Game Preview: Northwestern 2-1 (0-0) at Illinois 4-0 (0-0)

Saturday, October 1, 2011, 11:00 CST (ESPN2)

Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois

The Land of Lincoln Trophy
hailtopurple.com

Northwestern looks to bounce back from a stinging defeat after a bye week which saw some key players return to the field at full strength.  Illinois looks to continue its best start since 1961 – before Dick Butkus was on campus.  This rivalry game has taken on a new flavor this season as both players and coaches have spoken openly about competing to be Chicago’s Big Ten Team.  It is the 105^th meeting between the schools.  Northwestern is 10-6 against Illinois in the Expect Victory Era.  Illinois won the most recent meeting in 2010 in the Wrigley Field game.  Northwestern won the last game in Champaign.

Illinois and Northwestern both bring strong running games to the field on Saturday as both are averaging more than 200 yards rushing per game and are in the top 25 nationally in that category.  Illinois has a softer secondary but a fierce pass rush – which will create an interesting matchup for senior quarterback Dan Persa, who returns to the field for the first time in 2011.  Northwestern also returns three key defenders, but will it be enough to stop the dynamic Illinois offense?

Injury Report

Northwestern’s injury report is as positive as it has been all year.  DT Brian Arnfelt (Foot), S Jared Carpenter (Wrist), and WR Tony Jones (Leg) are all out – but none of them are starters.  On the other hand, Dan Persa, Adonis Smith, Jack DiNardo, Colin Ellis, and David Arnold will all play for NU after missing at least one game each.  This is as healthy as the Cats are going to get.

On the Illini side, their injury report is pretty clean as well.  Reserve fullback Zach Becker broke his leg against South Dakota State and will miss the season.  Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase banged up his shoulder against Arizona State but that did not limit him at all last week.  The only major loss for Illinois is starting left tackle Corey Lewis, who blew his ACL in February and is missing the entire season.  Otherwise, both of these teams will be pretty much at full strength – which is how fans should want to see the game played.

Weather Report: Tomorrow will be a cool day, perfect for October football.  Champaign is expected to have a kickoff temperature of 54 with a high of 59.  There is a slight chance of rain at 10%, but otherwise mostly sunny.  Weather will not be an issue in this game.  Check with the Weather Channel for updates on the weather.

Inside the Matchups

Dan Persa
espn.com

It is no secret that the key to the Wildcat offense will be the return of Dan Persa.  After the blowout in Wrigley Field, Cat fans were quick to point out that Persa was unable to control the ball for NU; while Illinois fans were quicker to point out that not even Dan Persa could have tackled Mikel Leshoure.  There is no question that the NU offense will be a more efficient attack with Persa at the helm.  But that is not to say that the offense did not stall under him at times in 2010.  The team will have to quickly adjust to having its #1 guy behind center if they want to stay in this game.

If he is given time to throw, Dan should have the chance to move the ball through the air.  Last year, of course, he set a Big Ten record and was the nation’s leader in completion percentage.  Illinois defensive backs are inexperienced and are having some growing pains.  Only cornerback Tavon Wilson had any significant starting experience before 2011.  This defense has given up 231 yards passing per game and more than 250 yards in three of its four games.  Illinois does have six interceptions on the year, but only two by defensive backs.

Michael Buchanan
cstv.com

But Illinois’ strength on defense is the pass rush.  They have 14 sacks in only four games including four by junior DE Whitney Mercilus and 3.5 by junior “bandit” Michael Buchanan.  They will put a lot of pressure on Patrick Ward and Al Netter.  NU has given up six sacks, but gave up three to Army.  Giving Persa time to throw will be integral to the Cats ability to move the ball.

When Dan does throw, he will have his All-Conference WR Jeremy Ebert raring to go.  Ebert scored his first two touchdowns of the year last week and continues to pose a threat with his precision routes.  It is likely that he will see coverage by Wilson, who actually has a slight size advantage over Ebert.  But look to see Persa go to Ebert if he is found matched up against Terry Hawthorne or Justin Green.  Rashad Lawrence and Christian Jones may see some more touches this week as well.  Illinois DB’s are unusually large and NU needs to take advantage of the size advantage that these two present.  Of course Drake Dunsmore will be the primary Safety valve.  And Persa will look to see him lined up against sophomore linebacker Jonathan Brown for the mismatch.

