Saturday November 13, 2010; 11:00 CST (ESPN)
Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois
Northwestern is coming off an absolute meltdown in State College, handing Joe Paterno his 400th career victory after taking a seemingly commanding 21-0 first half lead. Iowa was horribly unimpressive in its last game at Indiana; needing a dropped pass in the end zone to preserve an 18-13 win. Iowa leads the all-time series against Northwestern 46-22-3, based primarily on a 21-year win streak from 1974-1994. Northwestern is 8-5 against Iowa during the Expect Victory Era. In 2007, Iowa won the last meeting in Evanston, 28-17, in a game that NU lead going into the fourth quarter. The last time NU beat Iowa at home was 2005.
The Northwestern and Iowa matchup has evolved into one of the more under-rated rivalries in the Big Ten. Many of the games have been close, six of the last 11 have been within one touchdown and all but three of the last 13 have been within two touchdowns. Additionally, in two infamous games, Iowa kept NU from advancing to the Rose Bowl in 2000, while NU kept Iowa from winning a co-Big Ten Title with its win last year. This rivalry will now be assured of continuing on an annual basis as the two teams will be placed in the same division in the new Big Ten alignment.
It can be safely said that both teams have been a disappointment for their fans this season. After a 5-0 start, NU has lost three of its last four games and will either need to upset #13 Iowa or #5 Wisconsin to equal its win total from last year. Meanwhile, Iowa began the season in the Top Ten and had a schedule that included its four toughest Big Ten games at home. But an early loss to Arizona and a last-minute loss to Wisconsin have the Hawks on the outside looking in at this point in time. Both team still can turn their season around, and with some help, can meet their fans’ collective expectations – but for each team that will require a win on Saturday.
Finally, this is Senior Day for 12 NU players. NU has won its last six Senior Day matchups, including the 2005 win against Iowa. As I said yesterday, this is one of the most successful senior classes in NU history, and these players will be missed by Cat fans: Corbin Bryant, Lee Coleman, Quentin Davie, Stefan Demos, Keegan Grant, John Henry Pace, Josh Rooks, Stephen Simmons, Sidney Stewart, Andrew Struckmeyer, Justan Vaughn, and Nate Williams. Good luck in your future guys!
Injury Report: NU continues to keep a relatively clean injury sheet this season. Backup OL Doug Bartels (Shoulder) and ?th-string running back Jacob Schmidt (Ankle) are both listed as questionable.
Iowa has a ridiculous four running backs listed on the Collegeinjuryreport.com injury list. Brandon Wegher has been out all year with off-the-field issues, while Jewel Hampton (Knee) and Jason White (Knee) are both out for the year. Adam Robinson suffered a concussion against MSU and sat out against Indiana. He is listed as questionable. Marcus Coker will get the carries in his place if Robinson cannot start; he gained 129 yards against Indiana. Also of significance is offensive Tackle Adam Gettis, who started against Wisconsin and MSU, but missed last week with and Ankle injury. He is listed as questionable, but is not on Iowa’s two-deep. The Hawks will also be without linebacker Tyler Neilsen, who started eight games for Iowa before injuring his neck – he is out for the season.
Weather Report: Kinda crappy. 58 degrees at kickoff; 50% chance of rain; 15 mph winds. Winds will be out of the SSE for those keeping track. See Weather.com for up to date details.
When Northwestern has the ball:
Players to Watch
Dan Persa: Persa has seen this movie before. After a meltdown loss to his childhood team, Danny toes the line against a defense comprised of future NFL talent, hell-bent on a Big Ten title. He will need to be more like Scott Tolzien and less like Kirk Cousins (i.e., do not turn the ball over) tomorrow to produce a similar result to last year. Iowa’s pass defense has been decent, allowing anywhere from 200-250 in every Big Ten game, except for 300+ against Michigan. But Iowa rakes in the interceptions, recording 14, including three in three separate games. Iowa’s pass efficiency defense is 14th in the country. Persa will want to pick on Micah Hyde, who is the baby of the Iowa secondary, as a true sophomore.
