Game Preview: Northwestern (5-2) (1-2) at Indiana (4-3) (0-3)

Saturday, October 30, 2010 11:00 CST (Big Ten Network)

Photo Credit: iub.edu

Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana

Northwestern is coming off a heartbreaking loss, but also its best performance of the season.  The team enters tomorrow’s game with a great deal of confidence after playing so well against one of the best teams in the nation.  IU is coming off a humbling 43-13 loss to Illinois, which left the team looking for answers.  Northwestern is 43-34-1 all time against Indiana, including 8-3 in the Expect Victory Era.  The only losses came in 1999, 2001, and 2008 – all in Bloomington.  Both teams bring very talented quarterbacks to the game; but NU has a major advantage on the defensive side of the ball.  IU is not known for packing their stadium, so there could be a very low attendance figure tomorrow.  If NU sends a contingent the size of what went to Nashville, it could be a pretty vocal group.

Injury Report: Jacob Schmidt is listed as questionable with the ankle injury that took him out of the MSU game last week.  He was still listed as the starter on the two-deep released on Tuesday.  But all signs point to Trumpy and Adonis Smith getting most of the carries again. 

Indiana has had a rash of injuries, maybe not as prominent as Purdue, but probably more devastating.  First, Darius Willis (RB) was injured a few weeks back and is out for the season.  Willis took over the first quarter of the IU-NU game last year on the way to opening up a 28-3 lead.  Nick Turner (RB) is one of the backs seeing time in his absence but is questionable with a concussion that forced him to sit out the Illinois game.  The Hoosiers will be down to their third-string right tackle after the Knee injury to Josh Hager (OT), who is now out for the season.  Junior DB Lenyatta Kiles is questionable with a groin injury.  TE Max Desmond is out with a knee injury.  Thanks to College Injury Report.com for the injury report.

Weather Report: Beautiful day for fall football.  High of 57, with just a light wind. Keep up to date with Weather.com

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Dan Persa: MSU began to unlock the mystery of Dan Persa in the fourth quarter last week – and how teams are able to copy this defense, and more importantly how NU responds, will be the key to the rest of NU’s season.  After Persa had a pretty good first three quarters (16-22), MSU switched to a zero down-lineman set, instead lining up five blitzing linebackers and six DBs.  The pressure coming from all angles took the Cats by surprise and on the last three drives, the Cats had no answer.  Teams cannot run this set when the run is a possibility, because the O-Line would steamroll a bunch of linebackers starting from a standing position.  So getting the lead and keeping it will help to avoid this fate.  Also, keeping a back in the backfield to both threaten the run, and to help block, will keep this set at bay as well.  Moreso, if Persa can audible into a QB draw even when there are five wide, he could break a huge run against this set.  I would expect IU to try to employ this against Persa at least a few times, but I also think that NU will have made its adjustments as well.

Tyler Replogle (LB): This senior co-captain is making his 18^th career start for the Hoosiers, which is second only to his brother, Adam, an IU defensive lineman.  So the defense is pretty inexperienced.  But Replogle can be a force on the strong side.  He leads the team with 50 tackles but has no sacks.  He may be called upon to pick up Dunsmore on occasion, and does have one pick on the season.  More than anything Tyler is going to need to be a leader of a defense that has a lot of seniors (nine starting) but not a lot of experience.

Adonis Smith: The Adonis Smith Era began in Evanston last week, as this freshman back made good headway against a stingy MSU run defense.  IU is pretty strong against the run as well, statistically.  But Smith’s size and speed should enable him to make some headway.  Fitz has played pretty close to the cuff on how he intends to use his back this Saturday.  But it is hard to believe that Smith is not going to see at least the carries that he saw last week, if not more.

In the trenches: Indiana has two rather short defensive ends (Darius Johnson 6’0” and Terrance Thomas 6’1”), which should play a major advantage against NU’s rather large tackles.  But the interior line of Indiana is pretty large and powerful and has contributed to IU’s success against the run.  IU only has eight sacks so far this season, and that includes some pretty weak non-conference opponents.  That should be a nice reprieve for an NU offensive line that has been abused the last two games.

Overall impression: NU has scored first in all seven of its games.  The offense certainly operates better when it can control the tempo and play calling, as opposed to when game situations force them to throw.  IU’s defense has given up 34 points or more in each of the last four games, including Arkansas State.  NU, for once, has an experience edge on offense and should be able to use that to its advantage.

When Indiana has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Ben Chappell (QB): Chappell is IU’s all everything quarterback, who is approaching all-time team records in any number of categories.  He is smart and accurate and is fourth in the country in passing yards per game.  If he can channel his inner Kirk Cousins, he will be a nightmare for an NU secondary that got absolutely wasted by the MSU receivers last week.  Chappell will need to have a big game in order for IU to win, but if the IU line can give him time to throw, there is no reason to think that he will not have a big game.

Bryce McNaul: McNaul had a great game against MSU last week, recording 10 tackles and career highs in basically everything else.  Bryce forced the fumble which was MSU’s only turnover of the game.  He missed a lot of time in the first half of the season because of injury, but is really coming on as a playmaker for the defense.  He will need to be responsible for putting a lot of the pressure on Chappell, as well as shutting down the already sputtering IU running game.

Tandon Doss (WR): Every good quarterback needs a stud receiver and Tandon Doss is that guy.  Doss leads the nation in all-purpose-yards per game, which includes his yards as a very dangerous kick and punt returner.  NU will be well-suited to put Jordan Mabin on Doss regardless of where he lines up, as this guy has the ability to absolutely school Vaughn and Bolden.  Doss keeps me up at night.

