Recruiting 201

Before our last segment on recruiting, a few news and notes items.

Fitz will address the Big Ten Media at noon CST (1:00 EST) today.  It will be streamed live on the BTN website.

Also, Skip has a chance to sit down with Dan Persa on the eve of Media Day, where Dan will be one of three speakers on behalf of the Cats.  Dan spoke about his recovery in this piece.  One of the bast things to take from it is his attitude.  Hopefully he can translate that to on the field performance comparable to his 2010 season.

In the second segment on recruiting, today, EVR will look at the 2011 incoming Wildcat class, with a focus on when we can expect to see our new players on the field.  We will also examine the status of the developing 2012 class.

First, however, a follow up on yesterday’s post.  One of our readers (known last year as Tim the Skeptic) pointed out that there is a theory among the Rivals message board posters that there is nationwide “star inflation” across the nation.  Meaning that across the board there are more four star and three star players rated – and more players rated overall, which makes for more two stars.  Now, EVR neither has the time nor the data to analyze this, nor how it compares to NU.  But what EVR does know is that as recently as 2008, NU was consistently getting more 2-stars than 3 stars.  While in the 2010, 2011 and so far in the 2012 class, NU has six 2-star players TOTAL.  So even if there is star inflation, it would have to be an abnormally high level in order to out-pace NU’s recruiting improvements over the last three cycles.

Christian Jones, WR – Spring, TX – 6’3” 199 lbs. – 3 stars / 5.7 Rivals Rating:  Jones is probably the most likely player to see the field in 2011.  It is generally easier for WRs to get acclimated to an offense – and as we all know, NU uses a lot of receivers.  But aside from that, Jones is a big dude and a big talent and is the headliner of the 2011 class.  Christian also had offers from Arkansas, Stanford and Texas Tech (and Harvard).  Compare to: Kim Thompson – Thompson was a little smaller but had the same 40 time.  Thompson was more of a role player at NU.  Jones should be able to use his size to be a difference maker in the Wildcat offense.

Cameron Dickerson, WR – Oradell, NJ – 6’3” 195 – 3* / 5.5: Dickerson is basically the same build at Jones, and is actually a touch faster.  While he does not have blazing speed, his size allows him to play faster than he really is, as can be seen by this clip.  There is such a log jam at receiver that Dickerson will probably have to redshirt in 2011.  Although, Cameron did play some DB in high school, so we may see him on some special teams.  Cameron also received offers from Indiana and Vanderbilt (and Harvard).  Compare to: Rashad Lawrence – Lawrence saw some good time as a true freshman in 2010, standing just one inch shorter than Dickerson.

Xavier Youngblood-Ary, WR – Altamonte Springs, FL – 6’3” 180 – 3* / 5.5: XYA rounds out a trio of very tall WRs.  Together they are three of the five of the tallest freshman WRs NU has seen in 2002.  While this clip shows Xavier against some pretty bad pass defenses (seriously, the team must have had one pass play called “throw deep to Xavier”) the catches on the latter half of the video shows his field awareness and athleticism.  Xavier will probably play third chair in the trio – and is least likely to play in 2011, but should develop into a key player because… Compare to: Ross Lane – Ross was an inch taller and a tick slower than Xavier, but learned to use his tall from to be a great receiver in the NU offense.

Jordan Perkins, RB – Lodi, CA – 5’11” 177 – 3* / 5.6: Jordan was a key focus of the NU recruiting effort; and was the #39 ranked RB in the country by Rivals.  Perkins is a little tall for his weight (or a little light for his height), but he carries his awkward frame really well, as you can see in this clip.  He looks to have great field vision and breakaway speed.  Xavier will likely begin the year as a redshirt, but could easily see some action in case of an injury – especially with the departure of Arby Fields.  Compare to: Adonis Smith – Adonis was a great compliment to Mike Trumpy in 2010, carrying only 8 more pounds than Jordan at the same height.  All the more reason for Jordan to redshirt so he is not continually blocked by Smith.

Zack Oliver, QB – Baton Rouge, LA – 6’4” 220 – 3* / 5.6:  When it is all said and done, Zack has the potential to be the star of this class, though he will have to wait his turn.  Assuming he redshirts, he could be groomed to be the starter beginning in 2014, after Kain Colter graduates.  Zack will not be likely to run as much as we are used to from an NU quarterback, but his frame makes him more of a prototype QB than the Cats have seen in a long time.  But as can be seen by this clip he ran a shotgun / spread-style offense in high school – so he should be ready to adapt to the Wildcat offense. Compare to: NU doesn’t really have a comparable player from a size standpoint.  Evan Watkins is much bigger; Mike Kafka is a little smaller.  Zack is somewhere in between – and hopefully he resembles Kafka.

