights against Iowa until a 4^th quarter interception).  The offense was sharp and efficient and would have scored more but for a pair of red-zone turnovers.  And the defense played with purpose, putting up a score of their own on a Quentin Davie pick six.  As long as the Cats are healthy, we can expect more when the Owls come to Evanston.

On offense it looks like sophomore Taylor McHarque will replace Nick Fanuzzi at quarterback.  McHarque played in four games last season, and had his most impressive performance against East Carolina.  Running back will once again be Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie, who is more well-known for his youtube performances than his actual on-field production.  The offensive line does have four seniors and should provide more stability in 2011.

Defensively, the defensive line is pretty solid with returning players at each slot.  But there are holes in the linebacking corps and secondary where sophomores Cameron Nwosu (yes his last name is NW-OSU) and Paul Porras and frosh Bryce Callahan will need to grow up quick.  Rice starts the season against Texas, Purdue, and Baylor, so they will have already seen some decent offenses.  But this is team that gave up 30 points 11 times and 40 points 5 times.  So there will need to be vast improvement for this game to be competitive.

Go Cats!

http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt

johnknublog@gmail.com

Practice Begins; News and Notes; RBs; Army and Illinois

Wow, when you list all of today’s topics next to each other, it seems like a lot to cover in just one post – and it is.  But with less than four weeks until Boston College, EVR has a lot of previewing to do.  So you are going to have to bear with me here.

espn.com

First off, practice began today for the 2011 Northwestern Wildcats.  EVR will do its best to keep everyone apprised of news from Evanston and Kenosha as it comes.  Although, generally, news in summer practice means injuries – so hopefully there will be no news.  But certainly, if there are any updates to the depth chart, EVR will let you know.  Skip Myslenski does a nice piece featuring Mike Trumpy and Brian Peters and the family atmosphere as the team gets back to work in Evanston.  Otherwise, there was nothing to report from day one. 

The biggest news for the past week is the Big Ten’s announcement that it will expand to a nine-game conference schedule in 2017.  The schedule will allow three teams from each division to have five home conference games in 2017, and the others (including Northwestern) in 2018.  There is no question that this will make the competition in the league better by providing more matchups and more accurately defined division winners.  Considering division winners will be determined by overall conference record and not a team’s divisional mark, this is a positive move.  The big ten also announced that there will not be two protected rivalries, as was speculated by some.  To do so would have significantly increased the lag between playing the other four teams – e.g., NU would only play Ohio State at home every eight years.  Kudos for not going down that road.

This will, as many have noted, make it more difficult for mid-level teams to become bowl eligible.  If the NCAA maintains its 12-game schedule limit, a team will have to win, at minimum, three conference games to be bowl-eligible – currently, a 4-0 non-conference team can be bowl eligible at 2-6 (we’re talking to you Minnesota).  This is obviously a good thing as some awful 6-6 teams have made Bowl games over the years – but it is a fact that it will be more difficult. 

Also, schools like OSU, Michigan, and (this year) Illinois can say goodbye to eight-game home schedules.  With most of the big schools playing at least one away non-conference game every two years – for instance, Michigan’s Notre Dame series – they are faced with the option of moving down to seven games home schedules each year or alternative between eight and six home games.  Let’s hope that the temptation to get an eight game schedule more often does not result in a continual dumbing down of their schedules.

The USA Today Coaches Poll was released last week.  EVR has two issues with this poll.  First, is USA Today’s insistence on referring to it as the Coaches Poll, rather than the grammatically correct Coaches’ Poll.  Second is the utter ridiculousness of ranking teams any time before week four of the regular season.  A great deal of the disparity of college football could be alleviated with this simple fix.

But, for what it is worth, NU received 30 votes and is ranked “31^st”.  Other NU opponents receiving pre-season rankings include: Nebraska (11^th), Michigan State (17), Penn State (25), Iowa (30), and Michigan (34).

wgn.com

NU made a major move forward in its master plan last week by re-signing Athletic Director Jim Phillips through 2020.  The fact that his contract now matches coach Fitz’s is no coincidence as the school has now placed its officially stamp of approval on this marriage.  Prior ADs at Northwestern firmly established the school’s reputation in non-revenue sports such as Women’s Lacrosse, Swimming, Men’s Soccer, and Women’s Tennis.  With Phillips’ arrival, the school has seen an increased emphasis on bringing football as well as men’s and women’s basketball up to an appropriate level.  Having Philips on board demonstrates that the school wants this era to be more than a blip on the radar, but instead a trend into the future.

There was a little bit of recruiting news last week.  First off, four-star defensive end Faith Ekakitie has placed NU in his top five, according to Rivals.  Ekakitie is a Rivals100 ranked player.  Additionally, offensive tackle and class of 2013 offensive tackle Evan Lisle has named NU as part of his top-six, which also includes BC, Michigan, Notre Dame, OSU and UCLA.

Finally, Sun Times reporter Tina Akouris has been the busiest NU beat writer so far, with nice stories about Jordan Mabin – and the drive of the NU seniors for a memorable season – and Nebraska’s respect for the Persa-Ebert connection.  Great to see that the seniors on defense expressed so much anger for how they played down the stretch last season (now they know how the fans felt).  Also, interesting to see Nebraska’s feelings about the NU offensive threat.

