Welcome to the Big Ten, Nebraska

I was planning to follow up my preview of the offense with a defensive preview. But I would be remiss if I did not post my thoughts on the historical addition of Nebraska to the Big Ten. While the mainstream media has overdone this story, I wanted to focus on how the addition of Nebraska will affect Northwestern directly.

We are told that there will eventually be financial benefits to each school in the form of higher television revenues and bowl payouts. And this will undoubtedly raise the prestige of the conference by adding a traditionally successful program (as opposed to, say, Rutgers). It should also increase the recruiting base of the conference further into the heartland (read: enormous corn-fed offensive linemen). But how will this major change affect the football in Evanston?

Television Exposure: Adding a new team to the Big Ten means one more team to compete with for the prime television spots. These are typically the noon (EST) games on ESPN and ESPN2 and the 3:30 (EST) ABC game. Other games are relegated to ESPNU, or BTN. Adding Nebraska will generally hurt NU’s chances of securing one of those spots, at least as long as it continues its rise to prominence. On the other hand, in years where Nebraska is on the schedule, which depending on the divisions, could be every year, it will be a game more likely to claim one of the “big three” TV spots; at least to the extent that Nebraska replaces, say, Indiana on the schedule. Depending on the new TV contract, adding Nebraska could also secure a fourth “prime” TV spot (a noon ABC game?), which would benefit everyone from an exposure standpoint. Verdict: Slight negative

Attendance: Two things: (1) Nebraska fans travel and (2) they are some of the best football people that you will ever meet. I look forward to Nebraska fans visiting Evanston. Many fans are upset when Ryan Field is half-full of red sweatshirts. However, if these are seats that would otherwise be empty, I’d rather collect the ticket revenue. Nebraska is another team that will fill these empty seats – at least until the novelty of the Chicago trip wears off. NU fans should also look forward to their first trip to Lincoln, which is traditionally very hospitable to opposing fans. Verdict: Positive

Competition Level: Fitting in Nebraska to the Big Ten should produce the same competitive effect of adding Penn State. It is a traditional power, but not one without its shortcomings. It will have good years, and great years, and poor years. It is a program that has not withstood the effects of scholarship limits and overall parity in college football, and thus is not as consistent as it would like to be. It will generally be a big game for Northwestern because of the ‘N’ on the helmet. Some have referred to this as a “helmet game.” Meaning no matter how bad Nebraska might be in a given year, it will always be a big deal to beat them – because they are Nebraska. An example would be beating Michigan in Ann Arbor in 2008. Nebraska will always be a helmet game. Verdict: Slight Positive

Bowl Positioning: NU fans should see the addition of Nebraska as a threat. It is one more team that has the potential to jump over NU in the Bowl selection process. NU was blessed with an Outback Bowl bid in 2010, but that was only after a number of disappointments. Nebraska will add to those disappointments. Not only do Nebraska fans travel about as well as any school in the country, but Nebraska has never played in most of the Big Ten Bowl sights. Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, and the other Big Ten cities will be falling over themselves to collect some of that Cornhusker money. On the other hand, this may have some benefit. A big name like Nebraska will be attractive for a BCS at-large in a 10-2 type season. Having another team capable of securing the second BCS bid only pushes everyone else up one bowl position. Verdict: Negative

Divisional Alignment: The affect on Northwestern will depend on where the dividing line is placed. If it is a straight east-west split, this is a major benefit for Northwestern. No need to play Ohio State every year; keeping Illinois in the division; playing Wisconsin and Iowa annually, two games which have become great rivalries themselves; and having an annual game against Nebraska (see “Attendance” above). If Northwestern is sent east, it will be the complete opposite. The conference championship game gives NU a much better chance of Rose Bowl bid in any given year. Verdict: Hung

Revenge: 66-17. Fitz probably does not have a vengeful bone in his body. But if the conditions are ever right for a blowout, NU fans will be calling for blood. Verdict: Positive

Overall: The intangible effects on the conference as a whole will probably outweigh the negative effects on Northwestern specifically. NU fans should be generally excited about this addition. No one knows what the future holds for the Big Ten. But 2011 will be fun. Welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten!

A few side notes: This same general analysis would apply to Indiana, Minnesota, and probably Purdue as well. Also, despite what I suggest above I have nothing against adding Rutgers to the conference as long as it is part of a larger expansion. If the Big Ten moves to 16 teams, it needs to consider adding some “mid-level” programs such as Rutgers, UConn and Missouri. Otherwise, Northwestern will continue to get pushed down the pecking order.
Next Blog: I’ll finally get to the defense. I promise.