This is going to need to be a very abbreviated post as my holiday family time has controlled my last few days.
Northwestern has had a lot of success against Wisconsin in recent years; winning of the last three and four of the last six. The problem is that Wisconsin knows this and the press this week has been pumping the Badgers up for their need to avoid the upset.
Wisconsin's offense is too proficient, and although I think that the Cat defense will play better than it did last week, the Badgers will be able to score. Hankwitz will have the D on point to play his former employer -- and the Cat run defense is much better at guarding the run against a pro-style offense.
But the offense will not be able to keep the defense off the field. With Watkins at QB and Smith starting at tailback, the offense will make some drives, but not enough.
Would it shock me if the Cats were able to keep this close? No. But this is a special Wisconsin team. I truly feel that this is a Badger team capable of beating Auburn or Oregon. It is on a different level than Northwestern this year -- and they will prove it.
Badgers win 44-17.
Go Cats! Prove me wrong.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Wrigley Game: The Aftermath
There is a lot to get to today as I squeeze in three days of work and this blog between a trip to Chicago and traveling for the holiday – so I will get right to it.
First off, I think I speak for the majority of NU fans (and Illini fans, obviously) when I say that I had an absolute blast on Saturday. Regardless of the fingerpointing, the national publicity, the brutal run defense, etc., from a fan standpoint, this was a complete success. Whether this truly was once in a lifetime, or whether this becomes the stepping stone for future events, it is certainly memorable for all who attended.
I sat behind a dad who had four young boys with him. They were all old enough to understand football and will certainly always remember this moment. They could go to dozens of Cubs games during their childhood. They will always remember the NU-Wrigley Game.
The game, itself, was memorable for a number of reasons. The first quarter was absolutely crazy. I remarked at the end of it that it reminded me of the fourth quarter of the Outback Bowl. Something was always happening. Five touchdowns, four turnovers, a missed field goal, and a touchdown in the forbidden end zone. While the pace of the game certainly settled down after that, the stadium was electric for the entire first hour.
The obvious criticism of the Cats was the run defense. To say that this was a poor effort was an understatement – the Cats missed 31 tackles. I was sitting in the “good” end zone and watched the majority of the game throguh binoculars. It seemed like every play for Illinois a big hole opened up and suddenly Lushoure came marching through.
So what happened? A unit by unit look explains a lot. The Defensive Line accounted for six of the team’s seven tackles for loss. So it is hard to say that they were not being aggressive and getting off blocks – in fact, a large amount of the missed tackles were DL tackles in the backfield. But perhaps they were being too aggressive and allowing the holes to be opened. Basically each play then became a crapshoot, where the Illini back was either going to get hit in the backfield or open up a big gain, because…
The Linebackers were nowhere to be found. NU’s linebackers only recorded one tackle for loss and were consistantly out of position the entire game. The Illini OC said that they noticed that the NU linebackers were overpersuing at the snap, which was opening up cutback lanes. And that’s what they did all day: handoff to Lushoure, two steps left, cut back right, run through the gaping hole. On the option runs, NU often only had one man covering two. And when two backers were covering the play, they did not contain the pitch man.
Of all the ways that NU could have lost this game, the lack of a run defense was the last thing that I would have ever considered to be the reason. And the pass defense, while not really needed, played more than effectively. Illinios ran 14 pass plays, completing sic, with two interceptions, three passes broken up, and three QB hurries. Clearly the Illinois spreak offense had an effect on this as NU consistantly had to play three corners and two safeties, leaving only six big men to cover the run. Maybe putting a safety on a receiver and adding a LB would have helped – but we will never know.
In the end, on the defensive side, Illinois ran 84 plays to NU’s 48 and had the ball for almost 42 minutes. As one fan said in the concourse after the game, “Dan Persa don’t play defense.” Even Danny boy could not have helped the Cats out of this one.
The Offensive, under the circumstances, was not horrible. And the running game was actually quite effective. Mike Trumpy had the longest NU run since 1983. But he also averaged more than four yards per carry on his other 12 runs. Adonis Smith avergaged 6.7 yards. After you take out the three sacks, Watkins scrambled four times for 31 yards. And Kain Colter ran three times, two for first downs. While 48 plays is hardly enough time to develop an offense, NU only ran 25 true running plays (i.e., not counting sacks). But, taking out the long Trumpy run, the Cats averaged 4.95 yards per carry on the other 24 runs. But the Cats only ran the ball three plays in a row once in the entire game – on the second drive of the game. Everyone expected that NU would need to run the ball well in order to stay in the game. The problem was that they did run the ball well, but never got a chance to stay in control.
The passing game was about what we could have expected out of the situation. Once Evan Watkins go the nerves out of his system he played pretty well, demonstrating a nice arm at times. The first five pass plays were knocked-down pass, sack/fumble, 13 yard game, incompletion, interception. After that, Watkins was 9 for 16 for 119 yards, one TD, no picks. This would be good first half statistics. Unfortunately, the Cats did not run enough plays to see this play out. Watkins demonstrated that the Cats have something a little different to look forward to in 2012. My early prediction is that Evan develops quite well in December and comes out poised and ready to lead the team in its bowl game.
