Minnesota and Michigan State Previews

It’s a two-a-day today for EVR.  Here are the previews for the final two games of the season.

Minnesota – November 19, 2011 – Ryan Field.  While Northwestern and Minnesota have had fairly divergent records over the last four years, the game has always been a hard fought battle.  From the double-overtime thriller in 2007 – to the pick-six to end the game in 2008 – to Demos winning the game in 2010.  In 2011, the cold of November will likely have set in on one of these teams, and the other will be trying to play someplace warm in the post-season.  Minnesota brings new coach Jerry Kill, who is coming off a series of successful seasons at Northern Illinois. But will he be able to make a first-year impact in a very strong Legends Division?

ESPN.com

At quarterback, MarQueis Gray finally gets the opportunity to be the starter after years of patiently waiting behind Adam Weber.  Gray is a multi-talented QB, who will be lost in the conversation behind Persa, Robinson, and Martinez – but is no less talented.  Gray’s problem will be a young offensive line that returns only two starters.  He may be called upon to use his mobility too much – thus risking injury and hampering the opportunity to get the ball to his number one guy, Da’Jon McKnight. 

The Gophers running game is led by one of the most experienced backs in the conference – Duane Bennett.  Bennett has 24 starts under his belt and almost 2,300 yards of total offense and 19 touchdowns under his belt.  Duane is a speedy back who can also pound for yards.  If the offensive line has come together by the NU game, he will be a force for NU’s defense to deal with, especially if the November weather is bad.

Defensively, the Gophers return eight starters including all three linebackers.  But this is a unit that will have to demonstrate great improvement from last year.  Every Minnesota opponent except for two scored more than 28 points and while the Gophers should have a fairly dynamic offense, it cannot be counted on to score four touchdowns every game.  Corners Michael Carter and Troy Stoudermire fought their way into the starting lineup last season and have earned their positions.

Michigan State – November 26, 2011 – Ryan Field.  Based on some rough research, NU has not hosted on on-campus game after Thanksgiving since a 1989.  Illinois thrashed the Wildcats that day 63-14.  In fact, NU has not won a game played on Thanksgiving or later, including Bowl games, since 1973.  Hopefully the visit by the Spartans will end this drought. Thanks to a scheduling quirk, the Cats will host Sparty for the second year in a row – after the heartbreaking loss to then-undefeated MSU in 2010.

spartan-football.com

Michigan State brings to the table the most solid unit of offensive playmakers in the Big Ten.  Kirk Cousins is an All-Big Ten candidate and a natural leader.  Edwin Baker is a speedy back that can do it all.  Keshawn Martin and B.J. Cunningham are both seniors who have 19 career touchdowns between them.  Dion Sims is the latest in a line of solid tight ends to play for the green and white. 

If there is a weakness on the offense it is on the line, and there is cause for concern there.  Their current two deep starts two freshmen including an undersized center Travis Jackson (6’3” / 265).  Skyler Burkland, the other frosh, and sophomore Dan France will bookend the line at tackle and will be in charge of protecting Cousins in the passing game.  The only senior in the group is guard Joel Foreman.  If MSU is going to go to the heights that their fan base expects in 2010, this group will need to grow up fast.

Similarly, the defense has youth and holes to fill.  They only plan to start one senior on a defense that was dominant at times – including holding Michigan to 17 points and Illinois to 6.  Sophomore Denicos Allen steps in at middle linebacker, not completely green, as he recorded 18 tackles last season.  Fellow sophomores William Gholston (DL), Max Bullough (OLB) and Darqueze Dennard (CB) lead the youth movement on this squad.  The youth may cause some problems for the Spartans, but the dynamic offense should be able to keep games close.  And these young guys may not be experienced, but they will be aggressive playmakers who are looking to not let down their senior-laden offense.

Keep in mind that if Nebraska struggles in its new place in the Big Ten, this could be a play-in game for the Big Ten Championship game.

Go Cats!