In the trenches: NU somehow managed to contain the MSU rushing attack, which is primarily the reason that the Cats stayed in the game so long.  IU’s offensive line is a good size, not overly impressive, but has only given up seven sacks this year.  Chappell is shifty, but not a running quarterback.  So NU should be able to get some pressure on him with some blitzes.  But I would not expect the IU running game to be a factor.

Overall Impression: NU goes back to defending the spread offense which has given them fits this year.  Chappell will need to have a great game, however, and avoid costly turnovers.  IU will throw the ball A LOT – I would expect 50-60 throws.  So the NU secondary better eat its breakfast; this could be a shootout.

Intangibles: I would be remiss if I did not talk about the return game here.  As mentioned, Tandon Doss is one of the most dangerous in the nation and could break one at any time.  NU has announced that Venric Mark has earned the starting job (officially this time) as both kick and punt returner.  While a track meet between these two would be exciting, it is hardly what NU wants out of this game.  But I would not be surprised if one or both of them found themselves in the end zone on a special teams touchdown.

Bottom Line: Persa scores another large game this week as he will have more time to pass and an inexperienced secondary to pick apart.  Adonis Smith, Venric Mark, T.J. Jones, and Rashad Lawrence are all picking up the offense at just the right time as they should be able to flash their speed against a defense that will be a step slower than they have seen in the last few weeks.  Indiana will score some points, but the lack of a legitimate rushing threat will be their un-doing.

Cats win 37-21.

Go Cats! 

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

News and Notes and Big Ten Wednesday

A funny thing happened on the way to Bloomington.  For the first time in recent memory, NU remained relevant on a national stage following a regular season loss.  Despite being unranked before the game, NU continued to receive points in all of the polls, and the “Bowl Projections” remained relatively unchanged. 

This is significantly different treatment than NU has received in recent years.  For instance, after NU dropped its 2008 match to Indiana, they were persona non grata, before roaring back to a 9-3 record.  Last year, after losing a game to Penn State in a marquise time slot, the Cats were ignored by the pollsters at 5-4, before knocking off Iowa and Wisconsin on the way to an 8-4 record and a New Years Day appearance.

This is a sign that NU is beginning, slowly, albeit, to make some headway in the national mindset.  Football pundits looked at the Michigan State game and said, wow, had NU hung on to that game, they would have been a legitimate player in the Big Ten Title race.  And while the game ended in a loss, the Cats performance impressed enough people to keep the Cats on the radar for a few more weeks.  If the Cats are 7-2 going into Iowa, the media will be glad that they stuck with NU.

No news is good news during the week, as the Cats remain relatively injury free.  Given the track record of past NU teams, the ability to stay healthy has been remarkable and is a credit to the team’s strength and conditioning. 

The only actual news this week was the verbal commitment of 2012 recruit Malin Jones.  Jones, a 6’1” 195 lb. tailback, is a junior at Joliet Catholic. According to recruiting guru Tom Lemming, Jones will be "one of the best players in the Midwest next year."  In nine games this season, Jones has rushed for 861 yards and nine touchdowns (11.3 ypc!), while sharing carries with Illinois commit Josh Ferguson.  Lemming also says that this is a sign that NU is maturing as a program.  Jones apparently left Ryan Field Saturday and knew that his decision was made.  Now Fitz just needs to build a wall around him for the next 18 months and protect him from other schools as Malin’s stock will inevitably continue to rise.  Welcome to the Cats Malin!

Jones continues the trend of young, fast, skill position players that have seen the opportunity to play a role in Fitz’s system.  Skip Myslenski’s recent piece on NUSports.com discusses the roles that Adonis Smith and Venric Mark play on the team.  It discusses how Fitz continues to take his time to bring these two, along with fellow true frosh Rashad Lawrence, into the offense.  This allows them to adjust to the speed of the game as well as absorb NU’s playbook pieces at a time.  Fitz strayed away from playing true freshmen in his first four years, but as he said in a recent press conference about Smith, he is going to use every bullet he has available.  This has to be a key tool in recruiting as well, as Fitz can show that he will not hesitate to give a kid four years of real playing time.

Adonis Smith could have ruffled some feathers with his recent reference to “my offense” after the MSU game.  But Fitz seems to like the fact that Adonis has taken ownership of the team, as seen in this Trib piece.  We also learned that he calls Venric Mark “V”, which is awesome, and that he can still have a sense of humor after a loss.  And unlike his 30,000 offensive coordinators, Fitz’s public persona is remarkably unconcerned about the 24 sacks surrendered by NU.  I am all for building up your team in the public eye, but I just hope that Fitz is coming down a little harder on the offensive line than he appears to be.  NU is among the worst in the country in allowing sacks and is one of only two teams in the bottom 25 in sacks with 5 wins (the other is Alabama, not bad company). 

Like many other things (penalties, drops, etc.), the unfortunate timing of the sacks has been the largest issue.  The third down sack on Persa on the Cats final scoring drive (Demos kicked a field goal to go up 27-21) could not have come at a worse time as a first down would have continued to salt the clock and potentially set up a touchdown.  The O-Line has improved the running game; hopefully they can improve the pass protection as well.  This Daily Herald article also points to the fact that Justan Vaughn remains the starter, despite being burned in the first half and benched for the entire second half.

Tina Akouris addresses both of these issues in her article on the run offense and the pass defense.  The most bizarre part of Saturday was that it was almost as if the Cats traded their pass defense for an improved running game, as each element saw a drastic deviation from the first half of the season – in opposite directions.  The pass defense can be attributed, somewhat, to the fact that Cousins played one of the best games of his career and was the best QB the Cats have faced in 2010.  But then, maybe the best game of his career was the result of the poor pass defense – it is a chicken-egg thing.