A few notes on the special teams. We finally got a chance to see Venric Mark really run – and even though you cannot like the fumble on the play, he broke tackles and made people miss – and almost scored in the forbidden zone. Demos looked pretty solid, but could not get a good kickoff into the steady east-west wind.
The gametime atmosphere was hard to describe. Gameday got NU students out of bed and into Wrigleyville by 5:00 a.m. Sheffield transformed into a portable Wildcat Alley. The bars and restaurants were packed and house parties popped up all over the neighborhood. It was, as Jim Phillips described his vision, a Bowl game in Chicago.
So what is the effect? NU stated that the goal of this game is to increase ticket sales in Evanston. This plan has been criticized because most outsiders assume that this means that NU hopes to convert fans. I believe that this is not the case. The point is to motivate existing fans.
Case in point, the most highly attended non-conference game since 1995 was the 1998 game against Duke, where NU lost 44-10. The game drew more than 41,000. This fact alone disproves a number of the myths about Northwestern attendance. It was a game in September on, by all accounts and my memory, a nice day; it was a non-conference game; it was against a bad opponent; it was an opponent that was not close enough to bring a large contingent of its own, and it was a bad NU team. My point being is that there are NU fans out there. The Athletic Department does not need to create new fans, it needs to motivate the existing fan base.
So did this work? Time will tell, and I can only speak from my own observations. I saw college friends who live in the Chicago area who I do not normally see at games. But more importantly, in addition to my trip from Canton, Ohio, I had friends in from New York City, Traverse City, MI, Nashville, TN, Austin, TX, St. Paul, MN, and Las Vegas. So to the extent that was the goal – I would say that it was a success.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone, enjoy the turkey and the football and check back on Friday for what will probably be a depressing preview of the Wisconsin game.
Go Cats!
Friday, November 19, 2010
Game Preview: Illinois (5-5) (3-4) at Northwestern (7-3) (3-3)
Saturday November 20, 2010; 2:30 CST (ESPNU; ESPN3 online)
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
 |
| Photo Credit: Chicago Tribune.com |
Safety First: In a shocking bit of news that came across the internet around 11:00 EST, the end zone shown above will be reserved for touchbacks, defensive and special teams touchdowns, and safeties. It appears that after assuring the public that both sides had agreed to the layout of the field, someone balked after viewing the stadium first-hand. There will be finger-pointing and questions unanswered, and this will undoubtedly add to the unique nature of this very unique game. Hopefully, the special adjusted Big Ten Rules, which were announced this morning, will only affect the view of the game, and not the outcome.
This development certainly has the ability to affect fan enjoyment of the game. Especially for those fans in the “right field” seats, who had better hope for a defensive struggle if they want to get their money’s worth out of their admission. But in the end, just like at a Cubs home game, the seats on the first and third base lines will be premium viewing locations for most, if not all, of the scoring. Those hoping to catch a special edition football that sails over the right field wall will be disappointed – as even the strongest wind is unlikely to carry a kickoff onto Addison. Here’s hoping that the oddity of the special rules do not detract from what is surely an important game for both schools.
Northwestern, like it has done in the previous two Novembers, revived its season after a brutal loss by beating #13 Iowa 21-17 last weekend. In doing so, All-Big Ten candidate Dan Persa rekindled the fire of the Cardiac Cats, which seemed to have dwindled this season. Meanwhile, Illinois is coming off two gut-wrenching losses: a 67-65 triple-overtime track meet against Michigan, and a horrible loss to a Minnesota team that had lost nine straight. Illinois combined scores over the last two games is 99-105; so take that for what it is worth.
This is the second year that the in-state rivals will play for the Land of Lincoln Trophy – currently held by Northwestern. Illinois leads the all-time series by a count of 52-46-5; although NU leads 10-5 during the Expect Victory Era. Illinois won the only previous game played between the two at Wrigley Field (then Cubs Park); a 29-0 shutout lead by the legendary Red Grange. This is a series that has had very few surprises in the past, as the team with the better record entering the game has won 11 straight, and 16 out of the last 17 meetings.
Injury Report: Other than the obvious Dan Persa injury, the sheet reads the same as last week. Backup OL Doug Bartels (Shoulder) and ?th-string running back Jacob Schmidt (Ankle) are both listed as questionable. For Illinois, backup CB Terry Hawthorne (Foot) is questionable. LB Evan Frierson was dismissed from the team due to his trouble with the law. Thanks to Collegeinjuryreport.com for the update.
Weather Report: Cold but dry. High of 44, low of 38, which we may see once the sun goes down after halftime. Light winds up to 12 mph coming in from center field. See Weather.com for details, and dress warm.
When Northwestern has the ball:
Players to Watch
Evan Watkins: What to think about this? Evan Watkins is a big kid. At 6’6”, 245, he is 10 pounds heavier than Terrell Pryor and 5 pounds lighter than Cam Newton (at the same height as both). He can run, but not fast. So expect to see more Tim Tebow than what we have been used to with Danny. His arm is very strong and he should be able to open up the offense a little more than Persa could if he is given time to throw. Expect the Illini defense to put a lot of pressure on Evan early, especially on passing downs. A big question is whether the Cats will keep up their offensive tempo, or slow down for the benefit of Evan. The Cats ran 82 plays last week, the second most ever by NU in a regulation game. I would expect to see less, especially with the modified sideline sharing.
