Big News out of Boston; More Camp Reports; WR preview; Penn State and Indiana

As Camp Kenosha grinds on in Wisconsin, a game-changing piece of news came out of Boston that will certainly affect the outcome of NU’s season opener.  Boston College All-ACC running back Montel Harris had a procedure performed on his left knee yesterday, which will force him to sit for the opener in Chestnut Hill.  EVR wishes Montel a speedy recovery, and hopefully he will be able to return for conference play.

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But EVR cannot ignore the effect that this will have on the NU-BC game.  Montel was the Eagles offense in 2010 and there is no reliable backup with much experience.  Sterlin Phifer is the sophomore listed on the depth chart – he has 17 career carries.  Either Phifer or classmate Chase Rettig (QB) will have to get the BC offense going or NU may roll in this game.  BC’s defense is good, but Dan Persa should eventually break through.  Look for NU to go from a touchdown underdog to a favorite by at least a field goal by game time.

Fortunately, NU is now a week and a half into summer practice and they have emerged injury free thus far.  But it is not for lack of effort.  Fitz has called Camp Kenosha “24/7 Football” given that the team is emerged into the game for one entire week.  On the other hand, Fitz has said on a number of occasions that he will toy around with the idea of eliminating two-a-days in future years (also noting that the NCAA may mandate it).  The theory being that the players arrive in camp in such great shape that the concept of the two-a-day has lost its effect.  EVR agrees with this, in theory, but notes that it will add to the temptation to require conditioning in the off-season – as opposed to it being optional.

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Speaking of getting into shape, defensive lineman Niko Mafuli arrived at camp this year at a svelte 306 lbs., 32 pounds less than his playing weight at the Ticketcity Bowl in January.  It remains to be seen whether Niko’s new physique will improve his football ability, but Fitz believes that the focus Niko put on his weight loss will translate to better focus on the field.  All EVR can recall about Niko’s season is that he was injured in the Vanderbilt game.  So that is not saying much.  Hopefully Niko can add much-needed depth to the D-Line in 2011.

EVR generally does not cite to the other NU blogs, but Sippin On Purple did a wonderful interview this week with walk-on running back Tyris Jones.  Definitely worth the read.  Awesome to hear the back story of one of the guys who may never see the field.

Skip Myslenski is, as always, doing a wonderful job of blogging and reporting for Camp Kenosha.  Here’s a quick run-down of this week.  Monday involved some situational practices, including goal line offense and running drills offensive plays out of their own end zone.  Both of these situations have required work in recent years.  Also, apparently, Fitz lined up at Center for a few drills.  Skip wrote separately Monday about the “no-name” linebacking corps, as Fitz named them on Big Ten Media Day.  It is basically open competition for these positions – although favorite have emerged for the starting roles.  But the LBs with the most experience will have to improve significantly from last year’s performance.  The LBs were constantly over-committing and finding themselves out of position.  This put an enormous amount of pressure on the defensive backs, and eventually lead to the debacle at Wrigley.  There will be more on the LB position in the coming weeks.

Tuesday’s story did not address much, but it does contain an embedded video of a handful of freshman discussing their first trip to Kenosha.  Wednesday, Skip wrote about the proficiency of the passing game, especially the precision of Dan Persa, and the physicality of the defensive line.  Overall, it appears that Camp Kenosha is moving along without a hitch and that the team is getting read for BC in just over two weeks!

One observation before EVR moves to the WR preview.  The Cats are now two weeks into camp and not a single beat writer has said a word about the running backs.  Lots of reports about how good Persa is looking and the athletic ability of the Cats receiving corps.  Stories about the physicality of the defensive line, the competition among the linebackers, and the leadership of the secondary.  But conspicuously absent is anything about the RBs.  Given how important an improved running game will be to the Cats success this season, the lack of news out of Kenosha is a cause for concern.

Wide Receiver Preview

The success of the Northwestern quarterbacks in the spread offense has been due in large part to the quality of receiver that NU has brought into the system.  For the last 12 years, the Cats have consistently fielded an arsenal of wideouts, all with smart route-running skills and soft hands to make the tough catch.  This season might be the best receiving corps that the Wildcats have ever had, which, along with a healthy Dan Persa, is a scary proposition for opposing defenses.

Leading the pack is All Big-Ten wideout Jeremy Ebert.    He also brought in ten touchdowns.  Ebert is only 6’0”, which is a touch short compared to his teammates, but his 195 frame makes him a relatively huge target.  He also has deceptive speed.  Like many great NU receivers in the past, Ebert was a high school QB, which is demonstrated by his on-the-field smarts.

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Starting with Ebert will be Demetrius Fields, Charles Brown, and Rashad Lawrence.  Fields is the prototype possession receiver with 24 and 25 catches in each of the last two seasons – none more than 26 yards.  He make Ebert look tiny at a stout 6’0” / 210.  He is a great route runner.  Brown finally began to come on at the end of his junior season, finishing with 16 catches for the season.  Brown has one of the most impressive springs of any NU offensive player – and has worked himself into a starting roll.  Lawrence impressed many as a true freshman in 2010 and is probably the Cats best deep threat, with receptions of 44 and 50 yards last year.  He is the tallest of the starters at 6’2” and he is expected to play a much larger role in 2011.

Cat fans saw the potential for greatness out of Venric Mark and Tony Jones last season, who will be returning as true sophomores and will certainly see part of the action.  Mark is too fast to be kept off  the field and Jones is another potential big-play threat along with Lawrence.  Look for these two, along with speedster Drew Moulton to figure into the equation as the first set of backups.  Another Soph., Mike Jenson, had an impressive spring and is currently listed on the two-deep depth chart as well.