Overall, the Cats were in a foul mood, but confident after the loss.  And this is the sentiment of most Cat fans.  No one is happy with Saturday’s result, but it is hard to be discouraged about the rest of the season.  I still think that the Cats will finish 8-4 and I am even more confident about the ability to play with Iowa and Wisconsin.

But as the Daily Northwestern aptly stated the Cats need to learn to finish.   Most of the Cats talked about the 55 or 58 minutes of the game that the Cats won against MSU, and this is becoming a trend.  Vandy scored late and were a two-point conversion from tying the game.  CMU added some garbage points, but nevertheless, attempted an onside kick that would have given them a chance to win.  Purdue’s offense was basically non-existent until a perfectly executed 14-play fourth quarter drive ripped the Cats apart.  The Cats will need to play 60 minutes strong in order to finish the season in a warm climate.

Big Ten Power Rankings

1 Michigan State: Tried and tested, Sparty is one win away from being in really good shape.

2 Wisconsin: Left for dead, Wisconsin has won two huge games and is now waiting for Sparty to stumble to, at least, take a co-Championship.

3 Ohio State: Will still be tested at Iowa, but is really in the best shape to steal the Rose Bowl bid from MSU.

4 Iowa: Has the toughest remaining schedule, but also the most opportunities to prove themselves.

5 Northwestern: Proved that they belong in this spot; will have its chances to move up, but in the end, probably ends up here.

6 Michigan: Seems like months since they have played and years since Denard Robinson was a Heisman candidate.  Needs to win against PSU to stay relevant.

7 Purdue: Which one was the aberration, the win at NU or the loss to OSU?  Can still play upset against Sparty.

8 Illinois: Quietly getting itself into bowl contention.  Everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop, but the Wrigley Field game may mean something for both Illinois schools.

9 Penn State: Got a nice pick-me-up against Minnesota, but still has only scored two touchdowns against teams with a pulse.

10 Indiana: Remember what I said in August about not drinking the Cool Aid?  Of course I may regret that statement on Saturday night – the offense is still a time bomb.

11 Minnesota: The death march continues…

Go Cats! 

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com/

Michigan State; the Aftermath

There is a reason that I did not post my typical Sunday Morning Superback yesterday morning.  I could blame the travel back from Chicago, which always puts a nice 6 ½ hour crimp in the day.  I could blame the fact that I was visiting friends and did not want to spend that much time lost in my thoughts and my pain.  I could blame sleeping in, or the fact that my laptop is on the fritz.  All of which are true.

The fact is that it has taken me this long to determine a theme for this piece.  The Cats played their best game of the year against the best team on their schedule, but in the end a turnover, a special teams gaff, and a penalty continued to be the shortcomings of a team on the brink.  The running game played great, but Persa had his worst game passing and could not lead the necessary drive at the end.  Demos redeemed himself, and we saw great play out of the freshmen.  But Jacob Schmidt, Jordan Mabin, and Al Netter made awful mistakes. 

I have read a dozen articles about this game.  Many of them point to the fake punt as the key play of the game.  Others point to Cousin’s leadership in leading his team on fourth quarter scoring drives.  Most of them admire Persa’s gritty play during the game, yet fault his inability to make the pass in the clutch. 

But there was one headline that I read that truly sums up the game.  Simple; to the point; and appropriate for the occasion.

Northwestern Blows 17-Point Lead to MSU

And really, that is all you need to know.  This is not about a fake punt; it is not about the wind; it is not about a personal four penalty, or a fumble on the goal line.  It is about the inability of a team to close out a three-score lead against a better team.  A complete team fail from the 6:00 mark of the second quarter until Persa through his fatal pick.

Now, this is not to say that Cat fans did not witness some great things in that span.  NU had some great answers and played inspired football.  But the last 36 minutes of the game was a slow erosion of everything that the first 24 minutes had built up.  And in the end, the game was just eight minutes too long.

The feeling of this game brings me back to a trio of games in the 2007 season.  NU had fourth quarter leads against Michigan, Purdue, and Iowa – before losing by double digits to each one of them.  At the time, NU and Fitz were struggling to find an identity and were muddling through a 6-6 season.  Each of these games was an opportunity to show that the Cats belong in the middle of the conference fray – but that they were not quite there yet.

On Saturday, the Cats had another opportunity to make a major statement it the conference.  By knocking off Sparty, NU could legitimately make a run at the Big Ten Title.  It could show the nation that it was not just good for a few upsets now and then, but that it could stand toe to toe and beat some of the best talent in the country.  But the fourth quarter came, and once again, we found that the Cats are not quite there yet.

But as heartbreaking as this game was, there is great hope.  Rather than dwelling on the negatives, there are a plethora of building blocks set in this game.  The Cats are still in a position to have a special season, if they can pick their heads up and play their game for the next month.  Here is what to be hopeful about, and what still needs work.

Dan Persa had, statistically, his worst game of the year.  But a look inside the numbers shows that for the first three and a half quarters, he played strong, smart, and efficiently.  With 8:30 to go in the game, MSU punted the ball out of bounds at the 50.  NU was up 27-21.  Persa, at that point was 16-22 for 180 yards and no picks; along with 81 positive yards rushing (albeit seven sacks against that).  Everyone knew that with the wind at their backs, the Cats needed about 20 yards to really seal the game.  But MSU brought in a 0-5-6 defense on passing downs and dared the Cats to throw.  From then on, Persa was 2 for 7 for 7 yards and a pick.  The improved rushing game will help, but MSU gave the league a blueprint on how to stop the Cats on passing downs.  McCall and Persa will need to respond.  Dan is still the nation’s most accurate passer, but the noose around him is tightening.  On the other hand, his runs were downright amazing.  Persa wanted this game, badly.  But when he is the only person to find the end zone in the last two games, it is not hard to see why the Cats are 0-2 in that stretch.