Mike Trumpy
bleacherreport.com

NU’s running game is both improved and healthy for the Illinois game.  This squad has averaged over 200 yards per game led by Mike Trumpy and quarterback Kain Colter.  Saturday will also see the return of Adonis Smith, who will add a dimension to the attack.  Colter will probably still see the ball in some capacity, even if not by direct snap.  But Illinois’ run defense is one of the best in the nation, giving up only 56 yards per game.  It is led by senior linebackers Ian Thomas and Trulon Henry.  NU will need at least 100 yards on the game to keep this competitive because, while they should be able to move the ball through the air, the Cats will need to mix it up a bit – not only to keep the defense honest but to tame the Illini pass rush and keep Persa upright.

When Illinois has the ball they bring with them the 16^th most efficient passer in the nation with Scheelhaase.  He not only averages 212 yards per air through the air, but has also gained 224 yards on the ground through four games.  This is the first true dual-threat quarterback that the Cats will see this year – and they will need to get used to it with Denard Robinson and Taylor Martinez on the schedule. NU’s ability to contain Scheelhaase will be telling as to how they will perform during the season.  NU’s pass defense has shown some inconsistency, giving up 351 yards against BC and two big pass plays against EIU – but then only 6 yards passing against Army. 

Leshoure finds another hole
redeyechicago.com

But honestly, the reason for only six yards against Army was the run defense, which Illinois knows a lot about.  But there are some differences between the NU run defense in Wrigley and the one at West Point.  At Wrigley, NU was over pursuing and out of position.  This lead to a lot of missed tackles and put a great deal of pressure on the secondary to help stop the run.  But in West Point, NU was actually pretty disciplined with positioning, they were just caught up in the Army cut block scheme and gave up too many yards after the first hit.  If NU can complete tackles, they really should see some more success against the more traditional running attack of Illinois.  The debut of highly-touted freshman linebacker Colin Ellis and the return of run-stopping safety David Arnold are expected to be a major help in this department.

Jason Ford
heraldreview.com

Illinois will look to give the ball not only to feature back Jason Ford, but also senior Troy Pollard and freshman Donovonn Young.  The Illini have shown the propensity to give the ball to the hot hand all year and should continue to do such.  If there is a weakness to the Illini running attack it is on the left side, where freshman tackle Michael Heitz replaces injury starter Corey Lewis.  Inside of Heitz is senior Jack Cornell, who started at the end of last season, but is not nearly as experienced as the other side of the offensive line.

Heitz and Cornell will be charged with stopping Jack DiNardo and Vince Browne, which could be one of the key matchups for the Cats on defense.  If Jack and Vince can contain their blocks in the run game, they will win this matchup, because they should be able to create some pressure in the passing game.  Illinois has given up 10 sacks itself (NU has forced six in one fewer game), so it is not immune to the sack, despite its mobile quarterback.  Expect Illinois to run a lot until NU can stop them, but if and when they do pass, the NU pass rush could be a key factor.

A.J. Jenkins
fansonly.com

Senior A.J. Jenkins is Scheelhaase’s favorite target and already has pulled in 28 catches.  Jenkins is a smaller speedy receiver who can get lost in the NU zone if the Cats are not careful.  Look for Jordan Mabin to attempt to shut him down.  Meanwhile, Jeravin Matthews will draw the assignment on sophomore wideout Darius Millines, who is also a smaller player, and should not give Jeravin the problems he has had with the larger receivers.  Illinois will look to use tight end Evan Wilson near the goal line.  Wilson only has four catches, but two of them are for touchdowns.

Final Analysis

By all accounts, Illinois should win this game.  But NU has the x-factor of having five players return from injury – all of whom should contribute at varying levels.  The Illini have a very favorable schedule, and do not want to blow an opportunity to have a special season by losing to their rivals. Illinois was already given a scare last week, so it should come out focused for its homecoming crown.

Fitz will be looking for answers
espn.com

NU is going to need to get its head on straight on special teams as well, which is an area that has struggled a bit this season.  NU has the ability to win this game, but it will have to avoid the penalties and mental mistakes that have plagued the team in the first three games.

Expect this to be a hard-fought game, one of the better matchups this rivalry has seen in a while.  Persa will have a solid, if not spectacular game, but may not have the stamina to keep it together for 60 minutes.  In the end, the Illinois run game will overpower the NU defense and it will control the fourth quarter.  NU will get a final shot at it, but may fall just short.  Hopefully, this is wrong, but EVR is calling it at 31-24 Illini.