Finally, the Cats are already prepared to re-load with freshmen Cameron Dickerson, Christian Jones, and Pierre Youngblood-Ary – all of whom tower at 6’3” and could be a dominant three-some in years to come.  Given the depth on the field already, its likely that only one of these guys will see action in 2011.  Pierre has looked the most impressive thus far.

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Penn State – October 22, 2011 – Ryan Field.  NU has had two consecutive heartbreaking disappointments against Penn State in the last two years.  In both games, the Cats were in position to win in the second half, but Penn State simply rolled.  NU players have a bad taste in their mouths about this game – especially Dan Persa, who will get his last chance at his hometown favorite.

On offense Penn State has yet to decide on a quarterback.  While Matt McGloin led the Lions to nice victories against NU and Michigan, he lacks the excitement of Rob Bolden, who is more likely to be the starter.  Silas Redd is the leading returning rusher and will be called upon as the workforce as Stephfon Green continues to get pushed down the depth chart after a breakthrough 2008.  The O-Line starts three seniors, so sophomore John Urschel will have to pull his weight to avoid being classified as the weak link.

On defense the Lions bring back a very veteran group of seven seniors and four juniors – and may be the most experienced defense in the league.  Problem being that the defense gave up 30 points of more in four of the last eight games – and almost allowed Dan Persa to run them out of the building.  Senior linebacker Nate Stupar will need to lead this defense to a more solid position if this team wants to compete in a tough Leaders division.

Indiana – October 29, 2011 – Bloomington, IN.  Bloomington has given the Cats fits over the last decade.   The Cats have only won two of the last five there, and the two wins were by three points and in overtime respectively.  Bloomington is lead into 2011 with a familiar face, Kevin Wilson, who along with Randy Walker was the architect of the Wildcat spread offense.  He has since coached from the booth in a national championship game and groomed a Heisman trophy winner.  So, yeah, he knows what he is doing.

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Problem is, it may take a while.  Needing to find a new starting QB, Dusty Kiel (brother of IU’s stunning QB commitment Gunner Kiel) will have to compete for the job.  The running back corps are extremely young, with redshirt sophomore D’Angelo Roberts expected to be the starter.  The Hoosiers do return WR Demarlo Belcher and TE Max Dedmond, who will need to be big playmakers on this young offense.  The O-Line is a relatively veteran group who will need to keep the QB upright for this offense to function.

Defensively, the Hoosiers have a decent amount of experience and talent, but there are some holes.  There are looking to start a freshman at linebacker with Chase Hoobler and sophomore Lawrence Barnett at CB.  This is a defense that had some pretty solid games against NU and Iowa – but also gave up 40 points four times – including an embarrassing 83 to Wisconsin.  Strong offensive should be able to score a lot of points on these guys if they don’t shape up.

Go Cats!

Game Preview: #13 Iowa (7-2) (4-1) at Northwestern (6-3) (2-3)

Saturday November 13, 2010; 11:00 CST (ESPN)

Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois

Northwestern is coming off an absolute meltdown in State College, handing Joe Paterno his 400^th career victory after taking a seemingly commanding 21-0 first half lead.  Iowa was horribly unimpressive in its last game at Indiana; needing a dropped pass in the end zone to preserve an 18-13 win.  Iowa leads the all-time series against Northwestern 46-22-3, based primarily on a 21-year win streak from 1974-1994.  Northwestern is 8-5 against Iowa during the Expect Victory Era.  In 2007, Iowa won the last meeting in Evanston, 28-17, in a game that NU lead going into the fourth quarter.  The last time NU beat Iowa at home was 2005.

The Northwestern and Iowa matchup has evolved into one of the more under-rated rivalries in the Big Ten.  Many of the games have been close, six of the last 11 have been within one touchdown and all but three of the last 13 have been within two touchdowns.  Additionally, in two infamous games, Iowa kept NU from advancing to the Rose Bowl in 2000, while NU kept Iowa from winning a co-Big Ten Title with its win last year.  This rivalry will now be assured of continuing on an annual basis as the two teams will be placed in the same division in the new Big Ten alignment. 

It can be safely said that both teams have been a disappointment for their fans this season.  After a 5-0 start, NU has lost three of its last four games and will either need to upset #13 Iowa or #5 Wisconsin to equal its win total from last year.  Meanwhile, Iowa began the season in the Top Ten and had a schedule that included its four toughest Big Ten games at home.  But an early loss to Arizona and a last-minute loss to Wisconsin have the Hawks on the outside looking in at this point in time.  Both team still can turn their season around, and with some help, can meet their fans’ collective expectations – but for each team that will require a win on Saturday.

Finally, this is Senior Day for 12 NU players.  NU has won its last six Senior Day matchups, including the 2005 win against Iowa.  As I said yesterday, this is one of the most successful senior classes in NU history, and these players will be missed by Cat fans: Corbin Bryant, Lee Coleman, Quentin Davie, Stefan Demos, Keegan Grant, John Henry Pace, Josh Rooks, Stephen Simmons, Sidney Stewart, Andrew Struckmeyer, Justan Vaughn, and Nate Williams.  Good luck in your future guys! 

Injury Report: NU continues to keep a relatively clean injury sheet this season.  Backup OL Doug Bartels (Shoulder) and ?^th-string running back Jacob Schmidt (Ankle) are both listed as questionable.

