Saturday, October 23, 2010 11:00 CST
Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois
 |
| Photo credit: hailtopurple.com |
Northwestern spent its bye week recovering from its first loss of the season and preparing for this big game against a ranked Michigan State team, who may be playing with more confidence than anyone in the country right now. This is the 51st meeting between the two schools. Michigan State leads the overall series 34-16 and has won six of eleven during the Expect Victory Era. Michigan State is 16-10 in Evanston and has not lost in Evanston since 2001.
Northwestern and Michigan State have produced some classic battles over the past 15 years, but has also produced some classic blowouts.
· 1997 NU defeats ranked MSU team on Anwawn Jones’ blocked FG; the Cats beat Nick Saban.
· 2001 NU beats MSU 27-26 in a wild finish after a fairly boring first 55 minutes; Victory Right II sets up the game winning FG.
· 2006 MSU makes largest comeback in NCAA Division I history, 35 points, to win 41-38.
· 2007 NU wins a shootout in East Lansing, 48-41.
Of the other seven matchups, none have been within 10 points, and four have been decided by more than 20.
Of the more intriguing matchups is NU’s passing game against the Spartan defense. Dan Persa ranks fourth in the nation in passing efficiency; Sparty is 2nd in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense, 17th in the nation.
Injury Report: The injury sheet is pretty clean for both teams. Vince Brown was cleared to play yesterday after practicing every day since Tuesday. For MSU, QB Kirk Cousins had tweaked his ankle against Illinois, but it appears that it will not keep him from playing. CB Chris Rucker continues to be held out by a team-imposed suspension for his “violation of team rules.” It has not yet been announced whether he will play Saturday.
Weather Report: Fans, this is not looking good. The big storm hitting Texas this morning is moving its way up to Chicago and looks like it will hit, well, at 11:00 CST tomorrow. 60% chance of T-Showers, high of 66. Bring your poncho. Check Weather.com for details.
When Northwestern has the Ball:
Players to watch…
 |
| Photo credit: sbnation.com |
Dan Persa: Persa’s performances have evolved from the shocking to the expected. In his last two games, he completed 75% of his passes and threw one interception; passing for 300+ yards in both games. Yet it was viewed as a “down” performance for both. Maybe perhaps because he was not quite as sharp against the faster Big Ten defenses. Well he will need to be sharp tomorrow as the Spartans bring a nasty defense. Up the middle they are very strong with highly-talented, veteran players. But if there is a weakness on the MSU defense, it is the corners. If Rucker does not play, Darqueze Dennard (true Frosh) and Johnny Adams (RS Soph) will have to cover NU’s talented receivers. And the backups in the secondary are just as young. NU’s multi receiver sets may be able to break some explosive plays against this defense….
 |
| Photo credit: rivals.com |
Greg Jones (LB): Unless Greg Jones has something to say about it. Jones is a monster of a linebacker who is probably the best defensive player in the Big Ten along with Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan. Jones had a season high 14 tackles against run-happy Illinois last week. But he only has one sack on the season, and four other tackles for loss. Whether this is the result of a scheme change by MSU, or blocking assignments by offenses is unknown. But NU will need to keep this guy out of the backfield if it wants to succeed. Jones does a nice job dropping back into coverage and may see some time covering Drake Dunsmore. He will be a terror that NU will have to contain, somehow.
 |
| Photo credit: bigtennetwork.com |
Jeremy Ebert: Ebert is very quietly having an All-Conference season (I think I led with that two weeks ago, sue me). He leads the conference in receiving yards and is 13th in the nation in yards per game. His 35 receptions is second in the conference to go along with his five touchdowns. MSU is going to need to gameplan around Ebert, which should open up some lanes for his teammates. If Ebert gets on an island against Dennard, it could be two thumbs up all day.
In the trenches: MSU, like Northwestern, rotates in six players regularly to make up its defensive front four. Its size and speed should be able to plug up running lanes against an NU rushing attack (is that really the right word) that has well-documented struggles. MSU only has ten sacks through seven games. NU’s Offensive line had trouble keeping Purdue Pete out of the backfield, which caused problems for Dan Persa, this will need to improve, and should, against a defense that will probably attack a little less.