Michigan State; the Aftermath

There is a reason that I did not post my typical Sunday Morning Superback yesterday morning.  I could blame the travel back from Chicago, which always puts a nice 6 ½ hour crimp in the day.  I could blame the fact that I was visiting friends and did not want to spend that much time lost in my thoughts and my pain.  I could blame sleeping in, or the fact that my laptop is on the fritz.  All of which are true.

The fact is that it has taken me this long to determine a theme for this piece.  The Cats played their best game of the year against the best team on their schedule, but in the end a turnover, a special teams gaff, and a penalty continued to be the shortcomings of a team on the brink.  The running game played great, but Persa had his worst game passing and could not lead the necessary drive at the end.  Demos redeemed himself, and we saw great play out of the freshmen.  But Jacob Schmidt, Jordan Mabin, and Al Netter made awful mistakes. 

I have read a dozen articles about this game.  Many of them point to the fake punt as the key play of the game.  Others point to Cousin’s leadership in leading his team on fourth quarter scoring drives.  Most of them admire Persa’s gritty play during the game, yet fault his inability to make the pass in the clutch. 

But there was one headline that I read that truly sums up the game.  Simple; to the point; and appropriate for the occasion.

Northwestern Blows 17-Point Lead to MSU

And really, that is all you need to know.  This is not about a fake punt; it is not about the wind; it is not about a personal four penalty, or a fumble on the goal line.  It is about the inability of a team to close out a three-score lead against a better team.  A complete team fail from the 6:00 mark of the second quarter until Persa through his fatal pick.

Now, this is not to say that Cat fans did not witness some great things in that span.  NU had some great answers and played inspired football.  But the last 36 minutes of the game was a slow erosion of everything that the first 24 minutes had built up.  And in the end, the game was just eight minutes too long.

The feeling of this game brings me back to a trio of games in the 2007 season.  NU had fourth quarter leads against Michigan, Purdue, and Iowa – before losing by double digits to each one of them.  At the time, NU and Fitz were struggling to find an identity and were muddling through a 6-6 season.  Each of these games was an opportunity to show that the Cats belong in the middle of the conference fray – but that they were not quite there yet.

On Saturday, the Cats had another opportunity to make a major statement it the conference.  By knocking off Sparty, NU could legitimately make a run at the Big Ten Title.  It could show the nation that it was not just good for a few upsets now and then, but that it could stand toe to toe and beat some of the best talent in the country.  But the fourth quarter came, and once again, we found that the Cats are not quite there yet.

But as heartbreaking as this game was, there is great hope.  Rather than dwelling on the negatives, there are a plethora of building blocks set in this game.  The Cats are still in a position to have a special season, if they can pick their heads up and play their game for the next month.  Here is what to be hopeful about, and what still needs work.

Dan Persa had, statistically, his worst game of the year.  But a look inside the numbers shows that for the first three and a half quarters, he played strong, smart, and efficiently.  With 8:30 to go in the game, MSU punted the ball out of bounds at the 50.  NU was up 27-21.  Persa, at that point was 16-22 for 180 yards and no picks; along with 81 positive yards rushing (albeit seven sacks against that).  Everyone knew that with the wind at their backs, the Cats needed about 20 yards to really seal the game.  But MSU brought in a 0-5-6 defense on passing downs and dared the Cats to throw.  From then on, Persa was 2 for 7 for 7 yards and a pick.  The improved rushing game will help, but MSU gave the league a blueprint on how to stop the Cats on passing downs.  McCall and Persa will need to respond.  Dan is still the nation’s most accurate passer, but the noose around him is tightening.  On the other hand, his runs were downright amazing.  Persa wanted this game, badly.  But when he is the only person to find the end zone in the last two games, it is not hard to see why the Cats are 0-2 in that stretch.