Go Cats!

Positive Injury Report; the Battle for Chicago; and Big Ten Power Rankings

The Northwestern Wildcats made good use of their bye week by getting themselves well.  Four Wildcat players find themselves back on the two-deep depth chart for Illinois, and a fifth may play Saturday as well.  The Cats will have their work cut out for them in another road test, so this could not have come at a better time.

Chicagonow.com

The biggest news is, of course, Dan Persa.  Persa should be the difference maker who will electrify an offense that was stagnant at best against Army.  The only concerns with Dan will be adjusting to the speed of play and keeping him from being too excited about the game.  Fitz will not commit that Dan will take all of the snaps, but the presumption is that if he feels well enough, he will.  But expect Colter to see the ball in some way, as his speed is too good to not utilize.

One of the more exciting returns is not a return at all but the Wildcat debut of redshirt freshman linebacker Collin Ellis.  Ellis has been highly touted by the coaching staff and should make an impact on the defense.  He will begin by backing up Ben Johnson, but the coaches expect Ellis to get into the game.  Anticipate seeing Ellis as the starter by homecoming.

Jack DiNardo will be back in his starting role on the defensive line.  After a strong effort against Boston College, Jack sat out the last two games.  Against the dynamic offense of the Illini, DiNardo’s stability in the middle will be necessary.

David Arnold will return but will not regain his starting spot as Ibraheim Campbell appears to won the job outright.  But Arnold will certainly see playing time, especially in running situations.  Arnold is a big hitter and will be needed to stop the Illini backs from breaking the big one.

Bostonherald.com

Finally, there is no official word yet on Adonis Smith.  He is not listed on the two-deep, but he may simply be the third guy behind Trumpy and Schmidt.  Smith is still the best back at grinding out the extra yard in a pack and would have been helpful in the failed third-and-short situations against Army.

Both the coaches and the players have ratcheted up the Northwestern-Illinois rivalry a bit this week.  It seems as though the Illini have taken offense to the Wildcats claim of being “Chicago’s Big Ten Team.”  It also seems that the Wildcats are pretty serious about that claim.  The Chicago media has had a field day with this war of words and this is perhaps exactly what this rivalry needs.  Many of the games over the last 10 years have been blowouts, and the closer games generally were comebacks that fell short – rather than outright barnburners.  Perhaps the early season matchup is the key – the last three NU-Illinois games played in October have all been decided by three points.

Most fans look at a team like Northwestern, look at the offense’s performance against Army, and they immediately blame the playcalling.  The presumption is that Northwestern is a bigger, faster, and stronger team, and that they should have no problems moving the ball against Army.  But the average fan does not know a thing about playcalling, it is just the scapegoat. 

Now, EVR does not pretend to know anything about offensive playcalling either, but after reviewing the play chart for the Army game, a few interesting things popped out.

OC Mick McCall
cstv.com

NU ran 23 plays on first down against Army.  They called 8 runs and 15 passes, although two of the runs were Colter runs, which may have been initially called as passes.  There is no way of knowing without re-watching the entire game, but assume for sake of argument that they were designed runs.  In the first half, the Cats passed on first down and ran on the following second down five times – and converted (eventually) the first down each time.  The Cats also threw a first down pass complete for a first down.  This means that six of the ten first half first downs were the result of passing on first down, and primarily the result of running on the following second down.

The statistics very clearly support this.  For the game, NU was 9-14 with one sack passing the ball on first down, for an average of 7.8 yards per play call.  This leaves the cats with a second and short (less than 3) – where the Cats averaged 3.7 yards per carry.  Even when the pass was incomplete, the Cats averaged 14 yards per carry on 2^nd and long (7-10 yards).  On the other hand, passing in those situations netted a combined 2-6 with a sack.  Clearly, the pass on first / run on second plan was having success.

But in the second half, the Cats passed on first down and ran on the following second down only once.  It was not successful primarily because of a third down penalty.  This playcalling progression was the bread and butter of the team in the first half, and was completely abandoned in the second half.  Perhaps it was panic.  But there were no situations, except for the final drive, where the score and time situation was any different than the first half.  The Cats spend most of the game down by 7 points; the game plan should have been consistent throughout.

Now whether or not the pass-run combo will work against Illinois, no one knows.  But hopefully the coaching staff will look to their own charts and see what is working for them rather than continuing to try to reinvent the wheel.

