Northwestern Wildcat Season Preview

Now that EVR has previewed all of the positions and all of the opponents, it is time to make the prediction for the season.  It has been a roller coaster ride as each new post exposed strengths and weaknesses of NU and its opponents.  Last year EVR was fairly accurate, predicting an 8-4 season, including losing three of the last four games.  Only the Purdue loss kept that from happening.

Best Case Scenario

Persa is 100% by the Illinois game; the running game finds its stride; and the linebackers are able to use their speed for good instead of evil.  The Cats will every non-conference game and every home game.  They win at IU and split between Iowa and Illinois. But a 10-2 record falls just short of the Big Ten Title game after losing the head-to-head game against Nebraska.  This results in a return to the Outback Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario

Persa never completely regains form and Colter finds he is not ready for prime time. RBs and LBs maintain the status quo.  After a loss at Boston College, the Cats are scrambling to count wins to get bowl eligible, but sniff it out by pulling off a big win against Michigan.  6-6 is a highly disappointing year which scores the Pizza Bowl in Detroit.

Effect of Persa’s Injury

EVR is still of the opinion that the coaching staff is being intentionally coy about the Dan Persa situation.  Apparently, no one except the staff will know the answer until Saturday.  Read up on the latest and make your own judgment: Trib; Sun Times; Daily Herald.  For purposes of this prediction EVR is working under the assumption that at the very least, Persa is at full strength by the Illinois game on October 1.

Effect of Competition

If there is one thing EVR picked up doing the brief game previews, it is that the Big Ten, overall, is going to be down this year.  Only three teams should be improved – Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Illinois.  Only two may maintain the status quo – Michigan and Penn State.  Everyone else has holes to fill – major holes to fill – and will find it difficult to match their 2010 performance.  EVR believes that NU has improved slightly over 2010 on paper – and that will translate into being able to take advantage of their competition.

Game by Game

Boston College: Two weeks ago, EVR was ready to call this for the Eagles.  But the injuries and the players leaving the team has decimated this roster.  Persa and Colter split time by design, not by necessity.  There are a lot of mismatches here – resulting in a chess match between coaches.  BC keeps it close but NU wins by less than a touchdown. (1-0)

EIU: Fitz learned his lesson long ago about FCS teams.  And EIU may be the least talented team that NU has faced.  The Cats will have a chance to empty the benches in this one; winning by at least 23 points. (2-0)

Army: There will be a lot of distractions here: the pomp and circumstance of West Point, the quirky offense, and playing Army in the first game after the 9/11 anniversary. (Ironically, the Cats were supposed to play Navy in the game which was cancelled after 9/11/01).  But after a slow first half, the Cats offense imposes their will against a thin Army Defense and win by two touchdowns. (3-0)

Illinois: Despite the week off and probably having Persa at full strength, Illinois is running smooth at this point in the season.  This time it will be Scheelhaase who will pick apart the NU defense, rather than the run game.  The Cats are unable to get a running game together and the Illini win by 14. (3-1) (0-1)

Michigan: Michigan will make its first road trip of the year to play under the lights at Ryan Field.  The Cats will be ready to pounce on the still young and inexperienced defense.  Hoke will eventually have this Michigan team going in the right direction, but it does not start on this October night.  The Cats win in a surprisingly comfortable way. (4-1) (1-1)

Iowa: Sometimes you just have a team’s number.  Iowa week will focus too much on the law of averages and not enough on the actual make-up of the teams.  When it comes down to it, Iowa simply lost too much talent on defense and will be unable to contain Persa and company long enough.  In the end, Iowa is not, indeed, “due”, and despite a last minute effort, the Cats escape with a win. (5-1) (2-1)

Penn State: As much as EVR believes that the Cats are a better team on paper, the thought of sweeping Michigan-Iowa-Penn State overwhelms the team during preparation.  They come out unfocused and sloppy.  JoePa’s team is ready to play under the lights and takes it to the Cats by 14. (5-2) (2-2)

Indiana: While previous trips to Bloomington have not been pretty for the Cats, the Kevin Wilson rebuilding year is not yet ready for a win against NU.  The Hoosiers are their usual scrappy selves and will keep the game uncomfortably close – but the Cats prevail by 13. (6-2) (3-2)

Nebraska: EVR does not see this going well at all.  The Cats may stay in the game, and may even lead into the second quarter.  But like so many games against the dominant Buckeye teams of the last six years, a late second quarter score kills the Cats momentum and the second half is a complete debacle.  Nebraska wins by 24, at least. (6-3) (3-3)

Rice: NU takes out its aggression on a Rice team that is much the same as what the Cats saw last season.  The result should be much the same.  The defensive performance is solid and the Cats cruise to a 17 point win. (7-3) (3-3)

Minnesota: Much like Indiana, Jerry Kill may eventually have this team on the right track.  But with the Cats now playing to get into a New Year’s Day Bowl, they will not fall victim to the upset.  The Gophers offensive line is unable to protect their quarterback and the Cats offensive is efficient against a poorly executing defense. A two touchdown victory for the Cats. (8-3) (4-3)

Michigan State: If this game were played earlier in the season, EVR would be ready to pick the Cats.  MSU has a lot of holes to fill with a lot of youth on the offensive line and the defense. But by week 12, Dantonio will have his young guys playing like veterans and the offensive skill positions will just be too much for the Cats. (8-4) (4-4)

As for where this plays out in the Big Ten race; stay tuned tomorrow for the conference prediction.

Go Cats!

