Saturday November 20, 2010; 2:30 CST (ESPNU; ESPN3 online)
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
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| Photo Credit: Chicago Tribune.com |
Safety First: In a shocking bit of news that came across the internet around 11:00 EST, the end zone shown above will be reserved for touchbacks, defensive and special teams touchdowns, and safeties. It appears that after assuring the public that both sides had agreed to the layout of the field, someone balked after viewing the stadium first-hand. There will be finger-pointing and questions unanswered, and this will undoubtedly add to the unique nature of this very unique game. Hopefully, the special adjusted Big Ten Rules, which were announced this morning, will only affect the view of the game, and not the outcome.
This development certainly has the ability to affect fan enjoyment of the game. Especially for those fans in the “right field” seats, who had better hope for a defensive struggle if they want to get their money’s worth out of their admission. But in the end, just like at a Cubs home game, the seats on the first and third base lines will be premium viewing locations for most, if not all, of the scoring. Those hoping to catch a special edition football that sails over the right field wall will be disappointed – as even the strongest wind is unlikely to carry a kickoff onto Addison. Here’s hoping that the oddity of the special rules do not detract from what is surely an important game for both schools.
Northwestern, like it has done in the previous two Novembers, revived its season after a brutal loss by beating #13 Iowa 21-17 last weekend. In doing so, All-Big Ten candidate Dan Persa rekindled the fire of the Cardiac Cats, which seemed to have dwindled this season. Meanwhile, Illinois is coming off two gut-wrenching losses: a 67-65 triple-overtime track meet against Michigan, and a horrible loss to a Minnesota team that had lost nine straight. Illinois combined scores over the last two games is 99-105; so take that for what it is worth.
This is the second year that the in-state rivals will play for the Land of Lincoln Trophy – currently held by Northwestern. Illinois leads the all-time series by a count of 52-46-5; although NU leads 10-5 during the Expect Victory Era. Illinois won the only previous game played between the two at Wrigley Field (then Cubs Park); a 29-0 shutout lead by the legendary Red Grange. This is a series that has had very few surprises in the past, as the team with the better record entering the game has won 11 straight, and 16 out of the last 17 meetings.
Injury Report: Other than the obvious Dan Persa injury, the sheet reads the same as last week. Backup OL Doug Bartels (Shoulder) and ?th-string running back Jacob Schmidt (Ankle) are both listed as questionable. For Illinois, backup CB Terry Hawthorne (Foot) is questionable. LB Evan Frierson was dismissed from the team due to his trouble with the law. Thanks to Collegeinjuryreport.com for the update.
Weather Report: Cold but dry. High of 44, low of 38, which we may see once the sun goes down after halftime. Light winds up to 12 mph coming in from center field. See Weather.com for details, and dress warm.
When Northwestern has the ball:
Players to Watch
Evan Watkins: What to think about this? Evan Watkins is a big kid. At 6’6”, 245, he is 10 pounds heavier than Terrell Pryor and 5 pounds lighter than Cam Newton (at the same height as both). He can run, but not fast. So expect to see more Tim Tebow than what we have been used to with Danny. His arm is very strong and he should be able to open up the offense a little more than Persa could if he is given time to throw. Expect the Illini defense to put a lot of pressure on Evan early, especially on passing downs. A big question is whether the Cats will keep up their offensive tempo, or slow down for the benefit of Evan. The Cats ran 82 plays last week, the second most ever by NU in a regulation game. I would expect to see less, especially with the modified sideline sharing.
Corey Liuget (DT): Liuget is a big quick dude at 6’3” 285. He leads the team with 8.5 tackles for loss and is ninth in the Big Ten in both sacks and tackles for loss. His 11 tackles against Michigan State was the highest total by an Illinois DT in 14 years. In a position not generally known for racking up the stats, Liuget is a big force as a run-stopper. The Cats will need to account for him in the middle if it wants to get the run game going – as the loss of Persa’s speed will limit the ability to run the option outside.
