The Northwestern Wildcats wrapped up Camp Kenosha on Saturday with a spirited scrimmage, which unfortunately did not feature many of the starters. What it did highlight was NU’s depth and the future of the program. The fact that Fitz made this personnel decision for the scrimmage is a sign of where he has brought this program. First, the team indeed has the depth to display a worthwhile scrimmage. Second, the scrimmage is open to the public and he is forward thinking enough to not give anything away. Third, Fitz has seen what he needs to see out of the starting 22 and wanted to see what the younger guys can do.
The Cats emerged from their annual trip to Kenosha relatively injury free. Arby Fields had been described as “dinged up” but should be ready to start the opened in Nashville. Fitz has opined that Arby will be back to full speed by the end of this week. There is still no timetable on the injuries to David Arnold or Roderick Goodlow. The Cats will try to stay injury free during one more week of summer camp, now, before beginning a regular schedule of “game week” practice next week. Read Skip Myslensky's review of Camp Kenosha on nusports.com.
Games five-eight: A Critical Juncture
A good start is important, and the toughest four games are at the end. But there is no question that the most important four games of the season come in October – at least when determining whether this season will be a success in the eyes of the program and the fans. All four are games that the Cats have had problems with in the last few years. At least three of them are expected by the pundits to improve upon their breakthrough seasons in 2009. But this stretch is critical to separate Bowl Eligibility from January Football. In short, last year, NU escaped this stretch at 5-3 and had to knock off undefeated Iowa and Wisconsin to get to the Outback Bowl. It would be nice to not have to rely on those wins in 2010. Thanks to Rivals.com for the depth chart info.
Minnesota: NU makes its first trip to Minnesota’s new outdoor stadium on October 2. Minnesota took a bit of a step backwards last year and the Cats’ loss to the Gophers in 2009 was considered by many to be a “bad” loss, especially at home. The key to Minnesota’s season is whether its offense can find its 2008 form. Adam Weber took a major step backwards last year, and his all-everything WR Eric Decker will no longer be a target. The Gophers’ O-Line has a lot of experience and four seniors, which should be the strength of the offense. The Gophers open with three cupcakes and a little team from Los Angeles, so they will both have time to gel and be battle-tested before the NU game.
NU, barring injury, should have its offense figured out by this game. This should help against a defense that, while experienced, has not demonstrated a great deal of ability to stop teams. That said, every starter on the Minnesota defensive depth chart is a senior. Should be a battle. On defense, the Cats should be able to handle Weber’s attack, but if Minnesota can get the running game going, it could spell trouble.
NU should be favored to win this game, but it will certainly not be easy. This senior-laden team will be playing with a lot of pride.
Purdue: NU plays its third night game of the season under the lights against Purdue. This has the potential to be a marquee matchup in the Big Ten as both teams could enter the game undefeated. Purdue comes in off a bye week, which is always trouble. Not to mention the fact that NU has not exactly faired well in home night games. Robert Marve is the new kid on the block at QB, but he is apparently very talented and quick to improvise. He will need it, as the Purdue offensive line is relatively young and inexperienced. But if the NU front seven cannot get pressure on Marve, and he has time to get it to his stud receivers, NU’s corners will be tested all day. The Kevin Smith – Jordan Mabin battle will be one to watch all day.
Purdue’s defense, never a strength of theirs, takes a step backwards this year as they have a lot of new faces and inexperience on this side of the ball. Purdue looks to be starting five defenders who are either sophomores or freshmen. NU’s veteran offense should be in full form by week six. This could either be a high-scoring affair for both teams, or a blowout by NU, but the Cats should not have trouble scoring points against this bunch.
If one thing can be said about the NU-Purdue match-ups over the years, the best team usually wins. In a series with very few upsets, the winner of this game should carry a lot of confidence moving into the second half of the season.
Michigan State: NU takes a much-needed week off before the homecoming game against MSU. The Cats have had a great deal of success in homecoming games over the last fifteen years. And the game against the Spartans is always entertaining. Kirk Cousins returns as the leader of this offense, albeit without some of his primary weapons that tore apart the Cats in the ’08 and ’09 affairs. Three seniors on the O-Line should be able to make up for the youth at the guard position. With the exception of Larry Caper, there are many new faces that we will all learn about this season. This match-up against the Wildcat defense will be fun to watch. The NU linebackers could be a key to this game by holding Caper in check.
But everyone knows that the strength of the MSU team is the defensive side of the ball, and especially Big Ten Player of the Year Greg Jones. Jones has the ability to absolutely terrorize an offense. And if the Cats have not figured out the running game by week seven, Jones will only add to these problems. With that said, Sparty starts three sophomores on the D-Line, so Persa should have some time to throw. If he can find the mismatch against sophomore CB Johnny Adams, or catch one of the smaller defenders covering Dunsmore, the passing game should have some successes here.
Clearly, this will be NU’s toughest opponent to date. While there are some holes, MSU will have a lot of time before October 23 to figure them out. This will be a battle.
Indiana: Indiana is the sexy team this year to have a Big Ten breakout. It also has revenge on its mind after blowing a 25-point lead in 2009. Add this to the potential for a night game on Halloween weekend, and Bloomington will be rocking for this game. But I do not know that I am drinking the Indiana Kool-Aid just yet. Ben Chappell’s Show returns with Darius Willis and Tandon Doss, who dismantled the NU defense in the first 20 minutes last season. But the offensive line is a shell of its 2009 form, starting two sophomores and a frosh. Chappell may not have the time that he enjoyed last year and may have to rely on his legs a lot more than the team wants.
On defense, the front seven is young and inexperienced. Runs, short passes, and screens should eat these guys alive. The defensive backs are talented veterans, but cannot be baited too much into helping out. Persa should be a well-oiled machine by then, and could provide a command performance here.
Do not get me wrong, I like what the program at IU has done over the last few years. I spent 3 years in Bloomington, and the administration has finally managed to make football somewhat relevant. But this is not the year to be optimistic, as there is just too much youth in key positions.
Outlook: How important is this stretch of games? In 2009, the Cats were 4-3 and down 28-3 against Indiana – in grave danger of going 1-3 in this stretch. NU mounted a fierce comeback and ended up playing on New Years Day. In 2008, an upset loss to Indiana prevented NU from a 10-win season and a place on New Years Day; but a last-second win against Minnesota put them right back on track. There is no reason to believe that this year will be any different.
4-0: This is a very difficult stretch. Possible, but not likely. 8% chance of 4-0.
3-1: Hard to point to which game would be the one loss. This would lead to a very impressive 7-1 start. 45%
2-2: Would make it hard to get back to eight wins here, but a likely result given the schedule. 35%
1-3: If the Cats are not on track offensively by the Minnesota game, it will be a long October (and a longer November). 10%
0-4: Scary thing is, I can envision scenarios where this is possible. 2%
As the season draws near, here is my schedule for the next two weeks:
Friday August 27: Camp wrap-up; preview of games 9-12
Tuesday August 31: Final predictions of NU season
Wednesday September 1: First edition of Big Ten Wednesday; Big Ten preview.
Thursday September 2: National Preview
Friday September 3: First edition of Gameday Preview
Sunday September 5: First edition of Sunday Morning Superback
Questions, Comments? johnknublog@gmail.com
Go Cats!
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