Legends Division

1 Nebraska: Nebraska escaped its trap game on Saturday with a solid victory in Laramie against Wyoming.  After two sluggish performances, the Huskers showed a more dominant face, which they will need moving forward to the Big Ten season.  While Nebraska and Wisconsin may not be the sexiest matchup of the weekend, it is certainly the most important – and may not be the only matchup of the year.

2 Michigan State: Michigan State got back in the saddle on Saturday with a commanding 47-7 win over Central Michigan.  The young defense will have an interesting matchup against the youngest quarterback in the conference when they face the Buckeyes on Saturday.  Given that this is a down year for OSU, this is Sparty’s chance to prove that he belongs in the upper tier of the conference.

3 Michigan: There was no intent to move Michigan up to 3 until after they played Northwestern on the field, but the defensive performance against San Diego State could not be ignored.  Yes, the Big Ten opponents will provide more competition on both sides of the ball; and Denard Robinson will need to get better at passing the ball (two more picks against SDSU).  But Blue has passed the first tests of the year and earned this spot.

4 Northwestern (-1): A statistic posted on Twitter over the weekend which said that NU’s winning percentage is a full .200 higher in years when they are “upset” during the season than years when they are not – since 1995.  While this is certainly testament to the annual Wildcat upset, it is also demonstrative of NU’s resolve.  The Cats get an army (sorry) of players back for the Illinois game and had two weeks to prepare; so they may be primed for an upset.

5 Iowa: Iowa was impressive against a relatively unimpressive team.  But this is a team that will still have problems.  After a bye week the Hawkeyes have Penn State and Northwestern, so if they want to prove that they belong in the top half of the league, they will have their chance.

6 Minnesota: After an embarrassing loss to North Dakota State, the Gophers are staring down the potential for a 1-11 season – and they do not play Indiana and have Purdue on the road.  With a coach that is going through some health problems right now, this could be a dark time for the Minnesota program.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: Madison hosts Gameday on Saturday as the Badgers welcome Nebraska to the Big Ten.  Wisconsin is more talented on both sides of the ball and their dynamic offense should be able to put up some points against a Nebraska defense that has been weaker than expected.  The Badgers have yet to show their weakness, if they have one.  Stopping Taylor Martinez might just be the test to see if Bucky belongs in the national title discussion.

2 Illinois: The Illini narrowly avoided a choke with a 23-20 victory over Western Michigan.  The secondary was thrashed for over 300 yards passing, which will perk the ears of offensive coordinators across the conference.  Illinois is the deserved favorites this weekend, but if Dan Persa can get things going through the air, it could be a dogfight to determine Chicago’s Big Ten Team.

3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes won handily against Colorado last weekend and are now bracing for a near impossible stretch against the conference’s best four teams.  MSU is their only opponent of the bunch where they will be without the Tattoo Four.  If they can sneak out a win Saturday, OSU will be back in the discussion.

4 Penn State: Penn State for the first time all season looked like a Penn State team as they rolled over an Eastern Illinois team who was simply overmatched.  Penn State still insists on alternating quarterbacks, which will eventually be their undoing.  The Lions have a chance to get hot with games against Indiana, Iowa and Purdue upcoming.

5 Purdue: The Boilers had the week off and now host Notre Dame on Saturday.  If Purdue can force turnovers, they have a chance.  But Notre Dame is a supremely more talented team, and this could finally be the blowout that Irish fans are thirsting for.  Either way, Purdue seems like it may rise above Indiana and Minnesota at the bottom of the Big Ten.

6 Indiana (-1): Like Minnesota, the Hoosiers are facing a 1-11 season now that they have lost to both Ball State and North Texas.  North Texas was actually up 24-0 in the fourth quarter before a fierce IU comeback fell short.  Bottom line, this is a bad team.

Go Cats!

Revisiting Army; the Anatomy of an Upset

First off, EVR apologizes for going AWOL this week.  The post-Army hangover was too great on Sunday morning and EVR’s “real job” has been getting in the way.  Even EVR needs a bye week.

NU lost to Army.  There is not much more to say about it.  Those who watched know how it happened; those who did not watch – well those fans are probably better off.  There are three things that can be said about losing to Army.  The first is that Northwestern should not lose to Army.  Period.  End of discussion.

