Northwestern Football 2010: Answers and Questions

Well, after watching the first half of the ISU game, I do not really have anything else to add to my Sunday post.  So alternatively, I want to take some time to assess what NU has shown fans thus far, and what questions still remain.

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Dan Persa: The player with the most questions at the beginning of the year has made the biggest statement so far this year.  Had Mr. Robinson not burst upon the scene in Ann Arbor, Persa may have been the story of the Big Ten so far.  We knew he could run – and he runs smart.  We now know he can pass – and make “all the throws.”  Vandy was a decent defense, probably in the top half that the Cats will see.  But it remains to be seen whether Persa can withstand a killer pass rush.  The Cats are also going to see better corners against better foes.  Persa seems to have pinpoint accuracy, which will be tested as the season goes on.

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Running Game: Fitz answered one question for Cat fans yesterday by officially naming Arby Fields as the starting running back on the two-deep.  He had previously shared that title with Schmidt and Simmons.  Fields will certainly be the feature back, but he is going to need to be able to break 100 yards if he is going to carry the ball that often.  While he showed more promise against ISU, it still was not great.  Again, Vandy has a pretty good run defense, so the Cats should have time to continue to tweak the run.  Schmidt, Simmons, and Concannon are all nice for a change of pace, but need to be more effective for their playing time to be worthwhile.

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Receiving Corps: It is safe to say that NU has one of the most complete receiving corps that it has ever had.  Ebert, Stewart, and Fields are smart possession-type receivers who are primarily responsible for Persa’s sick completion percentage.  Dunsmore will be a red-zone threat to score every game.  Mark and Lawrence will be impact players even just as freshmen.  Add in Charles Brown and Brendan Barber to the mix and Persa has an arsenal of hands to find.  The constant rotation of these receivers should keep even the best secondaries on their toes.  The biggest question is whether this group is ready to shoulder the heavy burden of carrying this team if the running game continues to falter.

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Offensive Line: Thus far, this has been a mixed bag.  The pass blocking has been pretty good.  But the run blocking against Vandy was very weak, especially by the tackles.  Going forward, they should be able to continue to create nice pockets for Persa to throw out of, especially as his confidence continues to grow.  But the run blocking needs to take it to the next level.  Literally, as simply blocking the defensive linemen will not cut it in the Big Ten.  The key to this unit’s success will be breaking off the initial blocks and taking out the linebackers – as Fitz put it, turning 4 yards into 8 and 6 yards into 12.  This unit has three more weeks to gel before its next true test.

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Defensive Line: With the exception of the missed tackling against Vandy, this has been a very impressive unit thus far.  There has been nice pressure put on the quarterbacks and nice containment on the running backs.  The question is whether this very deep group can (1) continue their dominance – but finish the job, i.e., tackle and (2) continue their effectiveness against stronger offensive lines.  NU’s strength on defense is its depth.  And perhaps one of the most important keys to the season is whether that depth is truly deep, or just a big drop-off.

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Linebackers: The linebacker play was really lacking against Vandy but played as expected against ISU.  Strong, fast blitz packages, quality coverage routes, and run jamming stops were the order of the day against ISU – not so much the week before.  The three biggest questions here are (1) which was the real linebacking corps, and can the ISU performance be replicated against stronger offenses; (2) will injuries take their toll on this otherwise deep unit (although Bryce McNaul is back on the two-deep, Rod Goodlow is out for the year); and (3) will they be able to tackle an elite running back.

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Secondary: It appears that this unit will still be missing David Arnold for Rice as his name continues to be missing from the depth chart.  At least it does not have the injury trouble from last year.  But the 2009 defensive back infirmary gave rise to the experience level in this year’s squad a level of maturity that has been demonstrated in the first two games.  The question remains is whether the DBs will continue to gel and improve like last year’s unit and whether they will be able to contain the Big Ten’s elite receivers.  Kevin Smith’s (Purdue) injury is unfortunate, but the Cats will still need to face the likes of Johnson –Koulianos and Nick Toon before the season is over.

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Special Teams: This has been a real mixed bag of really good and really bad.  Kick coverage has been good; tackling on kick coverage bad.   Punts have been good; placekicking has been horrific.  Returns have been adequate, but fans would love to see Venric Mark.  The question here sits squarely on the shoulders of the special teams’ coach – which, of course, just happens to be the head coach.  Can Fitz spend enough time with this unit at practice, yet still commit the time necessary to lead the whole team to a 8, 9, or ten-win season.  His confidence in his ability to coach the special teamers combined with the players overall talent should produce results.  But it has not yet.  These guys could cost the Wildcats a game if they are not careful, and almost have already.

All in all, the Cats have answered a lot of the preseason questions through two games.  But they have also created a lot of new ones for fans like you and bloggers like me to consider over the next ten weeks.  In many ways it is probably good that college football only consumes us for 3 months out of the year.  How on earth would be get anything done otherwise?

Go Cats.

