Saturday, October 30, 2010 11:00 CST (Big Ten Network)
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| Photo Credit: iub.edu |
Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana
Northwestern is coming off a heartbreaking loss, but also its best performance of the season. The team enters tomorrow’s game with a great deal of confidence after playing so well against one of the best teams in the nation. IU is coming off a humbling 43-13 loss to Illinois, which left the team looking for answers. Northwestern is 43-34-1 all time against Indiana, including 8-3 in the Expect Victory Era. The only losses came in 1999, 2001, and 2008 – all in Bloomington. Both teams bring very talented quarterbacks to the game; but NU has a major advantage on the defensive side of the ball. IU is not known for packing their stadium, so there could be a very low attendance figure tomorrow. If NU sends a contingent the size of what went to Nashville, it could be a pretty vocal group.
Injury Report: Jacob Schmidt is listed as questionable with the ankle injury that took him out of the MSU game last week. He was still listed as the starter on the two-deep released on Tuesday. But all signs point to Trumpy and Adonis Smith getting most of the carries again.
Indiana has had a rash of injuries, maybe not as prominent as Purdue, but probably more devastating. First, Darius Willis (RB) was injured a few weeks back and is out for the season. Willis took over the first quarter of the IU-NU game last year on the way to opening up a 28-3 lead. Nick Turner (RB) is one of the backs seeing time in his absence but is questionable with a concussion that forced him to sit out the Illinois game. The Hoosiers will be down to their third-string right tackle after the Knee injury to Josh Hager (OT), who is now out for the season. Junior DB Lenyatta Kiles is questionable with a groin injury. TE Max Desmond is out with a knee injury. Thanks to College Injury Report.com for the injury report.
Weather Report: Beautiful day for fall football. High of 57, with just a light wind. Keep up to date with Weather.com
When Northwestern has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Dan Persa: MSU began to unlock the mystery of Dan Persa in the fourth quarter last week – and how teams are able to copy this defense, and more importantly how NU responds, will be the key to the rest of NU’s season. After Persa had a pretty good first three quarters (16-22), MSU switched to a zero down-lineman set, instead lining up five blitzing linebackers and six DBs. The pressure coming from all angles took the Cats by surprise and on the last three drives, the Cats had no answer. Teams cannot run this set when the run is a possibility, because the O-Line would steamroll a bunch of linebackers starting from a standing position. So getting the lead and keeping it will help to avoid this fate. Also, keeping a back in the backfield to both threaten the run, and to help block, will keep this set at bay as well. Moreso, if Persa can audible into a QB draw even when there are five wide, he could break a huge run against this set. I would expect IU to try to employ this against Persa at least a few times, but I also think that NU will have made its adjustments as well.
Tyler Replogle (LB): This senior co-captain is making his 18th career start for the Hoosiers, which is second only to his brother, Adam, an IU defensive lineman. So the defense is pretty inexperienced. But Replogle can be a force on the strong side. He leads the team with 50 tackles but has no sacks. He may be called upon to pick up Dunsmore on occasion, and does have one pick on the season. More than anything Tyler is going to need to be a leader of a defense that has a lot of seniors (nine starting) but not a lot of experience.
Adonis Smith: The Adonis Smith Era began in Evanston last week, as this freshman back made good headway against a stingy MSU run defense. IU is pretty strong against the run as well, statistically. But Smith’s size and speed should enable him to make some headway. Fitz has played pretty close to the cuff on how he intends to use his back this Saturday. But it is hard to believe that Smith is not going to see at least the carries that he saw last week, if not more.
In the trenches: Indiana has two rather short defensive ends (Darius Johnson 6’0” and Terrance Thomas 6’1”), which should play a major advantage against NU’s rather large tackles. But the interior line of Indiana is pretty large and powerful and has contributed to IU’s success against the run. IU only has eight sacks so far this season, and that includes some pretty weak non-conference opponents. That should be a nice reprieve for an NU offensive line that has been abused the last two games.
Overall impression: NU has scored first in all seven of its games. The offense certainly operates better when it can control the tempo and play calling, as opposed to when game situations force them to throw. IU’s defense has given up 34 points or more in each of the last four games, including Arkansas State. NU, for once, has an experience edge on offense and should be able to use that to its advantage.
When Indiana has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Ben Chappell (QB): Chappell is IU’s all everything quarterback, who is approaching all-time team records in any number of categories. He is smart and accurate and is fourth in the country in passing yards per game. If he can channel his inner Kirk Cousins, he will be a nightmare for an NU secondary that got absolutely wasted by the MSU receivers last week. Chappell will need to have a big game in order for IU to win, but if the IU line can give him time to throw, there is no reason to think that he will not have a big game.
Bryce McNaul: McNaul had a great game against MSU last week, recording 10 tackles and career highs in basically everything else. Bryce forced the fumble which was MSU’s only turnover of the game. He missed a lot of time in the first half of the season because of injury, but is really coming on as a playmaker for the defense. He will need to be responsible for putting a lot of the pressure on Chappell, as well as shutting down the already sputtering IU running game.
Tandon Doss (WR): Every good quarterback needs a stud receiver and Tandon Doss is that guy. Doss leads the nation in all-purpose-yards per game, which includes his yards as a very dangerous kick and punt returner. NU will be well-suited to put Jordan Mabin on Doss regardless of where he lines up, as this guy has the ability to absolutely school Vaughn and Bolden. Doss keeps me up at night.
In the trenches: NU somehow managed to contain the MSU rushing attack, which is primarily the reason that the Cats stayed in the game so long. IU’s offensive line is a good size, not overly impressive, but has only given up seven sacks this year. Chappell is shifty, but not a running quarterback. So NU should be able to get some pressure on him with some blitzes. But I would not expect the IU running game to be a factor.
Overall Impression: NU goes back to defending the spread offense which has given them fits this year. Chappell will need to have a great game, however, and avoid costly turnovers. IU will throw the ball A LOT – I would expect 50-60 throws. So the NU secondary better eat its breakfast; this could be a shootout.
Intangibles: I would be remiss if I did not talk about the return game here. As mentioned, Tandon Doss is one of the most dangerous in the nation and could break one at any time. NU has announced that Venric Mark has earned the starting job (officially this time) as both kick and punt returner. While a track meet between these two would be exciting, it is hardly what NU wants out of this game. But I would not be surprised if one or both of them found themselves in the end zone on a special teams touchdown.
Bottom Line: Persa scores another large game this week as he will have more time to pass and an inexperienced secondary to pick apart. Adonis Smith, Venric Mark, T.J. Jones, and Rashad Lawrence are all picking up the offense at just the right time as they should be able to flash their speed against a defense that will be a step slower than they have seen in the last few weeks. Indiana will score some points, but the lack of a legitimate rushing threat will be their un-doing.
Cats win 37-21.
Go Cats!
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