Drake Dunsmore: There was a Drake Dunsmore sighting last week in Evanston. The Cats’ Superback, who has suffered through most of the season with injured ribs and tight coverage found his way open for 8 catches and 65 yards and surpassed 1000 yards for his career at NU. Drake will see a lot of coverage from Senior LB Nate Bussey, who will be a far greater challenge than Iowa’s freshman LB last week. Dunsmore’s short routes and ability to run after the catch will be an important outlet for Evan as he gets his feet wet.
In the trenches: NU’s line played very well against Iowa’s front four last week, eventually wearing them down to the point of being completely ineffective. They will not be able to afford to wait that long on Saturday. It will be time to pride-up and protect their young signal-caller. Illinois has a freshman and a sophomore on its D-Line, which has been shredded in the last two weeks. But NU will have to focus its attention on Liuget and Senior DE Clay Nurse.
Overall Impression: An actual quote from the Illinois SID game notes: “Illini defense has history of shutting down high powered offenses”. The first bullet point then goes on to boast about holding Denard Robinson to just 62 yards. No mention of the 67 points that they gave up in that game. NU has scored the first touchdown in each of its 10 games, and I would expect a scripted first series designed to do the same. But from that point on Evan will need to do the heavy lifting. I would expect one big mistake and two little ones from Evan – it will be how the team responds that will make the difference.
When Illinois has the ball:
Nathan Scheelhaase (QB): Scheelhaase is a contender for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, and for good reason. This was an Illinois team that was not expected to do much, and after a slow start, Scheelhaase lead the team to solid wins over PSU and Purdue, two teams that beat Northwestern. Illinois does not throw the ball much; it has passed for more than 200 yards only four times this year, but in each of the last three games. The run-pass ratio is often 2-1. But Scheelhaase runs an efficient offense: they score off turnovers, convert third downs, and when they make mistakes, they are not big ones. NU’s goal needs to be to force Scheelhaase to beat them with his arm.
NU Linebackers: The bottom line is that if NU wants to win this game, they are going to need to stop the Illini running game. And that means the linebacker corps are going to need to step up. Quentin Davie and Nate Williams are playing their last game in front of a friendly crowd, and they need to put on a show. Putting pressure on the run game and keeping contain on the short passes. A failure in this department means an NU loss.
Mikel Leshoure (RB): Leshoure, even more than Scheelhaase, has been the biggest surprise for the Illini this season. He has six 100-yard games, and is 2nd in the Big Ten, 14th Nationally in rushing yards. He is a fast and powerful runner – much like what the Cats saw out of Adam Robinson last week. The Cats would be well served trying to be aggressive against Leshoure, because he can get 4-6 yard gains all day.
In the Trenches: Illinois O-Line is significantly larger than what the Cats faced against Iowa last week, so the NU line is going to need to put on its Big Boy pants tomorrow. They are the primary reason for the Illini rushing attack. NU’s D-Linemen will need to keep the Illini from getting their blockers to the second level and breaking big gains for Leshoure. In passing situation, NU should be able to create trouble for Scheelhaase, but need to contain, for he is a running threat as well.
Overall Impression: Lost in the Illini defense giving up 105 points over the last 14 days is the fact that the offense scored 99 points in the same two games. It is doubtful that Illinois has the firepower to hang 40 on the Cats, but 28-35 points are not out of the question if the Cats cannot stop the run. With a rookie QB, the Cats cannot afford a shootout.
Intangibles: The Cats are playing for Persa and to protect their new guy, Evan. The Illini are playing for their bowl eligibility and to protect their coach, Zook. This will be a circus atmosphere, and each team will need to contain their emotion and focus on the game. The team that remembers that the field is still 100 yards long, just like the gym back in Hickory, will be the team that will prevail.
Bottom Line: The Cats game plan from last week, to wear down the defense will not work tomorrow. They cannot afford to rely on Evan to lead a comeback. Everyone will need to step up and do their part for the Cats – Watkins can afford a few mistakes – but no one else can. The Illini need to avoid the meltdown that everyone expects to happen. Something has to give, but the Cats prevail – in a close one.
Cats win 23-20.
Go Cats!
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