Very Sad News

Our thoughts and prayers are with former NU quarterback Zak Kustok and his family today.  His mother Anita "Jeanie" Kustok was found dead yesterday. Very few details are available and an investigation is ongoing by the Orland Park PD. 

News and Notes and Big Ten Thursday

Big Ten Play begins this weekend.  We have three great matchups to discuss, along with two trap games for the visiting favorites.  Breakdowns of those games are below, but first, some Wildcat News and Notes.

The biggest news of the week was Fitz’s decisions, or lack thereof, on the future of the Northwestern running attack.  On the two deep, the Cats list Jacob Schmidt or Mike Trumpy as the starters and Arby Fields or Stephen Simmons as the backups.  Lindsay Wilhite offered his thoughts in the Daily Herald earlier this week.  There is a great deal of talk about Minnesota’s run defense, which gives up 185 yards per game on the ground.  But the Cats only run for 3.2 yards per carry.  At that average, it would take more than 57 running plays to reach 185.  Hopefully, it will not come to that.  Schmidt and Trumpy showed the coaches a lot against CMU, which earned them the “co-starter” roles.  And according to Tina Akouris with the Sun Times, they are excited about the assignment.  But it is put up or shut up time for the NU run game.  If they cannot get the ground attack going against the Gophers, they never will.

A great deal of the national talk over the first few weeks of the season has been the domination of Stanford’s offensive line, which has absolutely pummeled opponents with their physical play.  NU defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz has been looking for the same effect on the defensive side of the ball.  Skip Myslenski takes an in depth look at the NU defensive line in this piece for NUSports.com.  This unit is deep, physical unit is improving every week and appear ready for the challenges that await in the second half of the season.  If the Cats can get through the bye week unscathed, the week off will be a great way for the big fellas to prepare mentally and physically for the grind of the final half of the season.

Bryce McNaul returns to Minnesota on Saturday, and will make his third career start for the Cats.  This Trib piece by Teddy Greenstein outlines how Tim Brewster wanted McNaul to be a Gopher.  Greenstein also gives us good news about the NU secondary as it appears the Carpenter and Arnold both practiced yesterday and may play on Saturday.  For a unit that will be tested by a senior quarterback on Saturday, this is very good news.

Just so everyone is clear, Minnesota is 1-3 and lost to FCS South Dakota.  You would never know that by listening to Coach Fitz.  While Fitz’s claim that the Gophers are three plays away from being undefeated is a little outlandish (two of their losses were by double digits), Fitz is playing the old Lou Holtz game of building up weaker opponents.  There is something nice about a program that needs to focus on not looking past opponents and Fitz seems to be doing it the right way.  There is a big difference between simply saying that Minnesota is good and actually breaking it down for the team.  Another reason why NU is lucky to have him.

In a rather bizarre story out of the Wildcat office this week, it turns out that the Wildcat defense had trouble communicating on Saturday because of crowd noise.  Now, I was not at the game to experience this, but apparently it was a pretty lively audience.  But if this is indeed an issue, the Cats will have to fix it before a night game against Purdue in front of what surely will be a larger and, shall we say, more animated 6:30 crowd.  This is a good problem to have, but it apparently is nonetheless a problem.  Incidentally, according to Lake the Posts.com, CMU was the most attended non-conference game in the Fitz era – and the largest since the 2005 Northern Illinois game.  If we discount the fact that NIU brings a large fan base because of their proximity, it was the most impressive non-conference crowd since the 1998 Duke game.

I usually do not focus on non-football issues, but would be remiss if I did not congratulate Luke Donald on his second place finish in the Tour Championship over the weekend.  He was one shot away from being in a playoff with Jim Furyk, a playoff which would have determined the $10 million FedEx Cup.  Luke had the best season of his career and during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, probably played the best month of golf of his life.  I forget sometimes that he is only 32, and by normal golf standards, just now entering the prime of his career.  There should be great things on the horizon for Donald – just hopefully not this weekend at the Ryder Cup!

If anyone was at the game on Saturday, I would like some thoughts on “Throw your hands in the air”, which is apparently the new fourth quarter hype music.  Comment below.

Big Ten Breakdown

Purdue gets the week off this week, which is good for them considering they have been decimated by injuries.  But not so good for the Cats as they will have two weeks to prepare to stop Dan Persa.  Purdue has not played well this year at all and are in danger of losing all of the momentum that they gained last season. 

Nebraska also has the week off to prepare for a Thursday night matchup with undefeated Kansas State.

Wisconsin @ Michigan State: In the first of two games between ranked teams Saturday, MSU looks to keep its hot start going against the Badgers.  Wisconsin is accustomed to 4-0 starts, while Michigan State usually manages to drop a game or two early, so this is new territory for Sparty.  Apparently, Mark Dantonio will have some role in the game, but will probably be coaching from the press box.  Wisconsin has been very consistent on both sides of the ball.  MSU has had some problems with both scoring and defending on a regular basis.  Despite the home field advantage and the emotional issue with Mark D., I think the Badgers play a more solid all-around game and steal this one.

Penn State @ Iowa: Penn State is in great danger of falling off the map with this game.  The Nits have not been overly impressive in any of their games, including a 22-13 struggle against Temple last week.  Iowa had a bit of a hiccup at Arizona, but went right back to Iowa football.  The offense seems to have improved a little bit and finally has a consistent force at running back.  But the Iowa defense needs to play four quarters and stop taking the first half off.  The Hawkeye D is full of NFL talent, but they rarely play that way.  If the defense shows up, Iowa wins this one, potentially big.

