The 2010 version of the Northwestern Wildcats took to the field for the first time Monday. The last time the nation saw the Cats was on New Years Day. Since then, the team has read a lot about the disappointment of the Outback Bowl; the strong recruiting class; Big Ten expansion; the growing expectations of the program; and the question marks at key positions. Finally, the players evolve out of a newsworthy offseason and begin their preparation for 2010.
Before I start my preview of the first third of the season, a few items of note since my last post:
Big Ten Championship game in Indy. This did not really come as a surprise to many, as the town is custom-built for a major sporting event. NU blogger Sippin on Purple does not agree. I like the central location and (blasphemy, I know) the retractable roof. Not to protect the teams from the normal cold and the snow, mind you; I just don’t think that the Rose Bowl representative should be decided in a monsoon or a blizzard. We’ve proven we can play in the bad weather; let’s make the showcase event at least watchable.
Division speculation. While there continues to be more support for the strict geographical split, Dennis Dodd adds a pretty sound option on his CBS.sportsline blog: Dodd favors splitting the rivalries, such as OSU-Michigan. While, admittedly I’d like to keep the budding rivalry with Wisconsin; this would be an acceptable result from an NU standpoint. Really, any scenario that keeps the Buckeyes on the opposite side would satisfy me.
Skip’s thinking Arby too: NUsports.com contributor Skip Myslenski took a great interview with Arby Fields. Arby says he is refocused and ready to be the feature back. It remains to be seen whether he can translate this new mindset onto the field; but you have to love the positive outlook.
Now to the season preview: Everyone knows that NU has struggled with the first part of the season, and non-conference games in general. Prior to 2008, NU had not started 4-0 since 1962. And the recent losses to Syracuse, Duke, New Hampshire, and Hawaii only highlight the program’s non conference problems. But Fitz has never lost an opener and is 12-4 in non-conference regular season games. Either way you cut it, these games are critical for a strong run in 2010. Note that this is only a brief overview; in-depth previews will be provided on the Friday before each game.
Vanderbilt: Vandy has had a horrible 18 months since winning the 2008 Music City Bowl. The team went 2-10 last season and was absolutely anemic on offense. Vandy was 0-8 in the SEC. During this past offseason, their top-rated recruit was shot. And then, seven weeks before the season, their coach retired after eight of the most successful years in program history. This is a program in disarray and looks to be the only program worse than Tennessee in the SEC this year.
NU should really match well against Vandy’s weaknesses. As mentioned, the Commodore offense was deplorable last season and does not have the tools to show much improvement. The Wildcat defense, while losing key starters, has a lot of experience. Expect to see a lot of pressure on the Vandy QB, especially if NU takes an early lead. Vandy’s strength is their defense, which will be a nice test for Dan Persa and Arby Fields to get their feet wet. But as mentioned before, Fitz has been able to prepare the NU offense in his openers, so the 2010 Cats should be in good shape for a tough, but relatively smooth maiden voyage.
Illinois State: Admittedly, I don’t know anything about Illinois State football. According to Wikipedia they are the “Redbirds” and play in the Missouri Valley Conference. 2009 was their last winning season since 2006, finishing 6-5. They won their final game by beating #9 Northern Iowa. You may recall the Iowa required two blocked field goals in the final seconds to beat Northern Iowa last year. Other than that, I do not have much else to say here. Losing to an FCS team (again) would set the Cats back 5 years.
Rice: While most fans are pointing to weeks one or four as the dangerous game, my money is on Rice for the game that concerns me the most. At night game, in Texas, after (hopefully) a 2-0 start is a recipe for disaster – IF – we are dealing with the same ‘old Cats. But if the offense is thriving by week three, the Cats really should not have any problems.
Rice went 2-10 last year, beating only UTEP and Tulane after starting 0-9. One of their losses was a 36-17 loss to Vanderbilt’s “anemic” offense. All in all, Rice held only one opponent under 27 points last year; but they play in a conference where offense is king. If the Cats offense sputters, they could be in trouble. But expect the defense to show the Owls the door early on.
Central Michigan: CMU was a late addition to the schedule in a space that was vacant until very late in the scheduling process. Last season the team finished 12-2, including a MAC title and a win against Troy in the GMAC Bowl. The Chippewas have won 39 games over the last four seasons – but primarily due to Chicago Bears QB Dan LeFevour. It stands to reason that CMU is a “system” offense, and may be able to plug in a new QB quickly. But it is unlikely that the new guy can be ready for a Big Ten defense by week four.
The Cats have had problems against the MAC, no doubt. The only MAC game in the Fitz era that was a no-doubter was the opener in 2006 against Miami. I think the reason is that MAC teams really get “up” for games against Big Ten foes. They are playing against a lot of guys that they played against in high school and want to prove that they were overlooked. That said, Fitz hasn’t let his teams fall into that trap. Expect the Cats to win their eighth straight against MAC opponents.
Outlook: The Cats have some challenges in the first four games. But if the program really is where Fitz tells us it is, they have to start off 4-0. No excuses. The schedule as a whole is set up for a deep run for the Cats, as we will continue to look at next week. A fast start is critical to the season’s success.
4-0: this is what is expected, but nonetheless will be a load off the player’s backs. 70% chance of 4-0.
3-1: quite frankly, wouldn’t surprise anyone; NU has shown they can overcome this. 26%.
2-2: disastrous, would take a miracle to achieve a winning record from here. 3%
1-3: 2011 recruits start de-committing, publicly. Big Ten announces they are forming a committee to retract the Big Ten back to 11 teams. <1%
0-4: Hey, at least no one will be trying to lure Fitz away any more. <1%
Check back this weekend when I’ll give a review of the first week of practice.
Go Cats!
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