Corey Liuget (DT): Liuget is a big quick dude at 6’3” 285. He leads the team with 8.5 tackles for loss and is ninth in the Big Ten in both sacks and tackles for loss. His 11 tackles against Michigan State was the highest total by an Illinois DT in 14 years. In a position not generally known for racking up the stats, Liuget is a big force as a run-stopper. The Cats will need to account for him in the middle if it wants to get the run game going – as the loss of Persa’s speed will limit the ability to run the option outside.
Drake Dunsmore: There was a Drake Dunsmore sighting last week in Evanston. The Cats’ Superback, who has suffered through most of the season with injured ribs and tight coverage found his way open for 8 catches and 65 yards and surpassed 1000 yards for his career at NU. Drake will see a lot of coverage from Senior LB Nate Bussey, who will be a far greater challenge than Iowa’s freshman LB last week. Dunsmore’s short routes and ability to run after the catch will be an important outlet for Evan as he gets his feet wet.
In the trenches: NU’s line played very well against Iowa’s front four last week, eventually wearing them down to the point of being completely ineffective. They will not be able to afford to wait that long on Saturday. It will be time to pride-up and protect their young signal-caller. Illinois has a freshman and a sophomore on its D-Line, which has been shredded in the last two weeks. But NU will have to focus its attention on Liuget and Senior DE Clay Nurse.
Overall Impression: An actual quote from the Illinois SID game notes: “Illini defense has history of shutting down high powered offenses”. The first bullet point then goes on to boast about holding Denard Robinson to just 62 yards. No mention of the 67 points that they gave up in that game. NU has scored the first touchdown in each of its 10 games, and I would expect a scripted first series designed to do the same. But from that point on Evan will need to do the heavy lifting. I would expect one big mistake and two little ones from Evan – it will be how the team responds that will make the difference.
When Illinois has the ball:
Nathan Scheelhaase (QB): Scheelhaase is a contender for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, and for good reason. This was an Illinois team that was not expected to do much, and after a slow start, Scheelhaase lead the team to solid wins over PSU and Purdue, two teams that beat Northwestern. Illinois does not throw the ball much; it has passed for more than 200 yards only four times this year, but in each of the last three games. The run-pass ratio is often 2-1. But Scheelhaase runs an efficient offense: they score off turnovers, convert third downs, and when they make mistakes, they are not big ones. NU’s goal needs to be to force Scheelhaase to beat them with his arm.
NU Linebackers: The bottom line is that if NU wants to win this game, they are going to need to stop the Illini running game. And that means the linebacker corps are going to need to step up. Quentin Davie and Nate Williams are playing their last game in front of a friendly crowd, and they need to put on a show. Putting pressure on the run game and keeping contain on the short passes. A failure in this department means an NU loss.
Mikel Leshoure (RB): Leshoure, even more than Scheelhaase, has been the biggest surprise for the Illini this season. He has six 100-yard games, and is 2nd in the Big Ten, 14th Nationally in rushing yards. He is a fast and powerful runner – much like what the Cats saw out of Adam Robinson last week. The Cats would be well served trying to be aggressive against Leshoure, because he can get 4-6 yard gains all day.
In the Trenches: Illinois O-Line is significantly larger than what the Cats faced against Iowa last week, so the NU line is going to need to put on its Big Boy pants tomorrow. They are the primary reason for the Illini rushing attack. NU’s D-Linemen will need to keep the Illini from getting their blockers to the second level and breaking big gains for Leshoure. In passing situation, NU should be able to create trouble for Scheelhaase, but need to contain, for he is a running threat as well.
Overall Impression: Lost in the Illini defense giving up 105 points over the last 14 days is the fact that the offense scored 99 points in the same two games. It is doubtful that Illinois has the firepower to hang 40 on the Cats, but 28-35 points are not out of the question if the Cats cannot stop the run. With a rookie QB, the Cats cannot afford a shootout.
Intangibles: The Cats are playing for Persa and to protect their new guy, Evan. The Illini are playing for their bowl eligibility and to protect their coach, Zook. This will be a circus atmosphere, and each team will need to contain their emotion and focus on the game. The team that remembers that the field is still 100 yards long, just like the gym back in Hickory, will be the team that will prevail.
Bottom Line: The Cats game plan from last week, to wear down the defense will not work tomorrow. They cannot afford to rely on Evan to lead a comeback. Everyone will need to step up and do their part for the Cats – Watkins can afford a few mistakes – but no one else can. The Illini need to avoid the meltdown that everyone expects to happen. Something has to give, but the Cats prevail – in a close one.
Cats win 23-20.
Go Cats!
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Cats – Illini prepare for Historic Wrigley Matchup – and Big Ten Rankings
The corner of Sheffield and Addison should have a carnival feel on Saturday, that which is normally reserved for a January Bowl game. Here is your quick primer on preparing for Saturday, along with an Evan Watkins update and some other news and notes.
 |
| Photo Credit: Chicagotribune.com |
First, if you have not seen the pictures of Wrigley Field decked out in purple, read no further and go to NuSports.com now. But come back and read the rest of course. Yes, the famous red Cubs marquis is painted purple. Yes, there are dozens of purple and white ‘N’ flags donning the stadium. And yes, there is a giant “N-Wildcat” painted just about where the right field grass would meet the infield dirt. If these pictures do not get you excited for Saturday, nothing will.