Running Back Preview

Maybe the most maligned group from the 2010 Wildcats, along with the linebackers, was the running backs.  Beginning with Arby Fields’ failed attempt as the starter and finishing with Mike Trumpy’s wrist injury in the Illinois game, there was generally no good news from the running backs.  And they will be the focus of attention again in 2011 as the team will need more production from the RBs in order to take the next step offensively.

espn.com

Mike Trumpy has emerged as the starter and deservedly so.  Even though he led the team with a meager 530 yards, he did so with only 116 carries.  With a normal healthy workload of 20 carries per game, his yards per carry should put him well over 1,000 yards.  Mike shows a great ability to mix power with modest speed.  He won the job from Arby Fields primarily because of his willingness to hit the hole rather than trying to break outside.  But he also broke an 80 yard run against a pretty solid Illinois defense.  Trumpy is also one of four returning players with more than 20 receptions, so he is very versatile.  If Mike plays 12 full games at the rate he played in 2010, he should have a breakout year.  But he will need help.

The running back position is a stressful position in the spread offense.  Not only does he touch the ball more than the rest of the team, but the pace of the offense takes its toll on the guy who is forced to run the ball, run a route, or block on every play.  Thus the importance of Adonis Smith.  Adonis lost his red-shirt midway through 2010, and immediately demonstrated his talent.  Adonis actually had a higher yards per carry than Trumpy with 4.8.  His tall skinny frame is deceptive as he is much stronger than he appears, yet is a touch slower than we would expect.  Big Ten defenders who are lazy and try to tackle him high will not be rewarded.  Look for Adonis to play a major role as a compliment to Trumpy.

Finally, Cat fans will again see a lot of work from Senior Jacob Schmidt.  Jacob missed some time last year due to an ankle injury.  We should see Jacob quite a bit on long yardage situations as his biggest asset is as a blocker and a receiver in the flat.

The transfer of Arby Fields will be felt the most in the lack of depth at this position.  Trumpy, Smith, and Schmidt are the only Wildcats on the roster with a carry in college.  Given the amount that the Cats plan to use all three, this poses a problem in the event of injury.  Look to see redshirters Tyris Jones and Tim Hanrahan if the Cats get into mop-up time (either giving or receiving) in order to protect the red-shirts of Jordan Perkins and Treyvon Green.  But if someone gets injured, one of the two freshmen will probably need to step up.

cstv.com

Army – September 17, 2011 – West Point, NY.  In the 2012 edition of Webster’s dictionary, next to “Trap Game”, is the box score from this game.  Service Academy – check; road game – check; quirky offense – check; before a bye week leading up to a rivalry/revenge game – check and check.  By all rights, NU should manhandle this team.  The offensive line averages a meager 270 and the depth chart currently has one (that’s “1”) defensive lineman.  But everyone knows that this game will be far more difficult on the field.

The Black Knights run their own version of the triple option.  This will be a mighty test for a linebacker corps that was consistently out of position last season.  The NU LBs will need to have their heads on straight for Army because RBs Malcolm Brown and Raymond Maples will certainly be ready.   Army QB Trent Steelman is a true double threat with 721 rushing yards in 2010.  While they do not pass much, Steelman threw just over 11 passes per game last season, his completion percentage was over 50% and he threw seven TDs to only 3 picks.  The Army offense is efficient and chock full of precision.  The Cats will need to be on their game.

The Navy defense is far less impressive and is not at all deep.  NU should be able to get its running game going early.  Army lost both of its starting DEs to injury, which will really hurt their pass rushing ability as well.  The Army defense held only three teams to under 20 points in 2010 (North Texas, VMI, and SMU).

Army is coming off a nice bowl win against SMU.  But their six-win season was not against the toughest schedule as their best win was probably at Tulane.  Army will warm up for the Cats with games against Northern Illinois and San Diego State – two teams coming off great season, but returning with new coaches.  NU will be the most put together team that Army will face.

Illinois – October 1, 2011 – Champaign, IL.  NU gets two weeks to prepare to make up for the embarrassing loss to the Illini at Wrigley Field.  Illinois will play its fifth home game to start the season against the Cats, a streak which will include a very tough visitor in Arizona State.  If either NU or Illinois comes into this game with a loss, it will be critical to win this conference opener.

thesportsbank.net

The Illinois offense will once again be led by Nathan Scheelhaase, who impressed everyone last year and will only continue to improve.  Jason Ford will step into some big shoes at running back, although the senior already has over 1,000 yards on fewer than 200 carries over the last two seasons.  The Offensive line is stocked with two seniors and three juniors and averages a stout 308 across the board.

The defense will return some good talent from a squad that held five teams to under 14 points – of course, the defense also gave up 67 points to Michigan and 38 to lowly Minnesota.  There will be two holes in the defense that sophomores Akeem Spence and Jonathan Brown will attempt to fill.  Their ability to mesh with the defense will be key for the Illini, especially in defending the run.  The secondary should be the strength of this unit, with experience at all four spots.

Illinois has managed to disappoint throughout most of the Ron Zook era, but they started to turn the corner in 2010.  This will be a make-or-break year for a program searching for an identity.  This will probably be NU’s second toughest road game (sorry Iowa), and a huge opportunity to steal a win from a team that may have equal talent.

Go Cats!