Michigan @ Indiana: This might be one of the more intriguing matchups of the day, and it could certainly be the most exciting game.  This game will present us with two teams with very potent offenses and two very weak defenses.  Denard Robinson appears to be ready to play after sitting out the second half against BGSU with an injury.  Ben Chappell is putting up some nice numbers and has to be salivating over the thought of torching the Wolverine secondary.  IU is still sore over the poor call which cost them a chance to win last year, but it probably will not be enough.  Shoelace will find a way to lead Big Blue to Victory no matter what the deficit.

Ohio State @ Illinois: Pundits are wondering whether this will be game that trips up the Buckeyes, much like the Purdue game last year.  Difference being that last year Purdue was lead by a veteran defense and a senior quarterback.  Illinois has neither.  This will get ugly early.

Northwestern @ Minnesota: I will obviously get a lot more into this tomorrow, but this is a must win game for both teams.  NU cannot afford to lose to a team like Minnesota; there is too much going good for the program right now.  Minnesota is playing the rest of the year for Brewster’s job, and they have to view this game as “winnable”, whether that is a valid viewpoint or not.

Big Ten Power Rankings:

1 OSU

2 Wisconsin

3 Iowa

4 MSU

5 Northwestern

6 PSU

7 Michigan

8 Indiana

9 Illinois

10 Purdue

11 Minnesota

Go Cats!

Sunday Morning Superback

Northwestern Defeats Chippewas in 30-25 Slop-fest

Photo Credit: dailyherald.com

Twenty penalties; five turnovers; four blocked kicks; a plethora of replay reviews -- yet in the end the only numbers that matter for the Wildcats is 4-0.

Despite the final score there was never really a feeling that the Cats were in any danger.  But there was certainly some discomfort, probably just from how disjointed the game appeared.  

The fact is that this was a nice win against a pretty good opponent.  NU scored more points than CMU had allowed in its previous three games combined and became the first team this season to score against the Chips in either the first or fourth quarters.

Ordinarily, there would not be a lot to take from a game such as this.  But a lot of the trends that have developed in the first three games were confirmed against CMU.  As NU prepares for its next two games, against the weakest two opponents in the Big Ten, continuing these trends should result in continued success.

More than anything, this version of the Northwestern Wildcats has proven to be very opportunistic.  Of the Cats 120 points scored this season, Northwestern has scored 13 in its first drive of the game and 55 points directly off of turnovers.  The defense needs to figure out how to keep up the intensity for the entire game, as they have now given up a later touchdown against each of its FBS opponents.  But overall, the Cats have been very consistent and very successful in a number of different aspects of the game.

Dan Persa continued his fabulous season and is developing into the conference's best passing quarterback -- and he can run a little bit too.  He finally proved human by throwing his first interception, but still has only thrown one in 106 passing attempts.  Most of all, he has engineered the opportunistic Wildcat offense.  Every time in the first four games that the Cats needed a score to make a statement, Persa has delivered.  Remember too that the offensive performance would have been even more impressive in the last two games were it not for two Arby Fields fumbles.  NU is certainly happy that it has not needed to make a come-from-behind drive yet (the Cats have not trailed all year), this team will feel confident with Persa at the helm.

Mike Trumpy and Jacob Schmidt were the unlikely heroes of the second half and may have solidified themselves as the feature running backs for this team.  The Wildcats still only averaged 3.2 yards-per-carry (again) but Trumpy picked up 4.4 on 12 carries and Schmidt ran for 5.3 on six runs.  Arby Fields continued to struggle to pick up yards and for the second time in as many weeks fumbled in the red zone on a drive that would have put the nail in the coffin.  Minnesota has a pretty feeble run defense, so the Cats should have more opportunities than they have seen so far.  But Fitz has no tolerance for fumbles and Arby's touches may be very limited going forward.  This is a passing team, and all it needs is a competent run game to keep defenses honest.  Right now, Trumpy and Schmidt look like they will be able to carry that weight where Arby has been unable.

Jeremy Ebert is becoming the Cats play-maker.  Another five catches and 83 yards, but most importantly the two touchdowns.  But once again, Persa spread the ball around to seven different receivers.  Meaning that Ebert and Persa's favorite target, Drake Dunsmore and going to continue to see opportunities to score.

The Offensive Line had its weakest performance of the year.  It gave up 4 sacks and continued to be impaired in its run-blocking.  The holding penalties were also too plentiful.  Again, Minnesota should give the Cats some opportunities to shape up this front line.  But the O-Line continues to be one of the biggest disappointments.

Jack DiNardo did not record a tackle, an assist, nor did hear appear anywhere in the defensive box score.  But he was credited with all three blocked kicks and continues to be a quiet play-maker for the Cats.  (Niko Mafuli was given partial credit for the third block, in his first game back from injury).  DiNardo is a very athletic lineman and is a great asset on this team.

The Defense as a whole continued to play with emotion the entire game.  Fortunately, they were able to overcome the early penalties with an interception on the Chips first drive.  Some other highlights included the continued strong play of Hunter Bates.  While you never want to see a defensive back be the leading tackler (Brian Peters was second with 7), his 11 take-downs will continue to get him some more playing time.  Quentin Williams only had one tackle but also knocked down a pass and recorded his first career interception when he dropped back into coverage on a nice zone blitz.  Browne, Davie, and Bryant all recorded sacks.  The D has players all over that can step up and make a big play when necessary.  But they need to avoid the late lapses that have led to late opponent scores.