The dimensions of the friendly confines have taken some hits this week as the media has questioned the safety of two points on the field. First off, there is a section of the east end zone which is literally 18 inches from the right field wall. The Cubs have installed what appears to be a six-inch pad, painted with ivy and the Allstate logo. But to give you a visual idea of the space, the goalposts have been attached directly to the outfield wall. I can certainly understand the safety concern, but I do not know that it will affect the game as much as it is being discussed. There appears to be only about 5 feet on either side of the, nonexistent, goalpost which is encroached by the wall – before the wall tapers back on either side. Players are already trained to avoid the goalpost itself; this is just a slightly larger target. According to Teddy Greenstein with the Trib., both coaches signed off on these dimensions prior to agreeing to play the game.
In my mind the larger concern is the northwest corner of the west endzone. There is a small section of field box seats between what would be the Cubs dugout and their bullpen. The seats are protected by the famous brick wall, and thus immovable. A tight corner route to that corner could take a receivers legs out, quickly, if he is not careful. At least the right field wall is high enough to be seen.
Kudos to the Northwestern Athletic Department for doing this game justice. This could have very easily been just a game at Wrigley Field. But the AD has truly embraced the concept of “Chicago’s Big Ten team” and turned this into a major event – complete with Wildcat Alley on Sheffield beginning at 10:00 a.m. and not closing until 10:00 p.m.
Fortunately, thanks to a rather bland college football weekend, and apparently NU’s win over Iowa, ESPN is bringing its mobile pregame show to the McDonalds parking lot across from the Stadium. The set will open to students at 5:00 a.m. and alumni at 5:30 – before later opening to fans in general. The show will begin on ESPNU at 8:00 CST, before being picked up by ESPN at 9:00 CST. Get to the set by 10:45 to get the final breakdown of the Land of Lincoln game – and see if Lee Corso dons Willie’s head piece. While there are obviously dozens of game for the Worldwide Leader to talk about on Saturday, this is a great opportunity for NU to be broadcast to the entire country for three hours.
NuSports.com has a special page of FAQs updated for this week – including information on GameDay. Also, the Trib has a great news page on their website dedicated to the game. Mother Nature looks like she is going to cooperate on Saturday, with cold, but dry weather. So make sure to make your way out to Wrigleyville on Saturday – even if you do not have a ticket.
Interestingly there are competing views on whether this is truly a once-in-a-lifetime event. The Cubs have made it clear that they would like to open the stadium for NU and Illinois to host their game there annually (this would be impossible in 2011 because the game is scheduled in October, when the Cubs, conceivably, could still be playing). NU has said publically that they intend for this to be a one-time deal. And Illinois has reported that they do not intend to give up a home game to travel to Chicago. But I am certain that if the Cubs could get a permanent sponsor and some guaranteed money, the schools might reconsider this position. In case you are wondering, while technically, all of the tickets were sold through the NU ticket office (except for the typical allotment to the visiting team), reports are that the fan split should be around 70-30, maybe 65-35 in favor of NU.
NU is going to learn a lot about its long-term future on Saturday as Evan Watkins, the quarterback of the 2012-2013 Wildcats is suddenly the QB of today. Teddy Greenstein reports that Watkins does not lack confidence. Having too much confidence can be a good thing and a bad thing. It can lead to an amazing debut – for instance, C.J. Bacher’s first half against MSU in 2006 in his first start. But it can also lead to interceptions, poor decisions, and a complete evisceration of that confidence. I think that we can assume that Evan is going to make a few mistakes on Saturday. It will be how he and his teammates react to those mistakes that will make the difference in the game.
It is no secret that Fitz’s Wildcats have not played well when they are either ranked or the center of attention. This week they will be both. Tina Akouris reports that the Cats are focused and ready to take on the challenge this Saturday. This has been a roller coaster season for the Cats. I think that most fans and followers of NU would admit that 8-4 and a mid-level bowl game was the height of their expectations for 2010 (it certainly was my prediction). Now that eight wins is in the Cats sights, fans are starting to come around to the fact that while this was a season of disappointments, it is also a season of achievement and growth for the Cats.
Big Ten Power Rankings and Bowl Projections:
Once again, rankings are based on performance; Bowl Projections are based on where I think they will be in two weeks.
1 Wisconsin (Rose): The win against Indiana was a little much, but they proved their point. Wisconsin should roll to Pasadena.
2 Ohio State (Sugar): Will face an angry Iowa team Saturday. Here is a hint, just get their D-Line tired, you should be fine.
3 Michigan State (Capital One): Their meltdown in Iowa City was their one mistake – but still a great season for green and white.
4 Iowa (Outback): Not certain about this ranking. Certainly belong ahead of NU on talent, but on conditioning, mental toughness and heart?
5 Northwestern (Insight): Certainly got its season back on track. Can they continue their run of strong finishes?
6 Penn State (Gator): Barring a complete fail against Indiana, will secure this New Year’s Day slot for what might be Joe Pa’s swan song.
7 Michigan (Texas): Michigan will limp into the Bowl season with two humbling losses – a reminder of how far they still have to come.