But it is also very little to get upset about losing to Army or any service academy.  The service academies represent everything that is good and pure about college football.  And if the Cats are going to lose to any team, Army is one of the few that are tolerable. 

Finally, the one thing that gives Cat fans solace about losing to Army is the very thing that frustrates them the most.  And that is this: this was an upset; NU is better than Army; NU will make a bowl; NU will beat someone that it should not to make up for it.  Why do Cat fans feel that way?  Well, that is the frustrating part… because NU has seen this all too often…

’06 New Hampshire; ’07 Duke; ’08 Indiana; ’09 Syracuse; ’10 Purdue; ’11 Army.  Every year of the Fitz tenure, NU has suffered a devastating upset.  Cat fans have grown to expect it; and those with negative inclinations even picked Army as the trap game of the 2011 season.  In attempting to process the Army loss, EVR has done some research.  And while this will not necessarily demonstrate why NU has a tendency to lose these games; the goal is to show how it happens.

The easy way to describe this trend is that NU comes into these upset games overconfident.  And there is some merit to this.  NU is an incredible 18-1 going into the 6 Fitz upsets.  There is some indication of looking ahead as well.  NU’s opponents after the upsets included Ohio State (’07), a red hot Minnesota (’08), a decent Minnesota (’09), an undefeated Michigan State (’10), and a likely undefeated Illinois this year.

But there is far more similarity to those losses than meets the eye.  Look at the Duke, Indiana, Purdue and Army losses.  The New Hampshire game is Fitz’s second career game and had a freshman at quarterback – not to mention that New Hampshire was probably actually better than NU that year.  The Syracuse game showed us one of the best passing performances in NU history – but for the brutal Kafka interception that set up the game winning field goal.  NU also had a secondary that was decimated by injuries, so it is a bit of an outlier.

Here is a look at the four remaining upset games, as compared the NU’s season stats.  Note that the season stats are the game-by-game average with the upset game removed:

		NU Pts.	NU Pts.		Opp Pts.	Opp. Pts.		NU off yds.	NU off yds.		Opp. Off yds.	Opp. Off yds
Year	Game	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff	Game	Season Avg.	Diff
2007	Duke	14	25	(11)	20	28	(8)	506	386	120	309	370	(61)
2008	Indiana	19	25	(6)	21	20	1	316	362	(46)	319	342	(23)
2010	Purdue	17	27	(10)	20	30	(10)	389	391	(2)	279	438	(159)
2011	Army	14	33	(19)	21	19	2	309	430	(121)	387	398	(11)

This explains a great deal.  NU consistently scored considerably below its season average in its upset losses.  Meanwhile its offensive yardage output was not too far off.  Thus suggests that the team is moving the ball at its normal rate, but not converting the scores.  It is clear that offensive efficiency is a clear indicator that an upset is in the cards.

Meanwhile, in the four subject games, the defense plays to its average, if not significantly better than normal.  In the Purdue game last year, the defense played one of its best statistical games of the season, but it was not enough.

Another common theme is the setting of the game.  Each of these losses – and you can throw back in the Syracuse game for this one – was either on the road or at night.  In other words, it was a setting that is out of the Wildcat comfort zone.

So how does this happen?  Stop if you have heard this one before.  NU comes out and the offense sputters.  Underdog gets an early score.  Underdog’s defense makes a few nice stops and gains some confidence.  Halftime is uncomfortably close.  As the game wears on NU starts to doubt itself on offense, while its defense begins to tire.  While the defense is playing well, it can no longer withstand the disadvantage in the time of possession.  Underdog gets a late score.  NU has a chance to win or tie at the end, but the highly confident and rested underdog defense makes the final stand.

Granted, not every upset happens this way.  But it certainly is closer to the rule than the exception.  Just look at the low scores in NU upsets over the years (defined as unranked NU teams over ranked opponents):

·         2010: NU 21 Iowa 17

·         2009: NU 17 Iowa 10

·         2008: NU 24 Minnesota 17

·         2004: NU 13 Purdue 10

·         2003: NU 16 Wisconsin 7

·         1997: NU 19 Michigan State 17

·         1995: NU 17 Notre Dame 15

·         1993: NU 22 Boston College 21

·         1991: NU 17 Illinois 11

While NU has certainly had some higher scoring upsets, the low-scoring affair is generally the more likely recipe.  As can be seen by the stats above, the underdog has a much better chance when their defense is playing well.  On the other hand, generally, when the teams are locked in a shootout, the favored team will prevail.  College football is a game of emotion and defense is the more emotional side of the ball.  If your defense makes some stops early, the offense will eventually score a few points and keep you in the game.  That is when upsets happen.