Minnesota and Michigan State Previews

It’s a two-a-day today for EVR.  Here are the previews for the final two games of the season.

Minnesota – November 19, 2011 – Ryan Field.  While Northwestern and Minnesota have had fairly divergent records over the last four years, the game has always been a hard fought battle.  From the double-overtime thriller in 2007 – to the pick-six to end the game in 2008 – to Demos winning the game in 2010.  In 2011, the cold of November will likely have set in on one of these teams, and the other will be trying to play someplace warm in the post-season.  Minnesota brings new coach Jerry Kill, who is coming off a series of successful seasons at Northern Illinois. But will he be able to make a first-year impact in a very strong Legends Division?

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At quarterback, MarQueis Gray finally gets the opportunity to be the starter after years of patiently waiting behind Adam Weber.  Gray is a multi-talented QB, who will be lost in the conversation behind Persa, Robinson, and Martinez – but is no less talented.  Gray’s problem will be a young offensive line that returns only two starters.  He may be called upon to use his mobility too much – thus risking injury and hampering the opportunity to get the ball to his number one guy, Da’Jon McKnight. 

The Gophers running game is led by one of the most experienced backs in the conference – Duane Bennett.  Bennett has 24 starts under his belt and almost 2,300 yards of total offense and 19 touchdowns under his belt.  Duane is a speedy back who can also pound for yards.  If the offensive line has come together by the NU game, he will be a force for NU’s defense to deal with, especially if the November weather is bad.

Defensively, the Gophers return eight starters including all three linebackers.  But this is a unit that will have to demonstrate great improvement from last year.  Every Minnesota opponent except for two scored more than 28 points and while the Gophers should have a fairly dynamic offense, it cannot be counted on to score four touchdowns every game.  Corners Michael Carter and Troy Stoudermire fought their way into the starting lineup last season and have earned their positions.

Michigan State – November 26, 2011 – Ryan Field.  Based on some rough research, NU has not hosted on on-campus game after Thanksgiving since a 1989.  Illinois thrashed the Wildcats that day 63-14.  In fact, NU has not won a game played on Thanksgiving or later, including Bowl games, since 1973.  Hopefully the visit by the Spartans will end this drought. Thanks to a scheduling quirk, the Cats will host Sparty for the second year in a row – after the heartbreaking loss to then-undefeated MSU in 2010.

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Michigan State brings to the table the most solid unit of offensive playmakers in the Big Ten.  Kirk Cousins is an All-Big Ten candidate and a natural leader.  Edwin Baker is a speedy back that can do it all.  Keshawn Martin and B.J. Cunningham are both seniors who have 19 career touchdowns between them.  Dion Sims is the latest in a line of solid tight ends to play for the green and white. 

If there is a weakness on the offense it is on the line, and there is cause for concern there.  Their current two deep starts two freshmen including an undersized center Travis Jackson (6’3” / 265).  Skyler Burkland, the other frosh, and sophomore Dan France will bookend the line at tackle and will be in charge of protecting Cousins in the passing game.  The only senior in the group is guard Joel Foreman.  If MSU is going to go to the heights that their fan base expects in 2010, this group will need to grow up fast.

Similarly, the defense has youth and holes to fill.  They only plan to start one senior on a defense that was dominant at times – including holding Michigan to 17 points and Illinois to 6.  Sophomore Denicos Allen steps in at middle linebacker, not completely green, as he recorded 18 tackles last season.  Fellow sophomores William Gholston (DL), Max Bullough (OLB) and Darqueze Dennard (CB) lead the youth movement on this squad.  The youth may cause some problems for the Spartans, but the dynamic offense should be able to keep games close.  And these young guys may not be experienced, but they will be aggressive playmakers who are looking to not let down their senior-laden offense.

Keep in mind that if Nebraska struggles in its new place in the Big Ten, this could be a play-in game for the Big Ten Championship game.

Go Cats!

NU Releases Depth Chart; Defensive Preview

It is game week in Evanston and on every campus around the country.  Everyone is feeling the anticipation of a new season; and EVR is ready for a busy week of posting.  So get ready to cram as there will be a lot of knowledge in the next few days.

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NU released its depth chart on Friday.  And there were a few surprises.  First, at tailback, the starters were listed as Mike Trumpy OR Jacob Schmidt.  Anyone who has been following this post knows that by mid-August, the assumption that Trumpy would simply step into the starter role was gone and that there was true competition at the position.  The other “OR” on offense is at the fourth receiver spot where Rashad Lawrence will share time with true freshman Christian Jones.  Jones was the biggest catch in the 2011 recruiting class and must have impressed the coaches to rise so fast in the depth charts.  The only other true freshman on the two-deep is Jack Konopka, who is a converted offensive lineman, who will back up Drake Dunsmore at superback.  Also of note on offense, Venric Mark is listed as the backup to Jeremy Ebert, meaning he moved up the charts pretty quickly too.

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Defensively, sophomore Tyler Scott will get the starting nod at left defensive tackle over senior Kevin Watt.  This is a move that had been discussed throughout the month.  The linebackers will be experienced as the Cats will go with Ben Johnson, David Nwabuisi, and Bryce McNaul.  Redshirt Freshman Collin Ellis was expected to get a starting nod, but is injured and will miss at least two games with his broken thumb.  Also missing because of an injury is Hunter Bates, who suffered a concussion, although he was not expected to be a true starter.  David Arnold, who has been nursing an ankle injury, is the starter at safety, but if he cannot go, Ibraheim Campbell will play in his place.  On special teams, Jeff Budzien won the place-kicking battle; although Steve Flaherty will handle kickoffs.  Campbell will be back returning kicks opposite Mark.