8 Illinois (TicketCity): No one is praying for a BCS at large spot more than Illinois, who faces a trip to Detroit otherwise.
9 Purdue: Played well against Michigan, but needs to get healthy and regroup.
10 Indiana: After two valiant efforts at home, was embarrassed by Wisconsin.
11 Minnesota: A nice-heartfelt win, and I am happy for Weber that they accomplished that. But this program has a long way to go.
Go Cats!
Monday, November 15, 2010
Bittersweet Victory
In a ten minute span, Dan Persa single-handedly gave new hope to the Wildcat season and re-opened the door, slightly, to a New Year’s Day Bowl game. But he paid a mighty price for his play, which both made Persa a martyr and thrust #25 Northwestern back into the national spotlight.
First, my bold statement of the day. Northwestern and Iowa is the best rivalry in the Big Ten over the last 10 years, and it will only continue to get better. With the small exception of a few Bielema-esque blowouts by Iowa, every game has been close and meant something to either or both teams. Iowa fans have finally gotten over the “just Northwestern” stereotype of this game; making it must see TV for fans of both schools now. Additionally, with both teams now competing annually for the West-ish Division Title, the games will take on even more meaning. No other matchup in the Big Ten has provided as many thrills over the last ten years – not even OSU-Michigan.
Fitz was cited this week by Adonis Smith, who is gaining an odd reputation for talking out of turn, for saying that he hates Iowa. He, of course, deflected the comment publically. But in his off-the-field interview with Sam Valenzisi after the first half, he screamed in the voice of a man on a mission, “there are no moral victories in red-letter games.” Yes, Iowa does mean more to NU, and this goes back to the early years of the Expect Victory Era. Gary Barnett always said that NU should strive as a program to be as successful as Iowa – a reasonable goal, which did not raise the expectations to the level of OSU, Michigan, or PSU – but to a level where wins are expected, but still appreciated by a fan base that is loyal through thick and thin. Randy Walker, and now Fitz have continued this mantra, and today Iowa is a “red-letter game.”
Like him or not, I have some new-found respect for Kirk Ferentz after Saturday. In the handshake after the game, you could specifically hear him ask Fitz how Persa was doing. This was a class move for Ferentz, who could have easily done the typical shake and turn. The mutual respect that Fitz and this team have gained across the conference is infectious.
Which brings us to the obvious: Dan Persa’s achilles. It is one of those injuries that truly only occurs on a freak play, like the one we all saw on Saturday. But Persa’s surgery was “textbook” and he is scheduled to be at full strength by late spring. Teddy Greenstein reports in the Trib about the status of the situation. Also, you can follow a humorous (or humerus perhaps?) account of the recovery at www.twitter.com/dannysachilles. For what it is worth, Persa was named the Walter Camp National Player of the Week for his performance and finishes the season as the Big Ten’s all time leader in completion percentage for a season.
So who is Evan Watkins, and do the Cats stand a chance? He is described as having great speed "for a guy his size", but will certainly not be as quick as Persa. He can throw on the run pretty well and he rushed for 750 yards in 24 high school games. He is 6'6" 245 -- which is 5 lbs. lighter than Cam Newton and 10 lbs. heavier than Terrell Pryor (both 6’6”); so yes, he is an enormous man. Our offense is pretty plug and play for quick passes, so as long as he is at least competent with reading defenses, that should work. Other than the 3rd&11 against IU, he has not completed a pass yet that was needed. He also threw a brutal pass into double coverage on the next drive. Evidently, Evan has a strong arm, but less touch, which may open up the vertical game in a way NU has not experimented with this year. All in all, it sounds like Evan is more similar to Mike Kafka than Persa.
In short, one of the biggest advantages is that Illinois has absolutely no film on Watkins (think Kafka vs. Minnesota 2008). I would look for a few Newton/Tebow-style planned runs early to get him comfortable with the hits and the carries and also to open up Trumpy and the intermediate passing game. I would also look for more read-option instead of straight run-option like NU has been doing (with limited success). As long as the defense keeps the Cats within a touchdown, I would look for a pretty tight playbook until at least mid-way through the fourth quarter; both to get his confidence raised and also to limit the film on him in the event that the Cats win easily. Obviously, Fitz and McCall will have to open things up if the Cats are down or close in the second half. Good luck Evan!
In case anyone is wondering, McCall is preparing both true freshman QB’s, Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian, to serve in the backup role should something happen to Evan.
Which brings me, finally, to the game itself. Without question, the defense played admirably and finally played tough for the entire game. I would attribute the Iowa scores to a matter of, “it was bound to happen eventually,” rather than any sort of systemic lapse of focus. The Cats missed an opportunity to stop Iowa on fourth day which led to the first half field goal. Iowa’s first touchdown was set up by a pass to McNutt; Iowa literally ran the same play from the same formation – just to the opposite side for the touchdown. So there were definitely some coverage issues for the Cats that the Hawks were exploiting. Similarly, the DJK touchdown was one-on-one coverage with no safeties – and a four-man rush. What the other six defenders were doing at the time is unknown.