The Wildcats are starting to develop their personality.  And Cat fans should be happy about what they are seeing.  The running game and the ability of the defense to play 60 minutes will continue to be concerns until further notice.  But if the Cats can continue to play consistently, they should be 6-0 going into the October 23 showdown with MSU.

Go Cats!

Central Michigan (2-1) at Northwestern (3-0)

Saturday, September 25, 2010 11:00 CST

Dyche Stadium, Evanston, Illinois

Photo credit: hailtopurple.com

Northwestern struggled to get things going early against Rice last week, but in the end cruised to a 30-13 victory lead by outstanding defensive play.  Central Michigan routed in-state rival Eastern Michigan (who has now lost 15 straight games) 52-14 to begin the season 2-1.  NU and CMU have never met, but both are very familiar with their respective conferences.  NU is 15-8-1 all-time against the MAC, including eight in a row.  The Chippewas are 4-19 all-time against the Big Ten, but have won their last two, including an upset victory over Michigan State last year.  Both teams have similar strengths as they both rank in the top ten nationally in scoring defense and both average over 30 points per game.

Injury Report: David Arnold (foot) remains out for the CMU game.  But Jared Carpenter is expected to play tomorrow at safety after sitting out last week in Houston.  Niko Mafuli (leg) is listed as questionable for CMU.  Freshman wideout Tony Jones (shoulder) is still out; and reserve LB Roderick Goodlow (knee) is now expected to miss the entire season.  Get well soon boys!

College Injury Report.com does not report any injuries for the Chippewas.

Weather: Was looking like a perfect day for football earlier in the week.  But now the forecast calls for some light rain.  Strong winds are expected too, over 20 mph.  Click here for the Weather.com forecast.

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Dan Persa: It is sort of funny to say that Dan Persa "struggled" in the first half of a game where he ended up 24-32 and set career highs for completions and yards (307).  But he solidified his role as the leader of the team in Houston last Saturday.  When things were not going right for the offense, he stepped up and led the team to three strong scoring drives, and a fourth which resulted in a goal-line fumble.  Central Michigan has a veteran defense, starting all juniors and seniors.   The Chips have given up some decent passing numbers, but are stout against the run.  So Dan will need to demonstrate his moxie from the gun. 


Photo credit: lindyssports.com

Nick Bellore (LB): Bellore will start his 45th consecutive game this weekend.  If the Chips can make it to the MAC Championship game and a Bowl, he will break the all time FBS record for consecutive starts.  He is also the nation's active leader in career tackles, which as we know is indicative of his 45 starts.  But he is a beast totaling double-digit tackles 20 times in his career.  He is a perfect size MLB at 6'1" 250; and should give the struggling NU running game fits.  On the other hand, he is not used much as a pass rusher as he has only tallied 4.5 career sacks.  Look for Bellore to drop into coverage on passing downs rather than blitzing.

Demetrius Fields: Fields finally had a breakout game against Rice with six catches, and looks primed to continue this high level of performance.  He is getting pushed by Venric Mark on the two-deep, but the big sophomore Fields is rising to the challenge.  At 205, Fields is NU's biggest wideout, which is why he was a popular target against Rice's unusually large DBs.  The Chippewas have a normal sized defensive backfield, which will give Fields a nice size advantage.  Look for him over the middle especially against man-to-man coverage.

In the trenches: NU’s offensive line continues to improve each week.  Yet they still gave up two sacks (one against Watkins while Persa regained his breath).  The tackles continue to get tested by athletic DEs and they will again against the Chips.  Joe Kinville (6'2" 248) and Kashawn Fraser (6'3" 247) are quick pass rushers who will use their height to get around unsuspecting tackles (think Corey Wootton).  NU should be able to manage the middle of the line fairly well.  But the maturation process of Pat Ward and Al Netter remains the biggest question mark on the offense. 

Overall impression: CMU has been known for its offense for the last few years.  They still have a few remnants from the Brian Kelly era and, of course, Dan LaFevour led the team for four years.  But its defense has slowly crept up to become a strength of the team.  They have only given up four scoring drives all year.  NU has scored on its first possession in each of its games.  Something has to give.  Look for NU to be methodical, but do not expect this to be the game where the running game opens up.  The wind could be a major factor in NU's ability to be effective offensively.

When Central Michigan has the Ball:

Players to watch…Paris Cotton (RB): Cotton (Jr.) was named the MAC's Offensive Player of the week for his performance against Eastern Michigan.  Cotton is a small shifty back at only 5'9" 179, but he has speed to burn.  NU will need to contain Cotton first and deal with the passing game second.  NU's run defense did a much better job containing Sam McGuffie last week than they did against Vandy.  So hopefully this is a gradual improvement.


Photo credit: mlive.com



Quentin Davie: Northwestern’s defensive playmaker was the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week last week with his monster performance in the heat of Houston.  He has three interceptions, including his pick-six against Rice.  CMU quarterback Ryan Radcliff is starting only his fourth game, and while he has put up some nice numbers, he is still young and inexperienced.  Davie will need to lead his defense into putting pressure on Radcliff.

Cody Wilson (WR): This sophomore wideout has recorded two 100-yard games thus far and has found the end zone twice.  He is a small, but quick wideout who could be dangerous if he finds his way into space.  The CMU offense is designed around spreading the ball around to its various receivers.  NU cannot get caught up in the distribution, but must keep their eye on this youngster.  Mabin will have his hands full. 

In the trenches: CMU's offensive line is large and is comprised of all juniors and seniors.  With that said, CMU only ran for 43 yards in their 13-10 loss to Temple.  NU's front seven should be able to contain the run and put pressure on Radcliff.  This unit has played well this year, but has not seen anything like the Wildcat defense this year.