Iowa has a ridiculous four running backs listed on the Collegeinjuryreport.com injury list.  Brandon Wegher has been out all year with off-the-field issues, while Jewel Hampton (Knee) and Jason White (Knee) are both out for the year.  Adam Robinson suffered a concussion against MSU and sat out against Indiana.  He is listed as questionable.  Marcus Coker will get the carries in his place if Robinson cannot start; he gained 129 yards against Indiana.  Also of significance is offensive Tackle Adam Gettis, who started against Wisconsin and MSU, but missed last week with and Ankle injury.  He is listed as questionable, but is not on Iowa’s two-deep.  The Hawks will also be without linebacker Tyler Neilsen, who started eight games for Iowa before injuring his neck – he is out for the season.

Weather Report: Kinda crappy.  58 degrees at kickoff; 50% chance of rain; 15 mph winds.  Winds will be out of the SSE for those keeping track.  See Weather.com for up to date details.

When Northwestern has the ball:

Players to Watch

Dan Persa: Persa has seen this movie before.  After a meltdown loss to his childhood team, Danny toes the line against a defense comprised of future NFL talent, hell-bent on a Big Ten title.  He will need to be more like Scott Tolzien and less like Kirk Cousins (i.e., do not turn the ball over) tomorrow to produce a similar result to last year.   Iowa’s pass defense has been decent, allowing anywhere from 200-250 in every Big Ten game, except for 300+ against Michigan.  But Iowa rakes in the interceptions, recording 14, including three in three separate games.  Iowa’s pass efficiency defense is 14^th in the country.   Persa will want to pick on Micah Hyde, who is the baby of the Iowa secondary, as a true sophomore.

Adrian Clayborn (DE): If you have not heard of this guy, you are not paying attention.  At 6’4”, 285 pounds, he is NFL prototype and is quick and strong.  Clayborn has 2.5 sacks, 3.5 more tackles for loss, four QB hurries, a forced fumble and a blocked punt.  In other words, he will need to be accounted for on every down.  NU had trouble keeping Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan out of the backfield last month.  It will need to improve on this significantly if it wants to move the ball.

Jeremy Ebert: Ebert reminded the country why he is one of the top receivers in the Big Ten during the last two weeks, after being relatively quiet during the Purdue and MSU games.  Ebert is a ball hawk and will find open spaces in the defense.  If the O Line can keep Persa upright, Ebert should have a lot of receptions; but Ebert will be counted on for some YAC if the Cats want to have any explosion play potential.

In the trenches: This is the best front four NU will see all season.  All of them could end up in the NFL.  The Cats took a step backwards in their offensive line play during the second half last week, after playing reasonably well against MSU and Indiana.  They will need to play their best game of the year for the Cats to have a prayer.

Overall Impression: For a defense that is supposed to be all-world, this is a unit that has had lapses against both Wisconsin and Michigan.  When the NU offense is working, it is at least as good as either of those teams.  NU will literally need the stars to align in order to score in the 20s, however.  If it cannot, it will once again need to count on the defense to perform.

When Iowa has the ball:

Ricky Stanzi (QB): Stanzi was infamously put out of last year’s affair and with it the hopes of Iowa playing for a National Championship.  He will come into this game with a mindset of unfinished business.  He has the most explosive wide receiver tandem in the conference at his disposal and will be facing an NU defensive backfield that is playing without fire and without confidence.  It would certainly be improper to suggest that Stanzi would need to get injured again for NU to stop this machine, but it will take some rain soaked throws and an interception or two to keep the defenders from being burned.  Stanzi has gone well over 200 yards in each game except MSU and ISU when the Iowa leads did not require him to throw any longer.  Unless the weather makes passing impossible, he will approach 300 against the Cats.

Justan Vaughn: As the lone Senior in beleaguered Cat defensive backfield, it is time for Justan to step up and be heard.  Coach Fitz publically called out his play this week and he will need to respond in order for the Cats to survive the Iowa passing assault.  NU has done a decent job all year of keeping the passing game in front of them, but Iowa does not play that way, and neither does Wisconsin.  Justan’s legacy in the defensive backfield can be rewritten in the next three weeks – but it needs to start tomorrow; because…

Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (WR): DJK is one of the most feared wide receivers in the Big Ten.  I saw this kid play in high school and was impressed back then (when former Notre Dame DB Kyle McCartney was his QB).  But he has advanced leaps and bounds into a future NFL receiver.  DJK only has 36 catches, but eight touchdowns.  He is Stanzi’s go-to guy to score touchdowns.

In the Trenches: Perhaps the only place where NU has a decided advantage in this game is against Iowa’s offensive line.  Of course Iowa grows offensive linemen next to the corn and soybeans, but this crop is a little small and a lot young (two sophomores).   Look for NU to pressure the ends of the Iowa line to put more pressure on Stanzi, especially using Quentin Davie as a pass rusher into Stanzi’s face.  NU should be able to keep the Iowa running attack relatively at bay.

Overall Impression: While the Iowa offense is far from all-world, it knows how to score points and, more importantly, knows how to hold onto a lead.  NU has not been able to turn the ball over as much as it did during the first five games, and the opponents’ offensive statistics have increased as a result.  Coach Fitz has gone on record as saying that the one constant among the recent NU wins against Iowa has been the turnover margin.  That trend will need to continue for the Cats to have a chance.

Intangibles: Senior Day has always been a special day at Ryan Field; as the team tends to play inspired ball for its elders.  Also, as mentioned above, there is a lot on the line for both schools as they attempt to re-attain some of their pre-season expectations.  There is also the revenge factor, as Iowa seeks to take back what NU took from Iowa City last season.  I would call the intangibles a push, with how each team reacts to the weather as the wild card (I feel like I say that for every home game?).