Fitz has gone on record as saying that the reason for his success against Iowa has been the turnover battle. Well, that was not the case Saturday, as the turnovers were even. Instead, NU’s defense just outplayed Iowa’s offense in the end. The run defense was suffocating at times, and more than adequate at others. Stanzi made a terrible play by throwing the pick to Peters, but Peters still had to be there to make the play. More than anything, the defense finished for the first time all year. What do Vandy, Rice, CMU, Purdue, MSU and Indiana all have in common? They all scored on their last (legitimate) possession against the Cats defense. Congrats on not adding Iowa to that list.
The offense was as efficient as it could have been given the talent of Iowa’s defense. It did have a missed FG, a brutal tipped interception, and two many drops. It also had drives stalled by an illegal touching and an intentional grounding – both of which were good calls, but it was highly entertaining to hear Fitz yelling at the refs – “you guys have been terrible all day.” But NU scored the first touchdown of the game for the 10th game in a row and obviously made the two touchdown drives when it mattered. Kudos to the team for making it a great Senior Day game.
Iowa has to be the biggest disappointment of the Big Ten this year. At 7-3, they are looking 8-4 square in the face; in a year where they were an outside contender for a National Championship. When Stanzi threw the interception, the team looked like it had already lost – and it had a 10-point lead. It was almost as if Stanzi went for the kill shot on that pass because the team had nothing left.
And Iowa’s defense, supposedly full of future NFL talent is an absolute fraud. The Linebacker, #44, James Morris was getting burnt all day – but why was he covering NU’s wideouts? The DBs were giving NU tons of cushion – apparently, to guard against our dangerous vertical attack. And the defensive line should lose their scholarships. If their DE’s cannot play for 60 minutes, they do not deserve to be out there. The team should be ashamed of its conditioning program, because that was one of the primary reasons that the NU scoring drives were so easy. On draft day, rather than showing clips of Adrian Clayborn sacking quarterbacks and blocking punts, Mel Kiper should show clips of him kneeling on the sidelines and keeping the hair out of his face while his mates were letting their Big Ten Title chances slip through their fingers.
Finally, cheers to the Seniors who had big days in their final appearance at Ryan Field:
· Sidney Stewart – 5 catches, 46 yards.
· Nate Williams – 5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 pass broken up, 1 QB hurry
· Justan Vaughn – 4 tackles
· Quentin Davie – 4 tackles
So, what does all of this mean for the Bowl picture? While this win opened up a few more doors to New Year’s Day, winning this game means almost nothing when it comes to Bowl selection – as NU is likely still going to Texas to play in either the Texas Bowl or the TicketCity.com Bowl (formerly the Dallas Football Classic). Why?
Assume that Iowa (OSU, Minny) and NU both finish out 1-1. Iowa, despite having the same overall record and the head-to-head loss, will have a better conference record than NU – thus justifying the fourth bowl slot. Assume PSU also finishes 1-1 (Indiana, MSU). They will also get picked ahead of NU because of the same conference record and the head-to-head victory, notwithstanding the worse head-to-head record – not to mention the potential to host Joe Paterno’s last game. Assume Michigan loses out (Wisconsin, OSU). They would have a worse conference record and overall record, but is certainly the sexier team, especially given that they have not been bowling in two years. The lack of a head-to-head will hurt NU in this situation. In other words, NU gets pushed down to seventh, which is where they would have been had they never beaten Iowa to begin with.
But here is where is gets messed up. What if all of the above happen, except NU beats Wisconsin. The Big Ten would then only score one team in the BCS and the Gator Bowl would have its pick of Iowa (8-4, 5-3), NU (9-3, 5-3), PSU (8-4, 5-3), and Michigan (7-5, 3-5). As a brand new Bowl game for the Big Ten, it has its pick of the litter – but the one person that it may never have a chance to host again is Joe Paterno – and I think that this is the direction it will go. NU would then, likely, end up in Tempe for the Insight bowl. Really the only hope for a “big” NYD game is a complete 0-2 meltdown by both Iowa and PSU.
There is a ton more to talk about this week with the Land of Lincoln game, Wrigley Field, ESPN Gameday and more Bowl prediction talk. So keep checking up on EVR!
Go Cats!
Friday, November 12, 2010
Game Preview: #13 Iowa (7-2) (4-1) at Northwestern (6-3) (2-3)
Saturday November 13, 2010; 11:00 CST (ESPN)
Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois
Northwestern is coming off an absolute meltdown in State College, handing Joe Paterno his 400th career victory after taking a seemingly commanding 21-0 first half lead. Iowa was horribly unimpressive in its last game at Indiana; needing a dropped pass in the end zone to preserve an 18-13 win. Iowa leads the all-time series against Northwestern 46-22-3, based primarily on a 21-year win streak from 1974-1994. Northwestern is 8-5 against Iowa during the Expect Victory Era. In 2007, Iowa won the last meeting in Evanston, 28-17, in a game that NU lead going into the fourth quarter. The last time NU beat Iowa at home was 2005.
The Northwestern and Iowa matchup has evolved into one of the more under-rated rivalries in the Big Ten. Many of the games have been close, six of the last 11 have been within one touchdown and all but three of the last 13 have been within two touchdowns. Additionally, in two infamous games, Iowa kept NU from advancing to the Rose Bowl in 2000, while NU kept Iowa from winning a co-Big Ten Title with its win last year. This rivalry will now be assured of continuing on an annual basis as the two teams will be placed in the same division in the new Big Ten alignment.
