About EVR

"Expect Victory" is the well known battle cry of the Gary Barnett era Wildcats; a mantra continued today by Coach Fitz. "Victory Right" is, of course, the most recognizable single play in Northwestern Football history; capping off a 21-point comeback at Minnesota in 2000. "Expect Victory Right" is what Northwesten fans have become accustomed to as followers of the Cardiac Cats; another Victory Right game could happen any given saturday. It is also a nod to how Coach Fitz is dedicated to winning the "Right" way.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Positive Injury Report; the Battle for Chicago; and Big Ten Power Rankings

The Northwestern Wildcats made good use of their bye week by getting themselves well.  Four Wildcat players find themselves back on the two-deep depth chart for Illinois, and a fifth may play Saturday as well.  The Cats will have their work cut out for them in another road test, so this could not have come at a better time.
Chicagonow.com
The biggest news is, of course, Dan Persa.  Persa should be the difference maker who will electrify an offense that was stagnant at best against Army.  The only concerns with Dan will be adjusting to the speed of play and keeping him from being too excited about the game.  Fitz will not commit that Dan will take all of the snaps, but the presumption is that if he feels well enough, he will.  But expect Colter to see the ball in some way, as his speed is too good to not utilize.
One of the more exciting returns is not a return at all but the Wildcat debut of redshirt freshman linebacker Collin Ellis.  Ellis has been highly touted by the coaching staff and should make an impact on the defense.  He will begin by backing up Ben Johnson, but the coaches expect Ellis to get into the game.  Anticipate seeing Ellis as the starter by homecoming.
Jack DiNardo will be back in his starting role on the defensive line.  After a strong effort against Boston College, Jack sat out the last two games.  Against the dynamic offense of the Illini, DiNardo’s stability in the middle will be necessary.
David Arnold will return but will not regain his starting spot as Ibraheim Campbell appears to won the job outright.  But Arnold will certainly see playing time, especially in running situations.  Arnold is a big hitter and will be needed to stop the Illini backs from breaking the big one.
Bostonherald.com
Finally, there is no official word yet on Adonis Smith.  He is not listed on the two-deep, but he may simply be the third guy behind Trumpy and Schmidt.  Smith is still the best back at grinding out the extra yard in a pack and would have been helpful in the failed third-and-short situations against Army.
Both the coaches and the players have ratcheted up the Northwestern-Illinois rivalry a bit this week.  It seems as though the Illini have taken offense to the Wildcats claim of being “Chicago’s Big Ten Team.”  It also seems that the Wildcats are pretty serious about that claim.  The Chicago media has had a field day with this war of words and this is perhaps exactly what this rivalry needs.  Many of the games over the last 10 years have been blowouts, and the closer games generally were comebacks that fell short – rather than outright barnburners.  Perhaps the early season matchup is the key – the last three NU-Illinois games played in October have all been decided by three points.
Most fans look at a team like Northwestern, look at the offense’s performance against Army, and they immediately blame the playcalling.  The presumption is that Northwestern is a bigger, faster, and stronger team, and that they should have no problems moving the ball against Army.  But the average fan does not know a thing about playcalling, it is just the scapegoat. 
Now, EVR does not pretend to know anything about offensive playcalling either, but after reviewing the play chart for the Army game, a few interesting things popped out.
OC Mick McCall
cstv.com
NU ran 23 plays on first down against Army.  They called 8 runs and 15 passes, although two of the runs were Colter runs, which may have been initially called as passes.  There is no way of knowing without re-watching the entire game, but assume for sake of argument that they were designed runs.  In the first half, the Cats passed on first down and ran on the following second down five times – and converted (eventually) the first down each time.  The Cats also threw a first down pass complete for a first down.  This means that six of the ten first half first downs were the result of passing on first down, and primarily the result of running on the following second down.
The statistics very clearly support this.  For the game, NU was 9-14 with one sack passing the ball on first down, for an average of 7.8 yards per play call.  This leaves the cats with a second and short (less than 3) – where the Cats averaged 3.7 yards per carry.  Even when the pass was incomplete, the Cats averaged 14 yards per carry on 2nd and long (7-10 yards).  On the other hand, passing in those situations netted a combined 2-6 with a sack.  Clearly, the pass on first / run on second plan was having success.