Adonis Smith and the running game was a pleasant surprise.  For two weeks, NU coaches, players, media, and fans were in an eternal gridlock about the run-pass ratio.  In the end, Coach Fitz went with a pretty even mix (once you account for sacks as pass plays, but counted as runs) and completely ignored his 30,000 offensive coordinators.  Trumpy went 10 for 50; Smith went 10 for 44 and was really the star of the show.  Mark took an end around for 29 yards, which, sadly, was the longest NU run since 2008.  Again, if you remove Persa’s sacks, the Cats averaged 4.4 yards per carry, or 1.2 more than the season average.  The Cats controlled the line when they were running the ball, against a very stingy run defense.  If this is a sign of things to come, there should be a lot of excitement about the run game.  But it needed to stay consistent down the stretch.  In the critical drive mentioned above, the Cats ran for one yard on first down, and then did not run again all game.  Balance only works when you stay consistent with it.  But there are a lot of things to build on.  Including a 2012 recruit, who committed to the Cats after leaving Ryan Field Saturday. Welcome Malin Jones to the Wildcat Family.

Freshman offensive weapons, however, were the most impressive and most promising aspect of this game.  Smith and Mark were mentioned above.  In addition to his long run, he singlehandedly increased the Cats punt return average from 4.9 yards to 7.0 yards per return.  Rashad Lawrence also had a four catch game, for 67 yards.  These are the building blocks for the Cats future – and that is very exciting.

The Offensive Line had their hands full with the Michigan State defensive front.  But for the most part, they performed admirably.   No one would have expected NU to have so much success running the ball.  Some of that was the change of pace created by Adonis.  But the O-Line was beating Sparty off the ball all game long.  Problem was, the opposite occurred on passing downs, as Dan was constantly scrambling, throwing on the run, and in the end, eating turf.  It really is amazing that he had the stats that he had.  In the end, the O-Line’s inability to give Persa enough time to throw, and their inability to keep their hands out of players face masks, put a halt to the Cats’ offensive game plan.

The Run Defense, for all of the props given to the Cats’ running game, the run defense really stole the show, at least for most of the game.  Through three quarters, MSU had only 69 yards rushing, 22 of which was on the end around by Fowler.  NU owned the line of scrimmage, and should be commended.  It is clear that the front four plays much better against a pro-style offense.  Which explains the success against Iowa and Wisconsin in previous years.

The Pass Defense.  MSU was 11-15 for 144 yards passing in the fourth quarter.  This is really the only stat you need to know.  This was a pass defense that played “bend-but-don’t-break” ball all season.  Well, in the final stanza Saturday, they broke.  They had held Cousins to a pedestrian 19-29 for 208 yards through three quarters, but made him look like Joe Montana in the end.  Stanzi and Tolzien will be licking their chops if this crew does not improve, not to mention Ben Chappel next week.

Special Teams.  The much maligned unit last week came through this week.  Demos was perfect, including a nice kick into a driving wind in quarter #2.  The punt and kickoff teams were effective, both kicking and returning.  And with the exception of some problems with the wind, had no mishaps.  A nice improvement.

But in the end, this game will be remembered for the fake punt.  The national media, many of whom clearly did not see the game, portrayed this as the biggest play of the game.  And not to down play its importance, but it was with 14 minutes left (so hardly critical), the Cats came right back and scored (so hardly a backbreaker), and MSU went three-and-out on the next drive (so the momentum shift was minimal).  Would NU have won the game were it not for the fake punt.  No one knows.  But would anyone be talking about the 4^th and 1 that MSU converted with 14 minutes left had they just run the ball instead?  Unlikely.

Instead, the true legacy of this game was the inability for NU to continue to move the ball.  The three and out possession at midfield will be remembered by this team for a long time as the one that got away.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com

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http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Game Preview: #8 Michigan State (7-0) (3-0) at Northwestern (5-1) (1-1)

Saturday, October 23, 2010 11:00 CST

Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois

Photo credit: hailtopurple.com

Northwestern spent its bye week recovering from its first loss of the season and preparing for this big game against a ranked Michigan State team, who may be playing with more confidence than anyone in the country right now.  This is the 51^st meeting between the two schools.  Michigan State leads the overall series 34-16 and has won six of eleven during the Expect Victory Era.  Michigan State is 16-10 in Evanston and has not lost in Evanston since 2001.

Northwestern and Michigan State have produced some classic battles over the past 15 years, but has also produced some classic blowouts. 