Bottom Line:  The Cats will need to pitch a perfect game to win this matchup.  Iowa has too much at stake and they are not going to look past this Northwestern team, which has given them fits in the past.  The Cats are able to squeak in some scores on a few defensive lapses, but in the end the Stanzi to DJK combination is too much for the Wildcats. 

Iowa wins 27-17.

Go Cats! Prove Me Wrong!

johnknublog@gmail.com
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Game Preview: #8 Michigan State (7-0) (3-0) at Northwestern (5-1) (1-1)

Saturday, October 23, 2010 11:00 CST

Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois

Photo credit: hailtopurple.com

Northwestern spent its bye week recovering from its first loss of the season and preparing for this big game against a ranked Michigan State team, who may be playing with more confidence than anyone in the country right now.  This is the 51^st meeting between the two schools.  Michigan State leads the overall series 34-16 and has won six of eleven during the Expect Victory Era.  Michigan State is 16-10 in Evanston and has not lost in Evanston since 2001.

Northwestern and Michigan State have produced some classic battles over the past 15 years, but has also produced some classic blowouts. 

·         1997 NU defeats ranked MSU team on Anwawn Jones’ blocked FG; the Cats beat Nick Saban.

·         2001 NU beats MSU 27-26 in a wild finish after a fairly boring first 55 minutes; Victory Right II sets up the game winning FG.

·         2006 MSU makes largest comeback in NCAA Division I history, 35 points, to win 41-38.

·         2007 NU wins a shootout in East Lansing, 48-41.

Of the other seven matchups, none have been within 10 points, and four have been decided by more than 20.

Of the more intriguing matchups is NU’s passing game against the Spartan defense.  Dan Persa ranks fourth in the nation in passing efficiency; Sparty is 2^nd in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense, 17^th in the nation.

Injury Report: The injury sheet is pretty clean for both teams.  Vince Brown was cleared to play yesterday after practicing every day since Tuesday.  For MSU, QB Kirk Cousins had tweaked his ankle against Illinois, but it appears that it will not keep him from playing.  CB Chris Rucker continues to be held out by a team-imposed suspension for his “violation of team rules.”  It has not yet been announced whether he will play Saturday.

Weather Report: Fans, this is not looking good.  The big storm hitting Texas this morning is moving its way up to Chicago and looks like it will hit, well, at 11:00 CST tomorrow.  60% chance of T-Showers, high of 66.  Bring your poncho. Check Weather.com for details.

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

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Dan Persa: Persa’s performances have evolved from the shocking to the expected.  In his last two games, he completed 75% of his passes and threw one interception; passing for 300+ yards in both games.  Yet it was viewed as a “down” performance for both. Maybe perhaps because he was not quite as sharp against the faster Big Ten defenses.  Well he will need to be sharp tomorrow as the Spartans bring a nasty defense.  Up the middle they are very strong with highly-talented, veteran players.  But if there is a weakness on the MSU defense, it is the corners.  If Rucker does not play, Darqueze Dennard (true Frosh) and Johnny Adams (RS Soph) will have to cover NU’s talented receivers.  And the backups in the secondary are just as young.  NU’s multi receiver sets may be able to break some explosive plays against this defense….



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Greg Jones (LB): Unless Greg Jones has something to say about it.  Jones is a monster of a linebacker who is probably the best defensive player in the Big Ten along with Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan.  Jones had a season high 14 tackles against run-happy Illinois last week.  But he only has one sack on the season, and four other tackles for loss.  Whether this is the result of a scheme change by MSU, or blocking assignments by offenses is unknown.  But NU will need to keep this guy out of the backfield if it wants to succeed.  Jones does a nice job dropping back into coverage and may see some time covering Drake Dunsmore.  He will be a terror that NU will have to contain, somehow.

Photo credit: bigtennetwork.com

Jeremy Ebert: Ebert is very quietly having an All-Conference season (I think I led with that two weeks ago, sue me).  He leads the conference in receiving yards and is 13^th in the nation in yards per game.  His 35 receptions is second in the conference to go along with his five touchdowns.  MSU is going to need to gameplan around Ebert, which should open up some lanes for his teammates.  If Ebert gets on an island against Dennard, it could be two thumbs up all day.

In the trenches: MSU, like Northwestern, rotates in six players regularly to make up its defensive front four.  Its size and speed should be able to plug up running lanes against an NU rushing attack (is that really the right word) that has well-documented struggles.  MSU only has ten sacks through seven games.  NU’s Offensive line had trouble keeping Purdue Pete out of the backfield, which caused problems for Dan Persa, this will need to improve, and should, against a defense that will probably attack a little less.

Overall impression: If the offensive line can give Persa time to throw, NU’s offense can be very effective against a thin MSU secondary.  MSU has only seen a truly effective passing game against Notre Dame, and did not do much to be able to stop that in keys points in the game.  NU’s running game will continue to struggle, but the presence of the running back will keep Greg Jones and fellow linebacker Eric Gordon honest, which should be all Persa needs.  The weather will really play a role in NU’s ability to move the ball, but a wet field generally favors route-running receivers as long as Persa can keep the ball dry enough to throw.