Game Preview: Illinois State (1-0) at Northwestern (1-0)

Saturday, September 11, 2010 11:00 CST

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Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois

Northwestern is coming off a nail-biter in Nashville, and showed some great offense (at times) and poor defense (at times).  Illinois State had a shootout on their hands against Central Missouri, but prevailed in the end 55-54. This is the first time that NU and ISU have met.  Illinois State is 0-5 all time against the Big Ten Conference, including last year’s 45-17 loss to Illinois.  The Redbirds hail from the Missouri Valley Conference, which is well known for its basketball. ISU was picked to finish third in the conference this year, and they are “receiving votes” in the FBS poll.  Northwestern’s only prior match up against a MVC school was its 33-7 victory over Southern Illinois in 2008.  The Cats look to start their season 2-0 for the fourth consecutive season. 

Injury Report: For Northwestern, backup Defensive Tackle Niko Mafuli will miss the game with the knee injury that he suffered against Vandy.  Safety David Arnold is listed as doubtful, while Linebacker Bryce McNaul is questionable. Collegeinjuryreport.com reports that Linebacker Roderick Goodlow is out for the season.  For the life of me I cannot find any injury information on ISU.

Weather: Not looking good as thunderstorms strike the Midwest.  Probably not a repeat of the SIU game two years ago, but not pleasant either. Check for updated weather from weather.com here.

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Dan Persa: Dan showed us against Vandy that Cat fans do not need to worry about him.  He showed great poise and leadership, made all the good passes, and run like wild.  We will see how he reacts to the weather, which may limit some of this throwing.  Hopefully, the Cats can get out to an early lead and not have to rely on the pass if the weather gets bad.  But if the weather holds off, Persa should have a field day; this defense gave up 547 yards passing against Division II Central Missouri last week.  There are three seniors in the defensive backfield, but every backup on the two-deep is a freshman.  This means that when the Cats go four wide, ISU will have freshmen DBs or LBs covering our slot receivers.

Photo credit: goredbirds.com

Josh Howe (LB): The Redbirds’ junior middle linebacker is the leader of this defense.  Last week he was all over the place with eight tackles, 1.5 tackle-for-loss, and his first career interception.  NU was able to neutralize Vandy’s star LB last week.  But if NU has to rely on the run, Howe will be a big factor to contend with.

Arby Fields: Arby needs to figure things out in order to keep his starting job.  He still has the best talent in the backfield, but he needs to trust his blockers and run north-south.  If the weather requires the running game to be productive, he will be counted on.  The Redbirds’ front seven is young and small, relative to what the Cats are used to.  There is no reason that the running game should not succeed.

In the trenches: ISU’s defensive ends, Shelby Harris and Nick Broome are smaller and less experienced than the Vandy ends that gave NU such a hard time last Saturday.  Even if Arby, falls into his old habits, he should be able to break outside a little easier.  According to the game notes, Harris wears a size 18 shoe, for what that’s worth.  NU’s pass protection should be able to give Persa all day to throw.

Overall impression: The weather will be a major factor for the Cat offense.  Obviously the ISU defense gave up big yardage and big points to a far inferior team last week.  But the Cats need to be able to run the ball in case the ball gets wet and the wind picks up.  Scoring early will take a lot of pressure off, and chances are, the Cats will take care of it.  Expect to see Evan Watkins by the third quarter.

When Illinois State has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Matt Brown (QB): ISU’s sophomore signal-caller is well on his way to being the school’s all time leader in everything (think Brett Basanez’ career at NU).  Brown stands at 6’4” and is a nice size for a QB. He was very efficient last week going 23-30 for 298 yards and 3 TDs.  But he is not much of a runner, which could be his downfall against NU.  NU’s blitz packages will have Brown guessing all day and he is going to need to be able to get rid of the ball quickly to have any success.

Jack DiNardo: Northwestern’s junior D-Lineman had his coming out party.  He put Vandy’s QB in duress on many occasions, although that enabled him to run quite a bit.  The NU defense shouldn’t have that problem with Brown, which means DiNardo and he cohorts should have a big game.

Marvon Sanders (WR): Sanders was a high school state long jump champion and was the leading receiver for the Redbirds last week.  The sophomore from Indianapolis is small but fast.  The NU defensive backs need to make sure that they do not lose him running around, because he can cause some problems in the open field.  Mabin will have his work cut out for him.

In the trenches: No matter what the level, a team that scores 55 points is a team that a defense needs to be concerned with.  But with the exception of a 57 yard run, most of the offense was through the air.  If the front seven can put pressure on Brown, they should be able to force sacks and turnovers.

Overall Impression: NU’s offense will score enough points that the defense will not be called upon like they were last week.  But NU cannot afford to get into a shootout against this team.  Scoring early will be critical.  NU should not have the tackling issues that it had last Saturday as they face a much smaller foe this week.

Intangibles: I hate to keep railing on the weather, but this could be an issue.  NU needs to get back its fire, which was obviously lacking in Nashville.  NU has lost to a FBS team in the Fitz era, so they will not be looking past this team.  This does not mean that the Redbirds will not be able to get themselves up for the upset.

Bottom Line: Jacksonville State reminded everyone last week, including NU, that the FBS teams are not to be ignored.  But there is a chasm between the talent on this team and NU.  If Persa is a fraction of what he was last week, this should be over quickly.  The Cats will not keep the Birds down completely, but the score will never be close.

Cats win 40-17.

Go Cats!

See my blog post, and blogs for other teams at Phil Steele.com