Saturday, October 9, 2010 6:30 CST (Big Ten Network)
Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois
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| Photo credit: northwestern.edu |
Northwestern trailed for the first time all season last week at Minnesota, but in the end completed a eight-point fourth quarter comeback with a Stephan Demos field goal to clinch the win. Purdue had the week off, which helped them recover from a bad loss to Toledo and prepare for a strong challenge at Northwestern, Saturday. Purdue leads thee overall series against Northwestern 49-27-1. Purdue has a 6-9 edge in the Expect Victory Era in a streaky series: NU has won the last two, Purdue two before that, NU two before that, Purdue seven before that… NU looks to win its third straight and its second strait at home against the Boilermakers.
Injury Report: For Northwestern, the injury report is pretty clean this week. Backup cornerback Jeravin Matthews will not play, which will create some weakness in the secondary. Dunsmore will play despite getting his knee rolled up on against Minnesota.
Purdue’s injury situation has been well documented. QB Robert Marve is out for the year; the Big Ten’s third leading rusher in 2009, Ralph Bolden is out for the year; All-American Candidate WR Kevin Smith is out for the year; WR Justin Siller is out for the NU game; RB Al-Terek McBurse (Toe) is questionable. That is a lot of skill position players to lose, and the offense has struggled as a result.
Weather: Absolutely perfect. 78 degrees, no chance of rain, light wind. Should cool off once the sun goes down. Enjoy the tailgating. Check the Weather.com forecast here.
When Northwestern has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Dan Persa: Dan demonstrated a great deal of leadership against Minnesota, and showed Cat fans that he has all of the moxie of his predecessors. His ability to pass and run is becoming a major challenge for opposing defenses. Minnesota played a lot of zone and created coverage issues; so Persa just ran for 99 yards. Purdue has had two weeks to work on a wrinkle for how to stop Persa, we will see how they did. Purdue’s secondary is very green and starts a freshman and a sophomore at corner. Also, much like last week Persa, one of the nations leaders in passing efficiency will take on the 94th ranked defense in that category (Minnesota was 113th). Expect Dan to air it our under the lights, if he can find time to throw…
Ryan Kerrigan (DE): Kerrigan is the best defensive player that you have never heard of. His 6’4” – 263 frame is nearly the prototype for that position. He has speed and power and will give Ward and Netter fits all game, depending on which side of the line he sets up. NU will need to double-team him for most of the game. Look for the Cats to use the superback to put a little chip on him before running his route. Through four games, Kerrigan has 22 solo tackles, 12 for loss (TWELVE!), including 4.5 sacks. He has also forced three fumbles. On a team without a lot of bright spots in the first third of the season, Kerrigan has shined like the sun.
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| Photo credit: indystar.com |
Jacob Schmidt: Schmidt officially is the starting tailback for the Cats on Saturday. Even though 99 yards came from Persa, the Cats had more rushing yards Saturday than any Big Ten game last season. Persa and Schmidt run the option very well, and while it did not work every time, the pitch to Schmidt on the touchdown last week was run almost perfectly. Schmidt will have a heavy charge with Kerrigan breathing down his neck, but the Wildcat run game may be able to use some of Kerrigan’s aggressiveness to their advantage and break the option for some big plays.
In the trenches: With the exception of Kerrigan, Purdue’s D-Line is very similar to what Cat fans saw against Minnesota: two large men at DT and a small quick DE in Junior Gerald Gooden. NU’s offensive line continues to show improvement every week. But this will be their biggest challenge to date. If they can shift coverage effectively, toward Kerrigan on passing downs and run away from him on running downs, the Wildcat offense should continue to move very efficiently.
Overall impression: Kerrigan is a playmaker, but he is not enough to make up for the holes in the rest of the defense. NU is an offense that is just reaching its stride. While there were three turnovers, NU only punted once last week. Purdue may have a little more success, but if NU can hold onto the ball, a point total in the high 30s is not out of the question.
When Purdue has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Rob Henry (QB): Purdue’s redshirt freshman signal-caller was thrust into this position after Robert Marve went down for the season. He has appeared in all four games for the Boilers, has just above a 50% completion percentage, with two TDs and one pick. But most impressive is the 5.4 yards per carry on 31 rushing attempts. With players like Robinson, Pryor and even Persa in the Big Ten, Henry is very much overlooked as a running threat. The Cats certainly cannot afford to overlook him. But with such a lack of weapons elsewhere on the field, NU should have no problem shutting him down.
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| Photo credit: purduesports.com |
David Arnold: Arnold is finally at 100% and played in his first match last week at Minnesota. He immediately made an impact with a six-tackle performance. He is not the starter at safety, but Hank’s defensive scheme will often bring Arnold (think Brendan Smith) in as a hybrid safety-linebacker. Arnold’s versatility should be able to create confusion in the mind of the inexperienced Henry. Look for Arnold to have a large game.
The Player to be Named Later (??): OK, so maybe this is a cop out. But the fact is that Purdue has no chance in this game unless someone steps up as the playmaker on offense. Will it be Dan Dierking, their leading rusher (51 ypg) or Gary Bush, the freshman wideout? Will Kyle Admas, the fifth-year senior TE breakout; or will Cortez Smith tear up the Wildcat secondary. Either way, the Purdue offense cannot simply depend on Henry to win the game. Someone in this group will have to step up if Purdue wants to make a game of this.
In the trenches: Purdue’s offensive line is large and experienced. They all weigh in at 300+ and are lead by fifth-year senior Justin Pierce. The weak point is sophomore center Peters Drey. NU’s defensive line kept pass pressure on Weber last week, but was absolutely beaten off the ball on the majority of the Gophers run plays. If Purdue can have similar success, they can play a ball control game and stay in the match. But ball control is not exactly Purdue’s style.
Overall Impression: If NU gets an early lead, this thing is over as Purdue simply does not have the talent to throw the ball without making mistakes. NU’s pass defense is a bit of a weakness, but they should have a better game against the inexperienced Purdue passing game. NU did not record a sack or a turnover until the last seven minutes of the game against Minnesota. They should be more aggressive and more successful on Saturday.
Intangibles: Other than being their first Big Ten game, there are not a lot of intangibles in Purdue’s favor. Their coach’s job is safe, their season is in the muck already, and they are not yet to the point in the season of “they have nothing to lose”. NU will be playing before a rocking Ryan Field with a crowd full of marathon tailgaters and a full student section. Recruits are on campus and they are recognizing the 2000 Championship team. Lots of Purple Pride on Saturday.
Bottom Line: Henry is just dangerous enough that the Cats will have to sweat out the first half. Maybe within a touchdown at halftime. But the Cats will continue their domination of the third quarter. I see a special teams touchdown to electrify the crowd. The defense will finally play a whole game and stymie the Boilers late efforts to get back in the game.
Cats win 37-17.
Go Cats!
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