Overall Impression: CMU has put up some nice offensive numbers, but against Temple, it managed only 10 points and 43 rushing yards -- against Temple.  Typical of a lot of MAC offenses over the years, there are a lot of eye-popping numbers available to cover up a lot of problems.  The Wildcats should be able to continue to play at their aggressive pace, but they have to be more considerate of the big play than in prior weeks.

Intangibles: The wind and the potential for rain will be a big problem as both teams will need to rely on the pass in order to move the ball.  The quarterback who is able to keep his composure will have the major advantage.  Radcliff is not a runner, so advantage Persa in that area.  The ability for the QBs to get out of trouble and make plays will be the difference in this game.

Bottom Line: CMU will make this game uncomfortable.  But they have already shown a complete inability to perform against a stronger defense.  The more intriguing aspect is how NU will be able to move the ball given the weather and the veteran defense.  NU will squeeze out its points in the end, but it will not be easy.

Cats win 27-17.

Go Cats!

Big Ten Wednesday (Thursday)

Well it appears that Big Ten Wednesday has become Big Ten Thursday once again. I will attribute that to my laziness.

Speaking of laziness, I present to you the week 4 Big Ten schedule. It consists of eight games against MAC school, two games against FCS school (Illinois is off) an even Nebraska plays FCS South Dakota State. I cannot remember a worse non-conference weekend. I will not waste your time and mine by trying to break down these games other than I think that all 11 games are Big Ten winners (including Nebraska) and that Michigan (Bowling Green) and Penn State (Temple) are in the most peril for an upset.

Week three gave us even less clarity on the Big Ten power rankings as the gap between two and six is getting smaller. I do feel vindicated for my placement of Michigan at seven (where they will stay). Also, my intent was to stay up long enough to make Iowa my feature team of the week. But alas, I could not stay up that long. So instead I will break down Michigan State, who won a heart-stopper (sorry bad pun. Seriously Mark D. Get well soon. We all want you back on the sidelines ASAP; our thoughts and prayers are with you) against Notre Dame on Saturday.

1 Ohio State: Right now the Buckeyes are in another league than the rest of the conference. This is not to say that they are not capable of losing, or that they could compete with an Alabama. But they are playing some of the best football on the planet right now and should go into the Wisconsin game on October 16 undefeated.

2 Wisconsin: The Badgers get this spot by default, primarily because they won and Iowa did not. But the Badgers need to show more consistency on offense than they did at home against Arizona State. As usual, the Badgers play a mildly ambitious non-conference schedule, so we know a good deal more about them than most teams. With that said, Wisconsin has a lot of work to do before October 16.

3 Iowa: The Hawkeyes continued their string of poor performances on west coast trips with a loss to Arizona. The vaunted Iowa defense had another on of its first half lapses that we have seen many times over the last two seasons. Iowa has some great NFL-caliber talent on that defense, and they may have the best defensive line in the game. But the bottom finally fell out Saturday night, and the offense was unable to recover. This unit needs to work on it's chemistry or competent offenses will continue to have their way in the first half of games.

Featured Big Ten Team of the Week
4 Michigan State
The Spartans are an interesting team. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Maybe more than people expected going into the year. But the primary problem is inconsistency. For instance, on offense against Notre Dame, when MSU scored, they scored quickly, and efficiently. But other times, the offense really sputtered. Case in point, when Brian Kelly gave MSU a gift by going for it on fourth down at midfield with 6 minutes left, MSU could not move the ball and squandered the opportunity. Better ball control offenses, such as Wisconsin and Northwestern should be able to keep the MSU offense off the field, thus limiting its opportunities to be explosive and increasing the chances of winning.

On the other side of the ball, we saw the same problem. Notre Dame had some occasions when they moved the ball right over MSU, for instance the drive that lead to the go ahead TD at the end of the third / beginning of the fourth quarter. But at other times, the pressure of the front seven is dominating. Jones and his crew up front will cover up a lot of holes in the secondary. And weaker offenses will crumble under the pressure. But veteran and composed quarterbacks that can get into a rhythm will be able to score on these guys.

MSU will receive a great deal of residual benefit from the events of Saturday night and Sunday morning. In addition to the emotional lift of a great win, the confidence in Dantonio is at an all time high. Add to that a win one for coach attitude, and this could be a dangerous team, notwithstanding their on field issues.

T-5 Penn State: The Nits have just been downright unimpressive, which why they were relegated to a tie for fifth.  In their two "easy" games, the offense looked lost in the first halves, before turning it on in the second half.  And against Alabama, PSU was just outclassed at every position.  This is not to say that they do not have the talent to be among the top five in the league; but they have certainly underachieved their way to this spot.

T-5 Northwestern: The most impressive thing about the Wildcats season has been how well Vanderbilt has played; thus justifying, in some ways, the close game in Nashville.  NU has just played solid on both sides of the ball.  The running game will continue to be the Achilles heel, but the distance between Northwestern and Wisconsin in the power rankings is shrinking every week.

7 Michigan: Michigan's porous secondary reared its ugly head once again against Massachusetts, demonstrating that regardless of the play of Denard Robinson, this team is not quite ready for prime time.  There is no doubt that it will outscore teams.  But against teams with a legit defense and a competent offense, Michigan will have a difficult time keeping it close.  DR is still the most fun player to watch in the conference right now.

T-8 Purdue:Notre Dame, it has limped along against two MAC schools.  What was expected to be a potent offense has been a little slow.  The loss of Smith for the year has not helped much.