When Michigan State has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Photo credit: bleacherreport.com

Kirk Cousins (QB): Cousins is still, somehow, only a Junior.  He runs a solid pro-style offense, which is really the first time this NU defense has seen such a set.  Cousins has 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, completing about 2/3 of his passes.  He is well known for his leadership and his ability to spread the ball around to his weapons.  He has big targets in Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham, who can test the NU secondary, and they will.  Cousins has a bit of a tweaked ankle, which may affect his mobility especially on the wet turf.  NU could score an early advantage by putting some pressure on Cousins and forcing some ill-advised throws.  He is, at times, interception prone.



Photo credit: nusports.com

Nate Williams: Williams has had a fairly quiet first half of the season, but I feel like he is finally ready to break out.  He will be needed to stop the MSU running attack as Quentin Davie cannot do it himself.  If the D-Line is being pushed off the ball, as it has in the last two weeks, Williams and the LBs will need to be patient and find the holes to stop the runners – as opposed to being caught in the mass of purple and green jerseys.  Williams should also be called upon to play some coverage against TE Charlie Gantt.

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Edwin Baker and Le’veon Bell (RBs): MSUs two-headed monster at running back is as good of a tandem will see all year, and that includes Wisconsin.  Both are young, fast, and capable of busting the big run.  NU will have to be true to its schemes and contain these two guys.  Otherwise, Kirk Cousins will not even need to throw the ball.

In the trenches: NU’s front four was manhandled Minnesota, giving up huge runs on first and second downs.  Most of the game against Purdue, however, it appeared to improve, giving up the two big runs and a few scrambles – but otherwise shutting down the running game.  For NU to have a chance to win, the front four need to continue to improve and get off the ball fast.  If they spend the majority of the game being pushed backwards, it is going to a long wet afternoon.

Overall Impression: NU’s defense has not faced a pro-style offense all season, and quite frankly, it is built better to stop it.  The Linebackers are still the best talent on this defense and the defense is better as whole when there are more LBs on the field.  The secondary will get beat by a few play action plays, but as long as they do not lead to some big touchdowns, this game should stay close.  MSU offense can be a little inconsistent, but can score in bunches as Illinois and Michigan saw in the last two weeks.  NU will take its punches, but will have to counter in order to be in this game.

Intangibles: Where do I begin?  How about the most obvious.  Michigan State fans have been talking for two weeks that if they beat Iowa (October 30) they are going to the Rose Bowl.  This game is an afterthought to the fan base.  The key will be whether the players have bought into their own hype or whether the coaching staff has kept them grounded.  Dantonio’s efforts to coach from the field may help that.

NU has had two weeks to prepare for this game and is 10-1 after its last 11 losses (8-0 after last 8 Big Ten losses).  Fitz should have the team focused and hopefully will avoid the comedy of errors that have plagued the team over the last three weeks.  Ara Parseghian should be able to give an emotional boost, even if the players do not know who he is.  Homecoming game – this will be a fun one.

Bottom Line: As I begin to write this paragraph, I am still not certain how it will end.  NU is becoming the sexy pick for the upset of the week nationally; and that makes me uncomfortable.  From a talent standpoint, NU is on par with MSU.  But from a confidence standpoint, MSU is flying sky high, while NU has suffered through penalties, mental mistakes, turnovers, and special teams’ mishaps – all of which will be magnified by the poor weather.  NU will need to force a turnover or two, preferably early to get their heads on strait.  NU has played in 22 consecutive game where it has held a lead or been tied in the fourth quarter, sadly, I think that the streak ends tomorrow.  The game remains close, but NU is unable to get the drive it needs in the fourth.

Cats lose 21-24.

Go Cats!  Prove me wrong.

johnknublog@gmail.com
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http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Sunday Morning Superback

Epic Fail

Northwestern struggled in all aspects of the game Saturday night; losing their first game of the year to an injury-riddled Purdue team.  Major failures at key times in the game were the Cats downfall, despite competent offense and (relatively) decent defense.

But first, credit where credit is due.  I hate when NU pulls off an upset and all the commentators do is talk about how poorly the favored team played – I refuse to play that game.  Purdue used its two weeks well.  It had a great game plan on defense; using All-world defensive end Ryan Kerrigan to put pressure on Persa, but keeping the D-Tackles back to cover Persa’s scrambling.  Persa’s longest run was only 9 yards tied for NU’s longest run of the game.  The rest of Purdue’s defensive strategy was a solid bend-but-don’t break philosophy, which yielded only 17 points despite giving up 389 yards of total offense.  The result was forcing special teams opportunities, which were the Achilles heal for NU.

On offense, Purdue took a play out of Minnesota’s playbook and ran the ball directly at the NU defense.  Purdue ran for 255 yards, although 128 of this were on two longs runs.  They did not need to pass the ball – and that is a good thing for them because Rob Henry was only 6-18 passing.  All in all, Purdue was well-prepared and opportunistic.

So what went wrong?

On offense, it is difficult to point to a true reason for the lack of scoring.  The yardage total was not huge, but Persa racked up another 300-yard passing performance and once again spread the ball around to eight different receivers.  The offense did not turn the ball over as the only fumble was on a special teams gaff.  But three of the six punts were taken from Purdue territory.  Add the two missed field goals, and NU scored only three times in eight visits to Purdue’s half of the field.  The issue here was not the inability to execute, but the inability to finish.

It certainly seemed like Persa had a poor game.  But he went 30-41 for 305 and ran for a touchdown.  He was, however sacked five times.  On his actual running plays, Dan gained 51 yards on 15 carries.  The Purdue contain defense gave Persa only 3.4 yards per carry on run plays and 1.2 overall once you include the sacks.

The offensive player of the game had to be Jeremy Ebert, who seemed to catch every one of Persa’s passes.  He finished with 11 catches for 124 yards and continues to have an All-Conference-type season.  But he was unable to hook up with Persa in the end zone. 