Jarrell Williams, DB – Oak Lawn, IL – 5’10” 165 – 3* /5.6: Jarrell was obviously the all everything player at his high school, as can be seen by his highlight clip.  While most of the highlights are in his role on offense, you can see his speed and his strength.  He can also make nice plays on the ball.  Make sure to check out the hit he makes at 1:55!  Fitz has suggested that he is blowing up the defense, so all of the positions are up for grabs.  Jarrell is probably the most likely defensive player to see time, especially in a dime set.  Jarrell selected NU over offers from Boston College and Minnesota.  Compare to: Marquice Cole – Jarrell and Marquice have the exact same height and weight.  Cole was an unrated “zero-star” recruit – and now he on the New York Jets roster.  Not bad.

Andrew Smith, LB – Cincinnati, OH – 6’2” 200 – 3* /5.5: For a school that has consistently put linebackers in the NFL, it is hard to believe that Smith is only the third LB commitment in the last two classes.  This means that a lot will be expected of him as the years go by.  Not so much this year.  Smith also played safety in high school, which is a testament to his agility.  He also lined up as a DE on occasion, which is something that the Cats did with Quentin Davie on occasion last season.  This clip shows that Smith is an absolute ball hawk.  He chose NU over Stanford, Minnesota, and his hometown of Cincinnati.  Compare to: Nick Roach – Nick was an inch shorter and a little bigger but is the best comparable as a somewhat undersized LB. 

Deonte Gibson, DE – Lakewood, OH – 6’3” 225 – 3* /5.6: Deonte’s highlight film shows that he has great quickness and speed.  He will need to work on his strength if he wants to be effective against Big Ten defenses.  But he should be a solid pass rusher and a stopper against an outside running game.  Gibson had one of the most impressive list of courters, receiving offers from Pittsburgh, Stanford, West Virginia, and Cincinnati.  Compare to: Kevin Watt – Kevin is an inch taller, but should be a great mentor for Deonte.

Other 2011 incoming Players:

Treyvon Green, RB – Rowlett, TX

Mark Szott, TE – Aurora, IL
Shane Mertz, OL – Hazlet, NJ
Jack Konopka, OL – Palatine, IL
Geoff Mogus, OL – Lakewood, OH
Matt Frazier, OL – Kankakee, IL
Nick VanHoose, DB – Urbana, OH
Max Capman, DE – Ponte Vedra, FL
CJ Robbins, DE – LaSalle, IL

Please do not think that these players are not going to be integral parts of the Wildcat program.  EVR simply does not know enough about them to make an individual write up.

As for the 2012 class, as this blog mentioned yesterday, it is currently ranked 49^th in the nation and already has 13 recruits.  Here is the list so far.

Name	Pos	Ht/Wt	Stars	RR
Adam DePietro	OL	6-5/270	3	5.6
Chris Fitzpatrick	OL	6-1/235	NR	NR
Joseph Jones	DB	6-1/200	2	5.4
Malin Jones	RB	6-2/190	3	5.7
Dean Lowry	DE	6-5/225	3	5.7
Connor Mahoney	DT	6-4/270	2	5.4
Mike McHugh	WR	6-2/185	3	5.5
Eric Olson	OL	6-6/265	3	5.6
Ian Park	OL	6-4/295	3	5.5
Kenton Playko	OL	6-5/270	3	5.5
Jack Schwaba	TE	6-5/240	3	5.5
Dan Vitale	ATH	6-2/205	2	5.4
Dwight White	DB	5-11/175	3	5.5

Of particular interest is Malin Jones, who committed last October, from Naperville Joliet Catholic.  Malin is a big strong running back, who could give the Cats a running game unlike what NU has seen in a while.  He has also been making news on his Rivals page, where he recently reconfirmed his commitment to NU, amazed with his powerlifting numbers, and even joined the recruiting efforts by focusing on recruiting other prospects.  Watch out for this kid!

Speaking of other prospects, NU has extended offers to the following upcoming seniors, who are getting closer to making a decision.  EVR will be watching this list closely, along with adding to the list as other NU offers narrow their decisions.

Name	Pos	Ht/Wt	Stars	RR	NU choice
Ifeadi Odenigbo	DE	6-4/210	4	5.9	Top-5
Seth Jacobs	LB	6-2/205	4	5.8	Top-14
Greg Kuhar	DT	6-3/265	3	5.6	Top-9
Jehu Chesson	WR	6-3/182	3	5.6	Top-14
Nana Kyeremeh	DB	5-10/159	3	5.5	Top-15
Martel Summers	DB	6-1/186	NR	NR	Top-6

Odenigbo is a potential program changer.  NU is competing against Cal, Notre Dame, OSU and Stanford for his commitment.  According to his Rivals page, Ifeadi was “blown away” by his visit to NU.