T-8 Indiana Despite the fact that they have not played anyone with a pulse, the Indiana offense has been pretty exciting to watch.  Chappell was the Big Ten Player of the Week in Week 3.  This team is strikingly similar to last year, and I do not know whether the end record will be any different.  But at the very least they will be fun to watch.

10 Minnesota: The Gophers played admirably against USC on Saturday.  Pretty good for a team that they did not even belong on the field with.  Maybe it is a home field advantage, maybe just the excitement of playing USC, but that first half might be the highlight of the season.

11 Illinois: It is going to continue to be a long season.  Saturday might be their last win.

X Nebraska: Are the Huskers that good or is Washington that bad?  Either way, their Freshman QB is amazing to watch and will give Big Ten defenses fits for the next three years.

Go Cats!

First Quarter Grades for the Northwestern Wildcats

The Northwestern Wildcats are at the quarter pole of the season, and Cat fans know a little more about the 2010 version of the team than we did four weeks ago. But the difficult part of reaching this point is the realization of just how short the season is, and how far this team still has to go.

So with that in mind, I have given some mid-term grades in a variety of areas. I have also tried to gauge whether there is enough room for improvement in the allotted time, i.e. the next ten weeks. The hope is that this will provide the proper context for what to look for during the next three games, all of which are critical wins to set the table for the second half of the season.

On offense, the passing game is obviously beyond the wildest expectations of even the most positive-minded Cat fan. The fact that Persa's first half against Rice was considered a lousy stretch is testament to how well he has played. But it is not just his accuracy and decision-making; the receiving corps deserves its props as well. They have run crisp routes, placed themselves in great positions, and made the catches look easy. The start was so close to perfect for this unit, it would be difficult to see improvement. But it will eventually be tested by a solid pass defense, and will need to be even better.
Midterm grade: A

The running game is performing exactly as expected, which is not a good thing. Having only seen one game straight through, it is really hard to gauge whether it is more the fault of the backs or the line. Against Vandy, it was a bit of both, and the 'Dores have a solid run D. But against ISU and Rice, NU should have been able to do better than 3.2 yards per carry. Fortunately having a bad running game is not like having no passing attack. With the latter, the D can stack the box and dare you to throw. The opposite is not true. Teams will still need to keep at least 5 guys home, maybe 6, to guard the run or Arby would run right through them. So while this unit does not look like it will ever tear up the world, it will certainly keep defenses honest for Persa and his crew.
Midterm grade: C-

The Cats pass defense has been very impressive, but there are some worries. The front seven have put great deal of pressure on opposing QBs, and there have been an impressive number of interceptions (6)
through the three games. A lot of the pass yardage against ISU and Rice was late in the game when they were passing exclusively against a lot of Wildcat reserves. But there is still a lot of concern about how well a super star receiver will be able to run free in the NU defensive backfield. Also, the injury bug may hurt this unit as well. Recall that a lot of the reason for the Syracuse and Minnesota losses last year was the decimated secondary. At the same time, Hunter Bates did a great job covering for Carpenter at the last minute. Getting David Arnold will give the secondary an added level of intensity.
Midterm grade: B

The run defense was pretty sloppy against Vandy, but has steadily improved over the last two weeks. It was not that the defense was missing assignments in Nashville, they we simply not making tackles. That comes with intensity and focus and that falls on the coaches. Until the Cats see another legit running attack (and yes, I consider Vandy legit) the jury will still be out on the ability to stop the run. This could really be a strong element of this team if they can maintain the focus necessary to make the big stop and avoid the big
gain.
Midterm grade: B-

NU's opponents were not expected to show much in these first three weeks. Vandy, however has been surprisingly stout, and has the potential to actually win some games in a significantly diminished SEC east. Right now they may beat Tennessee, Kentucky, and possibly even Georgia on a good day. A nice story in Nashville could really be a boom for NU. Rice played solid for part of the game against Texas, but their week two victim North Texas had a horrible loss last week to Army. Rice won't win many games, bug might surprise a few more teams and at the very least improve upon its two win 2009.
Midterm grade: C+

The fans have been a really nice surprise so far. Whether it be the team's success, the marketing efforts, or some other reason, the Cat fans are already building up their next bowl game resume. I would guess there were 4000 fans in purple in Nashville, and some estimated that close to half of the 15,000 in Houston were NU faithful. But most important was the impressive showing of 25,000 against ISU on a rainy Saturday -- almost double the attendance of 2009's Towson game. Evanston Day this Saturday looks like it will be a success and the Wrigley game is officially sold out. Apparently season tickets are up by quite a bit as well. It will still be some time before Dyche returns to 95-96 levels of attendance, but beating Purdue and starting
6-0 will make homecoming a hot ticket.
Midterm grade: B+

The coaching has been pretty strong so far. There was a little lack of preparedness for Vandy, but overall, the focus and the play calling has been on point regardless of the results. Most fans would have liked to see the offense open up a little more in the second half against ISU, but it is hard to blame the coaches for that. Overall, there has been very little to complain about, and that is one of the best compliments you can give a coaching staff.
Midterm grade: A-

Overall, there is very little regret about the first three games, which is far more than anyone could say through three games last year -- and 2009 was a stronger team "on paper". But this squad has some nice chemistry and is performing at a very high level, most importantly, from whistle to gun. Especially if Vandy continues to play well, fans will look back on these first three games as a great success. There is a lot of work to be done and NU is nowhere close to the real meat of the schedule, but Fitz has made his mark by producing teams that get better as the season goes on, and if that holds to form, there is the outside potential for a special season. I hold to my prediction of 8 wins right now, but am close to saying the Cats could knock off an MSU or a PSU. Only time will tell.