Adonis Smith and the running game was a pleasant surprise.  For two weeks, NU coaches, players, media, and fans were in an eternal gridlock about the run-pass ratio.  In the end, Coach Fitz went with a pretty even mix (once you account for sacks as pass plays, but counted as runs) and completely ignored his 30,000 offensive coordinators.  Trumpy went 10 for 50; Smith went 10 for 44 and was really the star of the show.  Mark took an end around for 29 yards, which, sadly, was the longest NU run since 2008.  Again, if you remove Persa’s sacks, the Cats averaged 4.4 yards per carry, or 1.2 more than the season average.  The Cats controlled the line when they were running the ball, against a very stingy run defense.  If this is a sign of things to come, there should be a lot of excitement about the run game.  But it needed to stay consistent down the stretch.  In the critical drive mentioned above, the Cats ran for one yard on first down, and then did not run again all game.  Balance only works when you stay consistent with it.  But there are a lot of things to build on.  Including a 2012 recruit, who committed to the Cats after leaving Ryan Field Saturday. Welcome Malin Jones to the Wildcat Family.

Freshman offensive weapons, however, were the most impressive and most promising aspect of this game.  Smith and Mark were mentioned above.  In addition to his long run, he singlehandedly increased the Cats punt return average from 4.9 yards to 7.0 yards per return.  Rashad Lawrence also had a four catch game, for 67 yards.  These are the building blocks for the Cats future – and that is very exciting.

The Offensive Line had their hands full with the Michigan State defensive front.  But for the most part, they performed admirably.   No one would have expected NU to have so much success running the ball.  Some of that was the change of pace created by Adonis.  But the O-Line was beating Sparty off the ball all game long.  Problem was, the opposite occurred on passing downs, as Dan was constantly scrambling, throwing on the run, and in the end, eating turf.  It really is amazing that he had the stats that he had.  In the end, the O-Line’s inability to give Persa enough time to throw, and their inability to keep their hands out of players face masks, put a halt to the Cats’ offensive game plan.

The Run Defense, for all of the props given to the Cats’ running game, the run defense really stole the show, at least for most of the game.  Through three quarters, MSU had only 69 yards rushing, 22 of which was on the end around by Fowler.  NU owned the line of scrimmage, and should be commended.  It is clear that the front four plays much better against a pro-style offense.  Which explains the success against Iowa and Wisconsin in previous years.

The Pass Defense.  MSU was 11-15 for 144 yards passing in the fourth quarter.  This is really the only stat you need to know.  This was a pass defense that played “bend-but-don’t-break” ball all season.  Well, in the final stanza Saturday, they broke.  They had held Cousins to a pedestrian 19-29 for 208 yards through three quarters, but made him look like Joe Montana in the end.  Stanzi and Tolzien will be licking their chops if this crew does not improve, not to mention Ben Chappel next week.

Special Teams.  The much maligned unit last week came through this week.  Demos was perfect, including a nice kick into a driving wind in quarter #2.  The punt and kickoff teams were effective, both kicking and returning.  And with the exception of some problems with the wind, had no mishaps.  A nice improvement.

But in the end, this game will be remembered for the fake punt.  The national media, many of whom clearly did not see the game, portrayed this as the biggest play of the game.  And not to down play its importance, but it was with 14 minutes left (so hardly critical), the Cats came right back and scored (so hardly a backbreaker), and MSU went three-and-out on the next drive (so the momentum shift was minimal).  Would NU have won the game were it not for the fake punt.  No one knows.  But would anyone be talking about the 4^th and 1 that MSU converted with 14 minutes left had they just run the ball instead?  Unlikely.

Instead, the true legacy of this game was the inability for NU to continue to move the ball.  The three and out possession at midfield will be remembered by this team for a long time as the one that got away.

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com

www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt

http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Game Preview: #8 Michigan State (7-0) (3-0) at Northwestern (5-1) (1-1)

Saturday, October 23, 2010 11:00 CST

Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois

Photo credit: hailtopurple.com

Northwestern spent its bye week recovering from its first loss of the season and preparing for this big game against a ranked Michigan State team, who may be playing with more confidence than anyone in the country right now.  This is the 51^st meeting between the two schools.  Michigan State leads the overall series 34-16 and has won six of eleven during the Expect Victory Era.  Michigan State is 16-10 in Evanston and has not lost in Evanston since 2001.

Northwestern and Michigan State have produced some classic battles over the past 15 years, but has also produced some classic blowouts. 

·         1997 NU defeats ranked MSU team on Anwawn Jones’ blocked FG; the Cats beat Nick Saban.

·         2001 NU beats MSU 27-26 in a wild finish after a fairly boring first 55 minutes; Victory Right II sets up the game winning FG.

·         2006 MSU makes largest comeback in NCAA Division I history, 35 points, to win 41-38.

·         2007 NU wins a shootout in East Lansing, 48-41.

Of the other seven matchups, none have been within 10 points, and four have been decided by more than 20.

Of the more intriguing matchups is NU’s passing game against the Spartan defense.  Dan Persa ranks fourth in the nation in passing efficiency; Sparty is 2^nd in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense, 17^th in the nation.

Injury Report: The injury sheet is pretty clean for both teams.  Vince Brown was cleared to play yesterday after practicing every day since Tuesday.  For MSU, QB Kirk Cousins had tweaked his ankle against Illinois, but it appears that it will not keep him from playing.  CB Chris Rucker continues to be held out by a team-imposed suspension for his “violation of team rules.”  It has not yet been announced whether he will play Saturday.