NU also named its 2011 Captains – and no surprises here: Dan Persa, Al Netter, Brian Peters and Jordan Mabin.  Captains are voted on by the players.

And after a quiet few weeks on the recruiting front, NU scored a pair of new Wildcats over the weekend.  First it was defensive lineman Greg Kuhar (Concord Township, Ohio), a three-star player who chose NU over BC, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State and West Virginia.  While Kuhar is not the highest rated among NU’s commitments, the caliber of program that offered him scholarships speaks for itself.  NU then went back to Ohio with Jaylen Prater, a linebacker from Wellston, Ohio.  Prater has not yet been rated by Rivals, but had competing offers from Cincinnati and Indiana.  Welcome Greg and Jaylen!

Defensive Line

The Cat defensive line was a relatively silent bunch in 2010.  Vince Browne quietly put together a very strong season, and will return as an All-America candidate.  But in both the wins and the losses, the D-Line was just a bunch of quiet workmen.  But this is a unit that continues to improve and should be able to make more noise in 2011.

The newcomer to the line is end Tyler Scott.  Tyler earned the spot in Kenosha from senior Kevin Watt, who the starter last year.  With Vince Browne seeing a great deal of double-teams, this will be a crucial position for the Cats.  Even though Scott and Watt are the exact same build, Scott (a high school linebacker) shows more strength and speed and will demonstrate a better ability to cause problems for opposing offensive lines.  He appeared in all 13 games last season as a reserve.  Watt recorded 29 tackles last season, six for losses – and had a blocked punt against Indiana.

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The middle will once again be filled by seniors Niko Mufali and Jack DiNardo.  Mufali has lost 30 pounds and is more athletic than he has been in the past.  He had a decent season after getting injured early in the Vanderbilt game.  DiNardo played very well in the first half of 2010 but will need to play at that level for the whole season.  DiNardo is one of the most explosive players on the offensive line, recording seven tackles for loss in 2010 and had two blocked kicks in the Central Michigan game.  These two will also need to stay healthy as there is little experience behind them in redshirt freshman Chance Carter and sophomore Will Hampton.

But the anchor on this unit is Vince Browne.  Vince has great speed around the corner and will be someone that the opposing defenses will have to observe at all times.  His strength has set records in the NU weight room.  Vince finds himself on a number of pre-season award watch lists, based on his 2010 statistics, which included seven sacks, 16 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles.  He will also generally take up two-blockers, which should allow the linebackers to make some plays, as well as Scott on the other side.  Vince is backed up by Quentin Williams, who also has seen the field a great deal.  Quentin recently gave up baseball to focus on football and is on the 10-man leadership counsel.  With Williams and Watt backing up the ends, it is one of the deepest positions on the team.

Linebackers

There seems to be sort of a general perception that while there are questions at running back, that they will at least be as adequate as 2010.  This leaves the linebackers as the biggest concern on the team.  While the unit is experienced, last year’s experience was horrid, especially in the last three games.  The backers were constantly over-committing and finding themselves out of position.  And then when they found themselves in the right place, they were missing tackles.  For the Cats to have any level of success in 2011, this unit needs to improve.

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Problem is, while there is experience up top, there is not a great deal of depth below.  As mentioned above the starting line of Johnson, Nwabuisi, and McNaul all felt the sting of the last three games and the media pressure that came with it.  These are three fast athletic guys, especially Nwabuisi, but they are going to need to reel it in a bit and focus on covering the run.  Johnson is one of the best athletes on the defense, but he needs to control his movement.  Cut backs were their nemesis as opposing backs would change the direction of their run and the NU backers would immediately be out of the play, which put a great deal of pressure on the secondary to act as run stoppers.  Now, there was a lot of blame to go around in those games – especially the turnovers against Wisconsin.  But these guys have a lot of personal pride on the line in 2011.

Behind them is youth and the future of the NU defense.  Collin Ellis is hurt, and was expected to steal a starting role from either Johnson or McNaul – and may still once he returns from injury.  McNaul also has a history of injuries, and so the younger guys will need to be ready.  Chi Chi Ariguzo, Damien Proby and Tim Riley are all guys who have not really seen the field for the Cats – Proby has seen the most action with 20 tackles and a sack in 2010.  But they will be called upon to play major roles both in case of injury and to provide depth.  The three starters, despite their criticism, are all pretty adept at pass coverage and blitzing – but that means that the younger backup unit will need to be ready to spell the starters at any time.

Secondary

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On the other hand, the Cats are strong and deep in the secondary and may have the best back line that they have had since the 1995 team.  The corners have impressed everyone the most and are led by Jordan Mabin and former offensive player, Jeravin Matthews.  Mabin is a true shutdown corner and was among the nation’s leaders in passes defended.  He is a three-year starter and has fantastic speed.  Matthews will see more balls his way as a result – he is a strong corner, who will use his athleticism to fight for balls with the larger receivers.  Ricky Weina will back up Mabin.  The former walk-on is now a senior and got some great experience on the 2009 squad when the defensive secondary was decimated with injuries.  Demetrius Dugar will backup Matthews.