The rest of the NU running game was non-existent, as Schmidt, Trumpy, and Adonis Smith combined for a mere 60 yards on 22 carries.  Yes, that is less than three yards per carry.  I guess it is back to the drawing board there.

But the key failure of the game was the holding penalty on Ben Burkett in the closing minutes of the game.  NU was third and five from the Purdue 26.  Jacob Schmidt took a quick hitter from Persa for 22 yards – which would have been the longest NU run of the game by double.  The Cats would have been first and goal from the four with less than two minutes left.  Instead the penalty gave them a third and long where the only reasonable option was to play for field goal range and the tie.  It was a clear hold, but an unfortunate penalty at that.

Defensively, it is hard to put a finger on just what went wrong.  Purdue only gained 279 yards, with 128 coming on the two long runs and 75 coming on the last drive.  This means that Purdue gained only 76 yards on their other 44 plays.  Henry was only 6 of 18 for only 47 yards passing with a brutal interception.  The Boilers were 3 of 13 on third down (the Cats were 8 of 18).  NU had an eight-minute advantage in time of possession. 

But it was the lapses in key situations that killed the Cats in the end.  The long run by Henry on the last play of the first quarter set up Purdue’s first score after being unable to move the ball in the first fifteen (Purdue had 44 yards up to that point).  The quick pitch to Keith Carlos midway through the third quarter set up another field goal and broke another offensive drought (Purdue had only 56 yards between the two long runs, which occurred 23 minutes apart).  Then, finally, in the fourth quarter, Purdue executed the best drive of the game going 75 yards in 14 plays (Purdue had lost 6 yards since the Carlos run).  Purdue went for it on fourth and one from the seven and scored on a little run by Dan Dierking.

Seriously defense.  It is fourth and one in a clutch situation against a team that has not been successful throwing all game.  Put nine in the box and force the throw to beat you – do not give up a running touchdown on that play.

But the story of this game was the epic failures on special teams.  A misplay on a kickoff after Purdue’s first touchdown buried the offense at Purdue’s five.  The Cats punted after gaining 12 yards.  Hunter Bates’ fumble on a second quarter field goal lead directly to a field goal.  A poorly played kickoff after Purdue’s second field goal forced the Cats to start at the 16 – a drive which fizzled out at midfield. The lone bright spot in the return game was a nice return of the second half kickoff by Simmons.  This lead to the Cats second touchdown.  There certainly is a causal relationship between success on special teams and the ability to score.

Brandon Williams had another strong outing, but a 15-yard disaster of a rugby punt was saved only by an equally brutal Henry interception.  When you have a punter of Williams’ quality, you wonder why the rugby punt is necessary?

In the end, the lasting memory of Purdue-NU 2010 will be the continuing struggles of Stefan Demos.  After drilling a field goal in the second quarter, he had a try blocked with 8:13 remaining.  The snap on this kick was fine, but he kicked it way too low.  Demos certainly has the range from 41-yards and there was no reason to kick the line drive.  The miss on the final attempt was primarily the result of a high snap, but Williams recovered and made a good hold – looked like Demos just panicked after the bad snap.  Again, the kick was a line drive, which was again not necessary.  Demos has been the hero and goat many times in the last 15 months.  Cat fans left the stadium wondering whether Stefan has the goods to finish out his senior year, or whether it is time to give one of the younger guys a chance.

So where do the Cats go from here?  First, the failures on offense and defense are not world changing.  There is very little reason for concern here; it was just a bad game.  Especially considering the Cats will not face Pryor or Robinson, i.e., the games against the really mobile QBs are past. 

But special teams does win and lose games.  And NU continues to fail to pay enough attention to special teams and it will continue to be a risk factor until they do.  Were they losing the kicks and punts in the lights?  Who knows – but you would think that is something they would practice.  Also, why call for a rugby punt in that situation?  Or why not practice it to the point where your traditional-style punter is competent with the task.  And finally, when your long-snapper is skipping halftime to practice snaps during the band show, there is obviously a problem. 

This Northwestern team now has the same two-week period that Purdue did – to prepare for a team that is clearly better than them.  But if NU does not work on focus and execution, October 23 could be an ugly game.

Go Cats!

Sunday Morning Superback

Wildcat Drama in Minneapolis; Cats win 29-28


Northwestern played another mistake-prone game, but once again left the field the victors.  NU committed ten penalties for 79 yards, many of them at the most inopportune times; and turned the ball over three times – twice in the red zone.  Stephan Demos missed another extra point but was given the chance to redeem himself – and did – drilling the game-winning field goal with 2:07 to play.  In the end, winning on the road in the Big Ten is always difficult, just ask Ohio State.  And when the chips fell this weekend, the Cats are 5-0 and ranked #25 in the Coaches Poll.

The most concerning part of the game was the timeliness of the penalties and turnovers.  Too many penalties that kept Minnesota drives alive.  And 21 of Minnesota’s 28 points came directly off the Wildcats three turnovers.  NU was moving the ball very well in the first 20 minutes – it could have been 28-7 easily by halftime. 