Weather Report: Fans, this is not looking good.  The big storm hitting Texas this morning is moving its way up to Chicago and looks like it will hit, well, at 11:00 CST tomorrow.  60% chance of T-Showers, high of 66.  Bring your poncho. Check Weather.com for details.

When Northwestern has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Photo credit: sbnation.com

Dan Persa: Persa’s performances have evolved from the shocking to the expected.  In his last two games, he completed 75% of his passes and threw one interception; passing for 300+ yards in both games.  Yet it was viewed as a “down” performance for both. Maybe perhaps because he was not quite as sharp against the faster Big Ten defenses.  Well he will need to be sharp tomorrow as the Spartans bring a nasty defense.  Up the middle they are very strong with highly-talented, veteran players.  But if there is a weakness on the MSU defense, it is the corners.  If Rucker does not play, Darqueze Dennard (true Frosh) and Johnny Adams (RS Soph) will have to cover NU’s talented receivers.  And the backups in the secondary are just as young.  NU’s multi receiver sets may be able to break some explosive plays against this defense….



Photo credit: rivals.com



Greg Jones (LB): Unless Greg Jones has something to say about it.  Jones is a monster of a linebacker who is probably the best defensive player in the Big Ten along with Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan.  Jones had a season high 14 tackles against run-happy Illinois last week.  But he only has one sack on the season, and four other tackles for loss.  Whether this is the result of a scheme change by MSU, or blocking assignments by offenses is unknown.  But NU will need to keep this guy out of the backfield if it wants to succeed.  Jones does a nice job dropping back into coverage and may see some time covering Drake Dunsmore.  He will be a terror that NU will have to contain, somehow.

Photo credit: bigtennetwork.com

Jeremy Ebert: Ebert is very quietly having an All-Conference season (I think I led with that two weeks ago, sue me).  He leads the conference in receiving yards and is 13^th in the nation in yards per game.  His 35 receptions is second in the conference to go along with his five touchdowns.  MSU is going to need to gameplan around Ebert, which should open up some lanes for his teammates.  If Ebert gets on an island against Dennard, it could be two thumbs up all day.

In the trenches: MSU, like Northwestern, rotates in six players regularly to make up its defensive front four.  Its size and speed should be able to plug up running lanes against an NU rushing attack (is that really the right word) that has well-documented struggles.  MSU only has ten sacks through seven games.  NU’s Offensive line had trouble keeping Purdue Pete out of the backfield, which caused problems for Dan Persa, this will need to improve, and should, against a defense that will probably attack a little less.

Overall impression: If the offensive line can give Persa time to throw, NU’s offense can be very effective against a thin MSU secondary.  MSU has only seen a truly effective passing game against Notre Dame, and did not do much to be able to stop that in keys points in the game.  NU’s running game will continue to struggle, but the presence of the running back will keep Greg Jones and fellow linebacker Eric Gordon honest, which should be all Persa needs.  The weather will really play a role in NU’s ability to move the ball, but a wet field generally favors route-running receivers as long as Persa can keep the ball dry enough to throw.

When Michigan State has the Ball:

Players to watch…

Photo credit: bleacherreport.com

Kirk Cousins (QB): Cousins is still, somehow, only a Junior.  He runs a solid pro-style offense, which is really the first time this NU defense has seen such a set.  Cousins has 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, completing about 2/3 of his passes.  He is well known for his leadership and his ability to spread the ball around to his weapons.  He has big targets in Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham, who can test the NU secondary, and they will.  Cousins has a bit of a tweaked ankle, which may affect his mobility especially on the wet turf.  NU could score an early advantage by putting some pressure on Cousins and forcing some ill-advised throws.  He is, at times, interception prone.



Photo credit: nusports.com

Nate Williams: Williams has had a fairly quiet first half of the season, but I feel like he is finally ready to break out.  He will be needed to stop the MSU running attack as Quentin Davie cannot do it himself.  If the D-Line is being pushed off the ball, as it has in the last two weeks, Williams and the LBs will need to be patient and find the holes to stop the runners – as opposed to being caught in the mass of purple and green jerseys.  Williams should also be called upon to play some coverage against TE Charlie Gantt.

Photo credit: fantake.com

Edwin Baker and Le’veon Bell (RBs): MSUs two-headed monster at running back is as good of a tandem will see all year, and that includes Wisconsin.  Both are young, fast, and capable of busting the big run.  NU will have to be true to its schemes and contain these two guys.  Otherwise, Kirk Cousins will not even need to throw the ball.

In the trenches: NU’s front four was manhandled Minnesota, giving up huge runs on first and second downs.  Most of the game against Purdue, however, it appeared to improve, giving up the two big runs and a few scrambles – but otherwise shutting down the running game.  For NU to have a chance to win, the front four need to continue to improve and get off the ball fast.  If they spend the majority of the game being pushed backwards, it is going to a long wet afternoon.

Overall Impression: NU’s defense has not faced a pro-style offense all season, and quite frankly, it is built better to stop it.  The Linebackers are still the best talent on this defense and the defense is better as whole when there are more LBs on the field.  The secondary will get beat by a few play action plays, but as long as they do not lead to some big touchdowns, this game should stay close.  MSU offense can be a little inconsistent, but can score in bunches as Illinois and Michigan saw in the last two weeks.  NU will take its punches, but will have to counter in order to be in this game.