·         1997 NU defeats ranked MSU team on Anwawn Jones’ blocked FG; the Cats beat Nick Saban.

·         2001 NU beats MSU 27-26 in a wild finish after a fairly boring first 55 minutes; Victory Right II sets up the game winning FG.

·         2006 MSU makes largest comeback in NCAA Division I history, 35 points, to win 41-38.

·         2007 NU wins a shootout in East Lansing, 48-41.

Of the other seven matchups, none have been within 10 points, and four have been decided by more than 20.

Of the more intriguing matchups is NU’s passing game against the Spartan defense.  Dan Persa ranks fourth in the nation in passing efficiency; Sparty is 2^nd in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense, 17^th in the nation.

Injury Report: The injury sheet is pretty clean for both teams.  Vince Brown was cleared to play yesterday after practicing every day since Tuesday.  For MSU, QB Kirk Cousins had tweaked his ankle against Illinois, but it appears that it will not keep him from playing.  CB Chris Rucker continues to be held out by a team-imposed suspension for his “violation of team rules.”  It has not yet been announced whether he will play Saturday.

Weather Report: Fans, this is not looking good.  The big storm hitting Texas this morning is moving its way up to Chicago and looks like it will hit, well, at 11:00 CST tomorrow.  60% chance of T-Showers, high of 66.  Bring your poncho. Check Weather.com for details.

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Photo credit: sbnation.com

Dan Persa: Persa’s performances have evolved from the shocking to the expected.  In his last two games, he completed 75% of his passes and threw one interception; passing for 300+ yards in both games.  Yet it was viewed as a “down” performance for both. Maybe perhaps because he was not quite as sharp against the faster Big Ten defenses.  Well he will need to be sharp tomorrow as the Spartans bring a nasty defense.  Up the middle they are very strong with highly-talented, veteran players.  But if there is a weakness on the MSU defense, it is the corners.  If Rucker does not play, Darqueze Dennard (true Frosh) and Johnny Adams (RS Soph) will have to cover NU’s talented receivers.  And the backups in the secondary are just as young.  NU’s multi receiver sets may be able to break some explosive plays against this defense….



Photo credit: rivals.com



Greg Jones (LB): Unless Greg Jones has something to say about it.  Jones is a monster of a linebacker who is probably the best defensive player in the Big Ten along with Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan.  Jones had a season high 14 tackles against run-happy Illinois last week.  But he only has one sack on the season, and four other tackles for loss.  Whether this is the result of a scheme change by MSU, or blocking assignments by offenses is unknown.  But NU will need to keep this guy out of the backfield if it wants to succeed.  Jones does a nice job dropping back into coverage and may see some time covering Drake Dunsmore.  He will be a terror that NU will have to contain, somehow.

Photo credit: bigtennetwork.com

Jeremy Ebert: Ebert is very quietly having an All-Conference season (I think I led with that two weeks ago, sue me).  He leads the conference in receiving yards and is 13^th in the nation in yards per game.  His 35 receptions is second in the conference to go along with his five touchdowns.  MSU is going to need to gameplan around Ebert, which should open up some lanes for his teammates.  If Ebert gets on an island against Dennard, it could be two thumbs up all day.

In the trenches: MSU, like Northwestern, rotates in six players regularly to make up its defensive front four.  Its size and speed should be able to plug up running lanes against an NU rushing attack (is that really the right word) that has well-documented struggles.  MSU only has ten sacks through seven games.  NU’s Offensive line had trouble keeping Purdue Pete out of the backfield, which caused problems for Dan Persa, this will need to improve, and should, against a defense that will probably attack a little less.

Overall impression: If the offensive line can give Persa time to throw, NU’s offense can be very effective against a thin MSU secondary.  MSU has only seen a truly effective passing game against Notre Dame, and did not do much to be able to stop that in keys points in the game.  NU’s running game will continue to struggle, but the presence of the running back will keep Greg Jones and fellow linebacker Eric Gordon honest, which should be all Persa needs.  The weather will really play a role in NU’s ability to move the ball, but a wet field generally favors route-running receivers as long as Persa can keep the ball dry enough to throw.