The safety position will be manned by co-captain Brian Peters and hard-hitting David Arnold.  Arnold is listed as the starter but is nursing an ankle injury.  He is a hard hitter who can be a game-changer with his speed.  Backing up Arnold, and potentially starting against BC, is Ibraheim Campbell, who is a speedy safety who will also see time returning kicks.  His speed and hitting ability was one of the big surprises coming out of spring and fall camp.  Brian Peters is a Thorpe Award candidate and for good reason.  He has seven career interceptions, including one of the best catches of the last few years in the Outback Bowl.  He had 107 tackles last year, which is a lot for a safety, but has a great deal to do with the poor play at LB.  He stands tall at 6’4” 220, making him an imposing body for receivers over the middle.  Behind Peters is hometown hero Mike Bolden, an ETHS grad.

Special Teams

NU enters the 2011 season with one of the best special teams groups that they have had in years.  The placekicking battle was won by Jeff Budzien, over Steve Flaherty.  Flaherty instead will kickoff for the Cats, suggesting that he is the distance guy, while Budzien’s strength is accuracy.  Do not be surprised to see Flaherty walk in for a long distance kick at the end of a half or to win or tie at the last second of a game.  Apparently the composition for this job was pretty legit, so the Cats have two solid guys for at least the next two years. 

The cats Punter will again be Brandon Williams, who did an excellent job in 2010 after taking the place of Stephan Demos in this role.  The former walk-on averaged 40 yards per punt in 2010, and will continue to turn the field around for the Cats in 2011.

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The return game is as strong as it has been since 2004, when the Cats were among the nation’s leaders behind Jason Wright and Jeff Backes.  Venric Mark is a game-changer and will return both punts and kicks.  His speed and vision make him someone to watch every time he touches the ball.  Teams will try to kick away from him when they can.  Ibraheim Campbell will assist Mark on kickoffs.

EVR will post the Minnesota and MSU previews later tonight.

Speculation at QB; Questions at RB; O-Line preview; Nebraska and Rice

With only 10 days remaining until the Cats kickoff against Boston College, EVR has a lot of previewing still to go.  But first, news from camp.

Questions have arisen about Dan Persa’s health now that the media has noticed him limping on the sidelines and Kain Colter practicing with the first team offense.  Fitz added fuel to the fire by referring to Colter as “1B” in an interview.  The reality is that on the field, Persa has looked sharp – although has yet to be hit by anyone.  But the team needs to be prepared for a Boston College defense that should be a top 20 defense in the country this year – despite the recent dismissal of starting safety Okechukwu Okoroha.

Now, there are two things at play here.  First, obviously, the team needs to be prepared in the event that there is a setback in Persa’s recovery.  Colter needs to be able to step up against a big time opponent.  If the Cats can get through BC, Persa will not be as necessary in the EIU and Army games, and with the bye week after, would essentially buy another month of rehab.  But also, as the media alludes to, this is a cat and mouse game between the coaches and the media.  The fact that NU has the ability to hide their gameplan behind Persa’s injury is a major strategic advantage, and the staff and players are milking it right now.  EVR fully expects Persa to start and take most of the snaps at BC next Saturday.  Read the drama here, here, here, here, here, and here.

The running back situation has also developed into a news item out of camp, as (at least publically) Jacob Schmidt has risen to the level of starting running back.  Unfortunately, this appears to be the result of Fitz not being happy with the performance of Mike Trumpy or Adonis Smith – as opposed to the performance of Schmidt, a former walk-on.  All three continue to take snaps with the first team, in rotation.  And given the Cats’ offense, it is likely that Cat fans will see a good amount of all three regardless of who is named the starter.  In the meantime, fans are left to speculate.  It does appear that regardless of who is named the starter between Trumpy and Schmidt, that Smith may be relegated to #3 on the depth chart.  But again, this “news” may simply be the mind game being played out among Fitz, the media, and the coaching staff in Chestnut Hill.  Either way, Schmidt has a great story – check it out here and here.

The Cats closed Camp Kenosha on Saturday with its annual scrimmage and, as usual, kept 15 starters in grey shirts, off the practice field.  But the rest of the guys impressed the media who were able to see the match.  The offense was proficient and the defense put themselves in position to make plays, but dropped a few interceptions.  Venric Mark and Drew Moulton caught TD passes, and Tyris Jones ran one in. Davon Custis lead the team with 6.5 tackles and Anthony Battle recorded the games only sack.  Read Skip’s take on the scrimmage here.

Monday, the Cats took the practice field at the Great Lakes Naval base.  This is obviously a special opportunity for both the team and our troops.  Sadly, because of recruiting abuses around the country, Fitz actually needs to get a special waiver from the NCAA in order to field a practice here, as teams are only permitted one off-site practice facility.  Either way, the practice seemed to go well.  Check out the Big Ten Network’s (now, officially BTN) NU preview show tomorrow night at 8 CST.  BTN reported directly from the Great Lakes practice.  The studio crew was apparently very impressed by the NU secondary, who should be one of the strengths of the team.

The first injury report of August has been reported as David Arnold has been sitting out, although his injury, and its severity has thus far been undisclosed.  This has allowed redshirt frosh Ibraheim Campbell to get some playing time with the first team defense.  Fitz has spoken very highly of Campbell all throughout August, so this may be a great opportunity for him to step up.  Campbell will also see some time returning kicks.  EVR will keep an eye on news about Arnold’s injury.

Offensive Line

EVR admittedly does not know much about evaluating an offensive line – but for four things:  experience is important; left tackle is very important; rushing yards are good; and sacks are bad.

The NU offensive line is experienced and relatively deep.  Four starters return, all of them for their 3^rd season as a starter: All Netter, Patrick Ward, Doug Bartels, and Ben Burkett.  Burkett, despite having 39 starts at center has been moved to guard and redshirt frosh Brandon Vitabile will start the season at center.  There is depth on the interior line as Neal Deiters and Brian Mulroe have both started games at guard, along with Burkett’s ability to switch back to center.