Intangibles: Where do I begin?  How about the most obvious.  Michigan State fans have been talking for two weeks that if they beat Iowa (October 30) they are going to the Rose Bowl.  This game is an afterthought to the fan base.  The key will be whether the players have bought into their own hype or whether the coaching staff has kept them grounded.  Dantonio’s efforts to coach from the field may help that.

NU has had two weeks to prepare for this game and is 10-1 after its last 11 losses (8-0 after last 8 Big Ten losses).  Fitz should have the team focused and hopefully will avoid the comedy of errors that have plagued the team over the last three weeks.  Ara Parseghian should be able to give an emotional boost, even if the players do not know who he is.  Homecoming game – this will be a fun one.

Bottom Line: As I begin to write this paragraph, I am still not certain how it will end.  NU is becoming the sexy pick for the upset of the week nationally; and that makes me uncomfortable.  From a talent standpoint, NU is on par with MSU.  But from a confidence standpoint, MSU is flying sky high, while NU has suffered through penalties, mental mistakes, turnovers, and special teams’ mishaps – all of which will be magnified by the poor weather.  NU will need to force a turnover or two, preferably early to get their heads on strait.  NU has played in 22 consecutive game where it has held a lead or been tied in the fourth quarter, sadly, I think that the streak ends tomorrow.  The game remains close, but NU is unable to get the drive it needs in the fourth.

Cats lose 21-24.

Go Cats!  Prove me wrong.

johnknublog@gmail.com
www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt
http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

Homecoming Week News & Notes

There is a lot of news, notes and stories to get to today as we lead into the big Homecoming matchup against #8 Michigan State.  So I will jump right into it.

First off, this is an extremely important week for the Cats and a huge game for Fitz as a coach.  And the Cats are in a great position.  For one thing, a loss (unless it is a blowout loss) would be the expected result in most minds, including the media and recruits.  A loss alone would not set the program back any, and while it makes the next two weeks against Indiana and Penn State mission critical, would not have any major impact on the master plan.

But a win would give instant credibility to the 2010 Cats.  Regardless of your personal opinion on the 2010 Michigan State Spartans, this is a team playing with a lot of pride, confidence, and emotion; and the nation has hitched its trailer to the MSU wagon.  Suddenly, the team would be 6-1 with two very winnable road games ahead.  It would demonstrate Fitz’s ability to flush a disappointing loss and coach a team during a bye week.  The overall impact of a win would be even greater than the Iowa win last year, which most attribute to Stanzi’s injury.

Playing in NU’s favor is the Homecoming game.  NU has had great success in homecoming games over recent years. 

·         2009 – Largest comeback in school history against Indiana

·         2008 – Blowout win against Purdue

·         2007 – Previous largest comeback in school history against Minnesota

·         2004 – Last minute comeback victory over Kyle Orton and Purdue

·         2003 – Solid victory against ranked Wisconsin

·         2001 – Victory against ranked Minnesota

·         1999 – Comeback victory against Iowa in Zak Kustok’s debut

·         1997 – Victory against highly ranked MSU team on last minute blocked field goal

·         1996 – Last minute victory over Illinois

·         1995 – 35-0 beat-down of Wisconsin

Overall, NU is 10-5 in the Expect Victory Era on homecoming, with two of the five losses coming within a touchdown.  And everyone knows about the history of the NU-MSU games going back to 1997, which I will get into more tomorrow.

As a special treat, legendary NU football coach Ara Parseghian will return to Evanston for the first time in decades on Saturday.  He apparently will be an honorary captain, will address the team before the game, and will be recognized in a ceremony along with 60-70 of his former players.  Ara is, of course, best known for his time at Notre Dame and for being portrayed by Exorcist actor Jason Miller in Rudy.  But arguably his best coaching job was his eight years at Northwestern from 1956-1963. 

In 1955, NU was 0-8-1.  In 1962, NU was ranked #1 in the country for the first time since 1936.  The 1962 Playboy All-America team featured two NU players (out of eleven) and Ara as Coach of the Year.  Ara also played tailback alongside former NU great Otto Graham on the 1948 Cleveland Browns AAFC Championship team.  Tina Akouris writes an excellent article on the Odyssey of Ara's career.  Evidently, Ara is quite impressed with this year’s NU squad.

The visit from Ara has only fueled the already hot funeral pyre for the Spartans undefeated season.  While the Cat players are downplaying the significance of the game, it is impossible to avoid the comparisons to last year’s Iowa game.  The game may truly come down to which team has the better mental makeup – can NU live up to its upset-minded fans’ expectations; can Sparty avoid looking ahead to Iowa and its brutally easy November schedule?

Of primary importance in the Cats preparation for Saturday was the bye week.  It could not have come at a better time as the Cats needed the rest to prepare for MSU and to expunge the memories from the Purdue loss.  The Daily reports on the team bonding and the leadership counsel’s preparation for Sparty.

But the Cats quickly got back to work as reported by Skip Myslenski for nusports.com.  I love the attitude of the players on this team.  They are cognizant of their role as the underdog, and the success of NU in the past in that role.  But they have the confidence and true belief that if they win, it will not be an upset, but the result of the better team winning.  The team relishes the idea of controlling its own destiny in the Big Ten race – although they do not exactly hold that position as Purdue still sits as the only zero-loss team who is not remaining on NU’s schedule.

