Game Preview: Northwestern (2-0) at Rice (1-1)

Saturday, September 18, 2010 6:00 CST

Rice Stadium, Houston Texas

Photo credit: ricefootball.net

Northwestern dominated FCS Illinois State in Evanston last Saturday with a 37-3 win, its largest margin of victory in almost five years.  Rice is coming off its first win of the season, a 32-31 road victory at North Texas, the Owls first non-conference road win since 2006.  Rice and Northwestern have met five times previously, three times in Houston, with Rice leading the series 4-1.  The last meeting was in 1998, a rather unimpressive 23-14 Wildcat win in Houston.  Expect Victory fans may remember the 1997 game, a 40-34 Owl victory in Evanston.  In that game, Rice ran the option all over the Wildcat defense – if my memory serves me right, it had more than 500 yards rushing.  Rice is 5-14 all time against the Big Ten.

Injury Report: Good news here as Outside Linebacker Bryce McNaul (shoulder) has been upgraded to probable and is listed as a starter in NU’s two-deep.  The Cats will need the depth in the Texas heat tomorrow night.  On the other hand, backup DT Niko Mafuli (leg) was downgraded to doubtful, although everything points to a return within the month for Niko.  OL Keegan Grant (Illness) and FS David Arnold (foot) are also questionable.  Given the conditions, they may be called into service in a pinch.

For the Owls, Quarterback Taylor McHargue is out with a separated shoulder.  He led Rice to their game-winning touchdown last week.  Starting Tight End Vance McDonald (shoulder) is also out.  Rice is also playing the season without their All-Conference USA Defensive Tackle Scott Solomon.

Weather: Hot and humid. 93 with a light wind.  Coach Fitz says that he plans to bring 70 players to the game and use as many as 67. Check out the Weather.com forecast.

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Dan Persa: Dan’s spot as the Wildcat offense player to watch is hereby solidified until further notice.  He has been scary efficient and should continue to be so as long as his line gives him time.  Rice plays a 4-2-5 set, basically a permanent nickel.  Usually this is indicative of a lack of depth or talent at Linebacker.  We may see Persa running the option more, as well as more slants and in routes.  Every starting DB for Rice is listed as 6’1”, which makes for some taller Cornerbacks.  This may limit patterns that would require NU’s receivers to out-jump the defender.  There are two sophomores in the secondary however, so the Cats may try to expose the youth.

Photo credit: minerillustrated.com

Travis Bradshaw (FS): It is never a good sign when your leading tackler is your free safety.  He is a second team All-Conference USA selection by Phil Steele.  Bradshaw joined the Owls as a walk-on and is a great story.  His 10 tackles in the opener against Texas marked his tenth straight game with double-digit tackles.  He is a quick safety who should keep big gains to a minimum.  Rice needs to avoid leaving Bradshaw one-on-one against Dunsmore, however, as this would be a major mismatch.

Jeremy Ebert: Ebert is the Wildcats leading receiver so far this year and is taking on the role of a dangerous possession receiver.  He, along with the rest of the NU receiving corps, are giving up a little size to the tall Rice secondary.  But he should make up for it with his experience and his route running.  If Ebert and Persa get into a rhythm, they could have a very successful evening.

In the trenches: NU’s offensive line was much stronger against ISU last week.  Rice’s defensive line is more experienced than the Redbirds, but they are a similar size – even a little smaller on the ends.  Cheta Ozougwu and Kramer Lucio are quick pass rushers, but are the size of Big Ten linebackers.  NU’s tackles should be able to push them around in the running game.  But needs to make sure to protect Persa without holding.

Overall impression: Fitz indicated that he might slow down the offense a little to counteract the heat.  That might work a double advantage.  There are a lot of holes in this defense, but there are strengths as well.  Persa will need to take his time and make his reads.  The weakness at linebacker will generally mean fewer blitzes. If Persa has time to throw, the Cats should be in really good shape.  Also, the 4-2-5 is generally a good defense to run against.  Arby Fields should be able to continue to build his confidence.  As long as the Cats do not get exhausted, they should be able to score some points. 

When Rice has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Photo credit: chron.com

Nick Fanuzzi (QB): Fanuzzi makes his first start of the season in place of the injured McHargue.  But Fanuzzi started eight games in 2009, so he is no stranger to taking snaps in real time.  With that said, Rice was 2-10 last year, so he has his work cut out for him.  The Wildcat defense were animals last week and will be ready to feast again.  Fanuzzi’s composure could be one of the keys to the game.  He is 15-26 for 212 yards with one TD and one pick in seeing about half of the pass plays for the Owls this season.  He has a pair of senior receivers to throw to, including 6’3” Pierre Beasley.  But the loss of his TE McDonald will take away a solid target.

Jordan Mabin: Northwestern’s junior corner has vastly improved over the course of his career.  But NU has traditionally had problems with tall talented receivers.  No doubt, Mabin will be assigned to Beasley – unless NU decides to match up Justan Vaughn, who has a slight height advantage on Mabin.  Either way, the corners will be tested and their ability to keep their man marked will be a difference maker.

Sam McGuffie (RB): McGuffie is not a starter, but he may be the most electrifying player on the field.  The transfer from Michigan saw his first playing time as an Owl against Texas and scored on a thrilling 51-yard reception against North Texas.  McGuffie is best known as a Youtube sensation for his jumping ability. If you have not seen McGuffie's high school highlight reel, check this out.  He does not have the ability to leap taller, faster, and stronger college players, but he is nonetheless a big weapon that the Cats will have to contain.

In the trenches: Rice’s offensive line is smaller than ISU, which is a problem for them.  NU’s defensive line absolutely dominated the Redbirds’ front line and should do much of the same against the Owls.  Senior Scott Mitchell, who has been a starter since 2007 anchors the line at LT.

Overall Impression: There is no reason why the Wildcat defense should not be able to control this game.  But if the Cats are not able to put pressure on Fanuzzi, he will have time to find his tall receivers.  And McGuffie is the wildcard.  NU needs to do what they can to keep the ball away from him in space.

Intangibles: The weather will be an issue.  But it will be an issue for both teams.  Just because Rice is accustomed to the heat, does not mean that they are not affected by it.  The kicking game could also be a key.  NU has struggled with placekicking thus far; Rice’s kicker made to 50+ yard field goals last week.

Bottom Line: NU has not lost to a non-BCS team since their loss to Nevada in 2006.  I do not see it happening here.  Granted, this is the “type of game that the Cats lose,” as the cynics would say.  But the numbers just do not add up to an upset.  Rice will play tough.  But the Cats will continue to roll.

Cats win 31-13.

Go Cats!