Saturday, October 2, 2010 11:00 CST
TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| ||
Northwestern won its seventh consecutive regular season game last Saturday, its longest streak since 1996 – and has yet to trail at any point in any game. Minnesota lost its third straight, but has some statistics that will keep you up at night. Both teams kick off Big Ten play on Saturday, the 16th time that NU has opened its conference schedule. Minnesota leads the all-time series 50-30-5; NU leads the series 6-5 in the Expect Victory Era. Minnesota won last year’s game in a see-saw affair, 35-24. NU won the last matchup in Minneapolis 24-17. This game matches two of the top fifteen teams in the nation in time of possession (Minn is 2nd; NU is 15th). Something will have to give in that department. Additionally, both teams are exceedingly proficient in forcing turnovers.
Injury Report: Safeties David Arnold (foot) and Jared Carpenter (back) are both listed as doubtful, despite practicing both Wednesday and Thursday. Neither is listed on the two-deep. Hunter Bates has played really well in their absence; but the depth at Safety could be an issue against the veteran QB Weber. Freshman wideout Tony Jones (shoulder) is still out, and he is at the point where he could be looking at a medical redshirt. Otherwise, this is the cleanest injury report the Cats have seen all year.
For Minnesota, they have played all year without last year’s starting safety Kim Royston (leg), one of only two returning starters on the Gopher defense. Kick Returner Troy Stoudermire is suspended and will not play. He is a weapon on special teams.
As always, thanks to College Injury Report.com for the 411.
Weather: Should be an absolutely beautiful day for football. Forecast calls for 55 degrees with no chance of rain. The slight wind, 11 MPH, should not be a factor. Click here for the Weather.com forecast.
When Northwestern has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Dan Persa: When reading up on this game, one statistic jumps off the page. Persa is 2nd in the nation is passing efficiency; while Minnesota is 113th in passing efficiency defense. If that is not a mismatch, nothing is. A little education here; passing efficiency is an effort to judge all around statistics – not just yards and touchdowns, which is perfect for this comparison. Minnesota’s passing defense is 60th from a yardage standpoint, but when you lose three games, teams are probably running more. The passing efficiency statistic is more telling about what should happen when NU does elect to throw. Minnesota has only one returning starter in the secondary and starts two freshmen; so you can imagine the experience level in the backups. Minnesota will either have to put less skilled players on Dunsmore and the slot receivers, or risk having their more experienced linebackers cover the pass. Either way, if the running game does not work out, Persa should have no problem moving the ball through the air.
 |
Photo credit: gophersports.com |
Jewhan Edwards (DT): The junior DT ranks fourth in the Big Ten in tackles for loss with 5.5 and is a force on the defensive line. This inexperienced line has no returning starters but Edwards is the leader. At 6’2” 330 he is a monster who can fill up holes in a hurry. While not really a pass rusher, Minnesota’s ability to stop the run will depend on the play of Edwards. If he comes to play against the Cats, it will be a key factor in the Gophers’ ability to pull off the upset.
Mike Trumpy: Not gonna lie; when I wrote this column last week, I never thought I would be writing about Mike Trumpy today. But his play in the second half against CMU inspired the coaching staff to give his the “co-starter” position at tailback. And not alongside Arby Fields, mind you, but with Jacob Schmidt. Trumpy’s 5 yards per carry last week was one of the better tailback performances that NU fans have seen since Tyrell Sutton. The tailbacks have been talking all week about Minnesota’s run defense, which is giving up 188 yards per game and last week gave up 223 yards to NIU’s Chad Spann. If Trumpy can break out and become the feature back for the Cats, it will add an entirely new, and needed, element to the offense.
In the trenches: Minnesota’s defensive line is large, but that is about it. With the exception of speedy pass rusher D.L Wilhite (6’3” 245), they measure 330, 296, and 300 across the line. But the team has only registered two sacks and has been anemic against the run. The running stats would likely be worse if the Gophers were not 2nd in the nation in time of possession. Trumpy and Schmidt showed last week that the running woes may not be the problem of the NU running game – or at least that this veteran offensive line is beginning to finally gel. It has given up too many sacks, but other than that the Cats front four should have their way with Minnesota’s gentle giants.