So much has been said the Wildcat running game in the last two weeks; from Lake the Posts calling to completely abandon the run (sorry could not find the specific link) to this rant I sent in an email among friends:

I really hope that ***** wasn't serious about abandoning the run completely, because I would lose a lot of respect for him from a football standpoint.  Even though NU would like to run the ball better, NU needs the quantity of runs to be able to throw.  Even the 0-1 yard gains require the defense to keep 6 people in the box to keep them from becoming 5-7 yard gains, which leaves much more room for the receivers to run around.  It's not as if our poor run offense permits the defense to ignore it.  They still have to guard against it.  The alternative being going 5-wide or 4+TE each play, which allows the defense to drop as many as 8 into coverage.  Having the running back just stand there and forcing the defense to commit at least one guy to preventing Trumpy from turning a 2 yard gain into a long run (as sad as that sounds) is an integral part of the offense.  You also can't just use him as a decoy and only run; say 15% of the time.  The defense is likely to play the odds and give up the 8-12 yard gain every now and then.  It is also nearly impossible to break a long run with 8 guys in coverage because none of them are overplaying or getting blocked at the line of scrimmage.

 I like the balance of the Purdue game actually, 42 runs, 41 passes.  NU has a few run - pass options in the playbook, and some of these are pass plays that broke down into scrambles, but I like the 50-50 balance.  I think that if NU went 50/50 in any of the first five games, the games would have been a lot more lop-sided in our favor.  When NU went 66-33 in the Outback Bowl, NU threw 5 picks.  I don't know that NU would ever want Persa throwing more than 45 times in a game.  But NU still needs to run at least 35-40 times (including scrambles) if NU wants to have any passing lanes to throw into.

But according to the Daily, NU is going to continue to try to maintain balance. I love the quote from Fitz about his 30,000 offensive coordinators begging him to throw more.  Personally, I would like to see more passing on first down and somewhere around a 55/45 pass/run ratio.  This will give us more second and 3-4 yards, which puts the defense on their heels, because they know NU will both run and pass in that situation.  It also keeps the balance at the point where the run can set up an effective passing game.

A few other articles worth reading that I do not have time to write full paragraphs about.  Skip Myslenski writes a nice piece about how the Wildcat Safeties are the Superbacks of the defense.  The Daily makes a great point about how avoiding injuries has been a key this season.   Remember how many injuries NU had sustained last season at this point?

The criticism of the NU special teams has been overdone, so I am not going to dive into that again.  But Demos remains upbeat despite the constant harassment over the past 12 days. Remember fans, he has won three games for NU with last second kicks in the last 19 games, and only lost two.   Demos’ kicking battery make John Henry Pace talked to Tina Akouris about his recent scholarship grant.  

In what may be an effort to help his team remain focused on the Cats and not their game at Iowa, Mark Dantonio hopes to coach from field Saturday.  As much as I hope that this does not give Sparty a kick into high gear, it is really good to see Mark D. back in the game.

Finally, nusports.com has new website design.  I love how “tickets” is the first tab, even before “sports.”  It is these little touches that will make the new marketing campaign really work.

Preview tomorrow…

Go Cats!

johnknublog@gmail.com

www.twitter.com/expectvictoryrt

http://expectvictoryright.blogspot.com

How EVR spent his bye week... (Big Ten Tuesday)

While the Cats were resting up, watching Jackass 3D, and preparing for Michigan State, I was painting my dining room, watching Big Ten football, and being served a painful reminder of my age during a flag football tournament.

But so much was learned about the Big Ten this weekend, that it would be appropriate to begin the week there.  Starting Wednesday, then, EVR will dive back into the Cats preparation for Sparty.

The Big Ten took at step towards taking shape this weekend, and in many ways we have a much better idea of where everyone stands in relation to eachother.  Here is my look at each team, why they are ranked where they are, and why they should not be.

1 Michigan State: Sparty gets the #1 nod as the lone remaining undefeated team in the conference.  They also have the most impressive wins compared to Iowa and Purdue, the other teams without a conference loss.  MSU has played far from consistent football, but they have been the most consistent team out there.  They are playing with confidence and an emotional edge.  If they can beat NU and Iowa in the next two weeks, they have a legitimate shot at an undefeated season.

But MSU does have some chinks in the armor.  The offense is highly inconsistent, and while scoring in bunches (which they do) can have its advantages, there is nothing to brag about when you score three points at home in the first half against Illinois.   The defense is nothing short of opportunistic, but they can be beaten by a competent passing attack (say... of Northwestern?).

2 Wisconsin: Wisconsin beat Tressel at his own game Saturday night, getting a lead and then maintaining it with conservative and boring football.  But this is not a boring team, it is a solid Big Ten team and has played one of the most rigorous schedules thus far.  John Clay and the running game will continue to be a factor any time the Badgers have the lead in a game.  The defense is spotty but generally solid and there will not be any shootouts against inferior opponents.  Wisconsin also should only be tested by Iowa and Northwestern down the stretch.

But Wisconsin lacks the flash necessary to stay in this spot.  The quick start against OSU put the score at 14-0 before many people had tuned into the game.  They cannot count on the fast start in their remaining big games, or else Michigan State will happen all over again.  The defense played well against Ohio State, but Pryor was not on his game.  Stanzi and Persa could open up big games against Big Red.

3 Ohio State: Ohio State is still the premier team in the conference and still has the opportunity to win 10 games.  With so many games among the top of the conference remaining, Ohio State could very easily sneak back up into the top spot -- and even a BCS at large bid (which is good for everyone).  Ohio State's defense clamped down around Wisconsin after the early surge and gave the offense every opportunity to win the game.  The offense can be flashy at times, but they are best when running good ol' Tressel-ball.

But OSU cannot have the mental lapses that cause them to get down early to a team like Wisconsin.  The offense is not built for a large comeback against a good team.  It is beginning to look like Pryor may never develop into the elite product that everyone had hoped (and that is OK, he is still very good).  The defense is not as good as it has been in the past, although is still very strong.  OSU still has to visit Iowa before finishing with Michigan.  But first needs to figure out the riddle of Purdue.

