Saturday, September 11, 2010 11:00 CST
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| Photo credit: hailtopurple.com |
Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois
Northwestern is coming off a nail-biter in Nashville, and showed some great offense (at times) and poor defense (at times). Illinois State had a shootout on their hands against Central Missouri, but prevailed in the end 55-54. This is the first time that NU and ISU have met. Illinois State is 0-5 all time against the Big Ten Conference, including last year’s 45-17 loss to Illinois. The Redbirds hail from the Missouri Valley Conference, which is well known for its basketball. ISU was picked to finish third in the conference this year, and they are “receiving votes” in the FBS poll. Northwestern’s only prior match up against a MVC school was its 33-7 victory over Southern Illinois in 2008. The Cats look to start their season 2-0 for the fourth consecutive season.
Injury Report: For Northwestern, backup Defensive Tackle Niko Mafuli will miss the game with the knee injury that he suffered against Vandy. Safety David Arnold is listed as doubtful, while Linebacker Bryce McNaul is questionable. Collegeinjuryreport.com reports that Linebacker Roderick Goodlow is out for the season. For the life of me I cannot find any injury information on ISU.
Weather: Not looking good as thunderstorms strike the Midwest. Probably not a repeat of the SIU game two years ago, but not pleasant either. Check for updated weather from weather.com here.
When Northwestern has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Dan Persa: Dan showed us against Vandy that Cat fans do not need to worry about him. He showed great poise and leadership, made all the good passes, and run like wild. We will see how he reacts to the weather, which may limit some of this throwing. Hopefully, the Cats can get out to an early lead and not have to rely on the pass if the weather gets bad. But if the weather holds off, Persa should have a field day; this defense gave up 547 yards passing against Division II Central Missouri last week. There are three seniors in the defensive backfield, but every backup on the two-deep is a freshman. This means that when the Cats go four wide, ISU will have freshmen DBs or LBs covering our slot receivers.
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| Photo credit: goredbirds.com |
Josh Howe (LB): The Redbirds’ junior middle linebacker is the leader of this defense. Last week he was all over the place with eight tackles, 1.5 tackle-for-loss, and his first career interception. NU was able to neutralize Vandy’s star LB last week. But if NU has to rely on the run, Howe will be a big factor to contend with.
Arby Fields: Arby needs to figure things out in order to keep his starting job. He still has the best talent in the backfield, but he needs to trust his blockers and run north-south. If the weather requires the running game to be productive, he will be counted on. The Redbirds’ front seven is young and small, relative to what the Cats are used to. There is no reason that the running game should not succeed.
In the trenches: ISU’s defensive ends, Shelby Harris and Nick Broome are smaller and less experienced than the Vandy ends that gave NU such a hard time last Saturday. Even if Arby, falls into his old habits, he should be able to break outside a little easier. According to the game notes, Harris wears a size 18 shoe, for what that’s worth. NU’s pass protection should be able to give Persa all day to throw.
Overall impression: The weather will be a major factor for the Cat offense. Obviously the ISU defense gave up big yardage and big points to a far inferior team last week. But the Cats need to be able to run the ball in case the ball gets wet and the wind picks up. Scoring early will take a lot of pressure off, and chances are, the Cats will take care of it. Expect to see Evan Watkins by the third quarter.
When Illinois State has the Ball:
Players to watch…
Matt Brown (QB): ISU’s sophomore signal-caller is well on his way to being the school’s all time leader in everything (think Brett Basanez’ career at NU). Brown stands at 6’4” and is a nice size for a QB. He was very efficient last week going 23-30 for 298 yards and 3 TDs. But he is not much of a runner, which could be his downfall against NU. NU’s blitz packages will have Brown guessing all day and he is going to need to be able to get rid of the ball quickly to have any success.
Jack DiNardo: Northwestern’s junior D-Lineman had his coming out party. He put Vandy’s QB in duress on many occasions, although that enabled him to run quite a bit. The NU defense shouldn’t have that problem with Brown, which means DiNardo and he cohorts should have a big game.
Marvon Sanders (WR): Sanders was a high school state long jump champion and was the leading receiver for the Redbirds last week. The sophomore from Indianapolis is small but fast. The NU defensive backs need to make sure that they do not lose him running around, because he can cause some problems in the open field. Mabin will have his work cut out for him.
In the trenches: No matter what the level, a team that scores 55 points is a team that a defense needs to be concerned with. But with the exception of a 57 yard run, most of the offense was through the air. If the front seven can put pressure on Brown, they should be able to force sacks and turnovers.
Overall Impression: NU’s offense will score enough points that the defense will not be called upon like they were last week. But NU cannot afford to get into a shootout against this team. Scoring early will be critical. NU should not have the tackling issues that it had last Saturday as they face a much smaller foe this week.
Intangibles: I hate to keep railing on the weather, but this could be an issue. NU needs to get back its fire, which was obviously lacking in Nashville. NU has lost to a FBS team in the Fitz era, so they will not be looking past this team. This does not mean that the Redbirds will not be able to get themselves up for the upset.
Bottom Line: Jacksonville State reminded everyone last week, including NU, that the FBS teams are not to be ignored. But there is a chasm between the talent on this team and NU. If Persa is a fraction of what he was last week, this should be over quickly. The Cats will not keep the Birds down completely, but the score will never be close.
Cats win 40-17.
Go Cats!
See my blog post, and blogs for other teams at Phil Steele.com
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