Why make this analysis?  Well look at how it applied to the Army game.

While the defense gave up 381 yards rushing, it only gave up 6 yards passing.  Army was the best offense that NU has seen in their three games and they held them to their lowest output of the year.  The 387 was still 50 yards less than the average given up by the Cats in 2010; and the 381 rushing by Army was lower than its average in its first two games.  So while it is easy to blame the defense, the statistics suggest otherwise.

That said, the NU defense failed to make big stops when they needed to and the most telling stat of the game was Army’s 3-3 on fourth down.  Army scored on its first drive of the game – but NU made some adjustments and stopped them the rest of the half.  Army made halftime adjustments, and scored on their first drive of the second half.  The NU defense then made four consecutive stops including three drives which totaled nine plays.  But in the end, the NU defense was tired and worn down from the option attack.  After a 14-play drive ended in a missed field goal, NU scored on a quick three-play drive.  The Wildcat defense was gassed and gave up the winning score.

But it was the offense that was the scapegoat in this game.  NU had four three-and-outs including three drives which resulted in negative yardage.  They had three consecutive three-and-outs in the second half.  Prior to the quick touchdown drive late in the game, NU had zero yards of total offense in the second half.  NU’s failure to convert on the first drive of the game and then again on the field goal attempt at the half was the beginning of the end.  These are the things that give an underdog defense its confidence.

One final note: Saturday marked the first time that Fitz removed a QB for strictly performance-based reasons.  Certainly he has sat a starter late during a blowout – and the two-QB system during the end of 2010 was by design.  But for the first time in six years, Fitz made the election to go with someone else while the game was still in doubt.  How this plays in the mind of Kain Colter moving forward will be interesting to watch in the next few years.  With all due respect to Kain, here’s hoping that we do not see him again this season – with the return of Dan Persa on the horizon.

So with no NU game this weekend, let’s look at the Big Ten Power Rankings.

Legends Division

1 Nebraska (+1): Nebraska gets the top spot back by default.  While the game ended in a convincing win, Nebraska again looked mediocre in the first half.  They may have some early issues again when they go to Laramie to face an undefeated Wyoming team.  While Nebraska will likely win, their confidence will continue to be shaken, which is not a good preparation for the Wisconsin showdown.

2 Michigan State (-1): Michigan State managed to force a few turnovers in South Bend and still was destroyed by the Irish.  The young Spartan defense was exposed by the Notre Dame skill players.  While ND sports a better offensive cast than most of the Big Ten; MSU still has some defensive concerns going into conference play.

T-3 Northwestern: If history repeats itself, the Cats will recover from their upset loss and prove that it was just that, an upset.  Dan Persa should return and the Cats should still be an outside contender for the Legends crown.  On the other hand, they had an off week after the Purdue loss last year and still lost to MSU; so the extra week before Illinois may be a non sequitur.

T-3 Michigan (+1): Michigan moves up as one of the four undefeated teams in the conference; although they probably do not deserve the promotion.  Blue’s next test is against NU, so EVR will let them decide it on the field.  They do have a tough test against Brady Hoke’s former team, San Diego State, on Saturday.

5 Iowa: Iowa needed a miracle to avoid losing their season against Pitt.  And this was clearly a game where Pitt simply lost their focus.  Iowa needs a lot of work to get back to where they expect to finish and until then will be secured in the 5 spot.

6 Minnesota: EVR was happy to see the Gophers pick up their first win after two heartbreaking losses.  Minnesota is probably better than Indiana and Purdue, but without playing IU, that still only results in a 3-9 season.

Leaders Division

1 Wisconsin: Wisconsin is sleepwalking through their non-conference schedule.  They should and will be favored against Nebraska on October 1.  With chinks in the armor on the Legends side, November 19 at Illinois could be the Big Ten game of the year.

2 Illinois: Very impressive.  Illinois passed their first true test with flying colors; issuing a minor upset against a ranked Arizona State 17-14 (see analysis above).  Ron Zook has these guys playing very well.  They are the second best team in the division, they avoid Nebraska and Michigan State, and they get Wisconsin and Ohio State at home.  Their toughest road game is Penn State.  The Illini could win 10 games easily.