4 Iowa: Iowa has the table set for them this season with MSU, Wisconsin, and OSU all at home.  Iowa's defense is filled with NFL-level talent and the offense really clicked last week against Michigan.  While the conference is a little heavier at the top, this Iowa team may actually be better than the 2009 product, which of course went 10-2 and won the Orange Bowl.  The fact that Iowa still has to face all three of the above is the only reason it is ranked below them.

But the defense, for all the talent, has really struggled this season.  Even with Denard Robinson out of the game, Iowa could not keep Michigan out of the end zone.  The special teams have had abysmal problems, as evidenced by the loss to Arizona.  In addition to the Big three above, Iowa has to go to Evanston, and the Cats have cause Iowa major headaches over the past five years.  Iowa has a tough road to hoe, and may falter because of the issues on defense.

5 Northwestern: Surprised? Probably, but this is consistent with the pollsters and, really, NU has the best resume of any of the second tier teams in the conference.  But right now there is a big chasm between NU and Iowa.  NU can begin their efforts to close that gap this weekend, but they still need to play Iowa and at Wisconsin to finish the season.  Dan Persa looks like he could win every game on his own.  Too many mental errors on every side of the ball are keeping this team from moving to the upper level.

But the Cats have not beaten any teams of substance yet.  While both sides of the ball have looked impressive at times, neither has looked like a team that could knock off either of the big four yet.  The linemen need to be more of a force as they have been completely pushed around by both Minnesota and Purdue.  This is a season that could go very bad very quickly if they are not careful.

6 Michigan: Big Blue is coming off of two high-profile losses to teams that they had no business beating.  And honestly, if they played Northwestern 10 times on a neutral field, they would probably split.  But Michigan is 6th because they belong in the middle.  They have one of the most explosive offenses (who knew Forcier would move the ball better than Robinson against Iowa) but one of the worst defenses.  They started 5-0, but may have a hard time finishing above 7-5.  They are Even Steven.

But Michigan's defense is so bad.  Against Notre Dame, UMass, and Indiana they were opportunistic and pulled out the wins.  But their luck may have run out.  Michigan is ranked here now because this is where they deserve to be based on their record so far, but do not be surprised if they fall away as the season progresses.

7 Purdue: Like it or not, Purdue has been one of the nicer stories of the middle part of the season.  For all of the injuries they have had, their team has stepped up and won some nice games for them.   And why does this surprise anyone?  Purdue's defense was expected to be one of its strongest units in years and Ryan Kerrigan may be the best defensive end in the conference.  Purdue's offensive line is a powerful bunch who can move weaker defenses off the ball.  And the Purdue offense has always been accused of being a "system" offensive scheme -- so why should we be shocked when the backups have success?

But the offense is way too one-dimensional to have any long-term success in the Big Ten.  When NU was unable to stack the box successfully, expect OSU to completely shut down the Purdue running game and force Henry to throw.  Purdue will compete with Michigan and Illinois for slotting in the final Bowl game analysis.  But with only four wins, Purdue has some work to do.

8 Illinois: The Illinois love-fest that began after the Penn State win ended abruptly at the beginning of the second half against Sparty.  And Illinois is a nice looking team, but does not have the talent, or the coaching, to compete on any real level in the conference.  With that said, the defense is a strength at times, and the running game paces a nice, ball control offense.  This team may be good enough to save Zook's job; which depending on who you ask may be a really good thing for the rest of the Big Ten.

But the Illini are way too one-dimensional on offense to succeed in the Big Ten this year.  Even when down by 10 against Michigan State, Illinois played very close to the cuff and never opened up the playbook.  Maybe Zook has great things in mind for his young QB; and maybe he wants to keep the training wheels on this year.  But these rankings are for 2010, not 2012.

9 Penn State: Wow did these guys get irrelevant fast.  After the brutal loss to Illinois and the bye week, there has not been a peep about Happy Valley in almost two weeks.  It is hard to say anything good about this team.  If you take out Youngstown State (FCS), Penn State has scored a grand total of five touchdowns in five games -- three of which were against Kent State.  The true freshman quarterback is playing like a true freshman -- and sadly (depending on your point of view), Joe Pa will likely not be the coach long enough to see him mature.

But this is a team with a lot of heart; and a team that will dive in front of a train for their coach.  Penn State may limp its way through the season, but if Joe Pa is really ready to call it quits, try announcing it before the MSU game and see his players rise to the occasion.

10 Indiana: I went on record in the preseason saying that I was not drinking the IU Cool-Aid.  Here is the thing, if you want to schedule bad teams in order to get bowl eligible, fine.  But you still need to be good enough to win two more games, something that I am not sure that Indiana can do right now.  The performance against Michigan was a nice effort -- and there will be a few chances to win still on the schedule.  But IU fans who were holding off making their holiday plans should go ahead and call their travel agent, because this team is not going bowling.

But Ben Chappell is having a very good season and putting up some strong numbers.  Even if he does not captivate you with his blazing speed, it is hard to argue with the results.  If he can get some games where his defense comes to play, he might have some chances to pick up a few unexpected wins.  Losing Darius Willis for the season will really hurt this team.

11 Minnesota: There may not be a worse-off team in a BCS conference than the Golden Gophers right now.  Firing your coach this early in the season is not common and suggests that they will make a play for one of the high-profile coaches without a current job (Mike Leach anyone?).  The seniors no longer have anything to play for.  And their fullbacks and tight ends might as well get out their transfer papers if Leach is coming to town.  This is looking like a 1-11 season after two consecutive bowl appearances.

But -- yeah I have nothing good to say.

Go Cats!