When Michigan State has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Photo credit: bleacherreport.com

Kirk Cousins (QB): Cousins is still, somehow, only a Junior.  He runs a solid pro-style offense, which is really the first time this NU defense has seen such a set.  Cousins has 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, completing about 2/3 of his passes.  He is well known for his leadership and his ability to spread the ball around to his weapons.  He has big targets in Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham, who can test the NU secondary, and they will.  Cousins has a bit of a tweaked ankle, which may affect his mobility especially on the wet turf.  NU could score an early advantage by putting some pressure on Cousins and forcing some ill-advised throws.  He is, at times, interception prone.



Photo credit: nusports.com

Nate Williams: Williams has had a fairly quiet first half of the season, but I feel like he is finally ready to break out.  He will be needed to stop the MSU running attack as Quentin Davie cannot do it himself.  If the D-Line is being pushed off the ball, as it has in the last two weeks, Williams and the LBs will need to be patient and find the holes to stop the runners – as opposed to being caught in the mass of purple and green jerseys.  Williams should also be called upon to play some coverage against TE Charlie Gantt.

Photo credit: fantake.com

Edwin Baker and Le’veon Bell (RBs): MSUs two-headed monster at running back is as good of a tandem will see all year, and that includes Wisconsin.  Both are young, fast, and capable of busting the big run.  NU will have to be true to its schemes and contain these two guys.  Otherwise, Kirk Cousins will not even need to throw the ball.

In the trenches: NU’s front four was manhandled Minnesota, giving up huge runs on first and second downs.  Most of the game against Purdue, however, it appeared to improve, giving up the two big runs and a few scrambles – but otherwise shutting down the running game.  For NU to have a chance to win, the front four need to continue to improve and get off the ball fast.  If they spend the majority of the game being pushed backwards, it is going to a long wet afternoon.

Overall Impression: NU’s defense has not faced a pro-style offense all season, and quite frankly, it is built better to stop it.  The Linebackers are still the best talent on this defense and the defense is better as whole when there are more LBs on the field.  The secondary will get beat by a few play action plays, but as long as they do not lead to some big touchdowns, this game should stay close.  MSU offense can be a little inconsistent, but can score in bunches as Illinois and Michigan saw in the last two weeks.  NU will take its punches, but will have to counter in order to be in this game.

Intangibles: Where do I begin?  How about the most obvious.  Michigan State fans have been talking for two weeks that if they beat Iowa (October 30) they are going to the Rose Bowl.  This game is an afterthought to the fan base.  The key will be whether the players have bought into their own hype or whether the coaching staff has kept them grounded.  Dantonio’s efforts to coach from the field may help that.

NU has had two weeks to prepare for this game and is 10-1 after its last 11 losses (8-0 after last 8 Big Ten losses).  Fitz should have the team focused and hopefully will avoid the comedy of errors that have plagued the team over the last three weeks.  Ara Parseghian should be able to give an emotional boost, even if the players do not know who he is.  Homecoming game – this will be a fun one.

Bottom Line: As I begin to write this paragraph, I am still not certain how it will end.  NU is becoming the sexy pick for the upset of the week nationally; and that makes me uncomfortable.  From a talent standpoint, NU is on par with MSU.  But from a confidence standpoint, MSU is flying sky high, while NU has suffered through penalties, mental mistakes, turnovers, and special teams’ mishaps – all of which will be magnified by the poor weather.  NU will need to force a turnover or two, preferably early to get their heads on strait.  NU has played in 22 consecutive game where it has held a lead or been tied in the fourth quarter, sadly, I think that the streak ends tomorrow.  The game remains close, but NU is unable to get the drive it needs in the fourth.

Cats lose 21-24.

Go Cats!  Prove me wrong.

johnknublog@gmail.com
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http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Homecoming Week News & Notes

There is a lot of news, notes and stories to get to today as we lead into the big Homecoming matchup against #8 Michigan State.  So I will jump right into it.