Go Cats!!

Sunday Morning Superback

Defense Leads the Way as Cats Cruise to Victory

Photo credit: chicagotribune.com

On a day where the Big Ten was involved in a number of close games, it was good to be on the Ohio State and Penn State side of the ledger – rather than going down to the wire like Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and MSU.  This was due to defense that was a suffocating as the Texas heat, and an efficient offense that, at least in the second half, continued to write the legend of Dan Persa.

The Cats are 3-0 for just the third time in the Expect Victory Era (2001, 2008) and look to continue their solid start against Central Michigan next Saturday.  The reports that I have read say that the online streaming was awful.  But CBS College sports has a highlight package to watch (although the second half highlights are from field level).

I usually start with the offense in my analysis, but in fairness to how the ‘D’ played last night, I will give them their accolades first.

Quentin Davie played one of the best games of his career.  He finished with 10 tackles, two for loss and a half-sack.  He also recorded the pick-six that finally blew the game open for the Wildcats.  In a game such as this, where the offense is sputtering, the defense often needs a leader to step forward and keep the team on its toes.  Davie filled that role with an emotion-filled performance.  The Cats will need Davie to repeat this level of play during the Big Ten season, so it is good to see that he is capable.

Vince Browne finished with seven tackles and a sack deep in Rice territory.  This is indicative of how the Cats played the field position game all night, which was also a good sign.  Important to know that, especially with NU’s new-found talent at punter, the defense can hold teams deep, which allows the offense to (eventually) capitalize.  Browne also forced the fumble that lead to Demos’ second field goal.

Hunter Bates was a last second starter at safety in the place of Jared Carpenter.  Bates had a great game, not only in the secondary, but returning punts.  The “other number 7” recorded his first career interception late in the game.  He also ran back the longest NU punt return in a few years with his 33 yarder that set up the third-quarter TD pass to Ebert.  It is very good to see that even with Arnold and Carpenter out, the secondary play is strong.

Stefan Demos got back on track last night, connecting on all six of his kicks.  Maybe it was the Outback Bowl hangover; maybe it was the highly competitive long-snapper position battle, but in either event, it is good to have you back Stefan.  Demos’ average kickoff was inside the five, a nice touch.

Dan Persa had a rather pedestrian first half, where he threw more incompletions than he had all season.  But after a 9-10 second half, we learned not only that Dan’s efficiency is here to stay, but also that he is mentally capable of overcoming a slow start.  Given that the running game continues to suck, Persa becomes more and more important to the offense.  At this point, he is officially a Big Ten POY candidate. 

The Offensive Line was business as usual, which is not necessarily a good thing.  The pass protection was very good at giving Persa time, although gave up three sacks – very much like the Vandy game.  The run blocking continued to struggle as the entire running game averaged 3.2 yards per carry – again.  Cat fans can officially be worried as NU failed to run the ball against another weak defense.

Drake Dunsmore once again lead the team in receptions, although failed to get into the end zone for the first time this year.  Jeremy Ebert broke free on a nice third quarter TD catch and run.  Persa said that he knew Ebert would score as soon as he threw it.  Demetrius Fields also finished with six receptions.  The beauty of this Wildcat offense is the ability to spread the ball around.  Eight receivers caught balls last night.

Arby Fields and the running game had another disappointing game.  Fields had the opportunity to finish strong, but fumbled at the goal line, a move which is sure to earn the ire of Coach Fitz.  The Wildcats won eight games with no running game, but if they want to survive the Big Ten schedule in ’10, it has to at least be competent.  It is not there yet.

A few other odds and ends: Carpenter’s injury was listed as a back strain; hopefully it is not too serious.  Demetrius Dugar left the game with a head injury.  Dan Persa missed a few plays in the second quarter when he had the wind knocked out of him.  NU held human-highlight-real Sam McGuffie to 78 yards from scrimmage.  NU is now 94-90 in the Expect Victory Era.

Go Cats!

Game Preview: Northwestern (2-0) at Rice (1-1)

Saturday, September 18, 2010 6:00 CST

Rice Stadium, Houston Texas

Photo credit: ricefootball.net

Northwestern dominated FCS Illinois State in Evanston last Saturday with a 37-3 win, its largest margin of victory in almost five years.  Rice is coming off its first win of the season, a 32-31 road victory at North Texas, the Owls first non-conference road win since 2006.  Rice and Northwestern have met five times previously, three times in Houston, with Rice leading the series 4-1.  The last meeting was in 1998, a rather unimpressive 23-14 Wildcat win in Houston.  Expect Victory fans may remember the 1997 game, a 40-34 Owl victory in Evanston.  In that game, Rice ran the option all over the Wildcat defense – if my memory serves me right, it had more than 500 yards rushing.  Rice is 5-14 all time against the Big Ten.

Injury Report: Good news here as Outside Linebacker Bryce McNaul (shoulder) has been upgraded to probable and is listed as a starter in NU’s two-deep.  The Cats will need the depth in the Texas heat tomorrow night.  On the other hand, backup DT Niko Mafuli (leg) was downgraded to doubtful, although everything points to a return within the month for Niko.  OL Keegan Grant (Illness) and FS David Arnold (foot) are also questionable.  Given the conditions, they may be called into service in a pinch.