3 Ohio State: The Buckeyes played one of their most pathetic games of the last ten years Saturday night.  Even the 2008 loss to USC was a loss to a clearly better team.  Miami is a good-but-not-great team made to look like world-beaters by a Buckeye team on the brink.  Colorado has looked competent; but it is a must win as the Buckeyes follow the Buffs with Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin – in that order.  Brutal.

4 Penn State: For the second year in a row, Penn State almost lost to Temple.  But they are still better than Purdue and IU.  PSU will get well with a handful of winnable games which they must sweep if they want to be assured of a season above .500.

T-5 Purdue: Purdue and IU get back their T-5 position after a pair of solid wins over inferior opponents.  Purdue was very efficient on offense and looked like a pretty good team -- even against an inferior opponent.  They get two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame, when reality will set back in. 

T-5 Indiana: The Hoosiers face North Texas in week four – which is their last legitimate chance to win a game until the Purdue game at the end of the season.  Kevin Wilson will do some nice things once Gunner Kiel gets on campus.  But he will need to wait until next year to start that project.

Go Cats!

Game Preview: Northwestern (2-0) at Army (0-2)

Saturday September 17, 2011, 2:30 CST (CBS Sports Network)

ballparks.com

Michie Stadium, West Point, N.Y.

Saturday’s game matches two of the top rushing offenses in the country, but that comes for two different reasons.  NU’s offensive line had been manhandling the front seven of its employees, allowing big pushes on runs – even when holes to not form. Army on the other hand runs the triple option, an offense designed to deceive rather than overpower.  Both teams’ leading rusher is their quarterback – Kain Colter for Northwestern and Trent Steelman for Army.  Meanwhile, questions remain about whether Dan Persa will play and how much.  The game is also a sellout (38,000), which is attributed primarily to the large amount of NU fans attending the game.

regjans.com

This is the fifth meeting between the two programs.  The last time Army faced a Big Ten opponent was the only prior visit to West Point, which resulted in an Army win.  NU had won the three prior matchups, all in Evanston.  Interestingly, Army is 2-0 in its two bowl appearances against Big Ten opponents.  Army will be wearing patches honoring the 82 Airborne Division on Saturday.  Wearing a uniform patch such as this is a tradition for the Army football team.  Army is 1-1 all-time wearing the 82 Airborne patch, with both prior games coming against Duke.

Injury Report

For Northwestern, defenders Collin Ellis (broken finger) and Jack DiNardo (leg) remain out.  Meanwhile, Adonis Smith is listed as “out” at collegeinjuryreport.com.  Mike Trumpy is probable to play after his concussion last week, which should take some pressure of off Jacob Schmidt and Treyvon Green.  Dan Persa is listed as questionable and is a “co-starter” with Kain Colter on the depth chart.  He shared reps in 11 on 11 drills this week, for the first time this year.  EVR is guessing that Dan will see a drive or two just to shake off the cobwebs a bit.  Non-starters Tony Jones, Roderick Goodlow, Brian Arnfelt, and Jared Carpenter are all questionable with their respective minor injuries.

Jarrett Mackey (#94)
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Army quarterback and leading rusher Trent Steelman is probable to play, despite an unspecified injury.  Offensive linemen Derek Bisgard, Momo Kime, and Brad Kelly are also all questionable.  Finally, and maybe the most significant, is that defensive end Jarrett Mackey is questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.  Mackey is the Knights second leading tackler.

Weather Report: Tomorrow will be perfect football weather; high of 68 with a gametime temp around 65.  Partly cloudy with only a 10% chance of rain.  Check with the Weather Channel for updates on the weather.

Inside the Matchups

NU will march its suddenly resurgent running offense against the Navy “double-eagle” defense.  The double eagle is a variation on the famous Chicago Bear defense from the 1985 Super Bowl team.  Army has three true defensive linemen, along with a fourth hybrid player, who is more of a linebacker size, but often plays from a down stance.  Army will also play a linebacker and a defensive back close to the line of scrimmage on the strong side of the offense.  Behind the front 6 are another linebacker and a rover, which is an LB/DB hybrid and finally a single true safety – to go along with the two corners.  It will be curious to see how the double eagle will respond to the NU spread formations.