First off, this is an extremely important week for the Cats and a huge game for Fitz as a coach.  And the Cats are in a great position.  For one thing, a loss (unless it is a blowout loss) would be the expected result in most minds, including the media and recruits.  A loss alone would not set the program back any, and while it makes the next two weeks against Indiana and Penn State mission critical, would not have any major impact on the master plan.

But a win would give instant credibility to the 2010 Cats.  Regardless of your personal opinion on the 2010 Michigan State Spartans, this is a team playing with a lot of pride, confidence, and emotion; and the nation has hitched its trailer to the MSU wagon.  Suddenly, the team would be 6-1 with two very winnable road games ahead.  It would demonstrate Fitz’s ability to flush a disappointing loss and coach a team during a bye week.  The overall impact of a win would be even greater than the Iowa win last year, which most attribute to Stanzi’s injury.

Playing in NU’s favor is the Homecoming game.  NU has had great success in homecoming games over recent years. 

·         2009 – Largest comeback in school history against Indiana

·         2008 – Blowout win against Purdue

·         2007 – Previous largest comeback in school history against Minnesota

·         2004 – Last minute comeback victory over Kyle Orton and Purdue

·         2003 – Solid victory against ranked Wisconsin

·         2001 – Victory against ranked Minnesota

·         1999 – Comeback victory against Iowa in Zak Kustok’s debut

·         1997 – Victory against highly ranked MSU team on last minute blocked field goal

·         1996 – Last minute victory over Illinois

·         1995 – 35-0 beat-down of Wisconsin

Overall, NU is 10-5 in the Expect Victory Era on homecoming, with two of the five losses coming within a touchdown.  And everyone knows about the history of the NU-MSU games going back to 1997, which I will get into more tomorrow.

As a special treat, legendary NU football coach Ara Parseghian will return to Evanston for the first time in decades on Saturday.  He apparently will be an honorary captain, will address the team before the game, and will be recognized in a ceremony along with 60-70 of his former players.  Ara is, of course, best known for his time at Notre Dame and for being portrayed by Exorcist actor Jason Miller in Rudy.  But arguably his best coaching job was his eight years at Northwestern from 1956-1963. 

In 1955, NU was 0-8-1.  In 1962, NU was ranked #1 in the country for the first time since 1936.  The 1962 Playboy All-America team featured two NU players (out of eleven) and Ara as Coach of the Year.  Ara also played tailback alongside former NU great Otto Graham on the 1948 Cleveland Browns AAFC Championship team.  Tina Akouris writes an excellent article on the Odyssey of Ara's career.  Evidently, Ara is quite impressed with this year’s NU squad.

The visit from Ara has only fueled the already hot funeral pyre for the Spartans undefeated season.  While the Cat players are downplaying the significance of the game, it is impossible to avoid the comparisons to last year’s Iowa game.  The game may truly come down to which team has the better mental makeup – can NU live up to its upset-minded fans’ expectations; can Sparty avoid looking ahead to Iowa and its brutally easy November schedule?

Of primary importance in the Cats preparation for Saturday was the bye week.  It could not have come at a better time as the Cats needed the rest to prepare for MSU and to expunge the memories from the Purdue loss.  The Daily reports on the team bonding and the leadership counsel’s preparation for Sparty.

But the Cats quickly got back to work as reported by Skip Myslenski for nusports.com.  I love the attitude of the players on this team.  They are cognizant of their role as the underdog, and the success of NU in the past in that role.  But they have the confidence and true belief that if they win, it will not be an upset, but the result of the better team winning.  The team relishes the idea of controlling its own destiny in the Big Ten race – although they do not exactly hold that position as Purdue still sits as the only zero-loss team who is not remaining on NU’s schedule.