It can be safely said that both teams have been a disappointment for their fans this season. After a 5-0 start, NU has lost three of its last four games and will either need to upset #13 Iowa or #5 Wisconsin to equal its win total from last year. Meanwhile, Iowa began the season in the Top Ten and had a schedule that included its four toughest Big Ten games at home. But an early loss to Arizona and a last-minute loss to Wisconsin have the Hawks on the outside looking in at this point in time. Both team still can turn their season around, and with some help, can meet their fans’ collective expectations – but for each team that will require a win on Saturday.
Finally, this is Senior Day for 12 NU players. NU has won its last six Senior Day matchups, including the 2005 win against Iowa. As I said yesterday, this is one of the most successful senior classes in NU history, and these players will be missed by Cat fans: Corbin Bryant, Lee Coleman, Quentin Davie, Stefan Demos, Keegan Grant, John Henry Pace, Josh Rooks, Stephen Simmons, Sidney Stewart, Andrew Struckmeyer, Justan Vaughn, and Nate Williams. Good luck in your future guys!
Injury Report: NU continues to keep a relatively clean injury sheet this season. Backup OL Doug Bartels (Shoulder) and ?th-string running back Jacob Schmidt (Ankle) are both listed as questionable.
Iowa has a ridiculous four running backs listed on the Collegeinjuryreport.com injury list. Brandon Wegher has been out all year with off-the-field issues, while Jewel Hampton (Knee) and Jason White (Knee) are both out for the year. Adam Robinson suffered a concussion against MSU and sat out against Indiana. He is listed as questionable. Marcus Coker will get the carries in his place if Robinson cannot start; he gained 129 yards against Indiana. Also of significance is offensive Tackle Adam Gettis, who started against Wisconsin and MSU, but missed last week with and Ankle injury. He is listed as questionable, but is not on Iowa’s two-deep. The Hawks will also be without linebacker Tyler Neilsen, who started eight games for Iowa before injuring his neck – he is out for the season.
Weather Report: Kinda crappy. 58 degrees at kickoff; 50% chance of rain; 15 mph winds. Winds will be out of the SSE for those keeping track. See Weather.com for up to date details.
When Northwestern has the ball:
Players to Watch
Dan Persa: Persa has seen this movie before. After a meltdown loss to his childhood team, Danny toes the line against a defense comprised of future NFL talent, hell-bent on a Big Ten title. He will need to be more like Scott Tolzien and less like Kirk Cousins (i.e., do not turn the ball over) tomorrow to produce a similar result to last year. Iowa’s pass defense has been decent, allowing anywhere from 200-250 in every Big Ten game, except for 300+ against Michigan. But Iowa rakes in the interceptions, recording 14, including three in three separate games. Iowa’s pass efficiency defense is 14th in the country. Persa will want to pick on Micah Hyde, who is the baby of the Iowa secondary, as a true sophomore.
Adrian Clayborn (DE): If you have not heard of this guy, you are not paying attention. At 6’4”, 285 pounds, he is NFL prototype and is quick and strong. Clayborn has 2.5 sacks, 3.5 more tackles for loss, four QB hurries, a forced fumble and a blocked punt. In other words, he will need to be accounted for on every down. NU had trouble keeping Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan out of the backfield last month. It will need to improve on this significantly if it wants to move the ball.
Jeremy Ebert: Ebert reminded the country why he is one of the top receivers in the Big Ten during the last two weeks, after being relatively quiet during the Purdue and MSU games. Ebert is a ball hawk and will find open spaces in the defense. If the O Line can keep Persa upright, Ebert should have a lot of receptions; but Ebert will be counted on for some YAC if the Cats want to have any explosion play potential.
In the trenches: This is the best front four NU will see all season. All of them could end up in the NFL. The Cats took a step backwards in their offensive line play during the second half last week, after playing reasonably well against MSU and Indiana. They will need to play their best game of the year for the Cats to have a prayer.
Overall Impression: For a defense that is supposed to be all-world, this is a unit that has had lapses against both Wisconsin and Michigan. When the NU offense is working, it is at least as good as either of those teams. NU will literally need the stars to align in order to score in the 20s, however. If it cannot, it will once again need to count on the defense to perform.
When Iowa has the ball:
Ricky Stanzi (QB): Stanzi was infamously put out of last year’s affair and with it the hopes of Iowa playing for a National Championship. He will come into this game with a mindset of unfinished business. He has the most explosive wide receiver tandem in the conference at his disposal and will be facing an NU defensive backfield that is playing without fire and without confidence. It would certainly be improper to suggest that Stanzi would need to get injured again for NU to stop this machine, but it will take some rain soaked throws and an interception or two to keep the defenders from being burned. Stanzi has gone well over 200 yards in each game except MSU and ISU when the Iowa leads did not require him to throw any longer. Unless the weather makes passing impossible, he will approach 300 against the Cats.