Netter is the star of the bunch and will be primarily in charge of keeping Dan Persa upright this season.  While the “blind side” is a little less important in a shotgun offense, where the QB has a better chance of seeing the blitz, Netter will need to use his experience to protect Dan.  The Wildcat O-Line gave up way to many sacks last season, and if Dan is even the least bit immobilized by his injury, the line will need to improve significantly.

And then there is the running game.  This is a chicken-or-the-egg type question, is the running game poor because of the backs or the line.  Early last season, it was easy to blame the line as Arby Fields seemingly defaulted to bouncing it outside – leading observers to believe that there were not holes open for him.  But as Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith got more carries, they demonstrated a better propensity run inside – which suggests that the early troubles were more the result of Fields’ lack of desire to run inside.  Either way, this facet of the game will need to improve if the Cats want to be playing significant games in November.

And speaking of November…

Nebraska – November 5, 2011 – Lincoln, NE.  The Cats make their first trip to Lincoln to begin a critical stretch run.  By this time, Big Ten fans will know what they are getting out of Nebraska.  Are they a team that has benefitted over the past two years by beating a very soft Big 12 North schedule into submission?  Or are they a bona fide Big Ten title contender based on their experience in games against Oklahoma and Texas over the years.

On offense, it is all about sophomore quarterback Taylor Martinez.  Martinez was as great of a sensation as Denard Robinson during the first six weeks of last season – until both were overshadowed by the play of Cam Newton.  But Martinez will join the ever-increasing crop of dynamic Big Ten QBs (Persa, Robinson, Marquise Gray, Scheelhaase).  The face-off between he and Dan Persa will be fun to watch.   Alongside Martinez will be running back Rex Burkhead, who is smaller and less punishing than his name would suggest, this is more of a speed guy.  Martinez’ favorite target should be Brandon Kinnie, who is missing some camp with a thumb injury.

The key to the Nebraska team is the defense, however, where they have All-America Candidates at all three levels.  At defensive tackle is Jared Crick, who may be the best defensive player in the country.  At linebacker is Lavonte David, who aside from BC’s Luke Kuechly will be the best LB the Cats will see all season.  And at corner will be Afonzo Dennard, who had four interceptions last season.   This unit is all seniors and juniors and will be a tough nut to crack.  The Wildcat defense will need to play its best game in Lincoln, because points are going to be hard to come by for Persa and Co.

Rice – November 12, 2011 – Ryan Field.  While it was a non-conference game against an inferior opponent, last year’s game at Rice was probably the most complete game the Cats played on both sides of the ball (remember the Cats were dead to rights against Iowa until a 4^th quarter interception).  The offense was sharp and efficient and would have scored more but for a pair of red-zone turnovers.  And the defense played with purpose, putting up a score of their own on a Quentin Davie pick six.  As long as the Cats are healthy, we can expect more when the Owls come to Evanston.

On offense it looks like sophomore Taylor McHarque will replace Nick Fanuzzi at quarterback.  McHarque played in four games last season, and had his most impressive performance against East Carolina.  Running back will once again be Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie, who is more well-known for his youtube performances than his actual on-field production.  The offensive line does have four seniors and should provide more stability in 2011.

Defensively, the defensive line is pretty solid with returning players at each slot.  But there are holes in the linebacking corps and secondary where sophomores Cameron Nwosu (yes his last name is NW-OSU) and Paul Porras and frosh Bryce Callahan will need to grow up quick.  Rice starts the season against Texas, Purdue, and Baylor, so they will have already seen some decent offenses.  But this is team that gave up 30 points 11 times and 40 points 5 times.  So there will need to be vast improvement for this game to be competitive.

Go Cats!

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Big News out of Boston; More Camp Reports; WR preview; Penn State and Indiana

As Camp Kenosha grinds on in Wisconsin, a game-changing piece of news came out of Boston that will certainly affect the outcome of NU’s season opener.  Boston College All-ACC running back Montel Harris had a procedure performed on his left knee yesterday, which will force him to sit for the opener in Chestnut Hill.  EVR wishes Montel a speedy recovery, and hopefully he will be able to return for conference play.

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But EVR cannot ignore the effect that this will have on the NU-BC game.  Montel was the Eagles offense in 2010 and there is no reliable backup with much experience.  Sterlin Phifer is the sophomore listed on the depth chart – he has 17 career carries.  Either Phifer or classmate Chase Rettig (QB) will have to get the BC offense going or NU may roll in this game.  BC’s defense is good, but Dan Persa should eventually break through.  Look for NU to go from a touchdown underdog to a favorite by at least a field goal by game time.

Fortunately, NU is now a week and a half into summer practice and they have emerged injury free thus far.  But it is not for lack of effort.  Fitz has called Camp Kenosha “24/7 Football” given that the team is emerged into the game for one entire week.  On the other hand, Fitz has said on a number of occasions that he will toy around with the idea of eliminating two-a-days in future years (also noting that the NCAA may mandate it).  The theory being that the players arrive in camp in such great shape that the concept of the two-a-day has lost its effect.  EVR agrees with this, in theory, but notes that it will add to the temptation to require conditioning in the off-season – as opposed to it being optional.