So much has been said the Wildcat running game in the last two weeks; from Lake the Posts calling to completely abandon the run (sorry could not find the specific link) to this rant I sent in an email among friends:

I really hope that ***** wasn't serious about abandoning the run completely, because I would lose a lot of respect for him from a football standpoint.  Even though NU would like to run the ball better, NU needs the quantity of runs to be able to throw.  Even the 0-1 yard gains require the defense to keep 6 people in the box to keep them from becoming 5-7 yard gains, which leaves much more room for the receivers to run around.  It's not as if our poor run offense permits the defense to ignore it.  They still have to guard against it.  The alternative being going 5-wide or 4+TE each play, which allows the defense to drop as many as 8 into coverage.  Having the running back just stand there and forcing the defense to commit at least one guy to preventing Trumpy from turning a 2 yard gain into a long run (as sad as that sounds) is an integral part of the offense.  You also can't just use him as a decoy and only run; say 15% of the time.  The defense is likely to play the odds and give up the 8-12 yard gain every now and then.  It is also nearly impossible to break a long run with 8 guys in coverage because none of them are overplaying or getting blocked at the line of scrimmage.

 I like the balance of the Purdue game actually, 42 runs, 41 passes.  NU has a few run - pass options in the playbook, and some of these are pass plays that broke down into scrambles, but I like the 50-50 balance.  I think that if NU went 50/50 in any of the first five games, the games would have been a lot more lop-sided in our favor.  When NU went 66-33 in the Outback Bowl, NU threw 5 picks.  I don't know that NU would ever want Persa throwing more than 45 times in a game.  But NU still needs to run at least 35-40 times (including scrambles) if NU wants to have any passing lanes to throw into.

But according to the Daily, NU is going to continue to try to maintain balance. I love the quote from Fitz about his 30,000 offensive coordinators begging him to throw more.  Personally, I would like to see more passing on first down and somewhere around a 55/45 pass/run ratio.  This will give us more second and 3-4 yards, which puts the defense on their heels, because they know NU will both run and pass in that situation.  It also keeps the balance at the point where the run can set up an effective passing game.

A few other articles worth reading that I do not have time to write full paragraphs about.  Skip Myslenski writes a nice piece about how the Wildcat Safeties are the Superbacks of the defense.  The Daily makes a great point about how avoiding injuries has been a key this season.   Remember how many injuries NU had sustained last season at this point?

The criticism of the NU special teams has been overdone, so I am not going to dive into that again.  But Demos remains upbeat despite the constant harassment over the past 12 days. Remember fans, he has won three games for NU with last second kicks in the last 19 games, and only lost two.   Demos’ kicking battery make John Henry Pace talked to Tina Akouris about his recent scholarship grant.  

In what may be an effort to help his team remain focused on the Cats and not their game at Iowa, Mark Dantonio hopes to coach from field Saturday.  As much as I hope that this does not give Sparty a kick into high gear, it is really good to see Mark D. back in the game.

Finally, nusports.com has new website design.  I love how “tickets” is the first tab, even before “sports.”  It is these little touches that will make the new marketing campaign really work.

Preview tomorrow…

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com

www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt

http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Big Ten Wednesday (Thursday)

Well it appears that Big Ten Wednesday has become Big Ten Thursday once again. I will attribute that to my laziness.

Speaking of laziness, I present to you the week 4 Big Ten schedule. It consists of eight games against MAC school, two games against FCS school (Illinois is off) an even Nebraska plays FCS South Dakota State. I cannot remember a worse non-conference weekend. I will not waste your time and mine by trying to break down these games other than I think that all 11 games are Big Ten winners (including Nebraska) and that Michigan (Bowling Green) and Penn State (Temple) are in the most peril for an upset.

Week three gave us even less clarity on the Big Ten power rankings as the gap between two and six is getting smaller. I do feel vindicated for my placement of Michigan at seven (where they will stay). Also, my intent was to stay up long enough to make Iowa my feature team of the week. But alas, I could not stay up that long. So instead I will break down Michigan State, who won a heart-stopper (sorry bad pun. Seriously Mark D. Get well soon. We all want you back on the sidelines ASAP; our thoughts and prayers are with you) against Notre Dame on Saturday.

1 Ohio State: Right now the Buckeyes are in another league than the rest of the conference. This is not to say that they are not capable of losing, or that they could compete with an Alabama. But they are playing some of the best football on the planet right now and should go into the Wisconsin game on October 16 undefeated.