But there were some bright spots:

We learned a few things about Dan Persa.  First, he demonstrates more and more each week.  He threw some great balls on Saturday – and even though it seemed like he missed on a few, he still only threw seven incompletions.  Persa also used his legs as much as he has since the Vanderbilt game.  He continues to show that when defenses are going to drop back into coverage, he will burn them.  Most of all he showed the cool under pressure needed to win the big game in the clutch.  He took the ball and drove down for the go-ahead score – in doing so taking on the tradition of cardiac QBs going back to Zak Kustok.  One downside was Dan’s interception.  He scrambled and lofted a bad ball into double coverage.  It looked like a mis-read, as the safety came over to pick the ball; but either way, the ball should have never been thrown.  He will see a lot more pressure from better defenses than he saw on that play, and he is going to need to show better decision-making.  Also, his fumble was inexcusable.  If he is going to run the ball, he has to protect it better.  Teams will see that and attack the ball until he shows he can protect it.  Sliding instead of diving would help too.

The officiating was suspect.  I am rarely one to complain about the referees, but there were a few suspect situations that stuck out to me.  First was the forward progress whistle when Minnesota was backed up on their own four-yard line.  NU stripped the ball and the Gophers recovered in the end zone for what should have been a safety.  When the runner is clearly being manhandled, the whistle should be blown, but the runner was clearly still moving forward.  Poor.  Also, on a Persa scramble in the second (?) quarter, he slid and had his helmet ripped off.  Look, if protection of players is a point of emphasis, how can a hit that rips off the quarterback’s helmet not be a safety issue and a flag – especially when he is sliding.  Finally, these penalties were probably legit, but how often do you hear about offensive offsides or holding by a defensive lineman?  Let alone thrice in one game.

The young guns.  Congrats to true freshman Tony Jones, who not only returned from injury, but scored on a 44-yard touchdown reception on his very first play from scrimmage.  He finished with four catches for 68 yards.  But he was also called for both of the offensive offsides.  He is going to need to get used to the pace of the offense and make sure he checks with the line judge before he sets.  Venric Mark fumbled in the first half, setting up a score for Minnesota.  He was not protecting the ball well and he needs to learn that defenders are stronger and faster than they were in high school.  Finally, in a curious move, Adonis Smith appeared and got two carries, which makes him ineligible for a red-shirt.  It is safe to say that the Arby Fields experiment is over as the combination of burning Smith’s redshirt and Fields not even seeing the field suggest that he is not only in the doghouse, but locked in it. 

Two thumbs up.  Quietly, Jeremy Ebert is evolving into one of the best receivers in the Big Ten, and at the same time, one of the best NU has had in a long time.  He is seemingly involved in every clutch third down conversion, and of course, he willed his way to a touchdown on Persa’s desperation throw in the fourth quarter.  Opponents have started to find ways to shut down Dunsmore, and Ebert is certainly benefiting from this.  Persa was able to distribute to seven different receivers, but almost one third of his completions were to his favorite target (and mine) Mr. Ebert.

Offensive Line. Overall, this was the best that the O-Line has played all year.  Persa was only sacked once, although Minnesota only has three sacks for the year.  The team also had a much-improved 4.1 yards per carry – almost one yard per carry more than the year’s average.  There were a few jailbreaks, but not bad enough that Persa was not able to find his way out.  This is a group that is going to need to be peaking on October 23 against Greg Jones and MSU, so it is very good to see them continue to improve.

The Defense.  Hmmm, a lot to say here; so I will try to make this quick and as pain free as possible.  Minnesota’s ability to run the ball was quite frankly shocking, especially considering that Duane Bennett was basically shut down.  NU let DeLeon Eskridge look like Marion Barber, as he averaged 5.4 yards per carry.  The Gopher offensive line was just punishing NU’s front four all game.  And as the Brian Greise so aptly pointed out, this set up the play action, which just killed NU all day.  (Seriously, this might have been the only legitimate piece of insight that Greise added to the broadcast, I just wish he did not repeat it every 3-4 plays).  The Cats only recorded one sack and one turnover – both in the last seven minutes of the game.  The unit that had been powerful and opportunistic through four games was passive and submissive.  The only really bright spot on the defensive side of the ball was that there was a lot of really nice open field tackles and tackles behind the line of scrimmage.  Those are some of the things that Cat fans want to continue to see.

Overall, NU and Coach Fitz have a lot to be concerned about after this game.  There were a lot of bright points, but probably more dark ones.  We no know that Dan Persa is capable of bringing the team back from behind.  But the rest of the team needs to keep him from needed to be in that position.  NU needs to keep its head on straight and take care of business against an injury-plagued, yet rested Purdue team this week.  But then it needs to take the bye week to regroup and re-evaluate.  This still has the pieces to be a very special team, but there is a lot of work to do to fine tune the pieces.

Go Cats!

Game Preview: Northwestern (2-0) at Rice (1-1)

Saturday, September 18, 2010 6:00 CST

Rice Stadium, Houston Texas

Photo credit: ricefootball.net

Northwestern dominated FCS Illinois State in Evanston last Saturday with a 37-3 win, its largest margin of victory in almost five years.  Rice is coming off its first win of the season, a 32-31 road victory at North Texas, the Owls first non-conference road win since 2006.  Rice and Northwestern have met five times previously, three times in Houston, with Rice leading the series 4-1.  The last meeting was in 1998, a rather unimpressive 23-14 Wildcat win in Houston.  Expect Victory fans may remember the 1997 game, a 40-34 Owl victory in Evanston.  In that game, Rice ran the option all over the Wildcat defense – if my memory serves me right, it had more than 500 yards rushing.  Rice is 5-14 all time against the Big Ten.

Injury Report: Good news here as Outside Linebacker Bryce McNaul (shoulder) has been upgraded to probable and is listed as a starter in NU’s two-deep.  The Cats will need the depth in the Texas heat tomorrow night.  On the other hand, backup DT Niko Mafuli (leg) was downgraded to doubtful, although everything points to a return within the month for Niko.  OL Keegan Grant (Illness) and FS David Arnold (foot) are also questionable.  Given the conditions, they may be called into service in a pinch.