Overall impression: The numbers game simply adds up to a lot of points for the Wildcats: eight returning starters vs. one; top passing attack vs. one of the worst; running game about to break out vs. big slow defensive line. The only turning point in this matchup is Minnesota’s ability to turn the ball over, and their opportunities to keep Persa off the field. Otherwise, another 30-point performance is certainly in the cards for the Wildcats.
When Minnesota has the Ball:
Players to watch…
 |
Photo credit: picsdigger.com |
Adam Weber (QB): Weber is my recipient of the 2010 Carlos Huerta award for the player that seems like he has been around forever. He is Minnesota’s all-time leader in everything, but in 3-plus years has only won 15 games. A lot of signs pointed to a regression in 2009 after a fantastic 2008 season. But the pressure on the job is off as former backup QB MarQuis Gray has been converted to wide receiver. Weber has the ability to make plays and has a veteran offensive line to protect him. What he does not have is Eric Decker – and that has been obvious thus far this season. Weber should have a typical day of 65% passing for 260 and 2 TDs, but it will take something spectacular out of him to win his 16th game tomorrow.
Vince Browne: Northwestern’s Vince Browne has been a quiet leader of what is becoming a very strong defensive front. Tomorrow he gets to feast on freshman left tackle Ed Olson. Attacking Weber’s blind side should register at least one sack and a great deal of pressure. Browne is starting his 18th game for the Cats and is finally getting some of the recognition that he deserves. Look for Vince to have a big game Saturday.
Photo credit: gophersports.com
Duane Bennett (RB): This junior speedster has stepped into the starting role at running back and has already surpassed his rushing total from 2009. He is seventh in the Big Ten in rushing at 92.8 yards per game and might be the best tailback the Cats have seen yet this year. The Cats have been very stout against the run, giving up only 76 yards against CMU; they rank 33rd in the country. Bennett will need to be a factor for the Gophers. Weber’s passing game will be the primary way of moving the ball, but Bennett will still need to get the yards when they need them.
In the trenches: This might be one of the better matchups of the game. Minnesota returns four starters on the offensive line, although starts one freshman. NU’s defensive line has been the most impressive unit for the Cats this season, excepting Dan Persa. What NU has over the Gophers in this matchup is depth. The ability to bring in Quentin Williams and Mufali late in the game as fresh legs will be the difference maker.
Overall Impression: There are a lot of veterans on the field when Minnesota has the ball. But the Gophers will need to play flawlessly to make up for its holes on defense. If they can keep the level of ball control steady (35 minutes per game), they may be able to have a chance. They cannot afford sacks or turnovers. The Wildcat defense has been playing with a lot of confidence, though, and that has overcome the holes in the secondary. The only problem has been finishing all 60 minutes. But if the Cat defense plays the entire game, this could be a beatdown.
Intangibles: Minnesota plays before its homecoming crowd in a must win game for Tim Brewster’s job. They have a quarterback who is comfortable and a veteran offense capable of scoring. NU is on a major high right now; they have been in the lead or tied in the fourth quarter for 20 consecutive games – so they have to believe that they can win every game. But NU will have to avoid the penalties and costly mistakes that almost cost them the CMU game. Special teams could be a key: NU’s Punter Brandon Williams is 28th in the country in yardage; NU’s ability to stop field goals and extra points has been the scoring difference in two of its games.
Bottom Line: NU will have its scoring opportunities and they will not pass them up. Minnesota will be efficient on offense and will test the NU secondary. NU will turn the tides on Minnesota and win both the turnover and the time of possession battle. The running game will improve for NU, but not be the breakout everyone is expecting. In the end, Mick McCall will turn to his bread and butter and let Persa air it out. Once that happens, we will see a typical Wildcats third quarter (outscoring opponents 31-9 this year) and a comfortable finish.
Cats win 37-20.
Go Cats!
No comments:
Post a Comment