2 Wisconsin: The Badgers get this spot by default, primarily because they won and Iowa did not. But the Badgers need to show more consistency on offense than they did at home against Arizona State. As usual, the Badgers play a mildly ambitious non-conference schedule, so we know a good deal more about them than most teams. With that said, Wisconsin has a lot of work to do before October 16.

3 Iowa: The Hawkeyes continued their string of poor performances on west coast trips with a loss to Arizona. The vaunted Iowa defense had another on of its first half lapses that we have seen many times over the last two seasons. Iowa has some great NFL-caliber talent on that defense, and they may have the best defensive line in the game. But the bottom finally fell out Saturday night, and the offense was unable to recover. This unit needs to work on it's chemistry or competent offenses will continue to have their way in the first half of games.

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4 Michigan State
The Spartans are an interesting team. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Maybe more than people expected going into the year. But the primary problem is inconsistency. For instance, on offense against Notre Dame, when MSU scored, they scored quickly, and efficiently. But other times, the offense really sputtered. Case in point, when Brian Kelly gave MSU a gift by going for it on fourth down at midfield with 6 minutes left, MSU could not move the ball and squandered the opportunity. Better ball control offenses, such as Wisconsin and Northwestern should be able to keep the MSU offense off the field, thus limiting its opportunities to be explosive and increasing the chances of winning.

On the other side of the ball, we saw the same problem. Notre Dame had some occasions when they moved the ball right over MSU, for instance the drive that lead to the go ahead TD at the end of the third / beginning of the fourth quarter. But at other times, the pressure of the front seven is dominating. Jones and his crew up front will cover up a lot of holes in the secondary. And weaker offenses will crumble under the pressure. But veteran and composed quarterbacks that can get into a rhythm will be able to score on these guys.

MSU will receive a great deal of residual benefit from the events of Saturday night and Sunday morning. In addition to the emotional lift of a great win, the confidence in Dantonio is at an all time high. Add to that a win one for coach attitude, and this could be a dangerous team, notwithstanding their on field issues.

T-5 Penn State: The Nits have just been downright unimpressive, which why they were relegated to a tie for fifth.  In their two "easy" games, the offense looked lost in the first halves, before turning it on in the second half.  And against Alabama, PSU was just outclassed at every position.  This is not to say that they do not have the talent to be among the top five in the league; but they have certainly underachieved their way to this spot.

T-5 Northwestern: The most impressive thing about the Wildcats season has been how well Vanderbilt has played; thus justifying, in some ways, the close game in Nashville.  NU has just played solid on both sides of the ball.  The running game will continue to be the Achilles heel, but the distance between Northwestern and Wisconsin in the power rankings is shrinking every week.

7 Michigan: Michigan's porous secondary reared its ugly head once again against Massachusetts, demonstrating that regardless of the play of Denard Robinson, this team is not quite ready for prime time.  There is no doubt that it will outscore teams.  But against teams with a legit defense and a competent offense, Michigan will have a difficult time keeping it close.  DR is still the most fun player to watch in the conference right now.

T-8 Purdue:Notre Dame, it has limped along against two MAC schools.  What was expected to be a potent offense has been a little slow.  The loss of Smith for the year has not helped much.

T-8 Indiana Despite the fact that they have not played anyone with a pulse, the Indiana offense has been pretty exciting to watch.  Chappell was the Big Ten Player of the Week in Week 3.  This team is strikingly similar to last year, and I do not know whether the end record will be any different.  But at the very least they will be fun to watch.

10 Minnesota: The Gophers played admirably against USC on Saturday.  Pretty good for a team that they did not even belong on the field with.  Maybe it is a home field advantage, maybe just the excitement of playing USC, but that first half might be the highlight of the season.

11 Illinois: It is going to continue to be a long season.  Saturday might be their last win.

X Nebraska: Are the Huskers that good or is Washington that bad?  Either way, their Freshman QB is amazing to watch and will give Big Ten defenses fits for the next three years.

Go Cats!