Over the weekend, EVR will begin previewing the 2011 season with a recap of Fitz's comments at Big Ten Media day, a look at Dan Persa and the quarterbacks, and a preview of the first two games.

Go Cats!

Recruiting 101

With Big Ten Media Days starting tomorrow, EVR realized that it needs to finish up the off-season recap.  And to do that, EVR is going to spend the next two posts talking about recruiting; first the recruiting rankings and how to evaluate a Northwestern recruiting class and second, a look at the incoming class of 2011 and the developing class of 2012.

First, a bit of information to pass along.  Coach Fitz will be speaking to the Big Ten Media at 1:00 EST, 12:00 CST on Thursday.  There are a number of places where this can be streamed, and those will be passed along once a list has been created.  No word yet on when NU representative players Dan Persa, Jordan Mabin, and Al Netter will speak.

An additional news note. Fitz appeared on Waddle and Silvy on Tuesday.  Part of his interview included pitching a bowl game in Chicago – most likely in Soldier Field or U.S. Cellular.  Obviously, in years past, bowl games have avoided cold weather climates.  But with the advent of the Pinstripe Bowl in New York City last year, the gates are now open to Chicago.  Fitz would be well-served to be a key spokesperson for this project.  Most importantly, Fitz said that Dan Persa is ahead of schedule in his recovery.  He is throwing every day and is 100% healed.  Now, do not confuse healed with recovered.  There is a significant amount of strength therapy that goes into the recovery from an achilles injury.  This will be the most important thing to keep an eye on when the Cats begin summer practice on August 8.  To read Tina’s story on the Fitz interview, click here.  Fitz was also interviewed by Skip Myslenski on the eve of Big ten Media days.  You can read it here.  Since most of the topics will surely be covered by the Media Day presser tomorrow, EVR will wait and analyze all Fitz topics on Friday.

On to recruiting – it can be very difficult for a fan of a school like Northwestern to fully evaluate NU’s recruiting class in any given year.  Observers are constantly perplexed with how Northwestern finishes 10^th in the Big Ten, annually, in the Rivals.com recruiting rankings – yet manages to finish in the middle of the Big Ten standings.  Rivals will attribute this to coaching and player development, as it did in a recent study.  But the team rankings have an inherent flaw in the system which continues to push up the bigger schools (with larger fan bases, who are more likely to subscribe to Rivals’ pay service) and push down the Northwesterns of the world. 

A few years ago, EVR read an article on how Rivals comes up with its team rankings.  Unfortunately, this cannot be found and reproduced – so EVR is working from memory here.  But the team rankings are based on number of commitments, the “star value” of commitments, number of commitments in the National top 100 player rankings, and number of commitments who are ranked at their individual position.  Each of these has a fatal flaw which sinks Northwestern.

Number of Commitments – It is easy to see why Northwestern is downgraded here.  Most big schools sign a full 25-man recruiting class, while NU generally comes in with anywhere from 17-20 players.  A number of factors go into this.  The first is the over-signing issue, which made national headlines over the offseason.  The Big Ten has long sense banned this practice, which basically allows schools to sign players that they do not have roster spots for.  Some of these players never make the team and others are eventually cut.  Their academic scholarship remains, but they are basically denied an opportunity to go somewhere else where they could play. The SEC, under considerable pressure, recently banned this practice as well.

Additionally, NU has considerably less juniors leaving for the NFL, drop-outs and transfers than most schools.  As a result, there are less scholarship spots to go around.  So while the big schools generally use the full 25-man class; NU generally does not. 

For example, NU is currently ranked 49^th in the nation in recruiting for 2012.  As Rivals points out, this is less because of the caliber of NU’s players, and more because of the size of NU’s upcoming senior class (21 players) and that the recruiting class is expected to be larger than normal.  So while it may appear on paper that NU has a better class, it may have less to do with talent and much more to do with numbers.

Star Value – As you are probably aware, Rivals rates most high school players with a star rating.  Five star players are “Blue-Chip” prospects.  This is an elite group – there are only 17 in the 2012 recruiting class.  The lowest rating is two-stars.  Players who are not evaluated are not given a star rating.  Now, there is some suggestion that Rivals will artificially, bump up the star rating of players committed, or interested, in the bigger schools (again, for the reasons stated above).  EVR happens to believe that this might be the case, although has no evidence to back this up.

More importantly is the inherent weakness in a system that divides 99% of the athletes rated into one of three categories.  Rivals, basically, considers its highest four-star athlete – in 2012 the 18^th best player in the country – to only be one step higher than the lowest ranked three-star, probably ranked somewhere around the 700 mark (that's a complete guess).  Rivals evaluates a team’s class based on an average star rating, which is basically meaningless to begin with.