Justan Vaughn: As the lone Senior in beleaguered Cat defensive backfield, it is time for Justan to step up and be heard. Coach Fitz publically called out his play this week and he will need to respond in order for the Cats to survive the Iowa passing assault. NU has done a decent job all year of keeping the passing game in front of them, but Iowa does not play that way, and neither does Wisconsin. Justan’s legacy in the defensive backfield can be rewritten in the next three weeks – but it needs to start tomorrow; because…
Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (WR): DJK is one of the most feared wide receivers in the Big Ten. I saw this kid play in high school and was impressed back then (when former Notre Dame DB Kyle McCartney was his QB). But he has advanced leaps and bounds into a future NFL receiver. DJK only has 36 catches, but eight touchdowns. He is Stanzi’s go-to guy to score touchdowns.
In the Trenches: Perhaps the only place where NU has a decided advantage in this game is against Iowa’s offensive line. Of course Iowa grows offensive linemen next to the corn and soybeans, but this crop is a little small and a lot young (two sophomores). Look for NU to pressure the ends of the Iowa line to put more pressure on Stanzi, especially using Quentin Davie as a pass rusher into Stanzi’s face. NU should be able to keep the Iowa running attack relatively at bay.
Overall Impression: While the Iowa offense is far from all-world, it knows how to score points and, more importantly, knows how to hold onto a lead. NU has not been able to turn the ball over as much as it did during the first five games, and the opponents’ offensive statistics have increased as a result. Coach Fitz has gone on record as saying that the one constant among the recent NU wins against Iowa has been the turnover margin. That trend will need to continue for the Cats to have a chance.
Intangibles: Senior Day has always been a special day at Ryan Field; as the team tends to play inspired ball for its elders. Also, as mentioned above, there is a lot on the line for both schools as they attempt to re-attain some of their pre-season expectations. There is also the revenge factor, as Iowa seeks to take back what NU took from Iowa City last season. I would call the intangibles a push, with how each team reacts to the weather as the wild card (I feel like I say that for every home game?).
Bottom Line: The Cats will need to pitch a perfect game to win this matchup. Iowa has too much at stake and they are not going to look past this Northwestern team, which has given them fits in the past. The Cats are able to squeak in some scores on a few defensive lapses, but in the end the Stanzi to DJK combination is too much for the Wildcats.
Iowa wins 27-17.
Go Cats! Prove Me Wrong!
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Quick News and Notes and Big Ten Rankings
For starters, it is Senior Day. This college tradition has given the Cats a lot of good fortune over the last seven years as NU has not lost a Senior Day matchup since 2003. The Cats have also won its last two games against Iowa on Senior Day. The Trib does a nice piece on the NU Seniors and their successes in Evanston. Skip also focuses on the fond memories of Ryan Field for the 12 graduating NU Seniors.
The Sun Times has a good story on the “other number 7”, Hunter Bates and preparation for the Iowa game. Hunter has really come on to have a nice season and plays well as a rover in the defensive backfield. His sack and forced fumble of Robert Bolden was a key play in NU gaining the early lead against Penn State last week – and Bolden’s inability to pick up the shifty Bates was a primary reason that he was lifted from the game. Bates is one of the few DBs that NU uses that can play a cover safety and blitz the QB. And while his punt return attempts will continue to be replaced by Venric Mark, he provides a nice alternative in that game as well.
But for all of the “flush it out” talk coming from the team, leave it to the student paper to be absolutely direct. The Daily Northwestern blames the Cats three losses on three critical quarters, and focuses on NU’s ability, especially on defense, to play for an entire 60 minutes. In the three quarters highlighted in this piece (4th vs. Purdue; 4th vs. MSU; 3rd v. PSU), NU has been outscored 49-3. NU had combined leads of 45 points against these teams. Just makes you want to poop.
In order to win Saturday, the Cats need to do more than flush out the bad blood from the three losses. They need to focus for an entire 60 minutes, which is something that this team has not done yet this year. There are many things that this team has done well – in all aspects of the game. But in addition to the three quarters mentioned above, there is a quarter in every other game where the Cats were absolutely flat. Fitz will need to dig deep in his motivational bag of tricks to get off this limp horse and continue the run of Senior Day magic.
Big Ten Power Rankings and Bowl Projections
Note that the rankings are based on performance thus far to date; while bowl projections are based on where I think the team will be at the end of the season.
1 Wisconsin: Still has the two best wins of any team in the conference; and no major challenges along the way. (Rose)
2 Ohio State: Has not won a game where it has been tested, but has had two weeks to gear up for the final stretch. (Capital One)
3 Iowa: Should be 4 based on on-field performance, but hard to put them below MSU. (Gator)
4 Michigan State: Could very well finish 11-1 and out of the BCS – probably does not belong there anyway. (Outback)
5 Penn State: The forgotten team is suddenly on a 3-game streak and riding a wave of emotion. (Insight)
6 Northwestern: Will finish middle of the pack with a win over Illinois. But best bet to upset either Iowa or Wisconsin. (Dallas Classic)
7 Michigan: Will not finish strong, losing their last two games – which will mean they lost 5 of their last 7. But the Michigan name will give them the nod over NU (Texas)
8 Illinois: This is the mystery team in the mix. Not sure if they are good, bad, lucky, or just poorly coached. (Pizza)
9 Indiana: Has shown some life over the last three weeks after a handful of big losses. Still needs to upset either Wisconsin or Penn State to make a bowl game.
10 Purdue: I guess the win at Northwestern was an upset after all.
11 Minnesota: Oh, I’m sorry, I forgot you were here. You may go now.
Go Cats!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)