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Speaking of getting into shape, defensive lineman Niko Mafuli arrived at camp this year at a svelte 306 lbs., 32 pounds less than his playing weight at the Ticketcity Bowl in January.  It remains to be seen whether Niko’s new physique will improve his football ability, but Fitz believes that the focus Niko put on his weight loss will translate to better focus on the field.  All EVR can recall about Niko’s season is that he was injured in the Vanderbilt game.  So that is not saying much.  Hopefully Niko can add much-needed depth to the D-Line in 2011.

EVR generally does not cite to the other NU blogs, but Sippin On Purple did a wonderful interview this week with walk-on running back Tyris Jones.  Definitely worth the read.  Awesome to hear the back story of one of the guys who may never see the field.

Skip Myslenski is, as always, doing a wonderful job of blogging and reporting for Camp Kenosha.  Here’s a quick run-down of this week.  Monday involved some situational practices, including goal line offense and running drills offensive plays out of their own end zone.  Both of these situations have required work in recent years.  Also, apparently, Fitz lined up at Center for a few drills.  Skip wrote separately Monday about the “no-name” linebacking corps, as Fitz named them on Big Ten Media Day.  It is basically open competition for these positions – although favorite have emerged for the starting roles.  But the LBs with the most experience will have to improve significantly from last year’s performance.  The LBs were constantly over-committing and finding themselves out of position.  This put an enormous amount of pressure on the defensive backs, and eventually lead to the debacle at Wrigley.  There will be more on the LB position in the coming weeks.

Tuesday’s story did not address much, but it does contain an embedded video of a handful of freshman discussing their first trip to Kenosha.  Wednesday, Skip wrote about the proficiency of the passing game, especially the precision of Dan Persa, and the physicality of the defensive line.  Overall, it appears that Camp Kenosha is moving along without a hitch and that the team is getting read for BC in just over two weeks!

One observation before EVR moves to the WR preview.  The Cats are now two weeks into camp and not a single beat writer has said a word about the running backs.  Lots of reports about how good Persa is looking and the athletic ability of the Cats receiving corps.  Stories about the physicality of the defensive line, the competition among the linebackers, and the leadership of the secondary.  But conspicuously absent is anything about the RBs.  Given how important an improved running game will be to the Cats success this season, the lack of news out of Kenosha is a cause for concern.

Wide Receiver Preview

The success of the Northwestern quarterbacks in the spread offense has been due in large part to the quality of receiver that NU has brought into the system.  For the last 12 years, the Cats have consistently fielded an arsenal of wideouts, all with smart route-running skills and soft hands to make the tough catch.  This season might be the best receiving corps that the Wildcats have ever had, which, along with a healthy Dan Persa, is a scary proposition for opposing defenses.

Leading the pack is All Big-Ten wideout Jeremy Ebert.    He also brought in ten touchdowns.  Ebert is only 6’0”, which is a touch short compared to his teammates, but his 195 frame makes him a relatively huge target.  He also has deceptive speed.  Like many great NU receivers in the past, Ebert was a high school QB, which is demonstrated by his on-the-field smarts.

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Starting with Ebert will be Demetrius Fields, Charles Brown, and Rashad Lawrence.  Fields is the prototype possession receiver with 24 and 25 catches in each of the last two seasons – none more than 26 yards.  He make Ebert look tiny at a stout 6’0” / 210.  He is a great route runner.  Brown finally began to come on at the end of his junior season, finishing with 16 catches for the season.  Brown has one of the most impressive springs of any NU offensive player – and has worked himself into a starting roll.  Lawrence impressed many as a true freshman in 2010 and is probably the Cats best deep threat, with receptions of 44 and 50 yards last year.  He is the tallest of the starters at 6’2” and he is expected to play a much larger role in 2011.

Cat fans saw the potential for greatness out of Venric Mark and Tony Jones last season, who will be returning as true sophomores and will certainly see part of the action.  Mark is too fast to be kept off  the field and Jones is another potential big-play threat along with Lawrence.  Look for these two, along with speedster Drew Moulton to figure into the equation as the first set of backups.  Another Soph., Mike Jenson, had an impressive spring and is currently listed on the two-deep depth chart as well.

Finally, the Cats are already prepared to re-load with freshmen Cameron Dickerson, Christian Jones, and Pierre Youngblood-Ary – all of whom tower at 6’3” and could be a dominant three-some in years to come.  Given the depth on the field already, its likely that only one of these guys will see action in 2011.  Pierre has looked the most impressive thus far.

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Penn State – October 22, 2011 – Ryan Field.  NU has had two consecutive heartbreaking disappointments against Penn State in the last two years.  In both games, the Cats were in position to win in the second half, but Penn State simply rolled.  NU players have a bad taste in their mouths about this game – especially Dan Persa, who will get his last chance at his hometown favorite.

On offense Penn State has yet to decide on a quarterback.  While Matt McGloin led the Lions to nice victories against NU and Michigan, he lacks the excitement of Rob Bolden, who is more likely to be the starter.  Silas Redd is the leading returning rusher and will be called upon as the workforce as Stephfon Green continues to get pushed down the depth chart after a breakthrough 2008.  The O-Line starts three seniors, so sophomore John Urschel will have to pull his weight to avoid being classified as the weak link.

On defense the Lions bring back a very veteran group of seven seniors and four juniors – and may be the most experienced defense in the league.  Problem being that the defense gave up 30 points of more in four of the last eight games – and almost allowed Dan Persa to run them out of the building.  Senior linebacker Nate Stupar will need to lead this defense to a more solid position if this team wants to compete in a tough Leaders division.