But in the second half, the Cats passed on first down and ran on the following second down only once.  It was not successful primarily because of a third down penalty.  This playcalling progression was the bread and butter of the team in the first half, and was completely abandoned in the second half.  Perhaps it was panic.  But there were no situations, except for the final drive, where the score and time situation was any different than the first half.  The Cats spend most of the game down by 7 points; the game plan should have been consistent throughout.
Now whether or not the pass-run combo will work against Illinois, no one knows.  But hopefully the coaching staff will look to their own charts and see what is working for them rather than continuing to try to reinvent the wheel.
Legends Division
1 Nebraska: Nebraska escaped its trap game on Saturday with a solid victory in Laramie against Wyoming.  After two sluggish performances, the Huskers showed a more dominant face, which they will need moving forward to the Big Ten season.  While Nebraska and Wisconsin may not be the sexiest matchup of the weekend, it is certainly the most important – and may not be the only matchup of the year.
2 Michigan State: Michigan State got back in the saddle on Saturday with a commanding 47-7 win over Central Michigan.  The young defense will have an interesting matchup against the youngest quarterback in the conference when they face the Buckeyes on Saturday.  Given that this is a down year for OSU, this is Sparty’s chance to prove that he belongs in the upper tier of the conference.
3 Michigan: There was no intent to move Michigan up to 3 until after they played Northwestern on the field, but the defensive performance against San Diego State could not be ignored.  Yes, the Big Ten opponents will provide more competition on both sides of the ball; and Denard Robinson will need to get better at passing the ball (two more picks against SDSU).  But Blue has passed the first tests of the year and earned this spot.
4 Northwestern (-1): A statistic posted on Twitter over the weekend which said that NU’s winning percentage is a full .200 higher in years when they are “upset” during the season than years when they are not – since 1995.  While this is certainly testament to the annual Wildcat upset, it is also demonstrative of NU’s resolve.  The Cats get an army (sorry) of players back for the Illinois game and had two weeks to prepare; so they may be primed for an upset.
5 Iowa: Iowa was impressive against a relatively unimpressive team.  But this is a team that will still have problems.  After a bye week the Hawkeyes have Penn State and Northwestern, so if they want to prove that they belong in the top half of the league, they will have their chance.
6 Minnesota: After an embarrassing loss to North Dakota State, the Gophers are staring down the potential for a 1-11 season – and they do not play Indiana and have Purdue on the road.  With a coach that is going through some health problems right now, this could be a dark time for the Minnesota program.
Leaders Division
1 Wisconsin: Madison hosts Gameday on Saturday as the Badgers welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten.  Wisconsin is more talented on both sides of the ball and their dynamic offense should be able to put up some points against a Nebraska defense that has been weaker than expected.  The Badgers have yet to show their weakness, if they have one.  Stopping Taylor Martinez might just be the test to see if Bucky belongs in the national title discussion.
2 Illinois: The Illini narrowly avoided a choke with a 23-20 victory over Western Michigan.  The secondary was thrashed for over 300 yards passing, which will perk the ears of offensive coordinators across the conference.  Illinois is the deserved favorites this weekend, but if Dan Persa can get things going through the air, it could be a dogfight to determine Chicago’s Big Ten Team.
3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes won handily against Colorado last weekend and are now bracing for a near impossible stretch against the conference’s best four teams.  MSU is their only opponent of the bunch where they will be without the Tattoo Four.  If they can sneak out a win Saturday, OSU will be back in the discussion.
4 Penn State: Penn State for the first time all season looked like a Penn State team as they rolled over an Eastern Illinois team who was simply overmatched.  Penn State still insists on alternating quarterbacks, which will eventually be their undoing.  The Lions have a chance to get hot with games against Indiana, Iowa and Purdue upcoming.
5 Purdue: The Boilers had the week off and now host Notre Dame on Saturday.  If Purdue can force turnovers, they have a chance.  But Notre Dame is a supremely more talented team, and this could finally be the blowout that Irish fans are thirsting for.  Either way, Purdue seems like it may rise above Indiana and Minnesota at the bottom of the Big Ten.
6 Indiana (-1): Like Minnesota, the Hoosiers are facing a 1-11 season now that they have lost to both Ball State and North Texas.  North Texas was actually up 24-0 in the fourth quarter before a fierce IU comeback fell short.  Bottom line, this is a bad team.
Go Cats!

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