For the Owls, Quarterback Taylor McHargue is out with a separated shoulder.  He led Rice to their game-winning touchdown last week.  Starting Tight End Vance McDonald (shoulder) is also out.  Rice is also playing the season without their All-Conference USA Defensive Tackle Scott Solomon.

Weather: Hot and humid. 93 with a light wind.  Coach Fitz says that he plans to bring 70 players to the game and use as many as 67. Check out the Weather.com forecast.

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Dan Persa: Dan’s spot as the Wildcat offense player to watch is hereby solidified until further notice.  He has been scary efficient and should continue to be so as long as his line gives him time.  Rice plays a 4-2-5 set, basically a permanent nickel.  Usually this is indicative of a lack of depth or talent at Linebacker.  We may see Persa running the option more, as well as more slants and in routes.  Every starting DB for Rice is listed as 6’1”, which makes for some taller Cornerbacks.  This may limit patterns that would require NU’s receivers to out-jump the defender.  There are two sophomores in the secondary however, so the Cats may try to expose the youth.

Photo credit: minerillustrated.com

Travis Bradshaw (FS): It is never a good sign when your leading tackler is your free safety.  He is a second team All-Conference USA selection by Phil Steele.  Bradshaw joined the Owls as a walk-on and is a great story.  His 10 tackles in the opener against Texas marked his tenth straight game with double-digit tackles.  He is a quick safety who should keep big gains to a minimum.  Rice needs to avoid leaving Bradshaw one-on-one against Dunsmore, however, as this would be a major mismatch.

Jeremy Ebert: Ebert is the Wildcats leading receiver so far this year and is taking on the role of a dangerous possession receiver.  He, along with the rest of the NU receiving corps, are giving up a little size to the tall Rice secondary.  But he should make up for it with his experience and his route running.  If Ebert and Persa get into a rhythm, they could have a very successful evening.

In the trenches: NU’s offensive line was much stronger against ISU last week.  Rice’s defensive line is more experienced than the Redbirds, but they are a similar size – even a little smaller on the ends.  Cheta Ozougwu and Kramer Lucio are quick pass rushers, but are the size of Big Ten linebackers.  NU’s tackles should be able to push them around in the running game.  But needs to make sure to protect Persa without holding.

Overall impression: Fitz indicated that he might slow down the offense a little to counteract the heat.  That might work a double advantage.  There are a lot of holes in this defense, but there are strengths as well.  Persa will need to take his time and make his reads.  The weakness at linebacker will generally mean fewer blitzes. If Persa has time to throw, the Cats should be in really good shape.  Also, the 4-2-5 is generally a good defense to run against.  Arby Fields should be able to continue to build his confidence.  As long as the Cats do not get exhausted, they should be able to score some points. 

When Rice has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Photo credit: chron.com

Nick Fanuzzi (QB): Fanuzzi makes his first start of the season in place of the injured McHargue.  But Fanuzzi started eight games in 2009, so he is no stranger to taking snaps in real time.  With that said, Rice was 2-10 last year, so he has his work cut out for him.  The Wildcat defense were animals last week and will be ready to feast again.  Fanuzzi’s composure could be one of the keys to the game.  He is 15-26 for 212 yards with one TD and one pick in seeing about half of the pass plays for the Owls this season.  He has a pair of senior receivers to throw to, including 6’3” Pierre Beasley.  But the loss of his TE McDonald will take away a solid target.

Jordan Mabin: Northwestern’s junior corner has vastly improved over the course of his career.  But NU has traditionally had problems with tall talented receivers.  No doubt, Mabin will be assigned to Beasley – unless NU decides to match up Justan Vaughn, who has a slight height advantage on Mabin.  Either way, the corners will be tested and their ability to keep their man marked will be a difference maker.

Sam McGuffie (RB): McGuffie is not a starter, but he may be the most electrifying player on the field.  The transfer from Michigan saw his first playing time as an Owl against Texas and scored on a thrilling 51-yard reception against North Texas.  McGuffie is best known as a Youtube sensation for his jumping ability. If you have not seen McGuffie's high school highlight reel, check this out.  He does not have the ability to leap taller, faster, and stronger college players, but he is nonetheless a big weapon that the Cats will have to contain.

In the trenches: Rice’s offensive line is smaller than ISU, which is a problem for them.  NU’s defensive line absolutely dominated the Redbirds’ front line and should do much of the same against the Owls.  Senior Scott Mitchell, who has been a starter since 2007 anchors the line at LT.

Overall Impression: There is no reason why the Wildcat defense should not be able to control this game.  But if the Cats are not able to put pressure on Fanuzzi, he will have time to find his tall receivers.  And McGuffie is the wildcard.  NU needs to do what they can to keep the ball away from him in space.

Intangibles: The weather will be an issue.  But it will be an issue for both teams.  Just because Rice is accustomed to the heat, does not mean that they are not affected by it.  The kicking game could also be a key.  NU has struggled with placekicking thus far; Rice’s kicker made to 50+ yard field goals last week.

Bottom Line: NU has not lost to a non-BCS team since their loss to Nevada in 2006.  I do not see it happening here.  Granted, this is the “type of game that the Cats lose,” as the cynics would say.  But the numbers just do not add up to an upset.  Rice will play tough.  But the Cats will continue to roll.

Cats win 31-13.

Go Cats!