Indiana – October 29, 2011 – Bloomington, IN.  Bloomington has given the Cats fits over the last decade.   The Cats have only won two of the last five there, and the two wins were by three points and in overtime respectively.  Bloomington is lead into 2011 with a familiar face, Kevin Wilson, who along with Randy Walker was the architect of the Wildcat spread offense.  He has since coached from the booth in a national championship game and groomed a Heisman trophy winner.  So, yeah, he knows what he is doing.

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Problem is, it may take a while.  Needing to find a new starting QB, Dusty Kiel (brother of IU’s stunning QB commitment Gunner Kiel) will have to compete for the job.  The running back corps are extremely young, with redshirt sophomore D’Angelo Roberts expected to be the starter.  The Hoosiers do return WR Demarlo Belcher and TE Max Dedmond, who will need to be big playmakers on this young offense.  The O-Line is a relatively veteran group who will need to keep the QB upright for this offense to function.

Defensively, the Hoosiers have a decent amount of experience and talent, but there are some holes.  There are looking to start a freshman at linebacker with Chase Hoobler and sophomore Lawrence Barnett at CB.  This is a defense that had some pretty solid games against NU and Iowa – but also gave up 40 points four times – including an embarrassing 83 to Wisconsin.  Strong offensive should be able to score a lot of points on these guys if they don’t shape up.

Go Cats!

Confidence in Kenosha; Superbacks; Michigan and Iowa Preview

The first week of Northwestern football practice is in the books with no major news out of Evanston.  The team arrived in Kenosha Saturday night ready for their annual week of training camp.  Reviewing the papers from the past week, there is one common thread – this is a confident Wildcat team.  This week in Kenosha will go a long way to determining how that confidence will translate to on the field performance.  EVR will also preview the Superback position and the Michigan and Iowa games.

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Everyone wants to know how Dan Persa did in his first week of practice, including Tina, Teddy, and Lindsey, who all wrote feature stories on Persa this week.  Dan was happy to be out with his Wildcat teammates, but admitted that it felt “weird” – it was after all his first football activity in nine months.  Reports are that Dan was able to handle dropping back and passing fairly well, while throwing the ball very accurately.  But he was hesitant and somewhat less confident with running and cutting.  Of course many wonder whether this will lead to a change in the game plan.  Depends on who you ask.  Fitz maintains that the Cats will do what they need to do to win.  While OC Mick McCall suggested that Dan would pass from the pocket more in 2011 even if he had not been injured.  Whether it is by design or by necessity, EVR expects the Cats to try to use the RBs to control the running game – at least to start the season – and only utilize Persa as a runner if it is not working.

One Wildcat has made clear that he expects to be on the field this year, and that is back-up QB Kain Colter.  In fact, in a Tribune interview, Kain suggested that he would be pressing Dan Persa for his job.  While it is hard to read this without snickering, you have to like the confidence that Kain Colter emits.  Fitz hits the nail on the head when he says that he would prefer that Kain act prepare as though he is going to be the starter – as opposed to simply waiting on the sideline for his turn.  Hopefully, Cat fans will not need to worry about a Dan Persa injury.  But if necessary, the Cats will need to see a better performance than the end of last season.  Either way, Fitz suggests that we will see Kain on the field in 2011.  As he showed last season, he is a heck of an athlete and needs to have the ball in his hands.

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While the QB news makes the sports page news, the most significant story coming out of Evanston week was the news of moving Ben Burkett to right guard.  Burkett has started every game over the last three years at center.  Right guard is also the only spot on the offensive line where the Cats do not return a starter.  The O-Line was a spotty group in 2010; giving up too many sacks and producing too few rushing yards.  So adjustment is welcome.  The move appears to be designed to give redshirt freshman Brandon Vitabile an opportunity to start at center.  Brandon was one of NU’s highest rated recruits of the 2010 class.  For more on this decision, check out Skip’s Saturday blog posting.  This is a development that EVR will follow closely over the next three weeks.

On NU defender who has finally found confidence on the field is starting cornerback Jeravin Matthews.  Matthews, a senior, has seen time at running back, wide receiver, kick returner, and generally on special teams. He tells Tina Akouris that this is the first time he has reported to Kenosha at the same position as the year before.  Jeravin recorded 15 tackles as a backup last season and has impressed the coaching staff enough to be given the starting job out of spring football.  The front seven of the NU defense will need to spend the first few weeks finding its identity – and that will place a lot of pressure on the secondary.  The emergence of Venric Mark as a return man will allow Jeravin to focus on his defensive tasks for 2011.

This post is all about developing player confidence into performance.  And this team is brimming with confidence – as can be seen by Skip Myslenski’s blog post.  Fitz suggests that this is rooted in the failures of this senior class in the previous years:

·         But we were not very pleased with the way we finished a year ago. We've moved on from it, but still. It's like when you get your tail whipped; you remember who whipped your tail. Those memories, they stick with you as motivation if you use them the right way and that's kind of the way we've approached this off-season.

Senior Superback Drake Dunsmore created a little bulletin board material earlier in the week by stating:

·         I honestly think this is the year that we win the Big Ten championship and we get a major bowl game."

Senior Wideout Jeremy Ebert added his sentiment:

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I haven't been around a team like this. The confidence we have going into the season is unlike any other since I've been here. Yeah. We're ready to play some football. . . I think we just know we can get the job done this year. . . We have a little fire in our stomachs from how we left off last season and where we thought it was going to go. So we have a lot of unfinished business this year. . . We have something to prove this year.