Overall impression: If the offensive line can give Persa time to throw, NU’s offense can be very effective against a thin MSU secondary. MSU has only seen a truly effective passing game against Notre Dame, and did not do much to be able to stop that in keys points in the game. NU’s running game will continue to struggle, but the presence of the running back will keep Greg Jones and fellow linebacker Eric Gordon honest, which should be all Persa needs. The weather will really play a role in NU’s ability to move the ball, but a wet field generally favors route-running receivers as long as Persa can keep the ball dry enough to throw.
When Michigan State has the Ball:
Players to watch…
 |
| Photo credit: bleacherreport.com |
Kirk Cousins (QB): Cousins is still, somehow, only a Junior. He runs a solid pro-style offense, which is really the first time this NU defense has seen such a set. Cousins has 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, completing about 2/3 of his passes. He is well known for his leadership and his ability to spread the ball around to his weapons. He has big targets in Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham, who can test the NU secondary, and they will. Cousins has a bit of a tweaked ankle, which may affect his mobility especially on the wet turf. NU could score an early advantage by putting some pressure on Cousins and forcing some ill-advised throws. He is, at times, interception prone.
 |
| Photo credit: nusports.com |
Nate Williams: Williams has had a fairly quiet first half of the season, but I feel like he is finally ready to break out. He will be needed to stop the MSU running attack as Quentin Davie cannot do it himself. If the D-Line is being pushed off the ball, as it has in the last two weeks, Williams and the LBs will need to be patient and find the holes to stop the runners – as opposed to being caught in the mass of purple and green jerseys. Williams should also be called upon to play some coverage against TE Charlie Gantt.
 |
| Photo credit: fantake.com |
Edwin Baker and Le’veon Bell (RBs): MSUs two-headed monster at running back is as good of a tandem will see all year, and that includes Wisconsin. Both are young, fast, and capable of busting the big run. NU will have to be true to its schemes and contain these two guys. Otherwise, Kirk Cousins will not even need to throw the ball.
In the trenches: NU’s front four was manhandled Minnesota, giving up huge runs on first and second downs. Most of the game against Purdue, however, it appeared to improve, giving up the two big runs and a few scrambles – but otherwise shutting down the running game. For NU to have a chance to win, the front four need to continue to improve and get off the ball fast. If they spend the majority of the game being pushed backwards, it is going to a long wet afternoon.
Overall Impression: NU’s defense has not faced a pro-style offense all season, and quite frankly, it is built better to stop it. The Linebackers are still the best talent on this defense and the defense is better as whole when there are more LBs on the field. The secondary will get beat by a few play action plays, but as long as they do not lead to some big touchdowns, this game should stay close. MSU offense can be a little inconsistent, but can score in bunches as Illinois and Michigan saw in the last two weeks. NU will take its punches, but will have to counter in order to be in this game.
Intangibles: Where do I begin? How about the most obvious. Michigan State fans have been talking for two weeks that if they beat Iowa (October 30) they are going to the Rose Bowl. This game is an afterthought to the fan base. The key will be whether the players have bought into their own hype or whether the coaching staff has kept them grounded. Dantonio’s efforts to coach from the field may help that.
NU has had two weeks to prepare for this game and is 10-1 after its last 11 losses (8-0 after last 8 Big Ten losses). Fitz should have the team focused and hopefully will avoid the comedy of errors that have plagued the team over the last three weeks. Ara Parseghian should be able to give an emotional boost, even if the players do not know who he is. Homecoming game – this will be a fun one.
Bottom Line: As I begin to write this paragraph, I am still not certain how it will end. NU is becoming the sexy pick for the upset of the week nationally; and that makes me uncomfortable. From a talent standpoint, NU is on par with MSU. But from a confidence standpoint, MSU is flying sky high, while NU has suffered through penalties, mental mistakes, turnovers, and special teams’ mishaps – all of which will be magnified by the poor weather. NU will need to force a turnover or two, preferably early to get their heads on strait. NU has played in 22 consecutive game where it has held a lead or been tied in the fourth quarter, sadly, I think that the streak ends tomorrow. The game remains close, but NU is unable to get the drive it needs in the fourth.
Cats lose 21-24.
Go Cats! Prove me wrong.
No comments:
Post a Comment