Adrian Clayborn (DE): If you have not heard of this guy, you are not paying attention. At 6’4”, 285 pounds, he is NFL prototype and is quick and strong. Clayborn has 2.5 sacks, 3.5 more tackles for loss, four QB hurries, a forced fumble and a blocked punt. In other words, he will need to be accounted for on every down. NU had trouble keeping Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan out of the backfield last month. It will need to improve on this significantly if it wants to move the ball.
Jeremy Ebert: Ebert reminded the country why he is one of the top receivers in the Big Ten during the last two weeks, after being relatively quiet during the Purdue and MSU games. Ebert is a ball hawk and will find open spaces in the defense. If the O Line can keep Persa upright, Ebert should have a lot of receptions; but Ebert will be counted on for some YAC if the Cats want to have any explosion play potential.
In the trenches: This is the best front four NU will see all season. All of them could end up in the NFL. The Cats took a step backwards in their offensive line play during the second half last week, after playing reasonably well against MSU and Indiana. They will need to play their best game of the year for the Cats to have a prayer.
Overall Impression: For a defense that is supposed to be all-world, this is a unit that has had lapses against both Wisconsin and Michigan. When the NU offense is working, it is at least as good as either of those teams. NU will literally need the stars to align in order to score in the 20s, however. If it cannot, it will once again need to count on the defense to perform.
When Iowa has the ball:
Ricky Stanzi (QB): Stanzi was infamously put out of last year’s affair and with it the hopes of Iowa playing for a National Championship. He will come into this game with a mindset of unfinished business. He has the most explosive wide receiver tandem in the conference at his disposal and will be facing an NU defensive backfield that is playing without fire and without confidence. It would certainly be improper to suggest that Stanzi would need to get injured again for NU to stop this machine, but it will take some rain soaked throws and an interception or two to keep the defenders from being burned. Stanzi has gone well over 200 yards in each game except MSU and ISU when the Iowa leads did not require him to throw any longer. Unless the weather makes passing impossible, he will approach 300 against the Cats.
Justan Vaughn: As the lone Senior in beleaguered Cat defensive backfield, it is time for Justan to step up and be heard. Coach Fitz publically called out his play this week and he will need to respond in order for the Cats to survive the Iowa passing assault. NU has done a decent job all year of keeping the passing game in front of them, but Iowa does not play that way, and neither does Wisconsin. Justan’s legacy in the defensive backfield can be rewritten in the next three weeks – but it needs to start tomorrow; because…
Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (WR): DJK is one of the most feared wide receivers in the Big Ten. I saw this kid play in high school and was impressed back then (when former Notre Dame DB Kyle McCartney was his QB). But he has advanced leaps and bounds into a future NFL receiver. DJK only has 36 catches, but eight touchdowns. He is Stanzi’s go-to guy to score touchdowns.
In the Trenches: Perhaps the only place where NU has a decided advantage in this game is against Iowa’s offensive line. Of course Iowa grows offensive linemen next to the corn and soybeans, but this crop is a little small and a lot young (two sophomores). Look for NU to pressure the ends of the Iowa line to put more pressure on Stanzi, especially using Quentin Davie as a pass rusher into Stanzi’s face. NU should be able to keep the Iowa running attack relatively at bay.
Overall Impression: While the Iowa offense is far from all-world, it knows how to score points and, more importantly, knows how to hold onto a lead. NU has not been able to turn the ball over as much as it did during the first five games, and the opponents’ offensive statistics have increased as a result. Coach Fitz has gone on record as saying that the one constant among the recent NU wins against Iowa has been the turnover margin. That trend will need to continue for the Cats to have a chance.
Intangibles: Senior Day has always been a special day at Ryan Field; as the team tends to play inspired ball for its elders. Also, as mentioned above, there is a lot on the line for both schools as they attempt to re-attain some of their pre-season expectations. There is also the revenge factor, as Iowa seeks to take back what NU took from Iowa City last season. I would call the intangibles a push, with how each team reacts to the weather as the wild card (I feel like I say that for every home game?).
Bottom Line: The Cats will need to pitch a perfect game to win this matchup. Iowa has too much at stake and they are not going to look past this Northwestern team, which has given them fits in the past. The Cats are able to squeak in some scores on a few defensive lapses, but in the end the Stanzi to DJK combination is too much for the Wildcats.
Iowa wins 27-17.
Go Cats! Prove Me Wrong!
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