For the Owls, Quarterback Taylor McHargue is out with a separated shoulder.  He led Rice to their game-winning touchdown last week.  Starting Tight End Vance McDonald (shoulder) is also out.  Rice is also playing the season without their All-Conference USA Defensive Tackle Scott Solomon.

Weather: Hot and humid. 93 with a light wind.  Coach Fitz says that he plans to bring 70 players to the game and use as many as 67. Check out the Weather.com forecast.

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Dan Persa: Dan’s spot as the Wildcat offense player to watch is hereby solidified until further notice.  He has been scary efficient and should continue to be so as long as his line gives him time.  Rice plays a 4-2-5 set, basically a permanent nickel.  Usually this is indicative of a lack of depth or talent at Linebacker.  We may see Persa running the option more, as well as more slants and in routes.  Every starting DB for Rice is listed as 6’1”, which makes for some taller Cornerbacks.  This may limit patterns that would require NU’s receivers to out-jump the defender.  There are two sophomores in the secondary however, so the Cats may try to expose the youth.

Photo credit: minerillustrated.com

Travis Bradshaw (FS): It is never a good sign when your leading tackler is your free safety.  He is a second team All-Conference USA selection by Phil Steele.  Bradshaw joined the Owls as a walk-on and is a great story.  His 10 tackles in the opener against Texas marked his tenth straight game with double-digit tackles.  He is a quick safety who should keep big gains to a minimum.  Rice needs to avoid leaving Bradshaw one-on-one against Dunsmore, however, as this would be a major mismatch.

Jeremy Ebert: Ebert is the Wildcats leading receiver so far this year and is taking on the role of a dangerous possession receiver.  He, along with the rest of the NU receiving corps, are giving up a little size to the tall Rice secondary.  But he should make up for it with his experience and his route running.  If Ebert and Persa get into a rhythm, they could have a very successful evening.

In the trenches: NU’s offensive line was much stronger against ISU last week.  Rice’s defensive line is more experienced than the Redbirds, but they are a similar size – even a little smaller on the ends.  Cheta Ozougwu and Kramer Lucio are quick pass rushers, but are the size of Big Ten linebackers.  NU’s tackles should be able to push them around in the running game.  But needs to make sure to protect Persa without holding.

Overall impression: Fitz indicated that he might slow down the offense a little to counteract the heat.  That might work a double advantage.  There are a lot of holes in this defense, but there are strengths as well.  Persa will need to take his time and make his reads.  The weakness at linebacker will generally mean fewer blitzes. If Persa has time to throw, the Cats should be in really good shape.  Also, the 4-2-5 is generally a good defense to run against.  Arby Fields should be able to continue to build his confidence.  As long as the Cats do not get exhausted, they should be able to score some points. 

When Rice has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Photo credit: chron.com

Nick Fanuzzi (QB): Fanuzzi makes his first start of the season in place of the injured McHargue.  But Fanuzzi started eight games in 2009, so he is no stranger to taking snaps in real time.  With that said, Rice was 2-10 last year, so he has his work cut out for him.  The Wildcat defense were animals last week and will be ready to feast again.  Fanuzzi’s composure could be one of the keys to the game.  He is 15-26 for 212 yards with one TD and one pick in seeing about half of the pass plays for the Owls this season.  He has a pair of senior receivers to throw to, including 6’3” Pierre Beasley.  But the loss of his TE McDonald will take away a solid target.

Jordan Mabin: Northwestern’s junior corner has vastly improved over the course of his career.  But NU has traditionally had problems with tall talented receivers.  No doubt, Mabin will be assigned to Beasley – unless NU decides to match up Justan Vaughn, who has a slight height advantage on Mabin.  Either way, the corners will be tested and their ability to keep their man marked will be a difference maker.

Sam McGuffie (RB): McGuffie is not a starter, but he may be the most electrifying player on the field.  The transfer from Michigan saw his first playing time as an Owl against Texas and scored on a thrilling 51-yard reception against North Texas.  McGuffie is best known as a Youtube sensation for his jumping ability. If you have not seen McGuffie's high school highlight reel, check this out.  He does not have the ability to leap taller, faster, and stronger college players, but he is nonetheless a big weapon that the Cats will have to contain.

In the trenches: Rice’s offensive line is smaller than ISU, which is a problem for them.  NU’s defensive line absolutely dominated the Redbirds’ front line and should do much of the same against the Owls.  Senior Scott Mitchell, who has been a starter since 2007 anchors the line at LT.

Overall Impression: There is no reason why the Wildcat defense should not be able to control this game.  But if the Cats are not able to put pressure on Fanuzzi, he will have time to find his tall receivers.  And McGuffie is the wildcard.  NU needs to do what they can to keep the ball away from him in space.

Intangibles: The weather will be an issue.  But it will be an issue for both teams.  Just because Rice is accustomed to the heat, does not mean that they are not affected by it.  The kicking game could also be a key.  NU has struggled with placekicking thus far; Rice’s kicker made to 50+ yard field goals last week.

Bottom Line: NU has not lost to a non-BCS team since their loss to Nevada in 2006.  I do not see it happening here.  Granted, this is the “type of game that the Cats lose,” as the cynics would say.  But the numbers just do not add up to an upset.  Rice will play tough.  But the Cats will continue to roll.

Cats win 31-13.

Go Cats!

Big Ten Football Wednesday (on Thrusday)

News and Notes:

Before getting into the rundown of the Big Ten’s first week, some news and notes on the Cats.

There are still a lot of questions about how to watch the NU – Rice game on Saturday night.  I know that Rice is playing it online and evidently you can watch it on Flo TV.  Lake the Posts is all over this issue, so follow it for up to date information on watching the game.

