It is game week in Evanston, Illinois, and as promised, I have my season prediction. But first some news and notes.
To begin, Teddy Greenstein gives his season preview. Like the Cats themselves, the story focuses on the Bowl Game drought, and more importantly the desire to get back to the Rose Bowl. I wonder whether all of the focus on winning a Bowl Game is a good goal for such a relatively young team. Yes, focus on the Rose Bowl, which is a tangible goal that can be measured in wins and losses during the season. But concentrating on winning a game that is not yet on the schedule (and may be a monumental mismatch) is not healthy at this point in the season. Teddy does not give a win-loss prediction in his preview.
It is no secret that for the Wildcats to succeed this year, the running game needs to be better. Tina Akouris reports on the running backs efforts to make this happen in the Sun Times today. Arby Fields is back to full strength, although had on the red “no hits” jersey in practice on Monday. The official “two-deep” depth chart lists Fields, along with Schmidt and Simmons as co-starters for Saturday. Fitz suggests that this is a product of the forecasted humidity and the Vandy linebacker corps more than anything else. The Commodore’s LBs have always been a strength in Nashville and will be a good test for the Cats’ revamped running game.
The counterpart to the Cats’ tailback trio is the veteran offensive line which returns all five starters from 2009. Skip Myslenski reports on the positive mental attitude of the offensive line. “Hog Pride” as the players call it. There is depth at this position as well, which should help in the heat and humidity on Saturday night.
On the other side of the ball, Lindsay Willhite breaks down the Wildcat defensive line and its life after Corey Wootton. The depth of this group will really help in late-season games. If they can stay healthy, this group can really put pressure on opposing QBs and allow our linebackers to stop the run.
In case you missed it, the Wrigley Field game has been dubbed the Allstate Wrigleyville Classic. While I am not terribly excited about the name, or the corporate sponsorship in general, the publicity will be nice. It appears that ticket sales for this game are pointing towards a sellout, which is great news, considering that this was a concern when the game was announced. Also, the stats on season ticket sales continue to climb and impress. The team’s success, along with the marketing push, appears to be accomplishing goals.
Shocking. Absolutely shocking. The Keg of Evanston has been named the #9 Best College Bar in America.
Also, Congrats to Luke Donald for making the Ryder Cup team. He was named a Captains selection on Sunday, being picked over the likes of Paul Casey and Justin Rose. Unfortunately, Luke, I will not be able to bring myself to root you on. But we wish you continued good success in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. For those who missed it, Luke shot an amazing 28 on the front nine on Sunday.
PREDICTION
After reviewing the players and the opponents; reading about camp standouts and pesky injuries; hearing the coaches' banter and the pundits' retorts; it is finally time for football. And while the "preseason prediction" is often more of a rite of autumn than any genuine practice of prognostication; it is part of the fabric of the game, and so I will participate.
I have a much different view of this team than when I embarked on this journey three months ago. I saw 13 returning starters and expected a veteran team; only to find that only six seniors will be part of the starting 22. This young team is also much deeper than I had anticipated. There are many backups on the two-deep that have seen playing time. While this bodes well for 2011, it will be the ability of leaders to emerge that will dictate the success of this squad in 2010.
One of the greatest strengths of this NU team is its balance. The majority of the teams on the Cats schedule have glaring weaknesses on one side of the ball. This will give NU a decided advantage in these games.
The traditionally successful programs start with the O line and the front seven on D -- and work the rest of the pieces around that base. Fitz and his staff are building the team in this model and this is where it pays off.
Three Sure Things:
The running game will be better. With a returning O line and a new commitment to the running game, the Cats should be able to take enough pressure off of Persa that he will be able to evolve at an appropriate pace. They will still struggle against the better run defenses -- but it will be much more of a factor in '10.
The D line will control games. Losing Corey Wootton was a major loss, but there is a lot of skill and experience in the front four. So much so that the Cats seem to have scrapped the idea of using a 3-4 this year because of the depth at D Tackle. This will be a major plus as the season drags on. A deep rotation on the D line will win some games in the trenches.
Demos will be vindicated. Remember that Demos won two games for the Cats last season with last second kicks. And while his brutal day in Tampa made National news, true fans know how valuable he was. He did not miss a FG (other than a blocked kick) until the Illinois game last season. And recall that the Cats are only five years removed from holding their breath on extra points. Stefan will be able to keep the Cats in close games, and may even be called upon to won a big one for them. An All-Conference award would be a nice finish to his career at NU.
Three big question marks:
Obviously Persa is the biggest question of all. Everything that comes out of camp says that he is in the same position and Kafka and makes the comparison. And I do not doubt the facts. But the fact is that Dan Persa is not Mike Kafka and he is going to be better at some things and worse at others. The limited film that I have seen shows that he throws a good out, corner, and hitch. But the offense depends on the slant and the cross, not to mention the post. Persa needs to get the confidence to throw over the middle of the field. Over time the Wildcat spread has proven to be somewhat of a system offense, with many QBs able to succeed. Whether Dan can continue that legacy remains to be seen.
Can the DBs grow up quickly? NU graduated the services of McManis, Smith, and Phillips; so Jordan Mabin will need to lead this group forward. And let's be honest, while last year’s DBs were undoubtedly playmakers, they also gave up the big play as well. The question remains whether this young crop can contain Big Ten WRs and allow the front seven to strut their stuff. Mabin was one of the most improved players from between the Wisconsin game and the Outback Bowl and appears ready to take the reins. The injury to David Arnold will be problematic, especially if it lingers into the conference schedule. The offense should be decent, but not good enough to win a bunch of track meets. This unit is key.
Can Fitz temper expectations? NU has had a lot of good things said about its program in the last eight months. Maybe more so than any time in recent history. Even after the '95 season, the Cats were still a novelty, and not a program on the rise -- as they are cast by the media today. The problem is, I do not know that this team is good enough to win more games than they won last year, they might not win a bowl, and they may disappoint some people. Fitz's greatest challenge this season will be keeping the bus moving forward. Minor disappointments are not program killers, small setbacks cannot be allowed to destroy this team. Fitz must keep the team, the fans, the recruits, and most of all, himself, on the same track moving forward. In all reality this team is built for a Big Ten Championship run in 2011. It just needs to keep the positive momentum simmering until then.
In the final analysis, I think this is another 8-4 team. I can see a 6-0 start, but the Cats will lose 4 in the second half, including three of the last four. This finish will hurt Bowl placement.
I think the best case scenario is 10-2 with losses to PSU and Wisconsin, and a return to Florida, either in the Capital One, Outback, or Gator Bowl.
Worst case is 6-6. Going 2-6 in the conference would tie for Fitz's worst performance, and he would find that unacceptable. But the youth on this team may show their true colors in the end.
As for where the Cats finish among the rest of the conference, I will take a look at that tomorrow.
Go Cats.
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