Best Case Scenario
Persa is 100% by the Illinois game; the running game finds its stride; and the linebackers are able to use their speed for good instead of evil. The Cats will every non-conference game and every home game. They win at IU and split between Iowa and Illinois. But a 10-2 record falls just short of the Big Ten Title game after losing the head-to-head game against Nebraska. This results in a return to the Outback Bowl.Worst Case Scenario
Persa never completely regains form and Colter finds he is not ready for prime time. RBs and LBs maintain the status quo. After a loss at Boston College, the Cats are scrambling to count wins to get bowl eligible, but sniff it out by pulling off a big win against Michigan. 6-6 is a highly disappointing year which scores the Pizza Bowl in Detroit.Effect of Persa’s Injury
EVR is still of the opinion that the coaching staff is being intentionally coy about the Dan Persa situation. Apparently, no one except the staff will know the answer until Saturday. Read up on the latest and make your own judgment: Trib; Sun Times; Daily Herald. For purposes of this prediction EVR is working under the assumption that at the very least, Persa is at full strength by the Illinois game on October 1.Effect of Competition
If there is one thing EVR picked up doing the brief game previews, it is that the Big Ten, overall, is going to be down this year. Only three teams should be improved – Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Illinois. Only two may maintain the status quo – Michigan and Penn State. Everyone else has holes to fill – major holes to fill – and will find it difficult to match their 2010 performance. EVR believes that NU has improved slightly over 2010 on paper – and that will translate into being able to take advantage of their competition.Game by Game
Boston College: Two weeks ago, EVR was ready to call this for the Eagles. But the injuries and the players leaving the team has decimated this roster. Persa and Colter split time by design, not by necessity. There are a lot of mismatches here – resulting in a chess match between coaches. BC keeps it close but NU wins by less than a touchdown. (1-0)EIU: Fitz learned his lesson long ago about FCS teams. And EIU may be the least talented team that NU has faced. The Cats will have a chance to empty the benches in this one; winning by at least 23 points. (2-0)
Army: There will be a lot of distractions here: the pomp and circumstance of West Point, the quirky offense, and playing Army in the first game after the 9/11 anniversary. (Ironically, the Cats were supposed to play Navy in the game which was cancelled after 9/11/01). But after a slow first half, the Cats offense imposes their will against a thin Army Defense and win by two touchdowns. (3-0)Illinois: Despite the week off and probably having Persa at full strength, Illinois is running smooth at this point in the season. This time it will be Scheelhaase who will pick apart the NU defense, rather than the run game. The Cats are unable to get a running game together and the Illini win by 14. (3-1) (0-1)
Michigan: Michigan will make its first road trip of the year to play under the lights at Ryan Field. The Cats will be ready to pounce on the still young and inexperienced defense. Hoke will eventually have this Michigan team going in the right direction, but it does not start on this October night. The Cats win in a surprisingly comfortable way. (4-1) (1-1)Iowa: Sometimes you just have a team’s number. Iowa week will focus too much on the law of averages and not enough on the actual make-up of the teams. When it comes down to it, Iowa simply lost too much talent on defense and will be unable to contain Persa and company long enough. In the end, Iowa is not, indeed, “due”, and despite a last minute effort, the Cats escape with a win. (5-1) (2-1)
Penn State: As much as EVR believes that the Cats are a better team on paper, the thought of sweeping Michigan-Iowa-Penn State overwhelms the team during preparation. They come out unfocused and sloppy. JoePa’s team is ready to play under the lights and takes it to the Cats by 14. (5-2) (2-2)Indiana: While previous trips to Bloomington have not been pretty for the Cats, the Kevin Wilson rebuilding year is not yet ready for a win against NU. The Hoosiers are their usual scrappy selves and will keep the game uncomfortably close – but the Cats prevail by 13. (6-2) (3-2)
Nebraska: EVR does not see this going well at all. The Cats may stay in the game, and may even lead into the second quarter. But like so many games against the dominant Buckeye teams of the last six years, a late second quarter score kills the Cats momentum and the second half is a complete debacle. Nebraska wins by 24, at least. (6-3) (3-3)Rice: NU takes out its aggression on a Rice team that is much the same as what the Cats saw last season. The result should be much the same. The defensive performance is solid and the Cats cruise to a 17 point win. (7-3) (3-3)
Minnesota: Much like Indiana, Jerry Kill may eventually have this team on the right track. But with the Cats now playing to get into a New Year’s Day Bowl, they will not fall victim to the upset. The Gophers offensive line is unable to protect their quarterback and the Cats offensive is efficient against a poorly executing defense. A two touchdown victory for the Cats. (8-3) (4-3)Michigan State: If this game were played earlier in the season, EVR would be ready to pick the Cats. MSU has a lot of holes to fill with a lot of youth on the offensive line and the defense. But by week 12, Dantonio will have his young guys playing like veterans and the offensive skill positions will just be too much for the Cats. (8-4) (4-4)
As for where this plays out in the Big Ten race; stay tuned tomorrow for the conference prediction.Go Cats!
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