Speaking of the game, it is going to be crazy hot in Houston on Saturday.  Keep up to date with the Weather Channel Online.  According to the Trib Fitz plans to bring 70 players and could play as many as 67 in order to counteract the weather.  He also told Teddy Greenstein that he would consider slowing down the offense a little to account for the weather.  This may not be a bad idea, as long as it does not affect the intensity and confidence of the offensive attack.

Thanks to Sippin on Purple for doing the research and finding that Pete DiPrimio of the Fort Wayne News-Sentinal gave the Cats their single AP vote.  See his ballot here.    

Most of the other news stories of the week were retweeted on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Follow me at www.Twitter.com/expectvictoryrt

Big Ten Rundown:

For the first time there is some movement in my rankings, but not as much as you might think.  My picks from last week: 9-2.

1 Ohio State: The only thing that I was wrong about last week is that I predicted that Miami would give OSU some trouble.  The Buckeye defense is suffocating and forced plenty of turnovers.  OSU has some breathing room now before it begins to prepare for the meat of its schedule.  They play Ohio on Saturday. Prediction: WIN

T-2 Iowa: Iowa had no problems with their in-state rivals, a team that has caused them problems in the past.  The team is looking very efficient, but will be tested for the first time at Arizona this weekend.  The late start might be an intangible issue, but the bigger issue is the Wildcats themselves.  They were in the hunt for the Pac 10 title late last year.  Iowa cannot afford to turn the ball over and give Arizona a short field.  Prediction: WIN

T-2 Wisconsin: Wisconsin had another pretty solid game against a team that did not provide much of a challenge in San Jose State.  Wisconsin stays at home this week and hosts Arizona State.  ASU is not expected to do much in the Pac 10 this year, and the mid-level teams in this conference have been less than impressive so far.  Camp Randall will be rocking for this late-afternoon tilt. Prediction: WIN

4 Michigan State: MSU was not particularly impressive, but came away with an easy victory.  It gets its first report card game Saturday against Notre Dame.  MSU does not have the running threat at QB that Michigan did.  But working over the middle against the ND zone should be able to put points on the board.  ND made great adjustments at halftime against Michigan, so MSU will be well-advised to get their points early and strap-in the defense.  This game is traditionally exciting.  Prediction: WIN in OT

5 Penn State: The Nits were absolutely outclassed by Alabama Saturday night, which killed the momentum of an absolutely dominating Big Ten Saturday.  The only reason that Penn State keeps its position is that they were playing the defending National Champion and I am not certain that anyone below PSU on this list could have fared any better.  They get a breather against Kent this weekend.  Prediction: WIN

6 Northwestern: Had a dominating performance against a highly inferior team.  Fitz called in the dogs early when many more points could have been scored.  Rice will pose some more matchup problems on offense, but the Cats should be able to score in bunches.  The heat will be the biggest factor in this game.  Prediction: WIN

Feature Team of the Week

7 Michigan: I was able to see Michigan live this weekend and I have some mixed feelings about placing them at 7.  Denard Robinson is as advertised and seeing him live was a thing of beauty.  But there are some issues that Michigan will need to overcome if they want to hit the big time.  The rest of the running game struggled mightily against a mediocre ND run defense.  ND stayed in their lanes a lot better in the second half and almost shut them down long enough to come back and win the game.  More disciplined defenses such as Iowa, OSU, and MSU should be able to shut down Robinson from the beginning.  Robinson’s passing numbers against the Irish are a little misleading too.  He found receivers on quick slants in enormous holes in the defense, which went for big yards on a few occasions.  The better defenses will not allow this to happen

On defense, Michigan has big problems.  Very few would dispute that ND would have won the game if Crist would have played the entire first half.  He carved up the Michigan defense, and allowed the running game to be pretty successful as well.  When an offense gets in a rhythm, this defense is in trouble.  While the Blue did a nice job of shutting down Michael Floyd, the long TD to Kyle Rudolph, when a Tight End was running free behind the secondary, would have been repeated on at least two more occasions had Crist not overthrown the ball.

Michigan should start off 5-0, which will put them well on their way to a bowl, but there are very disappointing things in the Wolverines’ future.  Prediction: WIN.

8 Purdue: Purdue took care of business and now gets Ball State as they continue to clear their heads from the week one trouncing by Notre Dame.  The loss of Keith Smith will be a killed for this offense, which now needs to find a new go to guy.  Given that the team is not even sure yet whether Marve is the guy, there are still a lot of question marks in West Lafayette. Prediction: WIN

9 Indiana: After the week off, travels to Western Kentucky.  This has a little of the makings of a trap, but the two weeks to prepare this offense should pay off for Bill Lynch’s boys.  Prediction: WIN

10 Illinois: Illinois hosts Northern Illinois on Saturday, which could cause some problems.  The Illini are still trying to figure out some personnel issues.  They are not built to make it to a bowl, but they could find a way to play their way out of the Big Ten cellar this year. Prediction: WIN

11 Minnesota: Hmmm, loss to South Dakota, and not they play USC.  This story is getting worse all the time for Tim Brewster.  Someone suggested that the ball coach change his Twitter handle from playforBrew to prayforBrew. Brewster’s boys will be playing for his job this year, but not in this game. Prediction: LOSS

X Nebraska: Gets their first challenge of the year against Jake Locker and Washington on Saturday, which should be a highly entertaining game.  Both QBs are very proficient at running their offense.  In a weekend without many “must see” games, this one meets the criteria in my book. Prediction: WIN