Senior QB Dan Persa followed suit:

·         Yeah. I think it's just confidence. I think we got a lot of confidence last year working through the things we worked through and we know we can play with anybody. That's the biggest thing.  I think it's been like that since the senior class has been here.  It's always struck some of the guys that we weren't getting respected as much as we thought we should be.

And Senior tackle Al Netter summed the whole thing up:

·         I think that we've been through so much here at Northwestern and now we feel we're on the verge of being something special.  We all feel this is the special year. We have a lot of leadership. We have a lot of guys with playing experience. So I think there is a special buzz and we all feel it

College football is defined by leadership, confidence, and emotion.  These guys are speaking unlike any Northwestern senior class before.  They will be the ones responsible for translating their swagger to on the field performance.

Also of note, apparently the team is having a mustache growing contest.

Superback Preview

As anyone who is reading this blog knows, the NU superback position is a hybrid position that is part fullback and part tight end – and at times part slot receiver as well.  Based on a little bit of research, it appears that NU is the only team that uses the Superback title for this role.  This basically means that Drake Dunsmore is the best Superback in the country.

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Dunsmore will continue to be one of the most important cogs in the Northwestern offense.  And more importantly, he arrives in August completely healthy for the first time in his tenure at NU.  Speaking of confidence, Dunsmore says in an interview with Skip, that the Wildcat seniors talk about winning the Big Ten Championship “all the time.”  Dunsmore is on the John Mackey Award watch list and for good reason.  He has 98 career catches for more than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.  Drake has a lot of strength (for those of you who remember this) and has great hands.  His frame makes him difficult to cover, but is large enough to take on a linebacker in a blocking assignment.  This makes him perfect for the Superback role.  But his health is important as the depth at this position is not great – primarily because of a lack of experience.

The depth chart lists Sophomore John Plasencia as the backup to Dunsmore.  John is taller and heavier than Drake, so one has to wonder whether he will have the same ability to excel in the passing game – although he did catch 40 passes in his final two years in high school.  His size, however, is perfect for a blocking end or fullback.  He appeared in four games last year but did not record any stats.

The superback position is rounded out by Junior Brett Nagle and redshirt freshman Mark Szott.  Nagle has appeared in two games in two years.  He has one career reception, against Rice last season.  Szott is likely to redshirt, although Fitz has spoken highly of his route running during interviews.

Michigan – October 8, 2011 – Ryan Field.  Michigan makes its first trip to Evanston since 2007, a heartbreaker for Northwestern, who lost a fourth quarter lead in that game.  Since then the two programs have been on opposite ends of the spectrum.  NU has had, maybe, the best three year stretch in program history.  Michigan, probably its worst.  By the time they get to Evanston, Michigan will have had a good chance to kick the tires on its new system under coach Hoke.  This will be Michigan’s first road game after five weeks at home – with Notre Dame its only truly challenging opponent.

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Michigan’s offense begins and ends, of course, with Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson.  NU will get a decent warm-up the week before with Nathan Scheelhaase, but even the Illini QB cannot match the speed and field awareness of Robinson on the run.  This will be the biggest test of the NU run defense, as they will be best served forcing Robinson to throw.   The rest of Michigan’s offense is very experienced, as they bring seven more seniors and only one sophomore to the party.  Michael Shaw is their leading rusher from the running back position, but he only had 75 carries so it remains to be seen whether he can carry the load that Michigan will ask of him.  Roy Roundtree returns as Robinson’s favorite target.  The O-Line has three seniors.  But the key to the offense may be sophomore (albeit returning starter) LT Taylor Lewan protecting Robinson’s blind side.

But everyone knows that Michigan cannot win football games without a significant increase in their defensive production.  Last season, Big Blue gave up 34 points or more nine times.  Nine!  Michigan looks to employ a 3-4 defense in 2011 and brings three seniors to the front.  But the secondary is what will need to improve the most.  This unit was consistently out of position in 2010 and gave up big play after big play.  Unfortunately, they expect to start two sophomores at safety, where they are already thin.  Moving linebacker Thomas Gordan to safety is an effort to provide depth to this unit.

The battle for the middle of the Legends Division will be fierce, and the winner of this game will go a long way towards ending up on the higher end, and actually competing for the division.

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Iowa – October 15, 2011 – Iowa City, IA.  No team in the Legends Division is replacing more important players than Iowa.  Compare this to the fact that NU is returning more players than anyone else in the Division – and NU’s recent success against the Hawkeyes.  But the night game in Iowa City will be intimidating and the Cats will be playing a battle-tested team in Iowa, having already faced Iowa State, Pitt and Penn State.

Offensively, it will finally be James’ Vandenberg’s turn to control the offense.  Vandenberg is no stranger to the Cats as he was forced into action against NU in 2009.  He does have the advantage of starting a handful of games, which will be a major plus (think about how Kafka and Persa benefitted from the same).  Sophomore Marcus Coker will be the starter in a depleted running back corps.  He had over 600 yards rushing in 2010 and averaged a strong 5.5 yards per carry.  If he can avoid the Iowa jinx of the last few years, he has the opportunity to be a workhorse for the Hawks.  Marvin McNutt returns as one of the best receivers in the Big Ten.  If the relatively young offensive line and keep Vandenberg protected, McNutt will be a major threat, again.

On defense the Hawkeyes are a mix of experience and youth.  While there are a lot of solid seniors, they expect to start three sophomores, including two at the linebacker level.  Senior Tyler Neilsen will need to lead these two if the unit wants to develop into a traditional Iowa defense.  The Senior-laden defensive line will need to be in better condition this season, as it faltered down the stretch in a few games in 2010 – especially against NU.

Go Cats!