Erzinger
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Army is lead on defense by senior rover Steven Erzinger, who is the team’s leading tackler and one of the only players on the defensive 11 who is built anywhere close to the size that NU will see in Big Ten defenses.  Erzinger is a versatile player who will play both linebacker and in coverage.  He leads the team in tackles for loss with four, including one of the team’s only two sacks.  He will be a key player for the Knights, as the NU front five should simply overpower the Navy DL.

Army has given up a good amount of rushing yards, thus far, averaging 217 yards per game on six yards per carry.  And this was against Northern Illinois and San Diego State – two teams who do not have the size on the offensive line that NU has.  The three down linemen for Army are 225 – 260 – 220 across the board and are led by nose guard A.J. Mackey.  The defensive set is in part designed to provide speed up front to make up for the lack of size – something that the NU spread should be able to neutralize.  The Cats will certainly get their yards on the ground and look to see a lot more Treyvon Green as the Cats look to keep Mike Trumpy healthy and Kain Colter from getting hit as much. 

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NU should pass the ball more than they did against EIU, when the team only attempted 16 throws.  When they do, look for Colter to pick on freshman corner Lamar Johnson-Harris, who stands only at 5’9” 175.  When NU’s bigger receivers are matched up against him, Harris will struggle.  Free safety Tyler Dickson has the only Army interception of the season, so they are not exactly ball hawks.  The Knights have given up 183 yards per game through the air.

When Army has the ball they present a challenge that the Cats have only had five days to prepare for – the vaunted triple option.  This is the primary weapon for the Knights, who have only attempted 23 passes in two games – for 149 yards.  The option set is run by junior quarterback Trent Steelman.  Not only is he the team’s leading rusher, but he has almost more than twice the carries as anyone else on the team – quite the feat when you consider that six players have more than 13 carries already for Army.  This is indicative of Steelman being a cerebral quarterback, who knows how to read the defense and pitch the ball.  The Cat defense will need to be on guard and watch their pursuit angles.

Steelman makes a timely pitch
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Fitz admitted that Army is going to get its rushing yards tomorrow, which is a disconcerting thought given the recent history of the run defense.  But the Cats have gotten stingy so far this year.  While NU is giving up 4.5 yards per carry, if you remove two long runs, one from each game, the Cats gave up 1.2 per carry to BC and 2.1 to EIU.  This will certainly be a different attack for the Cats however.  Army’s front five are probably the strength of the team and are the most experienced unit with three seniors and two sophomores.  They are a little small for an O-Line, with the biggest being Center Will Wilson at 285.  If NU can use their size advantage to blow up the option plays before they develop, it will be a much easier day for the back seven.

When Steelman does not keep the ball, his best pitchman is junior tailback Malcolm Brown, who is averaging a scary 8.9 yards per carry.  Brown is backed up by freshman phemon Trenton Turrentine, the team’s third leading rusher.  Joining this crew in the backfield is junior back Raymond Maples and junior fullback Jared Hassin.  Army also rotates in their backups quite a bit, so expect to hear Jon Crucitti and freshman fullback Larry Dixon get their name called as well.

On the rare occasion when Army does throw the ball, Steelman will look primarily to Jared McFarlin, who has five of the nine Army receptions on the season – and the only receiving touchdown.  McFarlin is a large target at 6’5” 195 – so look for Steelman to try to find him matched up against Jaravin Matthews, who had so much trouble with BC’s big receivers two weeks ago.  Lining up across from McFarlin is sophomore Anthony Stephens.  Unless Army completely changes its gameplan, this game will be a nice reprieve for s secondary that has struggled a big through two games.  Look for the NU safeties, instead, to help with run support.

Final Analysis

Northwestern is clearly the more imposing team from a size and speed standpoint, an advantage that will see the most impact early, before Army can adjust, and late, once Army has been worn down.  NU will need to get their points here, as this could be a fairly even game otherwise.  Army’s sets are just quirky enough to give a better team fits – so the Cats will need to take care of the ball and avoid costly penalties.  Like Fitz said, Army is going to get their yards on the ground – NU will just need to hold in the end zone and avoid the big gainer.  Look for NU’s hurry up to drown Army’s defense as well.

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NU will get up 10-0 early and the game will exchange scores until the fourth quarter, when NU will take control for good.  Army, like NU, is a team that will never give up, but Fitz will instill that into the team and the Cats will stay on the gas, scoring a pair of insurance touchdowns late.  In the end the game will never truly be in question as the Cats win 37-17.

Go Cats!