Now, to its credit, Rivals has established its own “Rivals Rating” which is a scale of 4.9 to 6.1 (strange the one to thirteen wouldn’t suffice).  This is clearly a more accurate way of classifying the talent because a high four-star (a 6.0; the 6.1 rating is reserved for the Blue Chip five-star) is now more differentiated from the low three-star (5.5).  More on this rating system later – but nonetheless, Rivals continues to use the star system to determine the rank of teams.

Top 100 Players – This is an inherent compounding problem.  There are bonuses given to teams with commitments from the top 100 players, on top of the fact that they are the highest “starred” players to begin with.  The better teams get the better players – and now they get bonus points for it.  Again, another way to get the bigger schools to the top of the charts.

Ranked at position – There are some issues with this as well, although none of them are really a bias against anyone – it just doesn’t make sense.  In a particularly deep year at wide receiver, for instance, the 30^th ranked WR is going to be considerably better than the same ranked player in a weaker year.  Now, maybe there are enough players that this effect is more theoretical than anything else.  But it is still a random factor.  Also, Rivals splits rankings for some positions such as “Pro-Style” quarterback and “Dual-Threat” QB.  This means that your team’s class ranking could depend, in part, on the type of offense you choose to run.

So what does this all mean? – Basically, looking to see that NU was 11^th in the Big Ten and missed the top 50 in the national rankings – doesn’t tell us a whole lot about NU’s class.  But what we can do – and what I propose is the best way to evaluate a recruiting class – is to compare NU’s 2011 class to past NU recruiting classes.  This way, there is an apples to apples comparison -- and eliminates any bias based on traditional strength of program.

The following chart looks back at NU recruiting classes going back to 2002.  Each class will have the average stars, average rivals rating, and NU’s winning percentage in the classes 3^rd, 4^th, and 5^th seasons – when most of the players would see significant action and contribute in leadership roles.

Year	Avg*	AvgRR	Y3	Y4	Y5	Total	Highest Ranked Player
2002	2.286	N/A	0.500	0.583	0.333	0.472	Loren Howard (4-star)
2003	2.364	N/A	0.583	0.333	0.500	0.472	Trevor Rees
2004	2.154	5.223	0.333	0.500	0.692	0.514	C.J. Bacher
2005	2.500	5.365	0.500	0.692	0.615	0.605	Chris Jeske
2006	2.235	5.306	0.692	0.615	0.538	0.615	Quentin Davie
2007	2.737	5.484	0.615	0.538			Jordan Mabin
2008	2.300	5.270	0.538				Brian Mulroe
2009	2.667	5.494					Patrick Ward (4-star)
2010	2.941	5.571					Kain Colter
2011	2.882	5.541					Christian Jones
2012	2.750	5.525					Malin Jones

A few observations.  First, the incoming 2011 class is the second highest rated class in the last 10 years, second only to 2010.   And 2012 is shaping up to be just as good.  But also, note that 2012, which is currently ranked 49^th nationally, does not have as high ratings as 2010 and 2011, which finished much lower.  Again, because the class will be bigger.

Also, the lowest ranked class, 2004, gave us the fifth-year seniors who finished 9-4 in 2008.  This class included: C.J. Bacher, Ross Lane, Joel Belding and Kevin Mims.  So not every class rank tells the story.  Same with the 2006 class, which just graduated with the best winning percentage, despite the second-lowest recruiting class.  This class included: Stefan Demos, Nate Williams, Sidney Stewart, Marshall Thomas, and Justan Vaughn, along with Sherrick McManis, Corbin Bryant, and Quentin Davie, who are currently on NFL rosters.  Not too bad.  These two classes are certainly a tick in the column for player development and coaching.  But it could also be NU’s ability to find a diamond in the rough – or a bias inherent in the system against players who are not recruited heavily by larger schools.

And also, what is the reason for the relatively better classes recently.  Does success indeed breed more success?  Whatever the reason, it is clear that NU is bringing in a relatively higher level of athlete into the program.  It remains to be seen what the Cats are able to do on the field.

This post was not designed to provide answers.  It was designed to inform and intrigue.  To the average fan, recruiting just sort of happens, and no one really pays attention.  To even the trained fan, recruiting is generally followed for one week per year, and then the players are forgotten.  EVR plans to continue to follow recruiting a little closer this year. In doing so, EVR hopes to try to educate its readers about the future of NU football, so that when Christian Jones is an All Big Ten Wideout in 2014, you have a better idea of how he got there.   

Tomorrow’s post will look at the 2011 class, with a focus on the players who could see playing time in 2011.  EVR will also give an update on the 2012 class.